So that it remains clear: AMLO, in a political rally for his presidency in Tala, Jalisco, said he had "no dispute" (or perhaps, "quarrel," "issue" - the word is pleito) with religious groups:
"I have no dispute at all with the hierarchies of the catholic church, or of any other."
He is, of course, again hoping for the goodwill of the Catholic Church, just like in 2006, when he notoriously refused to commit to any "hot" topics such as abortion rights, the morning after pill, or euthanasia, telling the church he would put this up for vote for his vaunted "people" - as if were something that should simply be decided by majority vote. As mayor of Mexico City, he actively fought against his party's push for abortion and gay rights. While much can be ascribed to the all-encompassing goal of "saving" Mexico through him becoming president, and not put off voters not thrilled with social liberalism, he is in many ways as well a social conservative.
Sunday, July 31, 2011
Who carries out electoral fraud in Mexico? The figures reveal
A very interesting column from Carlos Loret de Mola:
Yes, everyone - PRI, PAN, PRD - is engaging in electoral fraud at some point. Yet according to FEPADE, the unit of the Mexican attorney general's office charged with investigating criminal electoral fraud, there is a clear pattern across Mexico's 32 states over the past years: Since its 1994 creation (as part of electoral institution reform), FEPADE has detected 10,227 fraudulent acts. 50 percent of these acts were committed by the PRI, 30 by the PAN, and 20 by the PRD.
What would be even more interesting than the raw percentages would be to divide the # of frauds over the units governed, but that will have to wait.
Yes, everyone - PRI, PAN, PRD - is engaging in electoral fraud at some point. Yet according to FEPADE, the unit of the Mexican attorney general's office charged with investigating criminal electoral fraud, there is a clear pattern across Mexico's 32 states over the past years: Since its 1994 creation (as part of electoral institution reform), FEPADE has detected 10,227 fraudulent acts. 50 percent of these acts were committed by the PRI, 30 by the PAN, and 20 by the PRD.
What would be even more interesting than the raw percentages would be to divide the # of frauds over the units governed, but that will have to wait.
Spy scandal! Queretaro law maker's phone tapped
Not too often Queretaro is in the news (and when it is, superb coverage is of course found here), so I couldn't resist this one: Pablo Ademir Castellanos Ramírez, state representative in the local Queretaro legislature, denounced that people from the Government Secretariat had tapped his phone. Not only that, Francisco Hernández Velázquez, a state official, allegedly even told Castellanos to "be careful with what to say when I spoke by telephone, because they had recordings of the phone conversations."
Pretty chilling - a state functionary threatening a law maker, in addition to tapping his phone.
From what I can see, no response from PRI Governor José Calzada Rovirosa to these very serious allegations.
Pretty chilling - a state functionary threatening a law maker, in addition to tapping his phone.
From what I can see, no response from PRI Governor José Calzada Rovirosa to these very serious allegations.
Saturday, July 30, 2011
Disturbing updated figures on rise of poverty in Mexico
Mexico's CONEVAL (Consejo Nacional de Evaluación de la Política de Desarrollo Social) is as official as it gets, and it is in its name: The National Council of the Evaluation of Social Development Policy. It's recent figures on the massive rise in poverty in Mexico are therefore all the more damning, and credible:
There are now at least 52 million poor in Mexico, out of which 11.7 live in extreme poverty.
In percent, poverty went up from 44.5 percent of the population to 46.2 percent in 2010 - more than three million more poor.
And this is real poverty: The number of people who can't even cover sufficiently their daily nutritional needs went from 23.8 to 28 million.
Peña Nieto's Mexico State came out worst, with biggest rise of those in extreme poverty - 200,000 more in these two years - with PRI-led Veracruz and PAN-led Guanajuato close behind.
Calderón's answer to the CONEVAL report was chiefly to blame the international crisis: "It was out of our hands."
There are now at least 52 million poor in Mexico, out of which 11.7 live in extreme poverty.
In percent, poverty went up from 44.5 percent of the population to 46.2 percent in 2010 - more than three million more poor.
And this is real poverty: The number of people who can't even cover sufficiently their daily nutritional needs went from 23.8 to 28 million.
Peña Nieto's Mexico State came out worst, with biggest rise of those in extreme poverty - 200,000 more in these two years - with PRI-led Veracruz and PAN-led Guanajuato close behind.
Calderón's answer to the CONEVAL report was chiefly to blame the international crisis: "It was out of our hands."
Elba Esther Gordillo's monthly salary: 23,900 pesos
I've heard the figure reported before, but a report by Mexico's Secretary of education reports that Elba Esther Gordillo's monthly salary is 23,900 pesos, or about 2000 USD. This, for her official job positions, which is for being a teacher and director of a campus in Neza in Mexico State.
So can anyone explain me, then, how she can be a proprietor of "more than 60 residences, including an apartment in Paris and a house in San Diego"?
So can anyone explain me, then, how she can be a proprietor of "more than 60 residences, including an apartment in Paris and a house in San Diego"?
You spot the difference!
In the picture below, on the left, the proposed new party emblem of the Convergencia party, which this weekend is holding a conference to change its name, leadership, and, yes, logo. On the right, the logo of the "Legitimate Government" of Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO).
Friday, July 29, 2011
Border crossings in southern Mexico drops drastically
Instituto Nacional de Migración (INM), the Mexican immigration institute, reports a huge drop in "irregular" border crossings - from 433,000 to 140,000 in the time span 2005-2010, or around 70 percent, in the south of Mexico.
Does PRI stand a chance in Mexico City?
There's been a few interesting articles in the press recently on the strength of PRI in the Federal District/Mexico City recently. Federal deputy and until a few months ago party president Beatriz Paredes Rangel is a likely candidate for mayor, and keeps fanning the flames that she might be a candidate again, like she was in 2006.
That time, she only came in third with barely 22 percent of the votes. Ever since, however, as El Universal reports, PRI has been growing, and the number of delegations where the party is the second largest (it runs none of Mexico City's 16 delegations, or boroughs) has risen to seven.
High-res graphic here:
Ever since the people of the federal district could choose their own governor - before 1997 the mayor was a "regent" appointed by the President - they have chosen PRD mayors. The PRD struggle with perennial factionalism, and so far there are at least 7 candidates who want to represent the left in the upcoming (July 1, 2012) elections. Given that some clientelistic networks led by René Arce and his brother Víctor Círigo ditched the PRD to join the PRI, if the battle to be the left candidate will be bloody, other defections may come and benefit the PRI.
Yet the PRI remains in a mess, organizationally speaking: It is two years behind in terms of choosing a new party president, and remain as well torn by internal struggles. It is nowhere near even keeping appearances of unity, as the PRI so intensely tries to on the national level. A PRI return in DF, then, even with a Peña Nieto national candidacy, I still see as unlikely.
That time, she only came in third with barely 22 percent of the votes. Ever since, however, as El Universal reports, PRI has been growing, and the number of delegations where the party is the second largest (it runs none of Mexico City's 16 delegations, or boroughs) has risen to seven.
High-res graphic here:
 |
| From El Universal |
Yet the PRI remains in a mess, organizationally speaking: It is two years behind in terms of choosing a new party president, and remain as well torn by internal struggles. It is nowhere near even keeping appearances of unity, as the PRI so intensely tries to on the national level. A PRI return in DF, then, even with a Peña Nieto national candidacy, I still see as unlikely.
Thursday, July 28, 2011
Partido del Trabajo: Marcelo Ebrard is "young and unexperienced"
The latest anecdote piling on top of a mountain of evidence that there is absolutely no way that the Mexican "Workers Party" or PT will abide by its promise to back either Marcelo Ebrard or AMLO for 2012, depending on who is ahead in a national poll both candidate agreed to take:
Alberto Anaya, national president of the party, said that Ebard, age 51, is "very young, and because of this unexperienced" to be president.
Let's see. Before becoming mayor of Mexico City, what was AMLO's legislative or administrative experience? Any government office? Federal deputy? Senator? Local deputy? Mayor?
None. He was head of the Tabasco PRI, then joined the PRD, and was its president 1996-99, before becoming mayor.
In very much related news, the Convergencia party, which despite jumping on board with AMLO is on the verge of electoral extinction, recently suggested to fuse with the PT. Convergencia, to recall, will change its name to Citizens Movement soon, and change its party logo to use the eagle of AMLO's legitimate government. AMLO, in the meantime, has in the past year and a half used all of the PT's federally allotted airtime, to transmit 665,568 ads in radio and television all over the country.
So much for party identity.
Alberto Anaya, national president of the party, said that Ebard, age 51, is "very young, and because of this unexperienced" to be president.
Let's see. Before becoming mayor of Mexico City, what was AMLO's legislative or administrative experience? Any government office? Federal deputy? Senator? Local deputy? Mayor?
None. He was head of the Tabasco PRI, then joined the PRD, and was its president 1996-99, before becoming mayor.
In very much related news, the Convergencia party, which despite jumping on board with AMLO is on the verge of electoral extinction, recently suggested to fuse with the PT. Convergencia, to recall, will change its name to Citizens Movement soon, and change its party logo to use the eagle of AMLO's legitimate government. AMLO, in the meantime, has in the past year and a half used all of the PT's federally allotted airtime, to transmit 665,568 ads in radio and television all over the country.
So much for party identity.
Wednesday, July 27, 2011
IFE's president demands appointment of three missing councilors
OK, not missing as in lost in the wilderness, but for all practical effects, pretty close:
Quite amazingly, given that the 2012 race has all but started, and that IFE will now have considerably more tasks than in 2006, following the 2007-8 electoral reform: The Mexican Chamber of Deputies still has not appointed three new councilors missing on the IFE's general council, following the departure of three many, many months ago - I am not even sure of how long IFE has been operating with only 6 councilors. But what I do know is that this is technically unconstitutional, and that the Chamber of Deputies - and principally PRI, which demands to appoint two out the three - is not doing its job.
IFE president Leonardo Valdés again called on congress to do this as soon as possible, as time is running out - for la grande, the 2012 presidential one, but also 15(!) gubernatorial elections that year. Given the expansions of IFE's functions, they really need all hands on deck here.
Quite amazingly, given that the 2012 race has all but started, and that IFE will now have considerably more tasks than in 2006, following the 2007-8 electoral reform: The Mexican Chamber of Deputies still has not appointed three new councilors missing on the IFE's general council, following the departure of three many, many months ago - I am not even sure of how long IFE has been operating with only 6 councilors. But what I do know is that this is technically unconstitutional, and that the Chamber of Deputies - and principally PRI, which demands to appoint two out the three - is not doing its job.
IFE president Leonardo Valdés again called on congress to do this as soon as possible, as time is running out - for la grande, the 2012 presidential one, but also 15(!) gubernatorial elections that year. Given the expansions of IFE's functions, they really need all hands on deck here.
Chiapas becomes first Mexican state to end the "arraigo"
Following the ratification of 78 municipalities, the state legislature in Chiapas declared an end to the legal arraigo, where citizens may be held without any charges in what is perhaps best translated as "preventive detention," in all its Orwellian glory.
Many human rights organizations have pushed for this, and for it to be extended to other states as well, and with good cause: It completely eliminates the presumption of innocence. The United Nations have also called on Mexico to end this legal practice. Now Chiapas became the first state to do so.
Many human rights organizations have pushed for this, and for it to be extended to other states as well, and with good cause: It completely eliminates the presumption of innocence. The United Nations have also called on Mexico to end this legal practice. Now Chiapas became the first state to do so.
The new fraud: Electoral tourism
El Universal has had some excellent columns as of late, and one of them is Denise Maerker's colum on "New forms of electoral fraud." I remember reading just one story on this subject from Mexico State, and Maerker puts a welcome spotlight on it again: PRI - because all the examples involve the party - is trying out a new method of influencing elections that has so far slipped under the radar screen of electoral authorities.
Simply put: In very competitive elections, with months of anticipation, local communities all of a sudden see a rush of new people moving to the area. They then try to gain residency, get a local voter card, and maintain it just long enough to vote and influence the election result.
The beast has a name: "Electoral tourism." It is far to early to say how widespread it is, and clearly it is a complicated operation that is not pulled off easily. Yet it seems fair to posit, as does Maerker, that this the new electoral fraud.
Almost makes you miss the good ole' vote tacos.
Simply put: In very competitive elections, with months of anticipation, local communities all of a sudden see a rush of new people moving to the area. They then try to gain residency, get a local voter card, and maintain it just long enough to vote and influence the election result.
The beast has a name: "Electoral tourism." It is far to early to say how widespread it is, and clearly it is a complicated operation that is not pulled off easily. Yet it seems fair to posit, as does Maerker, that this the new electoral fraud.
Almost makes you miss the good ole' vote tacos.
Monday, July 25, 2011
AMLO puts the PT back in line - no separate candidacy in Michoacán
To his credit, AMLO will not back a separate Partido del Trabajo (PT) candidate for governor of Michoacán, as many feared: On the contrary, he even offered to put the structure of his MORENA movement at the disposal of PRD's candidate.
I assume he must have come to the conclusion that a loss for the left in Michoacán, thanks to a potential spoiler candidacy of the PT, would have torpedoed his already remote chances in 2012.
I assume he must have come to the conclusion that a loss for the left in Michoacán, thanks to a potential spoiler candidacy of the PT, would have torpedoed his already remote chances in 2012.
New trend in disturbing growth of Mexican poverty: Cities hit worse than countryside
Coneval, Mexico's national council for the evaluation of social policies, found that, not too surprising, poverty has grown a lot in Mexico the past years. While the El Universal article on the data clumsily does not provide any context for its measurements, the absolute figures speak for themselves:
Twenty-three million people, more 20 percent of Mexico's population, do not have sufficient economic resources to ensure basic daily food consumption.
And what is perhaps a surprise: Following the 2008-9 crisis, poverty has grown much more in the cities than in the countryside (see graphic below). That was certainly not the case before - the cities were almost always better off. I hope to get into the report the coming days for some summary findings.
Twenty-three million people, more 20 percent of Mexico's population, do not have sufficient economic resources to ensure basic daily food consumption.
And what is perhaps a surprise: Following the 2008-9 crisis, poverty has grown much more in the cities than in the countryside (see graphic below). That was certainly not the case before - the cities were almost always better off. I hope to get into the report the coming days for some summary findings.
 |
| From El Universal |
Wikileaks 06VATICAN61: Cardinal Juan Sandoval Íñiguez pleaded with U.S. ambassador
No shocker to those well familar with Cardinal Juan Sandoval Íñiguez, one of the absolute most ultra-reactionary and anti-democratic elements within the Mexican catholic church, but a revelation nonetheless:
According to Wikileaks cable 06VATICAN61, Sandoval met with U.S. ambassador to the Vatican, Francis Rooney, in 2006, and asked the U.S. for help in stopping the presidential ambitions of Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who narrowly lost that year's election.
Given Mexican law, this type of political proselytizing is not allowed by the church.
The archdiocese of Guadalajara admitted that a meeting took place, but denies that the cardinal even mentioned AMLO. Perhaps the U.S. embassy personnel are simply making the entire thing up?
(Here is a direct link to the cable, for your reading pleasure - "He asked whether President Bush could help")
Strangely, AMLO seems to think so - his response to the apparent revelation was very muted, saying only that it he doubted it. Is he still, like in 2006, holding out for good relations with the church? Given that Sandoval already in 2006 appeared to see him as a "danger," this seems a lost cause.
According to Wikileaks cable 06VATICAN61, Sandoval met with U.S. ambassador to the Vatican, Francis Rooney, in 2006, and asked the U.S. for help in stopping the presidential ambitions of Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who narrowly lost that year's election.
Given Mexican law, this type of political proselytizing is not allowed by the church.
The archdiocese of Guadalajara admitted that a meeting took place, but denies that the cardinal even mentioned AMLO. Perhaps the U.S. embassy personnel are simply making the entire thing up?
As the Brits are fond of saying: Not bloody likely.
(Here is a direct link to the cable, for your reading pleasure - "He asked whether President Bush could help")
Strangely, AMLO seems to think so - his response to the apparent revelation was very muted, saying only that it he doubted it. Is he still, like in 2006, holding out for good relations with the church? Given that Sandoval already in 2006 appeared to see him as a "danger," this seems a lost cause.
Sunday, July 24, 2011
PAN and PRD reject 2012 - but much talk of a "citizen candidate."
President Felipe Calderón openly rejected the possibility of PAN backing a PRD candidate for 2012, such as Marcelo Ebrard. Marcelo Ebrard essentially says the same thing - that an alliance with PAN is "improbable." Yet Calderón pointedly left the door open for a "citizen candidate," or a person who doesn't belong to either - or any - party.
Two names that frequently appear in this regard are Juan Ramón de la Fuente, and to a lesser extent José Woldenberg - former UNAM and IFE president, respectively.
The PRD also notably contains what one may the "plague on both your houses" group, or a sector that rejects both Marcelo Ebrard and Andrés Manuel López Obrador above all in the ADN party faction. Should things get too nasty in the run-up o the election, this group might gain momentum. And their candidate could be, the aforementioned de la Fuente and Woldenberg.
All speculation, of course, but that is all the rage within all camps in these days of declinations and declarations.
Two names that frequently appear in this regard are Juan Ramón de la Fuente, and to a lesser extent José Woldenberg - former UNAM and IFE president, respectively.
The PRD also notably contains what one may the "plague on both your houses" group, or a sector that rejects both Marcelo Ebrard and Andrés Manuel López Obrador above all in the ADN party faction. Should things get too nasty in the run-up o the election, this group might gain momentum. And their candidate could be, the aforementioned de la Fuente and Woldenberg.
All speculation, of course, but that is all the rage within all camps in these days of declinations and declarations.
Thursday, July 21, 2011
Genovevo Figueroa seeks mayorship of Morelia. And La Tuta and Godoy?
Genovevo Figueroa Zamudio was governor of Michoacán for PRI, switched parties, and was until recently secretary of tourism in beautiful Morelia; he just announced he will seek the mayorship of the city in the upcoming November elections, for the PRD. Morelia is now run by the PRI; its mayor Fausto Vallejo Figueroa also stepped down a while ago to run on as PRI's candidate for governor.
He is hardly an uncontroversial figure: As governor of Michoacán, 1988-1992, he was accused of repressing perredistas in the past.
National PRD leader Jesús Zambrano expressed worry for the upcoming election, given the level of violence in the state. Zambrano said that current Governor Leonel Gody was not informed of the recent massive surge of federal police sent to the state, ostensibly to catch the mafia leader Servando Gómez, "La Tuta." Zambrano earlier demanded the withdrawal of federal forces before the election.
I suspected the real goal was to catch Godoy's half-brother Julio César Godoy Toscano, but according to SIEDO, the case is already closed. This appears quite unbelievable given that he went underground just half a year ago when he lost his immunity as federal legislator, after tapes surfaced of him chatting friendly with said La Tuta.
He is hardly an uncontroversial figure: As governor of Michoacán, 1988-1992, he was accused of repressing perredistas in the past.
National PRD leader Jesús Zambrano expressed worry for the upcoming election, given the level of violence in the state. Zambrano said that current Governor Leonel Gody was not informed of the recent massive surge of federal police sent to the state, ostensibly to catch the mafia leader Servando Gómez, "La Tuta." Zambrano earlier demanded the withdrawal of federal forces before the election.
I suspected the real goal was to catch Godoy's half-brother Julio César Godoy Toscano, but according to SIEDO, the case is already closed. This appears quite unbelievable given that he went underground just half a year ago when he lost his immunity as federal legislator, after tapes surfaced of him chatting friendly with said La Tuta.
It had to happen: AMLO backtracks on the poll to decide PRD candidacy
The news were buried in yet another AMLO story in La Jornada (which appears to cover every speech, every sneeze that me makes) but of no less significance:
Sure, he will respect a poll, as promised, to decide whether he or Ebrard will be the candidate of the left in 2012. BUT - yes, now there is a BUT,
"if the poll is carried out by the members of the mafia of power, and if they only ask their underlings or the employees of the medias of communication, I am going to lose by a landslide."
Step one: Start looking for a way to discredit the poll.
Step two: Have one of your own underlings, René Bejarano, planting the same seeds in public by using almost the very same words - "it's obvious if they only poll people from PAN or PRI, they don't want him"
(which lead Marcelo Ebrard to declare that AMLO doesn't need any spokespersons). He sure does not - just listen to words from the horse's mouth.
Sure, he will respect a poll, as promised, to decide whether he or Ebrard will be the candidate of the left in 2012. BUT - yes, now there is a BUT,
"if the poll is carried out by the members of the mafia of power, and if they only ask their underlings or the employees of the medias of communication, I am going to lose by a landslide."
Step one: Start looking for a way to discredit the poll.
Step two: Have one of your own underlings, René Bejarano, planting the same seeds in public by using almost the very same words - "it's obvious if they only poll people from PAN or PRI, they don't want him"
(which lead Marcelo Ebrard to declare that AMLO doesn't need any spokespersons). He sure does not - just listen to words from the horse's mouth.
Gregorio "Greg" Sánchez released
While still under investigation for ties with drug gangs, money laundering, and human trafficking, Gregorio "Greg" Sánchez was released yesterday, though he is required to wear an electronic bracelet, monitored by satellite, and restricted to not leaving Mexico City - a measure strongly criticized by the PRD (The use of electronic bracelets appear to be a first).
If Sánchez is guilty, it is an amazing display of incompetence from the the prosecutors.
If he is innocent - well, all the worse.
If Sánchez is guilty, it is an amazing display of incompetence from the the prosecutors.
If he is innocent - well, all the worse.
Wednesday, July 20, 2011
Mexico's party leaders - gossip time!
El Universal had recently a very informal survey, one might say, of the heads of Mexico's political parties. For political junkies (whatever that expression really means), it is quite amusing reading. And not quite gossip either - as the information is actually true. Sadly.
We learn that:
- Jorge Kahwagi Macari, until recently PANAL leader, has a 10-million dollar yacht, and lives in a 5,500-meter square house. A true representative of the teachers that comprise the PANAL party, in other words.
- Jorge Emilio González Martínez, the "niño verde,"nominally head of the PVEM, the Mexican Green Party, which is anything but, just took his girlfriend who is half his age (she must be-according to the article, she just finished the preperatoria(!) to Disneyland. And that despite being a party leader, he did not attend or head any political event in 2010. Rather, he goes daily to play tennis in the wealthy Bosque de las Lomas area where he also lives, or to the Sport City in Santa Fe. And he proudly wears the most expensive designer clothes out there, including Brioni Suits. What a genuine representative of the post-materialist Green agenda!-
- Luis Walton Aburto, leader of the nominally left party Convergencia, which all of a sudden threw its lot with AMLO to become a "radical" party, is ultra rich, from owning gas stations and private schools. He also proudly tells us that he gains tons of money. What a great representative of los de abajo, of the downtrodden and poor!
There are those who come significantly better off. Humberto Moreira at least has a good sense of humor; PAN's Gustavo Madero is quite the wine connoisseur, PT's Alberto Anaya is as unpretentious as one can get, with crooked glasses and worn shoes, and PRD's Jesús Zambrano still shops at the corner store in Culhuacán, a very modest zone where he still lives, and likes to drink and play guitar with Carlos Navarrete and Guadalupe Acosta.
What more info does one need? To the polls!
We learn that:
- Jorge Kahwagi Macari, until recently PANAL leader, has a 10-million dollar yacht, and lives in a 5,500-meter square house. A true representative of the teachers that comprise the PANAL party, in other words.
- Jorge Emilio González Martínez, the "niño verde,"nominally head of the PVEM, the Mexican Green Party, which is anything but, just took his girlfriend who is half his age (she must be-according to the article, she just finished the preperatoria(!) to Disneyland. And that despite being a party leader, he did not attend or head any political event in 2010. Rather, he goes daily to play tennis in the wealthy Bosque de las Lomas area where he also lives, or to the Sport City in Santa Fe. And he proudly wears the most expensive designer clothes out there, including Brioni Suits. What a genuine representative of the post-materialist Green agenda!-
- Luis Walton Aburto, leader of the nominally left party Convergencia, which all of a sudden threw its lot with AMLO to become a "radical" party, is ultra rich, from owning gas stations and private schools. He also proudly tells us that he gains tons of money. What a great representative of los de abajo, of the downtrodden and poor!
There are those who come significantly better off. Humberto Moreira at least has a good sense of humor; PAN's Gustavo Madero is quite the wine connoisseur, PT's Alberto Anaya is as unpretentious as one can get, with crooked glasses and worn shoes, and PRD's Jesús Zambrano still shops at the corner store in Culhuacán, a very modest zone where he still lives, and likes to drink and play guitar with Carlos Navarrete and Guadalupe Acosta.
What more info does one need? To the polls!
Tuesday, July 19, 2011
An important and overlooked statistic: PRI governs less people today than 2006
Milenio puts the spotlight on a very important electoral statistic:
While PRI today governs 19 of Mexico's 32 states, which is three more than at the start of Calderón's sexenio, it actually governs four million less citizens. The steamroller wins on July 3 nothwithstanding: All of the states were already governed by PRI.
While PRI took Aguascalientes, San Luis Potosí, Querétaro, Yucatán, Nayarit and Tlaxcala from PAN, and Zacatecas from PRD, it lost the very important states of Sonora (due to the ABC nursery scandal), and Sinaloa, Oaxaca, and Puebla - states it had never lost before, in 81 years, thanks to the PRD-PAN alliances.
All eyes are now on Michoacán, where voter preferences seem to be split almost exactly in thirds for PAN, PRD, and PRI.
While PRI today governs 19 of Mexico's 32 states, which is three more than at the start of Calderón's sexenio, it actually governs four million less citizens. The steamroller wins on July 3 nothwithstanding: All of the states were already governed by PRI.
While PRI took Aguascalientes, San Luis Potosí, Querétaro, Yucatán, Nayarit and Tlaxcala from PAN, and Zacatecas from PRD, it lost the very important states of Sonora (due to the ABC nursery scandal), and Sinaloa, Oaxaca, and Puebla - states it had never lost before, in 81 years, thanks to the PRD-PAN alliances.
All eyes are now on Michoacán, where voter preferences seem to be split almost exactly in thirds for PAN, PRD, and PRI.
Luis Armando Reynoso Femat kicked out of PAN - again.
Former Aguascalientes Governor Luis Armando Reynoso Femat was just kicked out of the PAN, for having sabotaged the PAN candidate in favor of the PRI's gubernatorial candidate Carlos Lozano de la Torre. in last year's election.
This is the second attempt: An earlier attempt was rejected just a few weeks ago by Mexico's electoral tribunal TEPJF for procedural errors.
Aguascalientes was notably one of the PAN states that shifted to PRI last year, apparently much thanks to Reynoso Femat.
Much bitterness here: Even though the local PAN leader, Jorge López Martín, acknowledged that Reynoso Femat can still appeal to the Tribunal, he said they will expel him from the party "as many times as necessary."
This is the second attempt: An earlier attempt was rejected just a few weeks ago by Mexico's electoral tribunal TEPJF for procedural errors.
Aguascalientes was notably one of the PAN states that shifted to PRI last year, apparently much thanks to Reynoso Femat.
Much bitterness here: Even though the local PAN leader, Jorge López Martín, acknowledged that Reynoso Femat can still appeal to the Tribunal, he said they will expel him from the party "as many times as necessary."
Femicides in Sinaloa
Credit to Governor Mario López Valdez ("Malova") of Sinaloa for taking the issue of femicides seriously and not brushing it under the carpet, as has largely done e.g. Enrique Peña Nieto in Mexico State:
Malova considered the rise in femicides in Sinaloa "alarming," and called for a special investigation by his justice department to analyze the so far 56 reported cases of femicides this year, where the women have been targeted principally for being women. Last year saw 111 cases in the state.
Malova considered the rise in femicides in Sinaloa "alarming," and called for a special investigation by his justice department to analyze the so far 56 reported cases of femicides this year, where the women have been targeted principally for being women. Last year saw 111 cases in the state.
Gordillo's PANAL party under investigation by IFE
Mexico's federal electoral institute is carrying an investigation of Partido Nueva Alianza (PANAL), the teachers union-based party controlled completely by Elba Esther Gordillo, due to "unusual movements" in its bank account.
PANAL's new president Luis Castro Obregón seems to fit the party like hand in glove. He denied that the audit has anything to do with recent hurling of accusations of corruption between Gordillo and Miguel Angel Yunes, though refused to offer any more comments on the matter.
Then, asked if he knew the name of Ricardo Viso Veligson, a man who has endorsed 18 cheques to the party for over 7 million pesos, he simply refused to confirm or deny anything.
At least the former party president Jorge Kahwagi Macari - he of the 5,500-square meter house, a mini-horse collection, and a 10-million dollar yacht - was somewhat entertaining in his eccentricity, by way of comparison.
Elba Esther Gordillo's effect on 2006 a myth?
A very interesting article in today's El Universal, by CIDE researcher and political scientist José Antonio Crespo.
In a nutshell: While Elba Esther Gordillo certainly made a pact with Calderón in 2006, in an unseemly votes-for-political positions, the value of her votes are vastly exaggerated.
Why? While it is well known that her party PANAL received far more votes for its list of national deputies than for its presidential candidate - herein was the very bargain, where the SNTE-organized teachers and their families would vote for Calderón for president and their own party for lawmakers - yet a a forthcoming study by Javier Aparacio, one of CIDE's very sharpest minds, now reveals that of the SNTE/PANAL teachers, only 22 percent actually followed the order to so, while 27 percent voted for AMLO.
What does this mean? That Calderón paid a very heavy price for very little, and that Gordillo's bargaining power with regards to her PANAL party may be a castle made of sand: She does not deliver.
Party leaders, take note.
In a nutshell: While Elba Esther Gordillo certainly made a pact with Calderón in 2006, in an unseemly votes-for-political positions, the value of her votes are vastly exaggerated.
Why? While it is well known that her party PANAL received far more votes for its list of national deputies than for its presidential candidate - herein was the very bargain, where the SNTE-organized teachers and their families would vote for Calderón for president and their own party for lawmakers - yet a a forthcoming study by Javier Aparacio, one of CIDE's very sharpest minds, now reveals that of the SNTE/PANAL teachers, only 22 percent actually followed the order to so, while 27 percent voted for AMLO.
What does this mean? That Calderón paid a very heavy price for very little, and that Gordillo's bargaining power with regards to her PANAL party may be a castle made of sand: She does not deliver.
Party leaders, take note.
Monday, July 18, 2011
Great leap forward for AMLO's MORENA movement to become a party
News buried far within the paper, and undeservedly so, as it may be very relevant news for the Mexican political scene: The Movimiento de Regeneración Nacional or MORENA of Andrés Manuel López Obrador is set to become a "Political Association" the coming Oct. 1- a major step toward becoming a party.
The setting will be the day after AMLO is set to end his latest tour of Mexico, of which I admit I have now lost count.
According to AMLO,
Given the continued fights betwen AMLO and the PRD, perhaps it would be better, to slightly paraphrase Lyndon B Johnson, to actually have AMLO pissing on the tent from the outside, rather than having him inside the tent pissing... inside.
The setting will be the day after AMLO is set to end his latest tour of Mexico, of which I admit I have now lost count.
According to AMLO,
Parties are very discredited, including the progressive ones, because there are vices that turn them into the mold of the traditional ones, and they make them into the mold of traditional and they alienate them from what the people say.Unless you have a true party of the people, whose will AMLO claims to know so well. This sounds like the beginning of a new party to me.
Given the continued fights betwen AMLO and the PRD, perhaps it would be better, to slightly paraphrase Lyndon B Johnson, to actually have AMLO pissing on the tent from the outside, rather than having him inside the tent pissing... inside.
Gregorio "Greg" Sánchez: Innocent, or a madman
Earlier, to recall, Gregorio "Greg" Sánchez was accused of narco ties with Los Zetas and the Beltrán Leyvas.
Now, however, he is accused by a "protected witness" of laundering money for the Sinaloa Cartel.
I have a hard time imagine Sánchez being so foolish as betting on both the Zetas and El Chapo - he would be a madman. Or, it may well turn out, he is not guilty of associating with either.
Now, however, he is accused by a "protected witness" of laundering money for the Sinaloa Cartel.
I have a hard time imagine Sánchez being so foolish as betting on both the Zetas and El Chapo - he would be a madman. Or, it may well turn out, he is not guilty of associating with either.
The great bishop Raúl Vera receives threats - from whom?
Raúl Vera, bishop of Saltillo, and one of the very few of the top layers of the Mexican Catholic church with a demonstrated care for the poor, has been threatened with narco-style anonymous banners or mantas, containing messages such as "We want a Catholic Bishop" and "We Want the Bishop Only to Talk about Religion."
Vera is known for his defense of human rights and work on behalf of poor and marginalized sectors, and defending the rights of migrants, workers, women, gays, and others.
The usually arch-conservative Conferencia del Episcopado Mexicano (CEM) to its credit found it wise to express its support for Vera, while the vicar general of the diocese of Saltillo noted that the banners could have been placed there by both conservative catholic groups, and factions of organized crime.
Which are far too often, unfortunately, the very same.
Vera is known for his defense of human rights and work on behalf of poor and marginalized sectors, and defending the rights of migrants, workers, women, gays, and others.
The usually arch-conservative Conferencia del Episcopado Mexicano (CEM) to its credit found it wise to express its support for Vera, while the vicar general of the diocese of Saltillo noted that the banners could have been placed there by both conservative catholic groups, and factions of organized crime.
Which are far too often, unfortunately, the very same.
"Greg" Sánchez case: PRD wants political trial against Gómez Mont and Chávez Chávez
Given the freeing of PRD's ex-gubernatorial candidate in Quintana Roo, Gregorio "Greg" Sánchez, after charges of collusion with drug trafficking were dropped, the PRD will push for a political trial of then-interior secretary Fernando Gómez Mont, and then-Attorney General Arturo Chávez Chávez, accusing them of having launched the operation against Sánchez for political reasons.
As PRD president Jesús Zambrano pointed out that in 15 months, the attorney general's (PGR) office was unable to find any evidence for the charges. Sánchez was, however, immediately rearrested, yet now on money laundering charges. Zambrano called for the current attorney general, Marisela Morales Ibáñez, to "not fall in the same factious attitude" as her predecessors.
It seems to me quite remarkable that in 15 months, the PGR has nothing on Greg for what he was originally arrested for. Will this end as yet another Michoacanazo?
As PRD president Jesús Zambrano pointed out that in 15 months, the attorney general's (PGR) office was unable to find any evidence for the charges. Sánchez was, however, immediately rearrested, yet now on money laundering charges. Zambrano called for the current attorney general, Marisela Morales Ibáñez, to "not fall in the same factious attitude" as her predecessors.
It seems to me quite remarkable that in 15 months, the PGR has nothing on Greg for what he was originally arrested for. Will this end as yet another Michoacanazo?
Ye of no faith: From 3.5 to 4.6 percent the last decade
While the percentage of Mexicans who define themselves as catholic has dropped from 88 to 83.9 percent the past decade, according to the Mexican census, many of these have simply switched religions, in particular to Pentecostalism. Notably in states such as Chiapas, Campeche, and Tabasco, the percentage of catholics is as low as 59.5-64.1-65.6 percent respectively.
Yet also one sign of human progress: Those who deny living by magic writings handed down from heaven on high during the Bronze age, or of any kind, rose from 3.5 to 4.6 percent .
Yet also one sign of human progress: Those who deny living by magic writings handed down from heaven on high during the Bronze age, or of any kind, rose from 3.5 to 4.6 percent .
Sunday, July 17, 2011
Fistfight! And fire extinguisher! PAN in Michocán comes to blows over Cocoa vs. Marko
I do not condone violence and even less to solve political conflicts. Yet the internal turmoil in PAN's state branch in Michoacán, where the party is divided over whether President Calderón's sister Luisa María "Cocoa" or Senator Marko Cortés should be its gubernatorial candidate for the November election, sounds like something out of a slapstick movie:
(though El Universal reports the EMP guard intervened on behalf of Cocoa's supporters)
Refreshing to hear the PRD isn't the only party with unorthodox dispute mediation techniques.
"[Marko's campaign coordinator] Eduardo Chavira Garcia came to the other end of the hall, where [Luisa María's coordinator] Mariano Torres stood, and suddenly planted a coupled of blows to his face....Mariano Torres lost his balance and fell backward on a fire extinguisher, which got turned on and released powder over those cheering. Shoving ensued between supporters of two rival groups, but there were no more blows, although insults and threats.Members of the Presidential Guard, who constantly guard Luisa María Calderón, merely observed the scene and surrounded Cocoa."
(though El Universal reports the EMP guard intervened on behalf of Cocoa's supporters)
Refreshing to hear the PRD isn't the only party with unorthodox dispute mediation techniques.
Doña Ifigenia Martínez: More dangerous that PAN continues than PRI returns
Ifigenia Martínez is a grand dama in many ways. She was the first woman to hold a range of offices in Mexico - all the time while a priísta - such as ambassador to the United Nations, and graduated as an economist with a master's from Harvard - the first mexicana to do so. On a personal note: I also had the chance to interview her at lengths a couple of years back, and found her a most wonderful and endearing lady, who was very sharp, but from whom it was nearly impossible to extract a straight answer to any of my questions. I found it remarkable that someone of her age and position would be so guarded.
With the years, Doña Ifigenia notably returned to active politics, and is now a federal deputy for the PT, or Workers Party, often considered a more "radical" party than the PRD. In an interview she said she regards the PRI's return as much less of a threat than a continued rule of the PAN.
I find this baffling, and not only given the macroeconomic indicators, where most every study I've read suggests the christian-democratic PAN has been far more successful in alleviating poverty than the PRI:
As a founder of the Corriente Democrática, a progressive current within the PRI that included Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas and Porfirio Múnoz Ledo that eventually ditched the PRI to later form the PRD, her preference for the PRI over PAN is even more perplexing and, might one add, disappointing.
With the years, Doña Ifigenia notably returned to active politics, and is now a federal deputy for the PT, or Workers Party, often considered a more "radical" party than the PRD. In an interview she said she regards the PRI's return as much less of a threat than a continued rule of the PAN.
I find this baffling, and not only given the macroeconomic indicators, where most every study I've read suggests the christian-democratic PAN has been far more successful in alleviating poverty than the PRI:
As a founder of the Corriente Democrática, a progressive current within the PRI that included Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas and Porfirio Múnoz Ledo that eventually ditched the PRI to later form the PRD, her preference for the PRI over PAN is even more perplexing and, might one add, disappointing.
Saturday, July 16, 2011
"Demócratas en Movimiento": New PRD mega-coalition rallies behind Ebrard
No surprises in terms of who they are, but their statement is noteworthy nonetheless in terms of making a point: The internal PRD factions (technically termed corrientes de opinión) Nueva Izquierda, Foro Nuevo Sol, Alternativa Democrática Nacional, Izquierda Renovadora en Movimiento, and Unidad y Renovación, formed a coalition called "Demócratas en Movimiento" to back Marcelo Ebrard for the 2012 PRD candidacy.
All, with the partial exception of UNYR, belong to the social democratic or democratic socialist factions of the PRD, and their backing of Ebrard has hardly been a secret (UNYR was formerly a very pro-cardenista faction and at times appeared quite "radical," yet is now largely centered around the Transportation secretary of Mexico City, Armando Quintero).
The earlier spats between Ebrard and particularly Nueva Izquierda in 2007-09 to me always appeared pointless - e.g. Ebrard backed AMLO's candidate for the party presidency in 2008, even though he was much closer ideologically and programatically to these social-democratic and socially liberal factions. Ebrard and NI were always natural allies, and Ebrard did not distance itself from the new group, but naturally embraced it, as he should - AMLO, lest we forget, have a 5-year head start on Ebrard, having built his new movement since 2006.
What is important is that all these five factions - NI and ADN by far the largest of them - together have an absolute majority within the PRD, including on its national council, should the PRD decide to determine its 2012 candidate through a vote there.
All, with the partial exception of UNYR, belong to the social democratic or democratic socialist factions of the PRD, and their backing of Ebrard has hardly been a secret (UNYR was formerly a very pro-cardenista faction and at times appeared quite "radical," yet is now largely centered around the Transportation secretary of Mexico City, Armando Quintero).
The earlier spats between Ebrard and particularly Nueva Izquierda in 2007-09 to me always appeared pointless - e.g. Ebrard backed AMLO's candidate for the party presidency in 2008, even though he was much closer ideologically and programatically to these social-democratic and socially liberal factions. Ebrard and NI were always natural allies, and Ebrard did not distance itself from the new group, but naturally embraced it, as he should - AMLO, lest we forget, have a 5-year head start on Ebrard, having built his new movement since 2006.
What is important is that all these five factions - NI and ADN by far the largest of them - together have an absolute majority within the PRD, including on its national council, should the PRD decide to determine its 2012 candidate through a vote there.
Gregorio "Greg" Sánchez absolved of narcotrafficking, charged with laundering money
Gregorio "Greg" Sánchez, the PRD mayor of Cancún who was dramatically arrested ahead of the Quintana Roo gubernatorial election last year for drug trafficking, was absolved of said charged. Yet as he left prison, he was re-arrested on money laundering charges.
Whatever Sánchez's guilt - or not - I wish we didn't have to live through these charades, where a person is arrested, then released as charges are dropped or exonerated, while then being re-arrested as s/he literally walks out the prison door. To call it undignified is an understatement.
Whatever Sánchez's guilt - or not - I wish we didn't have to live through these charades, where a person is arrested, then released as charges are dropped or exonerated, while then being re-arrested as s/he literally walks out the prison door. To call it undignified is an understatement.
Friday, July 15, 2011
Enrique Peña Nieto says yes to alliance with Gordillo
Despite what appears to me not only widespread but also increasing denunciation of Elba Esther Gordillo, her SNTE teachers union, and her PANAL party from prominent panistas, priístas, and perredistas, at least she has one firm backer: Outgoing governor of Mexico State Enrique Peña Nieto, who declared his willingness to make deals with Gordillo in order to win the presidency in 2012.
More on Cherán, Michoacán: Wonderful story in El Universal
A highly recommended read is today's story in El Universal of Cherán, Michoacán, a small town that heroically took up arms against organized crime and illegal loggers, kicked out the PRI mayor, and has so far lived to tell the tale.
The article in particular highlights the help and support from Cherán's expat community in the United States, which numbers around 7,000.
The article in particular highlights the help and support from Cherán's expat community in the United States, which numbers around 7,000.
Martín Esparza assumes for new period as SME leader
Martín Esparza Flores was sworn in yesterday for a new period as secretary general of the Mexican Electricians union, SME, La Jornada reports, faithfully adding that a "committee of observers" agree that Esparaza was elected according to the unions statutes.
The newspaper fails to neglect one little detail: The electricians were free to elect any candidate they wanted, as long as it was Esparza: His list was the only option available. For that you need to read Milenio's coverage.
When it comes to causes dear to LJ's heart, above AMLO and any and all organizations allied with him, it is, unfortunately, not possible to rely on the newspaper as one of record: Omitting is distorting.
The newspaper fails to neglect one little detail: The electricians were free to elect any candidate they wanted, as long as it was Esparza: His list was the only option available. For that you need to read Milenio's coverage.
When it comes to causes dear to LJ's heart, above AMLO and any and all organizations allied with him, it is, unfortunately, not possible to rely on the newspaper as one of record: Omitting is distorting.
Cárdenas against national poll to decide 2012 PRD candidacy
Much talk of the comments allegedly attributable to Andrés Manuel López Obrador, reported in Reforma, where he says that no matter what, he will be a 2012 candidate, either of one, two, or three parties. I have for a long time believed (and so has Joaquín López-Dóriga), that there is no way AMLO will not run in 2012, regardless of any agreement with Marcelo Ebrard.
Speaking of PRD caudillos and presidential campaigns:
Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas, the man who enticed AMLO to leave the PRI only after the 1988 fraud and only aftr PRI had denied him the PRI candidacy for governor of Tabasco in the fall of 1988, opined that he does not support the idea of a national poll to decide who will be the PRD's 2012 candidate, preferring instead some kind of party vote. I am repeating myself ad nauseam here as well, but I remain convinced that he still is far from giving up the idea of another Cárdenas as president of Mexico.
Speaking of PRD caudillos and presidential campaigns:
Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas, the man who enticed AMLO to leave the PRI only after the 1988 fraud and only aftr PRI had denied him the PRI candidacy for governor of Tabasco in the fall of 1988, opined that he does not support the idea of a national poll to decide who will be the PRD's 2012 candidate, preferring instead some kind of party vote. I am repeating myself ad nauseam here as well, but I remain convinced that he still is far from giving up the idea of another Cárdenas as president of Mexico.
History repeating itself as farce? The desafuero of AMLO, and PAN today
Carlos Loret de Mola has a great column today where he points out an irony of irony, history repeating itself etc - pick your cliché. Remember the 2005 desafuero, Vicente Fox' idiotic assault on AMLO which almost tore Mexican democracy apart?
AMLO was impeached ostensibly for contempt of the law, for failing to abide by a court order demanding that the city government cease building an access road to a local hospital in the Encinos area, close to Santa Fe.
Now, someone else is trying to do the very same thing, namely continuing opening up that road, which was never completed.... the PAN delegation chief of Cuajimalpa, Carlos Orvañanos!
AMLO was impeached ostensibly for contempt of the law, for failing to abide by a court order demanding that the city government cease building an access road to a local hospital in the Encinos area, close to Santa Fe.
Now, someone else is trying to do the very same thing, namely continuing opening up that road, which was never completed.... the PAN delegation chief of Cuajimalpa, Carlos Orvañanos!
Former Spanish prime minister Felipe González criticizes the Mexican left, sees return of PRI
When Felipe González speaks, most pay attention - the former (82-96) Spanish prime minister remains an acute political observer and analyst, also of things Mexican. González recently said he sees a PRI return to power in Mexico very likely, and also criticized the Mexican left for having wasted a chance to present a progressive and modern left platform for the 21st century.
I wish he were wrong on both accounts.
The PRD remains torn between what is certainly a very modern and progressive, socially liberal, social democratic sector, and another, tied to AMLO, that consists of a weird amalgam of "revolutionary nationalism" à la PRI in the 1970s, which is moreover quite socially conservative, and the ultraleft positions of some of his most radical followers.
As for 2012, Ebrard represents the first option, and Ebrard the latter.
I wish he were wrong on both accounts.
The PRD remains torn between what is certainly a very modern and progressive, socially liberal, social democratic sector, and another, tied to AMLO, that consists of a weird amalgam of "revolutionary nationalism" à la PRI in the 1970s, which is moreover quite socially conservative, and the ultraleft positions of some of his most radical followers.
As for 2012, Ebrard represents the first option, and Ebrard the latter.
Ebrard: No alliance with Gordillo or her PANAL party for 2012
Marcelo Ebrard maintained there will be no alliance with Elba Esther Gordillo and her PANAL party for 2012.
Recall that just a couple of days ago, Jorge Castañeda claimed, quite improbably, that Ebrard was Gordillo's first choice for 2012.
Recall that just a couple of days ago, Jorge Castañeda claimed, quite improbably, that Ebrard was Gordillo's first choice for 2012.
Thursday, July 14, 2011
How education mattered for vote choice in Mexico State, July 3
This image, based on a Mexico City exit poll on July 3 and courtesy of Parametría / Animal Político, is truly revealing: The graph below shows how education mattered for the vote choice:
 |
| Based on exit polls on July 3, 2011, Mexico State |
El País editorial: What the Spanish think of Enrique Peña Nieto
A recent editorial in the great Spanish newspaper El País that had gotten by me sums up Enrique Peña Nieto nicely:
For next year, the PRI, located in a vague center-left, could count as a candidate Enrique Peña Nieto, despite that some of the economic and social indicators of Mexico State are down in the ground. Peña Nieto has learned to adapt with great professionalism to the new times and the demands of television.As for practical results - he's been a big disappointment. The contrast with Marcelo Ebrard, who has been an excellent mayor of Mexico City, could hardly be greater.
Wednesday, July 13, 2011
Calderón: Gordillo had "no license to plunder"
Noteworthy language from President Felipe Calderón: Asked by a journalist on the political agreement that saw Elba Esther Gordillo appoint three top-level political positions in return for her electoral support on voting day, July 2 2006, he responded:
"This does not imply, and this is an important clarification, that there was a license to plunder these institutions"
"This does not imply, and this is an important clarification, that there was a license to plunder these institutions"
Arturo Valenzuela: PRI has changed
Arturo Valenzuela is nearing the end of not an exactly stellar tenure as Subsecretary for the Western Hemisphere - the U.S. State Department's highest diplomatic post for Latin America - and one might expect him to speak a bit more freely on a few subjects.
To a group of Mexican journalists, he gave his opinion of the PRI:
"I do not agree with the idea that here there is a party of dinosaurs... Frankly, I see renovation in the PRI. I see new sectors. I see new people. One has done an enormous effort to try to modernize the party."
As for his analysis, I couldn't disagree more. What "modernization" have we seen in the PRI, when the "new" faces of Humberto Moreira, Eruviel Ávila, Enrique Peña Nieto etc, merely continue exactly the same clientelistic and authoritarian practices of the "old" PRI?
What a parting gift to the PRI! Thanks for nothing, Arturo.
To a group of Mexican journalists, he gave his opinion of the PRI:
"I do not agree with the idea that here there is a party of dinosaurs... Frankly, I see renovation in the PRI. I see new sectors. I see new people. One has done an enormous effort to try to modernize the party."
As for his analysis, I couldn't disagree more. What "modernization" have we seen in the PRI, when the "new" faces of Humberto Moreira, Eruviel Ávila, Enrique Peña Nieto etc, merely continue exactly the same clientelistic and authoritarian practices of the "old" PRI?
What a parting gift to the PRI! Thanks for nothing, Arturo.
On September 15, Enrique Peña Nieto will declare his desire to be president
Enrique Peña Nieto said that on the day he leaves his post as governor of Mexico State, he will declare whether he is running for President of Mexico. That day is Sept. 15, which means that it will still be two more months until he makes it official.
Ulises Ruiz's government: 13 key cabinet officials stole 4 billion pesos
A couple of days ago, Perla Woorlichs Fernández, the state comptroller of Oaxaca, announced that a whopping 32 public servants of Ulises Ruiz's government, including 13 in key cabinet positions, are implicated in the stealing of almost four billion pesos.
This is only a partial result of the ongoing investigation into Ruiz' disastrous rule of Oaxaca, 2004-2010.
It is important to note that just a month before leaving power, Ruiz' PRI-controlled congress trumped through a law that depenalized embezzlement. It is probably the only far-sighted measure taken by the priístas.
Now, current governor Gabino Cué calls on Ruiz himself for an explanation, and pointedly noted, "he is not exempt."
Here is a great PDF graphic that outlines where the money was allegedly - very probably - stolen from.
This is only a partial result of the ongoing investigation into Ruiz' disastrous rule of Oaxaca, 2004-2010.
It is important to note that just a month before leaving power, Ruiz' PRI-controlled congress trumped through a law that depenalized embezzlement. It is probably the only far-sighted measure taken by the priístas.
Now, current governor Gabino Cué calls on Ruiz himself for an explanation, and pointedly noted, "he is not exempt."
Here is a great PDF graphic that outlines where the money was allegedly - very probably - stolen from.
Historic Mexican Supreme Court decision: Civilian trials for military accused of human rights abuses
A historic decision by Mexico's Supreme Court: Military personnel that commit human rights abuses are now to be tried in civilian courts, and not military, as has been the practice until now, known as fuero militar.
Organizations such as Human Rights Watch already praised the decision by the Supreme Court, which was moreover unanimous. It reverses the practice of the past 70 years, and follows the recent ruling against Mexico by the Inter-American Human Rights Court, which dealt with Rosendo Radilla, a decaparecida social leader in Guerrero in 1974, which found Mexico's practice incompatible with its human rights charter and international obligations.
Senators and deputies from all major parties - PAN, PRI, PRD - hailed the decision. That is great news.
Yet there were also negative voices. Probably the most hysterical response to the court's ruling comes from Carlos Marín, who in his column suggests that recent successful operations by the army, such as liberating 20 or so hostages in Monterrey a few days back, will no longer be possible. Does he truly believe his own reactionary nonsense?
Organizations such as Human Rights Watch already praised the decision by the Supreme Court, which was moreover unanimous. It reverses the practice of the past 70 years, and follows the recent ruling against Mexico by the Inter-American Human Rights Court, which dealt with Rosendo Radilla, a decaparecida social leader in Guerrero in 1974, which found Mexico's practice incompatible with its human rights charter and international obligations.
Senators and deputies from all major parties - PAN, PRI, PRD - hailed the decision. That is great news.
Yet there were also negative voices. Probably the most hysterical response to the court's ruling comes from Carlos Marín, who in his column suggests that recent successful operations by the army, such as liberating 20 or so hostages in Monterrey a few days back, will no longer be possible. Does he truly believe his own reactionary nonsense?
Excellent overview of the petroleum situation in Mexico
This overview by Eurasiareview on Mexican petroleum, including the status of Pemex and its current reserves, is very comprehensive and timely, and well worth a read.
Petroleum is declining in relative importance - it accounts for 14 percent of export earnings - yet as a cash cow to cover the federal budget, it remains critically important - a whopping third of the state's revenues.
Petroleum is declining in relative importance - it accounts for 14 percent of export earnings - yet as a cash cow to cover the federal budget, it remains critically important - a whopping third of the state's revenues.
Tuesday, July 12, 2011
Jumping on the bandwagon? Jorge Castañeda, now against Gordillo
To be fair, Jorge Castañeda dedicates a chunk of his new book to criticizing Elba Esther Gordillo, head of the powerful SNTE teachers union, and accused of ultra-corruption. In a recent piece for Enfoque (direct PDF download here), which is well worth a read, he expands on the criticism. As such, I guess one can't accuse him of jumping entirely on the bandwagon, though the piece nonetheless does come across as more than a bit apologetic over his longtime bonds with Gordillo, a connection that seems to have been maintained first and foremost in the hope that Gordillo would do something for him - that is, help him become a presidential candidate. According to Castañeda, for 2012, Gordillo's main choice is now Marcelo Ebrard. I find that hard to believe.
Regardless: Given recent big-shot PRI members' recent criticism of Gordillo, of note is that Jacqueline Peschard, head of IFAI (federal institute of access to information), also speaks out against Gordillo, calling for an investigation.
Who's next? Has the tide really turned against Gordillo?
One can only hope.
Who is next?
Regardless: Given recent big-shot PRI members' recent criticism of Gordillo, of note is that Jacqueline Peschard, head of IFAI (federal institute of access to information), also speaks out against Gordillo, calling for an investigation.
Who's next? Has the tide really turned against Gordillo?
One can only hope.
Who is next?
SNTSEDESOL thugs shut down the secretariat of social development
Here's more than a bit of fuel to the fire for the argument that many of Mexico's unions are in desperate need of democratization and a thorough house cleaning of thugs:
Cristina Olvera, head of the union of employees of Mexico's social development secretariat (Sindicato Nacional de Trabajadores de la Secretaría de Desarrollo Social, SNTSEDESOL), led a few hundred workers to essentially shut down the federal secretariat, affecting millions: Due to the shutdown of services, everything from registration into social programs to the handing out of food to the elderly and children's nutrition program have been negatively affected.
And what was the glorious cause that led Olvera et al to block entrances and lock up the buildings with chains and padlocks, shutting down SEDESOL institutions all over the country?
The union is demanding the removal of the of Sedesol in Hidalgo, for having fired an employee who was accused of abusing a disabled child. For that, they decided to screw over millions of poor, old and children, all over Mexico.
This is simply incredible.
Cristina Olvera, head of the union of employees of Mexico's social development secretariat (Sindicato Nacional de Trabajadores de la Secretaría de Desarrollo Social, SNTSEDESOL), led a few hundred workers to essentially shut down the federal secretariat, affecting millions: Due to the shutdown of services, everything from registration into social programs to the handing out of food to the elderly and children's nutrition program have been negatively affected.
And what was the glorious cause that led Olvera et al to block entrances and lock up the buildings with chains and padlocks, shutting down SEDESOL institutions all over the country?
The union is demanding the removal of the of Sedesol in Hidalgo, for having fired an employee who was accused of abusing a disabled child. For that, they decided to screw over millions of poor, old and children, all over Mexico.
This is simply incredible.
On PRI's resurgence, take 3
The venerable British newspaper the Guardian also has a very good summary of the PRI's possible return to Los Pinos:
The PRI's patina of age may receive a new polish – thanks to telegenic young politicians like Ávila and Peña Nieto – but the party still has a long way to go in proving that it has shaken its authoritarian past and can govern democratically.Indeed it does.
Monday, July 11, 2011
How the left may lose Michoacán: PT presents own candidate
Bad news for left unity in Michoacán, and for the upcoming (November) gubernatorial elections:
The Partido del Trabajo (PT), the Workers Party that pretends to present itself as more radical leftwing alternative to the PRD, announced it would field its own candidate for governor, Jorge Cázares of the CNTE "alternative" teachers union, as the PRD candidate Silvano Aureoles represents "the right within the left."
I hardly believe it is an exercise in leftwing sectarianism; that would presume that PT actually have political ideals. Rather, the party is likely seeking some electoral payoff from the PRD in exchange for joining its coalition.
The PT's presence in the state is very small, and of course has no chance of winning, yet in a tight election, which the coming one is likely to be, should the PT go alone this may be enough to sink the PRD candidate.
Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard and Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas have already said they will campaign in Michoacán for Senator Aureoles. All we need now is AMLO arriving in Michoacán to back Cázares.
The Partido del Trabajo (PT), the Workers Party that pretends to present itself as more radical leftwing alternative to the PRD, announced it would field its own candidate for governor, Jorge Cázares of the CNTE "alternative" teachers union, as the PRD candidate Silvano Aureoles represents "the right within the left."
I hardly believe it is an exercise in leftwing sectarianism; that would presume that PT actually have political ideals. Rather, the party is likely seeking some electoral payoff from the PRD in exchange for joining its coalition.
The PT's presence in the state is very small, and of course has no chance of winning, yet in a tight election, which the coming one is likely to be, should the PT go alone this may be enough to sink the PRD candidate.
Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard and Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas have already said they will campaign in Michoacán for Senator Aureoles. All we need now is AMLO arriving in Michoacán to back Cázares.
PRI split over to seek an alliance with Elba Esther Gordillo for 2012
While some, like Veracruz Governor Javier Duarte, sing her praise, other big-shot priistas openly come out against the powerful Elba Esther Gordillo and her SNTE teacher union and PANAL party-for-hire, and reject an alliance with her for 2012. A couple of days ago, former presidential candidate Francisco Labastida Ochoa spoke out against negotiating with Gordillo.
Now, former PRI president (the first-ever woman party president in Mexico) and current senator, María de los Ángeles Moreno, similarly said PRI shouldn't ally with Gordillo.
(PAN senator Santiago Creel, for his part, said that furthering "the human well being does not mean being allied with Elba Esther Gordillo.")
Given the mutual embrace of Gordillo and Enrique Peña Nieto, are we seeing a PRI split over the Gordillo alliance?
Now, former PRI president (the first-ever woman party president in Mexico) and current senator, María de los Ángeles Moreno, similarly said PRI shouldn't ally with Gordillo.
(PAN senator Santiago Creel, for his part, said that furthering "the human well being does not mean being allied with Elba Esther Gordillo.")
Given the mutual embrace of Gordillo and Enrique Peña Nieto, are we seeing a PRI split over the Gordillo alliance?
Narcopolitics in Michoacán: Long-term strategy to infiltrate politics
Mexico's Secretariat of Public Security detailed in an analysis how La Familia Michoacana for years - starting, apparently, in 2000 - "have sought to have persons related to their criminal organization popularly elected," and successfully penetrated in 2000-2007 security and justice institutions, and co-opted social actors.
SSP also claimed much success in the fight against the mafia, with 729 members arrested in the last three years.
Right now, 1,800 heavily armed federal police are arriving in Michoacán, ostensibly with the task of arresting Servando Gómez Martínez, o3 "La Tuta," the apparent head of La Famila, or Los Caballeros Templarios as they seem to be calling themselves now. La Tuta has been apparently spotted in the Apatzingán area by Mexican intelligence.
SSP also claimed much success in the fight against the mafia, with 729 members arrested in the last three years.
Right now, 1,800 heavily armed federal police are arriving in Michoacán, ostensibly with the task of arresting Servando Gómez Martínez, o3 "La Tuta," the apparent head of La Famila, or Los Caballeros Templarios as they seem to be calling themselves now. La Tuta has been apparently spotted in the Apatzingán area by Mexican intelligence.
Governor Governor Ángel Aguirre goes for Ebrard 2012
While noting that he will back whoever is ahead in the poll the PRD will hold to determine its presidential candidate, Guerrero Governor Ángel Aguirre Rivero said Ebrard was "the best option" for 2012.
Not a surprise, given Ebrard's active campaigning in the state during Aguirre's campaign, but an important endorsement nonetheless.
Not a surprise, given Ebrard's active campaigning in the state during Aguirre's campaign, but an important endorsement nonetheless.
Saturday, July 9, 2011
PRI governor Javier Duarte grovels for Elba Esther Gordillo
Governor Javier Duarte de Ochoa of Veracruz made his feelings toward Elba Esther Gordillo - and his disregard for the education of his state's youth - very clear:
"Here in Veracruz, we regard the president of the Sindicato Nacional de Trabajadores de la Educación (SNTE), la maestra Elba Esther Gordillo, as a friend and an ally of the veracruzanos."
Why does Rosario Robles have her own column?
I find it inexplicable that Rosario Robles has her own column in Milenio, to be frank.
Robles, the second female president of the PRD who resigned abruptly among a massive corruption scandal, resurfaced as a columnist after keeping a very low profile for years, and for a good reason: She has repeatedly shown an amazing lack of judgment, politically, professionally, and personally.
As caretaker of Mexico City whenCuauhtémoc Cárdenas stepped down after barely two years to make yet another (his third) run for the presidency, she went on a wild spending spree on publicity and privileges for government functionaries, and was notorious for her personalistic and confrontational style. AMLO, to his credit, immediately cancelled the many dubious city contracts she had signed, when he took over in 2000.
As president of PRD, for 16 controversial months, she moved the party in a confrontational and radical direction - her university militancy was with a Maoist grouping - and stepped down after a poor electoral showing in 2003, despite the PRD's debt doubling to at least half a billion pesos under her watch.
But the real scandal came later, when it was revealed that her lover Carlos Ahumada, a wealthy businessman, had taken over parts of the PRD’s debt, and later sought to blackmail the party by making this public. Robles first denied this, but was forced to admit it when evidence surfaced. A PRD commitee found Robles criminally responsible.
(This became part of the 2004 video scandals, which proved disastrous to the PRD and destroyed much of its credibility, when AMLO's secretary René Bejarano was caught on camera (set up by Ahumada) stuffing wads of money in a bag, ostensibly for "party promotion.")
Now, Robles argues in her column that a PAN-PRD alliance in Mexico State would have been useless, as the parties together were still beat by more than 30 points. This ignores completely two important points: An early demonstration of unity by PRD-PAN and a credible candidate might have created a very different dynamic and polarized the election. In turn, this might very well have elevated the turnout, which was the lowest in decades. It was exactly the much higher turnout, undoubtedly generated by voters actually believing the opposition candidate stood a chance and thus bothered to show up, which nailed the PRD-PAN triumphs in Oaxaca, Puebla, and Sinaloa last year.
And now, Robles calls for "congruence" and for the "responsible" for the 2011 defeats to be punished.
I repeat: Why does Rosario Robles have her own column, and why on earth should anybody listen to her?
Robles, the second female president of the PRD who resigned abruptly among a massive corruption scandal, resurfaced as a columnist after keeping a very low profile for years, and for a good reason: She has repeatedly shown an amazing lack of judgment, politically, professionally, and personally.
As caretaker of Mexico City whenCuauhtémoc Cárdenas stepped down after barely two years to make yet another (his third) run for the presidency, she went on a wild spending spree on publicity and privileges for government functionaries, and was notorious for her personalistic and confrontational style. AMLO, to his credit, immediately cancelled the many dubious city contracts she had signed, when he took over in 2000.
As president of PRD, for 16 controversial months, she moved the party in a confrontational and radical direction - her university militancy was with a Maoist grouping - and stepped down after a poor electoral showing in 2003, despite the PRD's debt doubling to at least half a billion pesos under her watch.
But the real scandal came later, when it was revealed that her lover Carlos Ahumada, a wealthy businessman, had taken over parts of the PRD’s debt, and later sought to blackmail the party by making this public. Robles first denied this, but was forced to admit it when evidence surfaced. A PRD commitee found Robles criminally responsible.
(This became part of the 2004 video scandals, which proved disastrous to the PRD and destroyed much of its credibility, when AMLO's secretary René Bejarano was caught on camera (set up by Ahumada) stuffing wads of money in a bag, ostensibly for "party promotion.")
Now, Robles argues in her column that a PAN-PRD alliance in Mexico State would have been useless, as the parties together were still beat by more than 30 points. This ignores completely two important points: An early demonstration of unity by PRD-PAN and a credible candidate might have created a very different dynamic and polarized the election. In turn, this might very well have elevated the turnout, which was the lowest in decades. It was exactly the much higher turnout, undoubtedly generated by voters actually believing the opposition candidate stood a chance and thus bothered to show up, which nailed the PRD-PAN triumphs in Oaxaca, Puebla, and Sinaloa last year.
And now, Robles calls for "congruence" and for the "responsible" for the 2011 defeats to be punished.
I repeat: Why does Rosario Robles have her own column, and why on earth should anybody listen to her?
... and now PAN rejects any alliance with PRD for 2012
Gustavo Madero, PAN president, now says there will be no alliance with the PRD for 2012, and definitely the PAN will not back AMLO or Ebrard.
Two thoughts:
1) Words matter very little one year ahead of 2102, and Madero's even less, despite being head of PAN.
2) If not AMLO and Ebrard - would the PAN back a common "citizen candidate"?
Two thoughts:
1) Words matter very little one year ahead of 2102, and Madero's even less, despite being head of PAN.
2) If not AMLO and Ebrard - would the PAN back a common "citizen candidate"?
PRI deputies clamors for alliance with Gordillo's PANAL for 2012
The PRI's legislative bench in the Chamber of Deputies defended going in an alliance with PANAL, the personal party of Elba Esther Gordillo of the SNTE teachers union, and claimed it was "belittling" the party to merely regard it as an appendage of Gordillo - which everyone knows, of course, that it is.
And even better: PRI federal deputy David Penchyna argued that PANAL has "an ideology that is congruent with the PRI."
Indeed, as both have none, beyond their desire for power and the spoils thereof.
And even better: PRI federal deputy David Penchyna argued that PANAL has "an ideology that is congruent with the PRI."
Indeed, as both have none, beyond their desire for power and the spoils thereof.
Friday, July 8, 2011
Mexican Air Force receives its first Eurocopters
The Fuerza Aérea Mexicana received the first two of an order of six Eurocopter EC 725 Super Cougars.
The French-made helicopters are intended first and foremost for use in case of natural disasters and for rescue and evacuation missions, though they can also be armed - and be used to fight the drug gangs.
The French-made helicopters are intended first and foremost for use in case of natural disasters and for rescue and evacuation missions, though they can also be armed - and be used to fight the drug gangs.
 |
| From La Jornada |
It's all in the name: Enrique Peña Nieto presents his own PRI group
Outgoing Mexico State Governor Enrique Peña Nieto held a "working breakfast" with a large group of senators, federal deputies, former governors, and other PRI big shots, and handed them their accreditation as members of the new group entitled Expresión Política Nacional, the name of the PRI group that will bring him the presidential nomination, and, more likely than not, the Mexican presidency in 2012.
Its initials just happen to be his - EPN.
I find this more than a bit instructive: According to Baja Reserva,
I am sure the 2012-2018 EPN government will just stand out for its openness and transparency and lack of paranoia. And for its lack of asskissing.
Its initials just happen to be his - EPN.
I find this more than a bit instructive: According to Baja Reserva,
Nothing escaped the team of the mexiquense: the audience had to leave their mobile phones outside the salon, so that they could not receive or make any calls, but also to avoid any photograph, video or audio recording, so as to uploadto Twitter. Attendees formed a bloc in support of the state governor for 2012. And in the end, a besamanos.Wow. What the hell went on in there, an Eyes Wide Shut-like induction ceremony?
I am sure the 2012-2018 EPN government will just stand out for its openness and transparency and lack of paranoia. And for its lack of asskissing.
PRD and a 2012 alliance: Things have changed
The PRD leadership for the longest time have rejected the possibility of an alliance that includes PAN for 2012 - that is, fielding a common presidential candidate.
Now, former party president and leader of the Nueva Izquierda group, the largest in the PRD, Jesús Ortega, appears to open up for the possibility of an alliance with PAN. Earlier, PAN hinted ever so slightly at the same possibility - a scenario that immediately was dismissed by secretary general Dolores Padierna.
Now even party president Jesús Zambrano says "one cannot declare the issue to be dead."
One may well accuse Ortega et al of backtracking, given their earlier dismissal of a possible 2012 alliance. One may also say that after the steamroller PRI victory past weekend, where PRI pulled every trick to win, and which was far larger than expected - well, things have changed.
And speaking of things have changed:
Let's not forget that AMLO, when seeking to negotiate a common candidate with PAN ahead of the 2000 election, even said he would vote for Fox.
Now, former party president and leader of the Nueva Izquierda group, the largest in the PRD, Jesús Ortega, appears to open up for the possibility of an alliance with PAN. Earlier, PAN hinted ever so slightly at the same possibility - a scenario that immediately was dismissed by secretary general Dolores Padierna.
Now even party president Jesús Zambrano says "one cannot declare the issue to be dead."
One may well accuse Ortega et al of backtracking, given their earlier dismissal of a possible 2012 alliance. One may also say that after the steamroller PRI victory past weekend, where PRI pulled every trick to win, and which was far larger than expected - well, things have changed.
And speaking of things have changed:
Let's not forget that AMLO, when seeking to negotiate a common candidate with PAN ahead of the 2000 election, even said he would vote for Fox.
Thursday, July 7, 2011
Gordillo scandal, part two: "I'll do if you do it"
What a week. There are many who consider Elba Esther Gordillo's stronghold on Mexico's public education sector as highly detrimental to the country's future. I wholeheartedly agree, but also want to point add that similarly, her personal party Nueva Alianza or (PANAL), is equally detrimental to Mexican democracy: It is a purely personalistic and opportunistic party that Gordillo sells -literally - to the highest bidder. It is staffed with "teachers" who receive a public salary on the tax payers' expense, yet who dedicate themselves to party work on PANAL's behalf. It is truly a perverse operation.
These past days have provided a wealth, a trove, of information on the inner dealings of PANAL and Gordillo. To recall: A couple of days ago, Miguel Ángel Yunes Linares, former director of the ISSSTE social security institute for state workers, and one of the people Gordillo was allowed to appoint as a pay-off for her support of the PAN in 2006, dropped an apparent bombshell when he claimed that Gordillo demanded 20 million pesos per month from him for PANAL, arguing that "ISSSTE is mine!" (more details here).
Gordillo responded that the accusations are "frivolous and slanderous."
These accusations should be investigated by the PGR attorney general's office, as several federal deputies have demanded. It should come as absolutely no surprise if they are true.
Yet quite a few factors do not exactly count in Yunes' - a failed candidate for Veracruz governor in 2010 - favor.
First, he only dropped the news after Gordillo had hinted at "malos manejos" or mismanagement at ISSSTE last week, suggesting that 2 billion pesos had disappeared from the institute. It hardly speaks to his credit that he did not only wait for Gordillo to strike first, but also waited four years for this alleged corruption to be known.
Second, what evidence exists? As PAN Senator José González Morfín has correctly demanded: Show us what you got.
Third, Gordillo has demanded an investigation of Yunes' period at ISSSTE. What has been Yunes' response? That he'll agree to an independent audit if at the same time there will be an investigation of Gordillo, knowing full well that such an investigation will likely never take place: She is simply too powerful now, more than two decades Carlos Salinas made her new SNTE head.
I truly hope an investigation will be launched of both Gordillo and Yunes, a former príista and ultra-loyal Gordillista-turned-panista, yet I am hardly hopeful, as everyone wants her PANAL party to back them in 2012, Calderón included.
PRD demands that PANAL loses its party registry it these accusations are true. A very fair demand, and I think also Mexican democracy would be far better off without PANAL.
Much more will come out of this scandal, that's the only thing I am pretty confident about.
Finally, what does Enrique Peña Nieto think about this issue? He prefers not to enter in these "word games" he says. That is peñanieto-speak for, "wait, let me talk with my handlers first"
These past days have provided a wealth, a trove, of information on the inner dealings of PANAL and Gordillo. To recall: A couple of days ago, Miguel Ángel Yunes Linares, former director of the ISSSTE social security institute for state workers, and one of the people Gordillo was allowed to appoint as a pay-off for her support of the PAN in 2006, dropped an apparent bombshell when he claimed that Gordillo demanded 20 million pesos per month from him for PANAL, arguing that "ISSSTE is mine!" (more details here).
Gordillo responded that the accusations are "frivolous and slanderous."
These accusations should be investigated by the PGR attorney general's office, as several federal deputies have demanded. It should come as absolutely no surprise if they are true.
Yet quite a few factors do not exactly count in Yunes' - a failed candidate for Veracruz governor in 2010 - favor.
First, he only dropped the news after Gordillo had hinted at "malos manejos" or mismanagement at ISSSTE last week, suggesting that 2 billion pesos had disappeared from the institute. It hardly speaks to his credit that he did not only wait for Gordillo to strike first, but also waited four years for this alleged corruption to be known.
Second, what evidence exists? As PAN Senator José González Morfín has correctly demanded: Show us what you got.
Third, Gordillo has demanded an investigation of Yunes' period at ISSSTE. What has been Yunes' response? That he'll agree to an independent audit if at the same time there will be an investigation of Gordillo, knowing full well that such an investigation will likely never take place: She is simply too powerful now, more than two decades Carlos Salinas made her new SNTE head.
I truly hope an investigation will be launched of both Gordillo and Yunes, a former príista and ultra-loyal Gordillista-turned-panista, yet I am hardly hopeful, as everyone wants her PANAL party to back them in 2012, Calderón included.
PRD demands that PANAL loses its party registry it these accusations are true. A very fair demand, and I think also Mexican democracy would be far better off without PANAL.
Much more will come out of this scandal, that's the only thing I am pretty confident about.
Finally, what does Enrique Peña Nieto think about this issue? He prefers not to enter in these "word games" he says. That is peñanieto-speak for, "wait, let me talk with my handlers first"
The Gordillo scandal, part one: Calderón responds - and blames Fox!
The scandal has been brewing for a few days now, ever since Elba Esther Gordillo, leader of the SNTE teacher union, confirmed some days ago what most suspected, namely that a dirty PRI-style horsetrading took place in 2006 between Gordillo and PAN, where Gordillo used her personal party PANAL to back Calderón and very likely ensure his victory in a tight race, in exchange for political positions.
As a great Associated Press rundown puts it, quoting José Antonio Crespo - the story is getting international attention - "Political analyst José Antonio Crespo said the allegations show that the old way of doing politics in Mexico hasn't changed even with ouster of the PRI."
Calderón kept silent of the issue, until now, when he claimed that no, he didn't really negotiate any thing, he merely respected an agreement made between Gordillo and outgoing president Vicente Fox.
Do you believe El Señor Presidente on this one?
Nor do I. And I can't wait to hear Fox's response to these allegations.
As a great Associated Press rundown puts it, quoting José Antonio Crespo - the story is getting international attention - "Political analyst José Antonio Crespo said the allegations show that the old way of doing politics in Mexico hasn't changed even with ouster of the PRI."
Calderón kept silent of the issue, until now, when he claimed that no, he didn't really negotiate any thing, he merely respected an agreement made between Gordillo and outgoing president Vicente Fox.
Do you believe El Señor Presidente on this one?
Nor do I. And I can't wait to hear Fox's response to these allegations.
Cherán, Michoacán, finally getting mainstream attention
Cherán, Michoacán is a remarkable tale of a village, predominantly purepechá, that on its own rose up against illegal loggings and organized crime. The city's population have been maintaining barricades and road blocks for more than two months straight, claiming that neither the municipal, state, or federal authorities are helping them fight back an onslaught from organized crime, either the Zetas or La Familia.
Here is an article from yesterday's Washington Post, by Anne-Marie O’Connor and William Booth, entitled "In Mexico, forests fall prey to crime mafias."
It follows an earlier and far more extensive story from Upsidedownworld, by Kristin Bricker, which merits another link, and yet underscores the importance of alternative media to bring important stories out in the mainstream: Mexican Community Uses Barricades to Drive Out Organized Crime and Political Parties
Here is an article from yesterday's Washington Post, by Anne-Marie O’Connor and William Booth, entitled "In Mexico, forests fall prey to crime mafias."
It follows an earlier and far more extensive story from Upsidedownworld, by Kristin Bricker, which merits another link, and yet underscores the importance of alternative media to bring important stories out in the mainstream: Mexican Community Uses Barricades to Drive Out Organized Crime and Political Parties
Los Zetas - the only drug cartel that kidnaps?
Father Alejandro Solalinde Guerra, a a very, very brave man who does invaluable work for migrants in Oaxaca, in a meeting with the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay said that Los Zetas now carry out kidnappings in twenty of Mexico's states, yet that, "as far as I know," they are the only of the drug gangs to do so.
This is of course only the testimony of one man, yet it is likely wise to listen to the opinions of someone who really works on the ground, helping migrants at shelters and along the dangerous travel routes of Oaxaca, Vera Cruz, and the southern region of Mexico.
This is of course only the testimony of one man, yet it is likely wise to listen to the opinions of someone who really works on the ground, helping migrants at shelters and along the dangerous travel routes of Oaxaca, Vera Cruz, and the southern region of Mexico.
Wednesday, July 6, 2011
PRI's resurgence, II
.... and an even better summary at Americas Quarterly on the PRI's victory by Patrick Corcoran, State Elections Solidify PRI’s Position in Mexico
PRI's resurgence covered in TIME
A very good summary article from TIME on the PRI's resurgence, by Ioan Grillo and Dolly Mascareñas:
Suddenly, Mexico's Old Ruling Party Rears a Youthful Face
Suddenly, Mexico's Old Ruling Party Rears a Youthful Face
No one is calling for PAN president's head, at least not yet
The PAN elite, represented by its National Political Commission, made it clear that it is not blaming the party's poor election results on its leader, Gustavo Madero, but rather offered its "unanimous" backing.
PRD and AMLO: Post-election reactions
While Guadalupe Acosta Naranjo and Luis Sánchez Jiménez accused AMLO of having much blame for the disastrous results this past Sunday, PRD leader Jesús Zambrano, still hopeful for some kind of reconciliation with is former presidential candidate, called for not putting the blame on individuals. Alejandro Encinas also dismissed that AMLO had any blame.
AMLO himself said such criticism "doesn't even deserve a reflection, a reply."
Yet Marcelo Ebrard made it pretty clear what he felt: "Alejandro Encinas said he didn't want an alliance, we'll do it like this, well, here are the results...."
AMLO himself said such criticism "doesn't even deserve a reflection, a reply."
Yet Marcelo Ebrard made it pretty clear what he felt: "Alejandro Encinas said he didn't want an alliance, we'll do it like this, well, here are the results...."
Tuesday, July 5, 2011
PRI's win: It hurts, and especially because of the "why"
I readily admits it hurts to see the smirking face of PRI president Humberto Moreira all over the Mexican media, following the PRI's demolishing carro completo - and, as I believe Manuel Camacho has noted a few times, not chiefly for the PRI's victory, but because of how they win: They contract as much public and private debt they can, go on a wild spending free, and leave the problems for the future, for the people to pick up the bill.
It is an irresponsibility and cynicism that angers.
Eruviel Ávila's win, with 41 percent more votes than his closes adversary, is the highest in Mexico State's history, according to Milenio.
Yes, and when Enrique Peña Nieto became governor of Mexico State, the state debt was 1.5 billion pesos.
By 2010, it was 37 billion.
It is an irresponsibility and cynicism that angers.
Eruviel Ávila's win, with 41 percent more votes than his closes adversary, is the highest in Mexico State's history, according to Milenio.
Yes, and when Enrique Peña Nieto became governor of Mexico State, the state debt was 1.5 billion pesos.
By 2010, it was 37 billion.
PRI didn't win everywhere on Sunday
In one of the four state elections Sunday, the PRI actually lost, as of counting, at least 10 municipalities, including several important urban areas, and the outcome in the state capital Pachuca is still too close to call.
That state is Hidalgo. It is the only of the four states in which the PRD and the PAN went into an alliance.
That state is Hidalgo. It is the only of the four states in which the PRD and the PAN went into an alliance.
Monday, July 4, 2011
The sad, race-to-the-bottom practice of declaring oneself winner
With the risk of blatantly generalizing, I will blatantly generalize that it hardly speaks well of candidates who, despite all exit polls, quick polls, partial counts, full counts etc counting against them with a wide margin, still declare their victory. It seems unfortunately there has gone quite a bit of inflation in this in recent years: Better to declare yourself a winner, seems to be the logic, as in the short run there is very little to lose, and in the long run, people forget whatever happened in the last election.
Yet this is not a victimless crime: The casualty is the credibility of the electoral institute, whose responsibility it is to name the person who won the most votes, while the electoral tribunal will deal with any potential impugnations and then declare the winner. By having candidates not holding back at all yet bursting out that really, they won, the credibility of these institutions are undermined.
The case in point here is Martha Elena García, the PAN candidate for governor in Nayarit. Despite that all polls - quick counts and I believe exit polls as well - indicated she was behind the winner, PRI's Roberto Sandoval Castañeda, with double digits, she had, mind you, her own poll that showed her ahead by several percentage points. And with this single poll that she claimed to have, she declared herself the winner, suffering ridicule.
AMLO's declaration on the night of July 2-3 2006, though he had promised to await IFE's verdict, is rather tame by comparison.
Yet this is not a victimless crime: The casualty is the credibility of the electoral institute, whose responsibility it is to name the person who won the most votes, while the electoral tribunal will deal with any potential impugnations and then declare the winner. By having candidates not holding back at all yet bursting out that really, they won, the credibility of these institutions are undermined.
The case in point here is Martha Elena García, the PAN candidate for governor in Nayarit. Despite that all polls - quick counts and I believe exit polls as well - indicated she was behind the winner, PRI's Roberto Sandoval Castañeda, with double digits, she had, mind you, her own poll that showed her ahead by several percentage points. And with this single poll that she claimed to have, she declared herself the winner, suffering ridicule.
AMLO's declaration on the night of July 2-3 2006, though he had promised to await IFE's verdict, is rather tame by comparison.
NYT story on Enrique Peña Nieto,
The New York Times had recently a very decent article on Enrique Peña Nieto, entitled "A Departing Governor Looks Ahead to a Bigger Prize in Mexico"
A stunning graphic from Mexico State election
A screenshot I tried to capture from El Universal's flash presentation of the Mexico State election, with apologies for the quality.
In red, the districts won by the PRI.
In red, the districts won by the PRI.
Preliminary results Mexico state elections: Nayarit, Coahuila, Hidalgo, Mexico State
Here are links to the PREP preliminary results (click on state names), updated around 2:30 AM Mexican time
Mexico State - Eruviel Ávila (PRI) ahead around 62 percent
Coahuila - Rubén Moreira (PRI) has around 60 percent
Nayarit - Roberto Sandoval (PRI) ahead around 42 percent
Hidalgo state election (municipalities only) - results not ready from the state's electoral institute yet, but PRI seems to ahead in at least 42 muncipalities, or half of the 84 in play, including the state capital Pachuca.
A great day to be a priísta.
Mexico State - Eruviel Ávila (PRI) ahead around 62 percent
Coahuila - Rubén Moreira (PRI) has around 60 percent
Nayarit - Roberto Sandoval (PRI) ahead around 42 percent
Hidalgo state election (municipalities only) - results not ready from the state's electoral institute yet, but PRI seems to ahead in at least 42 muncipalities, or half of the 84 in play, including the state capital Pachuca.
A great day to be a priísta.
Sunday, July 3, 2011
Nayarit elections: Can PRI be beat?
Here's a nice graphic from Milenio regarding the Nayarit elections. What is being elected: Governor, 30 local deputies, and 20 municipal heads. The 2011 results should be out later today at the home page of the Nayarit Electoral Insittute, IEEN.
Narcopolitics: The case of Hidalgo
In yesterday's El Universal, former gubernatorial candidate Xóchitl Gálvez revealed that the narcos offered to support her campaign with 50 million pesos, an offered she refused, but didn't report out of fear for her family.
Today Hidalgo is having another election - this time for head of the state's 84 municipalities - and Los Zetas are arguably backing candidates in particularly the Huasteca region, a Zeta stronghold.
Thanks to a 2009 electoral reform that aimed at streamlining the state elections - elections for governors at the same time as municipal elections - the new municipal heads will serve five and a half years.
Quite a prize.
Today Hidalgo is having another election - this time for head of the state's 84 municipalities - and Los Zetas are arguably backing candidates in particularly the Huasteca region, a Zeta stronghold.
Thanks to a 2009 electoral reform that aimed at streamlining the state elections - elections for governors at the same time as municipal elections - the new municipal heads will serve five and a half years.
Quite a prize.
The cost of every single vote in Mexico State? About 60 dollars
This is a quite stunning fact: According to Coparmex, a rough estimated cost of each vote in Mexico State today - including organizing the elections, party funding, etc - will be a whopping $60 - U.S. dollars, that is.
Total cost of the election: 3.6 billion Mexican pesos.
That's about a 100 percent increase from the last elections in 2005. And irony of ironies: The electoral code was modified in 2008 with the explicit purpose of reducing the cost of elections.
Keep in mind that this figure does not include any extra-official - illegal - resources spent on the election. The PRD and PAN have accused and denounced PRI of showering state money on their candidate, and surpassing any legal spending limit.
Total cost of the election: 3.6 billion Mexican pesos.
That's about a 100 percent increase from the last elections in 2005. And irony of ironies: The electoral code was modified in 2008 with the explicit purpose of reducing the cost of elections.
Keep in mind that this figure does not include any extra-official - illegal - resources spent on the election. The PRD and PAN have accused and denounced PRI of showering state money on their candidate, and surpassing any legal spending limit.
Electoral Tribunal orders Ministry of Interior to sanction Hugo Valdemar
Mexico's electoral tribunal, Tribunal Electoral del Poder Judicial de la Federación (TEPJF), ordered Mexico's interior ministry to stop dragging its feet and to sanction the Mexican Archdiocese and its venal spokesperson Hugo Valdemar, for violating Mexican law by calling on Mexicans note to vote for the PRD.
The case has been thrown back and forth between IFE and the Ministry, so one should perhaps not hold one's breath for a decision any time soon, but the TEPJF order is nonetheless a direct one.
Of note as well: TEPJF ruled as well that the responsible is not merely Valdemar, but also the Archdiocese, given that he has uttered his many anti-PRD opinions on church ground, and as a representative of the church.
The case has been thrown back and forth between IFE and the Ministry, so one should perhaps not hold one's breath for a decision any time soon, but the TEPJF order is nonetheless a direct one.
Of note as well: TEPJF ruled as well that the responsible is not merely Valdemar, but also the Archdiocese, given that he has uttered his many anti-PRD opinions on church ground, and as a representative of the church.
Saturday, July 2, 2011
Judge Édgar Elías Azar defends decision to ratify Héctor Palomares
The head of Mexico City's highest electoral tribunal TSJDF, Édgar Elías Azar, went strongly on the offensive defending not only Judge Héctor Palomares Medina, who got so severely discredited in the documentary Presunto Culpable / Presumed Guilty, and he also attacked the movie itself as "an edited move, mutilated, manipulated; this movie does not correspond with reality."
Flanked by his fellow TSJDF judges, Elías said this was the last time he'll ever speak on that topic - "ask all you want, but starting torday... the case is closed."
And:
"Judges are not alone, and the judiciary is not subject to any pressures of any kind."
He seems right on both counts.
From the movie makers: "We almost can't believe it," Presumed Guilty director Roberto Hernandez told Radio Formula. "We think it's a very bad decision."
Flanked by his fellow TSJDF judges, Elías said this was the last time he'll ever speak on that topic - "ask all you want, but starting torday... the case is closed."
And:
"Judges are not alone, and the judiciary is not subject to any pressures of any kind."
He seems right on both counts.
From the movie makers: "We almost can't believe it," Presumed Guilty director Roberto Hernandez told Radio Formula. "We think it's a very bad decision."
PANAL's leadership succession, worthy of North Korea - or Cuba
Absolutely pathetic: Elba Esther Gordillo installs her former personal secretary Luis Castro Obregón as new head of PANAL, and makes her daughter Mónica Arriola Gordillo the party's new secretary general.
And for good measure: Party delegates could vote for any new leadership option they liked, as long as it was the Obregón-Arriola list, as it was the only option available.
The Partido Nueva Alianza has today, according to its outgoing leader Jorge Kahwagi Macari, 64 local deputies, 407 councilors and 34 mayors.
Not bad for a party founded by and for Gordillo's teacher union.
And for good measure: Party delegates could vote for any new leadership option they liked, as long as it was the Obregón-Arriola list, as it was the only option available.
The Partido Nueva Alianza has today, according to its outgoing leader Jorge Kahwagi Macari, 64 local deputies, 407 councilors and 34 mayors.
Not bad for a party founded by and for Gordillo's teacher union.
Friday, July 1, 2011
Mexico City: Legislature tweaks law to block caudillista parties in Mexico City
The Mexico City legislature, Asamblea Legislativa del Distrito Federal (ALDF), approved yesterday a change in its electoral code that, if not deemed unconstitutional, is of great importance to the political scene in Mexico City.
Earlier, the ALDF passed a law stipulating that a new party would require a membership of 2 percent of the official voting list in every delegation in order to be able to register as a new party; the Supreme Court found this to be too restrictive, and rejected it.
Now, rather, according to the revised law passed, any new party will need 1.8 percent support of those listed on the official voter registry, spread over 30 of the 40 electoral districts in the Federal District. This is hardly too restrictive, and hopefully the Supreme Court will not overturn this as well.
Why does it matter? Why keep any limitations at all on the formation of new parties? While cynics might point exclusively to the interests of existing parties, who would not want new competitors, there is a very valid reason to avoid a rush of new parties: Within some delegations in Mexico City, old-style caudillos, using tons of clientelistic resources, have built up their own power bases, which given the population of Mexico City is enough to create new and highly personalistic mini-party. These are likely to be all about political opportunism and nothing about any programmatic content, offering "their" voters to the highest bidder.
By requiring that you need a certain level of support beyond the possible fiefdom of, say, Iztapalapa, the ALDF took an important step towards not only limiting political fragmentation, but also toward limiting the formation of highly clientelist electoral groupings rallying essentially behind one strongman-woman's personalistic agenda.
René Arce will not have, it seems, the personal party he dreamed of.
Earlier, the ALDF passed a law stipulating that a new party would require a membership of 2 percent of the official voting list in every delegation in order to be able to register as a new party; the Supreme Court found this to be too restrictive, and rejected it.
Now, rather, according to the revised law passed, any new party will need 1.8 percent support of those listed on the official voter registry, spread over 30 of the 40 electoral districts in the Federal District. This is hardly too restrictive, and hopefully the Supreme Court will not overturn this as well.
Why does it matter? Why keep any limitations at all on the formation of new parties? While cynics might point exclusively to the interests of existing parties, who would not want new competitors, there is a very valid reason to avoid a rush of new parties: Within some delegations in Mexico City, old-style caudillos, using tons of clientelistic resources, have built up their own power bases, which given the population of Mexico City is enough to create new and highly personalistic mini-party. These are likely to be all about political opportunism and nothing about any programmatic content, offering "their" voters to the highest bidder.
By requiring that you need a certain level of support beyond the possible fiefdom of, say, Iztapalapa, the ALDF took an important step towards not only limiting political fragmentation, but also toward limiting the formation of highly clientelist electoral groupings rallying essentially behind one strongman-woman's personalistic agenda.
René Arce will not have, it seems, the personal party he dreamed of.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)