Despite AMLO's highly active mobilization the past weeks against the proposed PRD-PRD alliance in Mexico State, the PRD state council in Edomex voted 193-88 in favor of starting official talks with PAN and other forces - that is, it approved the PRD going in coalition with other parties than the PT and Convergencia in order to try beat PRI in the state's upcoming (July 3, 2010) gubernatorial elections. The vote was overwhelmingly in favor: 193-88, or more than two thirds majority.
The vote is clearly significant in itself, as a PRD-PAN alliance is pretty much the only chance the left will have to block a new PRI governor in Mexico state from 2011-2017. Last time the party tried, in 2005, AMLO was at the pinnacle of his popularity, yet despite his barnstorming of the state in favor of his candidate Yeidckol Polevnsky Gurwitz, she barely pulled 24 percent, coming in third place behind even PAN - far behind Enrique Peña Nieto.
The 2005 election cast its shadow on yesterday's vote: First, many perredistas are painfully aware a go-it-alone PRD-PT-Convergencia candidate simply will not win. Not a snowball's chance in hell. Moreover, many in the local party structure were highly antagonized by AMLO in 2005, as he imposed his candidate and rode roughshod over the party structure by preferring his Redes Ciudadanas, or extra-party Citizen Networks, rather than the PRD proper. I've heard this expressed on many occasions from key perredistas in the state. This explains the massive 2/3 vote in favor of an alliance candidate, despite AMLO's labeling it as "treason."
Should AMLO follow through on his threats to present his own candidate, the battle is surely lost for the PRD, as well as for AMLO's own candidate -Polevnsky again, or PRD chamber of deputies group leader Alejandro Encinas - though the inevitable loss of whomever AMLO will convince to run will likely be blamed on the PRD and the "mafia."
Should AMLO be convinced not to postulate Polevnsky or Encinas, a PAN-PRD alliance has a chance, but only with a strong perredista candidate such as Senator Héctor Bautista López. While PAN has been busy building a significant party operation in Mexico State the past years, it is much more palatable for PAN supporters to back a moderate perredista than it is for PRD voters to back a PAN candidate.
Let the negotiations begin.
