Mexico's new congressional leaders

With the election today of PRD's new coordinators, all three major parties in Mexico have now chosen their congressional leaders for the foreseeable future (up to three years for the Chamber of Deputies, and six for the Senate).

PAN: For the Senate, Calderón managed to install the inept Ernesto Cordero as coordinator of the PAN's legislative group. Yet for Chamber leader, PAN chose Luis Alberto Villarreal, ex-mayor of San Miguel de Allende, Guanajuato, who is loyal to PAN leader Gustavo Madero, in conflict with Calderón over control of the party. One for each one.

For PRI, its former Senate coordinator Manlio Fabio Beltrones will now take on that role in the Chamber, while Emilio Gamboa Patrón will lead the PRI's Senate group - he was coordinator for its Chamber group 2006-9, and after that became head of CNOP, PRI's "popular sector."
Say what you will about Beltrones and Gamboa, but the "New PRI" they ain't.

For PRD, the Nueva Izquierda social-democratic faction critical of AMLO won control of the Senate group, with Miguel Barbosa Huerta. They notably also won control of the Chamber coordinator, with ex-senator  and ex-candidate of Michoacán governor Silvano Aureoles Conejo, who although he is a member of another party current (Foro Nuevo Sol) is regarded as very close to NI.

Don't expect PRD's new coordinators to follow any renewed calls for "legislative strikes," which AMLO so often proclaimed in 2007-9.

Source:
Elige PRI a coordinadores en el Congreso. El Universal, Aug. 9, 2012
PAN: Cordero y Villarreal, coordinadores en Congreso. El Universal, Aug. 14, 2012
Lanzan a “matador” al ruedo de San Lázaro. El Universal, Aug. 14, 2012
Define PRD jefes de bancadas. El Universal, Aug. 15, 2012

Narcopolitics in Michoacán, bullet form updates

The brewing narcopolitics scandal in Michoacán is receiving international attention.
In short, Milenio got hold of recorded conversations where third-in-command of La Familia Michoacana (which supposedly is no longer existent), telling villagers in the Tierra Caliente and Tuzantla area to vote for PRI.

Subsequent reactions:

* PRD president Jesús Zambano said it was evidence of narco collusion with PRI and merely the tip of the ice berg

* PRD's defeated candidate Silvano Aureoles Conejo demands election be annulled.

* Cocoa, PAN's candidate and president Calderón's sister,  demands and explanation

* So does the PRI.

* Political commentator Ciro Gómez Leyva apologizes to Cocoa for having belittled her claims of a narco vote

* SIEDO has launched an investigation

* New interior secretary Alejandro Poiré said the recordings were "very worrisome signs"

* PAN has now joined the PRD in demanding the elections be annulled.

Michoacán governor election, more results and data

* According to the PREP (preliminary results based on quick count), PRI won the governorship with 35.39 percent of the votes

* PRI won 11 local deputies for congress, PRD 8, and PAN 5

* PRI won 46 out of 113 municipalities (with PVEM alliance in several), PRD and allies 30 (down from 41), and PAN 27 (up from 20)

* 54.2 percent of voters participated.

* Silvano Aureoles Conejo, the left's candidate, says Sunday's election in Michoacán should be annulled, given what he says was massive federal intervention in the election, threats against PRD militants, and PRI collusion with organized crime.

* Do does Cocoa, president Calderón's sister and PAN's candidate. She also demands a vote-by-vote recount, and the count of 879 ballot boxes that were not counted by the PREP. I looked at the PREP and made references to these here. I think, too, these should be counted again.

* The winner according to the PREP, Fausto Vallejo Figueroa, denies any narco ties.

* Yet Manuel Camacho Solís, coordinator of the Diálogo para la Reconstrucción de México (DIA) left front of PRD, PT and MC, says the left should accept the results.

* The federal attorney general's office is investigating 42 concrete cases in relation to the election

Michoacán governor election: PRI ahead with 89% of voted counted

According to the PREP, or a program for preliminary election results contracted by Michoacán's electoral authority, Fausto Vallejo Figueroa is leading in the count to be Michoacán's next governor with 35.38 percent.
Luisa María Calderón Hinojosa is in second place with 32.67.

If confirmed, this is quite an upset: All major polls had Calderón's sister Cocoa as the favorite. It will be a huge triumph for the PRI ahead of 2012.

PRI won in all four districts of the capital Morelia, where Vallejo was governor, and the two in Uruapan. It is also ahead in Hidalgo, Zitácuaro, Apatzingán, Zinapécuaro and Múgica - 9 districts.

PAN is ahead in La Piedad, Zamora, Jiquilpan, Jacona and Tacámbaro, while PRD won Lázaro Cárdenas, Puruándiro, Zacapu, Huetamo, Maravatío, Los Reyes, Pátzcuaro and Coalcomán.

What is moreover clear, as Milenio proclaims front page in its print edition, is that the PRD lost control of the state.

Three way race in Michoacán, the atypical state

Marcelo Ebrard and Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas appeared with Silvano Aureoles Conejo, PRD's candidate for governor of Michoacán, for the campaign closing in Morelia, the state capital.

As this article in Milenio does a good job of outlining, this is truly a three-way race: PAN, PRI, and PRD all have a good chance of winning. PRD has the most extensive party structure and base, though it is hampered by the unpopular government of Leonel Godoy. PRI has the most money, and has been pouring in resources into the state, which it earlier declared as essential to winning the 2012 presidential race. PAN has the least developed party organization in Michoacán, but the candidate is president Calderón's sister, with big name recognition, and PAN has also dedicated enormous resources to win here, including repeated appearances by all its 2012 contenders. The PRD has complained that they have been competing not against a candidate, but against the federal government and its resources.

Governor candidate debate held in Michoacán - no knock outs

The three candidates to be governor of Michoacán held their first and only debate yesterday. I haven't gone through full footage yet (available here), but it appears that none of the candidates landed any knock-out blow.

The most pathetic moment appears to be PRI's Fausto Vallejo Figueroa's comments that he is already thinking about what to ask the next president for (in his judgment, Enrique Peña Nieto) for, in other words launching a "vote for me because I'll be on better terms with the national president" argument.
It hardly inspires too much confidence in his own plans, which very vague and banal: "recover the well being,"  "reconciliation," and so forth

Luisa María Calderón, the president's sister, proposed fusing the state attorney general with the secretariat of public security, to create a unified Secretary of Justice.

Silvano Aureoles Conejo, of the PRD, proposed a secretariat of citizen participation, and to strengthen the state Auditor's office.

Michoacán: Another mayor candidate steps down after threats

Elizondo Maldonado Ambriz was the PRD's candidate to be mayor of Múgica, Michoacán, but stepped down after what appears to be threats from organized crime. Antonio Soto Sánchez, spokesperson for PRD's candidate for governor Silvano Aureoles Conejo, all but confirmed this.

He is not the first: In the past weeks, mayoral candidates have also stepped down in Tumbiscatío, Indaparapeo, Churumuco, and Arteaga, as they simply are not willing to face near certain death if they defy the criminal group in control of the area.

One is hard pressed to blame them.

Both AMLO and Cárdenas back PRD candidate in Micoacán - though separately

Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas appeared with the PRD's candidate for governor, Silvano Aureoles Conejo, for a campaign event in Morelia; in nearby Pátzcuaro, AMLO held a rally for his Morena movement, also appearing with Aureoles.

Their paths did not cross.

Let's see if the support of both the PRD's historic caudillos is enough.

One major difference Mexican and U.S. political campaigning: God

Here's one major difference in campaigning between U.S. politicians and Mexican, and entirely in Mexico's favor. From Milenio's interview with Silvano Aureoles Conejo, the left's candidate to be governor of Michoacán:

"Do you believe in god?
"Very little - I am not much of a believer."

That's it - no follow-up questions, no scandal, nothing. What a fresh breath compared to the constant  groveling to the religious camps in the United States - how often does it happen that a major candidate to a major state simply states that s/he is not religious? And more so, that the candidate is not attacked for this?

Michoacán gubernatorial election: It's on, officially.

This will be a most unique election: As Milenio notes, and I concur, there has probably never been a gubernatorial election that is divided so completely in three - for PAN, PRI, and PRD.
In Michoacán, everything seems at this point as a possibility.

The candidates started yesterday the official campaign, with three strong candidates: President Felipe Calderón's sister Luisa María Calderón Hinojosa; PRD Senator Silvano Aureoles Conejo, and four-time mayor of Morelia, Fausto Vallejo Figueroa.

From yesterday on, the state government (PRD) is not allowed to publicize any public works or propaganda, nor are state officials allowed to participate in any campaigns. One can only hope that the federal government, over which the state electoral institute has no jurisdiction, will do the same: I am not too optimistic, given all the "visits" of key cabinet officials as well as the president himself to Michoacán the past weeks.

Election Day is Nov. 13.

Why Silvano Aureoles and the PRD may win in Michoacán

Here are what seems to me to be two very important factors why Silvano Aureoles may still pull off a win in Michoacán in November: As opposed to in 2007, when only Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas campaigned for Leonel Godoy, Senator Aureoles is backed by AMLO and his Morena movement, as witnessed by their common appearance this Friday. Then, on Sunday Cárdenas as well appeared together with Aureoles.

Given the continued popularity of Cárdenas and AMLO with much of the party base, at the very least this will likely drive up turnout, and help Aureoles secure his victory in what will be in any event an extraordinary and quite likely tight race.

How the left may lose Michoacán: PT presents own candidate

Bad news for left unity in Michoacán, and for the upcoming (November) gubernatorial elections:
The Partido del Trabajo (PT), the Workers Party that pretends to present itself as more radical leftwing alternative to the PRD, announced it would field its own candidate for governor, Jorge Cázares of the CNTE "alternative" teachers union, as the PRD candidate Silvano Aureoles represents "the right within the left."

I hardly believe it is an exercise in leftwing sectarianism; that would presume that PT actually have political ideals. Rather, the party is likely seeking some electoral payoff from the PRD in exchange for joining its coalition.

The PT's presence in the state is very small, and of course has no chance of winning, yet in a tight election, which the coming one is likely to be, should the PT go alone this may be enough to sink the PRD candidate.

Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard and Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas have already said they will campaign in Michoacán for Senator Aureoles. All we need now is AMLO arriving in Michoacán to back Cázares.

Michoacán: Senator Silvano Aureoles PRD's candidate for governor

Senator Silvano Aureoles appears to have triumphed in the internal PRD election in Michoacán to be that party's candidate for governor, and with a surprisingly big margin: Around more than double the votes than the runner-up, local deputy Enrique Bautista Villegas, and the PRD's national election commission says the lead is irreversible. According to La Jornada Michoacán, Bautista will, however, impugn the result.

One thing should be celebrated: There was absolutely no violence during the electoral process, where more than half a million participated.

With 67 percent of votes counted Aureoles has 108,000 vs. Bautista's 54,000. What is notable is that AMLO's preferred candidate - Fabiola Alanís Sámano - has so far only pulled around 13,000 or so. One fear within the PRDs now that rather than accepting the loss, Alanis will jump on a separate PT-Convergencia ticket in the state's general election in November.

The election was also a loss, of sorts, for the Cárdenas family - Bautista was their preferred candidate, as he was in 2007.