PRI sector seek to give Moreira immunity - a telling sign

The PRI's Confederación Nacional de Organizaciones Populares (CNOP), a corporatist leftover from its golden days and headed by party hack Emilio Gamboa Patrón, expressed support for an elected office for disgraced ex party leader Humberto Moreira, who may well be facing legal prosecution soon.

So to reiterate: Rather than letting Moreira face the accusations and prove himself innocent and clear his name, PRI wants to have Moreira elected federal deputy or senator, which offers legal immunity for persecution - admitting, ipso facto, that there is hardly no smoke without fire, and that Moreira truly has much to hide.

Coahuila Governor Humberto Moreira's fifth informe: PRI coronation

While regarded by many as the beginning of his campaign for the PRI's national presidency, the occasion of Coahuila governor Humberto Moreira Valdés's  fifth informe or report to the state congress smacked more of a coronation of Moreira as the new leader of PRI, which has been his stated goal for a while. 

It bears notice that the event, attended by thousands of supporters, drew even more PRI bigshots than Enrique Peña Nieto's informe just a few weeks back: A whopping 22 or so governors and governors-elect attended. Notably, as opposed to Enrique Peña Nieto, Moreira also is justified in boasting of significant social progress in the state during his governorship, which began in 2005. While Coahuila was certainly among Mexico's wealthiest states to begin with, but the state has succeeded in attracting 7.6 billion dollars in investment in the past five years, while notably improving health access and primary school drop-out rates. 

Moreira's most likely competitor for the PRI presidency was Emilio Gamboa Patrón, head of the PRI-affiliated Confederación Nacional de Organizaciones Populares (CNOP), yet Gamboa's calls for a "single and unity candidate" strongly suggests he has thrown in the towel. 

I've noted the past weeks that in-page internet political ads touting the achievements of Coahuila has popped up in quite a few Web pages, such as Proceso and La Jornada, clearly suggesting that Moreira's ambitions do not stop at being head of PRI. Withouth naming names, Moreira has on numerous occasions denounced the practice of using the party presidency as a trampoline to become federal deputy, senator, and of course candidate for national president (Roberto Madrazo), and he has openly pushed for changes to party rules that would ban candidates for doing so. 


This should certainly not be taken to mean that Moreira does not harbor ambitions of his own for the presidency, though it would have to wait until 2018, when he will still be in his early fifties.  As a likely part of this plan, one can expect him to try to have his brother elected as Coahuila governor in 2011, though an interim governor will most likely step in for Moreira when he officially launches his all-but-decided campaign to head the PRI. Moreira has carefully groomed his brother to succeed him, though having an interim governor for a year would at least prevent Moreira from directly handing over the governorship to his brother, and somewhat blunt the obvious charges of nepotism. 

PAN and PRD will most likely run together in a coalition against Moreira's brother in 2011, but as things stand today, appear to have little chance against the Moreira machine, which may well turn into the Moreira dynasty. 

Broad backlash to Calderón's comments on AMLO. Why did he do it?

Calderón's petty attack on AMLO is receiving quite a backlash from broad swaths of Mexico's political elite. While the ruling PAN at first supported the president's statements, some key PAN cadres such as Senator Santiago Creel and  Manuel Espino, no less - the latter head of PAN during the 2006 electoral debacle - more than implied that Calderón's remarks were unbefitting of a president. Creel dixit: "There are times to compete, and others to coincide and govern" 

Other reactions:

- Jorge Carlos Ramírez Marín, PRI deputy and president of the Chamber of deputies, said the remarks were "inopportune and unnecessary."

- The key priísta Emilio Gamboa Patrón, head of the Confederación Nacional de Organizaciones Populares (CNOP) and a contender for the PRI party presidency, said:

"What Mexico needs is unity and peace, not opening old wellsprings, and Calderón shouldn't return to talk about 2006. I think his statement was very untimely." 

Notably, various IFE councilors berated Calderón, and even the president of IFE's council, Leonardo Valdés, weighed in:

"I cannot share any indications that could cast doubt on the professional activities of the institute [IFE] to organize and aribrate elections"

IFE councilor Francisco Guerrero as well sought to foreshadow implications for 2012:

"We want an election that, although competitive, takes place within the margins of the law, and while the President as a citizen can well offer his point of view, it is important to remember that because of his office he is obligated to create conditions of unity and governability for the country."

Ouch. Given these harsh reactions, which Calderón surely must have foreseen, why did he do it? Only he could answer that question, but it is a quite ominous signal that Calderón, like Fox in 2006, will not stand on the sidelines when it comes to electing his successor as president. Will he similarly intervene against the likely candidates of Ebrard and Peña Nieto in 2012?


For now, a more pertinent worry is likely to be Michoacán, where his sister María Luisa Calderón Hinojosa is very keen on succeeding Leonel Godoy as governor in 2011: Fears exist among the state PRD that Calderón will go to considerate lengths to ensure her victory. To the perredistas, the now-infamous Michoacanazo was merely the first of more political attacks to come.  


On a side note: Chucho Ortega, PRD president, for the nth time used the occasion of Calderón's comments to reiterate there will be no PAN-PRD common presidential candidate in 2012. Ahí está.

PRI holds its last Political Council with Beatriz Paredes as party president

While hurricane Karl might affect attendance, PRI is holding its its Political Council this weekend. The entire top PRI leadership, with the notable exception of  Enrique Peña Nieto and Manlio Fabio Beltrones, its two top candidates for PRI 2012, have reported they will attend the Council deliberations, which will swear in a few new council members, debate the party's strategy toward 2012, as well as notably try to decide how to elect its new party leader after Beatriz Paredes Rangel. Quite unusually, Humberto Moreira, PRI governor of Coahuila, has already and most publicly stated his desire to be PRI's next president, warning that the next party leader  should not be anyone who merely wants to use the office it as a trampoline to become the PRI's presidential candidate in 2012. This is a thinly veiled reference to Roberto Madrazo, the infamous Tabascan who did exactly that in 2005-6, but also a possible warning to Beatriz Paredes as well, who has not ruled out a presidential bid, as well as possibly extending her mandate as PRI president. Notably, Jorge Carlos Ramírez Marín, who will preside the Chamber of Deputies the next period, is considered to be her man, in the figurative sense. 


Humberto Moreira Valdés is scheduled to end his sexenio as governor of Coahila in Dec. 2011, and he would thus cut short his term by a year should be be the new PRI leader.  Moreira might also be referring to his possible opponent Ismael Hernández Deras, who will shortly step down as governor of Durango, but as many PRI watchers have not ruled out as a possible contender for 2012, given his seeming popularity within and outside of Durango.


Other possible PRI presidency candidates are Francisco Rojas Gutiérrez, leader of PRI's parliamentary group, and Emilio Gamboa, newly elected leader of PRI's CNOP (Confederación Nacional de Organizaciones Populares), traditionally its "popular" or middle-class organization. Gamboa though is on bad terms with Paredes.


Humberto Moreira is on notably good terms with "the unnamable" (to borrow from AMLO's vocabulary) Carlos Salinas, and should Humberto Moreira manage to position himself well as PRI leader, he will likely work for the candidacy of Enrique Peña Nieto. Look for any hints of papal white smoke this weekend.