First Mexico State gubernatorial debate, available here on youtube

First Mexico State gubernatorial debate, led by Denise Maerker, available in complete form here on youtube

The effects of Ley Peña: The left can't make its platform public

One tangible effect of the highly regressive electoral legislation steamrolled through the Mexico State legislature and nicknamed Ley Peña or (Governor Enrique) Peña Nieto's law:

Given that the legislation, among other things, cut drastically short the time allowed for campaigning, the PRD-PT-Convergencia coalition behind the candidacy of Alejandro Encinas, which Friday presented its campaign platform to the Mexico State electoral institute, desisted from making the platform public, out of fear of breaking the new legislation.

Encinas:

"These reforms are unfavorable not only to debate, political discussion, and the exercise of citizen rights, but also inhibit discussion and hence political participation. The intent of these reforms is to prevent the exercise of democratic participation of citizens with political parties."

Hard to disagree here.

Mexico State: Poll numbers give PRI near majority

From Milenio:

As this graphic suggests, the PRI's commanding lead in Mexico State is unlikely to be surpassed: Eruviel Ávila is ahead with nearly 48 percent of the vote, close to a clean full majority. Combined, the PRD and PAN candidates barely scrape in at 30 percent, though it is impossible to assess whether this would have been their combined total if a coalition would have been achieved, or, with a nod to Gestalt theory, the sum would have been greater than the individual parts. 

Alejandro Encinas registers to seek PRD candidacy for Mexico State governorship

Alejandro Encinas appeared Friday in Toluca, capital of Mexico State, to register his candidacy to be PRD's candidate for governor in the upcoming elections.

Encinas brought with him a copy of his proof of residency in the state, which according to the document stretches back to 1979. It was notable how quickly this issue died down; indeed, Encinas himself for the longest used as his main reason not to seek this very candidacy that the might run into legal trouble by not fulfilling the requirements of having lived there the past years. That hardly means the issue is dead; expect a legal offensive against Encinas should he gain PRD's nomination and, to be sure, actually win the July 3 election.

Embarrassing picture of the day: Why AMLO's anti-alliance stance on "principles" ring hollow

That's the front cover Proceso magazine, March 7, 1999. "López Obrador: If in any primary Fox would win, I would vote for him." It refers to the talks between PAN and PRD to present a common presidential candidate ahead of 2000. AMLO, then PRD president, was clearly quite positive to the idea, which obviously undermines his and his backers' argument that their opposition to any PRD-PAN state alliances today are particularly principled.

Well, one might respond, this was about the  2000 election, where the opposition wanted to end a 71-year old rule of the PRI - surely this is different than today's situation? Yes, that's correct - but in that 1) we are not talking of the national level, but on a state-level alliance, and 2) in Mexico State, the pro-alliance forces within the two parties want to end what is now an uninterrupted 82-year long reign of the PRI, which in this state has used any means at its disposal to cling to power, and will almost inevitably succeed again in doing so if the PRD-PAN alliance fails.

There are many valid arguments, and many less so, why AMLO and his backers oppose a PRD-PAN alliance. But principled their opposition is not.

Alfredo del Mazo officially wants to be governor in Mexico State

I've long regarded Alfredo del Mazo as the most likely anointed candidate to succeed Enrique Peña Nieto as governor of Mexico State, not the least because he is virtually Peña Nieto's Doppelgänger.

Now, from del Mazo's mouth:

"Today I am telling all residents of Mexico State that I do want to be governor. I have a conviction of vocation of service; I have lived it at my own home: both my father and my grandfather worked for the state and helped it grow."

I would be expecting the proclamation of del Mazo's "unity candidacy" any time now.

Campaign for the PRD-PAN Mexico State vote on alliance is on

The campaign for the PRD-PAN vote in Mexico State over a possible alliance for the July 3 gubernatorial elections is on, and so is its Web page, where results of the March 27 vote will be posted.

Again: this is a campaign to promote turnout for the March 27 vote - the "Yes" is in favor of merely holding the poll, open to any registered voter.

Here's the logo (in a seeming family-value oriented format!) of the campaign:

"For those who are afraid - of you"

The wording of the March 27 vote over on PRD-PAN alliance in Mexico State

The vote will be open to all voters, not just registered PAN and PRD members, and will take place March 26. Here is the actual wording of the single question that will be asked:

"For the next gubernatorial election in Mexico State, would you agree to an alliance between the PAN and the PRD that would propose a candidate with a common program for government?"

As simple as that.

Mexico State poll figures: Plenty of ammunition for AMLO's opponents

Some interesting figures from today's El Universal:

* 51 percent of the population rejects a PAN-PRD alliance, while a whopping 70 percent of PRD members and 61 percent of PAN members favor an alliance. Any wonder why AMLO fears actually asking the people, in the scheduled poll, whether such an alliance should proceed?

* Any PRI option is favored over any candidate not backed by both PAN and PRD

* But 42 percent of the polled say they could vote for a PAN-PRD-PT-Convergencia candidate, which is a higher percentage than that achieved by any PRI candidate

* Forty-three percent declares themselves independent; only 42 percent says they are unlikely to change their choice = Massive uncertainty, three months ahead.

Here is the direct link to a pdf file with range of scenarios and breakdowns.

Also, note that Josefina Vázquez Mota again declared she would not run for Mexico State governor.

She clearly has her eyes set on something bigger.

Convergencia infighting in Mexico State

The Mexico State branch of the party Convergencia is in deep trouble: Massive internal conflicts and infighting among its factions, though over issues that have little to do with ideology.

On the national level, Convergencia is nominally one of the staunchest defenders of Andrés Manuel López Obrador, chiefly due to the fact that the party was going electorally extinct but managed to save its party registry by attaching itself to AMLO's movement. Yet in Mexico State, the party has notably voted with the PRI and Enrique Peña Nieto on a range of occasions, perhaps most infamously when it even backed the vote in the state legislature over the Ley Peña that recently skewed the electoral playing field in favor of the Mexico State governor. One may only speculate in what the party got in return.

In any case, the national party appointed Alejandro Chanona a special delegate to intervene in the state branch, which adamantly opposes any alliance with the PAN, aligning it perfectly, yet again, with the interests of Enrique Peña Nieto.

Mexico and the negation of reality

Early chroniclers of Mexico often noted that they had never been in a country where so often people spoke of the virtues and importance of following the law, yet that to such a remarkable degree went on to completely disregard it.

I find one parallel to this in the various interviews the past days with the PRI front runners to replace Enrique Peña Nieto as governor of Mexico: All deny the personal ambitions, as they are desperately jocking for positions behind the scenes, while they at the same time outwardly emphasize it really only is a case of what is best for the party and the state - no personal ambitions here!

Latest in the line of denial: Ricardo Aguilar, head of the PRI in the state:

Q: "Would you like to be a candidate?
A: "It is not a personal issue, as I have said before. At this point it will be whomever best suits the party, and best suits Mexico State."

Right.

Polls favor PRD-PAN alliance in Mexico state; vote to be held in a month

Luis Sánchez Jiménez, the very able leader of PRD in Mexico State, announced that the citizen poll to decide on a possible PRD-PAN alliance will be held in a month, between March 6-16.

The vote will be organized by Alianza Cívica and the NGO Propuesta Cívica. Sánchez Jiménez noted that a Feb. 1 IPSOS poll revealed that the mexiquenses back an alliance 45-31, with 24 undecided.

Note, though, that the vote will only be open to registered PAN and PRD members, not the society-at-large.
Sánchez Jiménez has declared the PRD in Mexico State, which supports a PRD-PAN alliance, will respect a loss in the poll. Andrés Manuel López Obrador has not made any similar promise, but on the contrary openly declared he will oppose an alliance in any case, despite all his rhetoric of listening to the "people."

PRI's dirty war in Mexico State has started: Antorchistas provide bus loads of potosinos

Police in Mexico State, to their credit, intercepted at least three bus loads of people from the state of San Luis Potosí, when they arrived in Mexico State to change, en masse, their residency from SLP to the colonias of Tultitlán, Villa Nicolás Romero and Atizapán de Zaragoza - areas where the PRI-affiliated "social movement" Antorchistas are strong. Ricardo Medina, in charge of a IFE branch where the potosinos wanted to change their address, said it was "very unusual" to see people doing so in this manner - quite an understatement!

It seems fairly obvious that this is just one more shot in PRI's dirty war to retain control of Mexico State. Through the Antorchistas, PRI is busing in loads of outsiders, changing their registry so that they can later vote in the state for the upcoming election. Already, more than 90 changes of residency were registered the past days in this particular IFE branch alone.

Indeed, María Eva García Hernández, an Antorchista leader, was traveling in one of the buses, but when approached by media denied any links to the group, and quickly disappeared from the scene.

Five months ahead of the election, the PRI's dirty war is well on its way.

For real this time? Encinas would accept PAN alliance in Mexico State

There's been a lot of back and forth regarding the willingness of lack thereof of Alejandro Encinas to accept an alliance with PAN should a consulta popular or vote among both parties' members support it.

Yet in a meeting with Nueva Izquierda, the social-democratic and largest faction of the PRD from which its national president hails from, Encinas declared he would accept an alliance with PAN if the people wants so.

That is pretty important news, and vastly more significant  than the PT's public refusal, also announced  yesterday, to engage in any alliance with the PAN; this "Workers Party," duly in quotation marks, will join the alliance if Encinas does so.

(and a side note: El Universal reported the first story, while La Jornada only reported the second...)

Alejandro Encinas: A possible, but not likely, winner in Mexico State

Alejandro Encinas appears to have taken care of his legal woes surrounding the residency requirement in Mexico State - he used to live there, but moved to the Distrito Federal years ago - and now quite openly talks about his possible candidacy in Mexico State's gubernatorial elections.

His announcement, of sorts, have been greeted with much enthusiasm, and for a reason: Encinas is notably popular with the PRD base, both with the andresmanuelistas, as well as with many of the more moderate center-left members, as Encinas, lest we forget, politically speaking was always a moderate, until he latched on to the AMLO camp, more a product of personal loyalties than ideological congruency.

To recap, what counts in his favor:
1) Possibility to unify the non-PRD left - PT and Convergencia would back him
2) Possibility to unify the PRD - both the social democrats/socialists and the AMLO movement-party populists would back him.
3) Marcelo Ebrard is a strong supporter.

Yet what counts against:
1) PAN quite divided over backing him. National-level PAN party leadership much more supportive than the Mexico State branch, many of whom are highly negative.
2) Yet most importantly: Encinas will not go in alliance with PAN.

The latter point means that, unless the PAN rolls over on its back, does not postulate its own candidate, and tell all its voters to vote for the left, there will be no PAN-PRD common candidate, which as far as I can see is the only possible way the PRI can be beaten in Mexico State.

I find this scenario extremely unlikely. Though one precedent does exist: In Guerrero, the PAN's candidate for governor is basically only doing a symbolic campaign, all but telling his backers openly to vote for the left candidate, so as not to suck voters away from that camp. Yet given PAN's very real strength in Mexico State... again, I just don't see this happening.

National PAN leadership also consider abstaining in Mexico State

Posturing it may certainly be, but I find it nonetheless notable that even PAN's secretary general, the party's national second-in-command, Cecilia Romero, affirmed that also the national party structure appears to consider not participating in the July 3, 2011 Mexico State gubernatorial elections, though she pointedly noted that no decision has been taken; that one will in any case be in the hands to the party's national executive committee (CEN).

PAN reiterates threat to boycott Mexico State elections

PAN federal deputy Octavio Germán, head of the party's Mexico State branch, reiterated today that the party, with the PRD, may boycott the Mexico State elections, arguing that the election is being organized by people servile and partial to Governor Enrique Peña Nieto.

In particular, the election councilor Juan Carlos Villareal, head of the all-important electoral  Comisión de Organización y Capacitación, or commission for organization and professional training, is singled out as running Peña Nieto's errand, rather than serving as an impartial actor.

Mexico State elections most expensive of 2011: 1.673 billion pesos

Given its status as the most populous entity in Mexico, with 10.5 million potential voters, it is hardly a surprise that the upcoming Mexico State elections will the most expensive this year, at a cost of 1.673 billion pesos. Let us hope it is money well worth spending and that they will be free, fair, democratic, and equitable.

Here´s a nice story from La Jornada breaking down the spending in this and other states.

Dramatic turn of events in Mexico State: PAN and PRD may drop out of race

cThe leaders of the local branches of the PAN and PRD in Mexico State, Germán Olivares and Luis Sánchez Jiménez respectively, announced that given the skewed playing field resulting from the infamous Ley Peña introduced by Governor Enrique Peña Nieto to disadvantage the opposition, as well as the control by PRI of both the state´s electoral institute and electoral tribual, the parties are considering withdrawing from the race entirely. This happened after listening to the discourses of the Mexico State electoral institute (IEEM) councilors Juan Carlos Villareal, Jesús Jardón Nava, José Martínez Vilchis and Policarpo Montes de Oca, who in essence fully dismissed PAN´s and PRD´s concern regarding the election. The four councilors are fully identified with the PRI, and make out 4 out of the 7 councilors on the IEEM.

This announcement is quite dramatic. According to the party leaders, the executive committees of PAN and PRD will this week evaluate whether they will actually withdraw from the contest.

One worst case scenario coming to mind: PAN and PRD withdraws, while AMLO, convinced as always that "the people" is with him, runs with PT, loses badly, yet his participation legitimizes a 75-percent victory in favor of the PRI candidate.