Calderón: "I relieved hunger." No, you didn't.

The delusions of grandeur of Felipe Calderón have grown ever greater the past years. Given that he is only weeks away from leaving office - he has already moved out of the Los Pinos presidential residence as a gesture to the incoming president, Enrique Peña Nieto (as opposed to, say, Vicente Fox, who moved the day before) - we were only right to expect some further messianic pronunciations in these days.

The most recent, just days ago, pronounced in the first person singular:  That he greatly relieved hunger on his watch. He further declared, in all modesty, that "I learned.. that the duty of any public servant is to serve." A breathtaking enlightenment!

As for his "I relieved hunger" claim, here's an excerpt from a coming book from yours truly:

Salvador Escobedo Zoletto, head of the successful poverty-alleviating Oportunidades program, confirmed that the number of poor in Mexico had increased from 42.6 to 47.4 million in the years 2006-2008, or almost 5 million during the first third of the Calderón sexenio. Disturbingly, the number of people who had moved into the “extreme poverty” category had risen from 13.8 to 18.2 million, and the program reported increases in malnourishment and anemia. The figures were particularly shocking as they did not even reflect the full impact of the economic crisis that began in 2009 and lasted almost through 2010. The United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean noted that in the region, only in Mexico and Honduras, which had experienced a coup in 2009, did poverty rise; elsewhere, market-economic growth coupled with expansive social programs had made life better for ever more people. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), which Mexico joined in 1994, instead criticized the Calderón government for growing inequality, lack of investment in human capital, and few social benefits, which in Mexico made up only 7 percent of income after taxes, against an OECD average of 12 percent

Source:
Alivié el dolor del hambre: FCH. El Universal, Oct. 20, 2012.

“En dos años, 4 millones 800 mil pobres más, dice Oportunidades.” Milenio, March 2, 2011
“Cae pobreza en AL.” El Universal, Nov. 30, 2011
“Aumenta en México la desigualdad social.” El Universal, Dec. 6, 2011

Calderón, visiting professor at Harvard

According to a political gossip column in El Universal, soon-to-be ex president Felipe Calderón's next residence - the subject of much speculation these days - will indeed be outside of Mexico, specifically in Cambridge, Massachusetts. He will give lectures as visiting professor at Harvard.

He holds himself a master's degree in public administration from Harvard's John F. Kennedy School of Government, from as recently as 2000.

If Calderón will indeed end up teaching at Harvard, one can safely assume that this will also entailing beefing up campus security.

Source:
Bajo Reserva. El Universal, Oct. 20, 2012

Calderon "blind" to torture, new Amnesty report

Amnesty International's new report on Mexico is tough reading for Mexico's president. In criticizing his administration's human rights policy, the report concludes,

The government of Felipe Calderón has prioritised public security and combating organize crime, but this has in effect resulted in turning a blind eye to widespread human right violations.

In particular, the human rights group criticizes the Calderón administration's passivity toward "endemic" torture carried out by security forces against detainees, which has increased drastically the past years.

See the press release here, and the report, in pdf form, here,

Source:
Known abusers, but victims ignored: Torture and ill-treatment in Mexico. Amnesty International, 2012

Mexico's labor reform... screeches to a halt

Some quite interesting dynamics regarding president Calderón's proposed Labor Reform / Reforma laboral recently.

A few weeks ago, Calderón sent the reform to the Chamber of Deputies using the "preferred initiative" clause, which given changes to the Constitution a few months ago meant Congress had to act on it before the end of this month, or else it would pass automatically - essentially a "fast-track" provision.

It did. El Universal reports today that the labor reform has come to a screeching halt, where already key provisions have been changed or taken out by the the receiving commission.
Here's a nice graphic on the exact changes, so far:



The PAN has strongly backed the reform, the PRD and other left forces strongly opposed it, with the PRI quite split. PRD and PRI have also found positive aspects of the reform, though they certainly do not agree on what those are.

The PRD agreed to items such as democracy, accountability, and transparency within unions - a rarity in Mexico - but charged it a smokescreen to cover up the reform's real pro-business agenda. Indeed, it is a key component of the reform to loosen labor regulations, making it easier to hire and fire, but it is far from clear what this entails. Reuters noted the reform seeks to "often Mexico's antiquated labor laws and force its trade unions to become more transparent," though this reads a bit more like a government press release than an analysis of the reform. I have yet to find the full proposal online to look at it more closely.

The business council, the CCE, said it approved of the reform "without reservations" but also said it supported looking at proposals from the PRD.

AMLO claimed the reform was part of a deal between Calderón and Peña Nieto, but as usual whenever AMLO makes a declaration, he has little factual evidence for anything. It sure may be, though - and the interesting part is not so much that Peña Nieto did indeed back the reform, but that big sectors of the PRI, including the group around Manlio Fabio Beltrones, opposed sections of it on union transparency, exactly as they know well that these initiatives could greatly undermine PRI strength in the far from democratic unions still attached to the party. PRI unions have, for sure, greatly opposed the reform.

Why did Did Peña Nieto back it openly if he knew PRI would likely oppose it? Is he more of a reformist than imagined, or was it merely a ploy to buy some cover? It will in any case be very interesting to see how the relations will develop between the incoming president and his party, which is a far more heterogeneous coalition than they were last time the PRI held power, 1994-2000.

As for his initiatives, Peña Nieto may find that he will also have a formidable opponent in Congress in his very own party.

Source:
Sindicatos rechazan someterse a auditoría. El Universal, Sept. 3, 2012
PRD alista cambios a reforma laboral. El Universal, Sept. 19, 2012
Empresarios impulsan aval a iniciativa de FCH. El Universal, Sept. 18, 2012
PRD no se levantará de mesa de negociación. El Universal, Sept. 21, 2012
Oposición rechaza la reforma laboral. El Universal, Sept. 18, 2012
Iniciativa traerá frustración y resentimiento: AMLO. El Universal, Sept. 20, 2012
Mexico's Pena Nieto optimistic on labor reform bill. Reuters, Sept. 19, 2012

Calderón signs thinned-out political reform

Calderón's political reform - it is referred to as the political reform, as it was originally a relatively broad-reaching and comprehensive proposal when it was launched in 2009, and is the only major such during his sexenio - was signed by the president last week. It includes 8 components:

* Citizen initiatives (to be introduced into Congress)
* Independent candidacies (but not for president)
* Popular consultations allowed (referenda)
* "Preferential initiative" from the president (a type of fast-track authority where president can send two initiatives per congressional period to be voted on within 30 days)
* Review of the public accounts prolonged one month
* Senate will ratify regulatory organs of telecommunications, energy, and economic competition
* Presidential succession established if something happens to the executive (the Interior Secretary would take over until Congress names an interim or substitute president)
* Alternative ways for presidential swearing-in (recall 2006 here)

Key original components that Congress removed from the reform, and which interior secretary Alejandro Poiré designated "pending," are: reelection of lawmakers and mayors, reducing number of lawmakers, a second round in the presidential election, allowing Supreme Court to present law initiatives, presidential veto over budget, and others.

Here's a graphic from El Universal on the changes:

El Universal

Source:
Ocho cambios en materia política. El Universal, Aug. 9, 2012
Calderón firma decreto de la reforma política. El Universal, Aug. 9, 2012
Promulga Calderón la reforma política. La Jornada, Aug. 9, 2012

Calderón ignores Senate, signs ACTA

Just a few days ago, the European Union rejected the Anti-Counterfeiting Trade Agreement (Acta): Its parliament voted a massive 478-39 against what is being presented as an anti-piracy initiative but that risks seriously stifling freedom on the Web.

In Mexico, president Calderón made no indications at all he intended to sign ACTA, and the Mexican Senate in any case unanimously advised him against it and to consult it, especially given the massive rejection in the European Union, as it arguably goes against Mexico's constitution

But no: Calderón decided to sign the agreement anyway. The Senate is very upset, and rightly so: The president has from the beginning kept Congress in the dark, not even bothering to inform it that he had started the ACTA negotiations in the first place. He just happened to as well keep mum of his intentions to do so until after the election, given the unpopularity of the legislation.

Beyond being classically Calderón - an absolute tone-deafness to any criticism and utter unwillingness to accept any mistake - a larger question is: With all of Mexico's current woes, is really promoting anti-pirate legislation pushed by U.S. media companies truly the best way to spend the last months of a truly mediocre presidency?

Source:
Ola de críticas contra Calderón por suscribir en lo oscurito el ACTA. La Jornada, July 13, 2012
Es un ataque a la libertad de expresión y un freno a la movilización social. La Jornada, July 13, 2012

How Calderón destroyed PAN

A very recommended read from sinembargo.mx and Alejandro Páez Varela on the stunning collapse of PAN on Calderón's watch, playfully entitled "It's Calderón, stupid."

He reminds us what he did:

Fue Felipe Calderón el que hizo funcionarios de primer nivel del PAN a dos incondicionales que son una bofetada para la mayoría de los ciudadanos: Juan Molinar Horcasitas y Cecilia Romero...
Fue Felipe Calderón el que dio larga vida a Elba Esther Gordillo (y a otros líderes sindicales corruptos) y le permitió transitar sin dificultad hasta un siguiente sexenio, en el que ha comprado, otra vez, impunida...
Fue Felipe Calderón el que dio larga vida a Elba Esther Gordillo (y a otros líderes sindicales corruptos) y le permitió transitar sin dificultad hasta un siguiente sexenio, en el que ha comprado, otra vez, impunida...
Fue Felipe Calderón el que convirtió en la voz del PAN a un golpeador repugnante como Javier Lozano; el que entregó a sus amigos de pachanga la imagen del país y del mismo partido; fue Calderón el que ordenó expulsar a las voces disidentes (en un partido fundado por el pensamiento disidente) y fue Calderón el que lo puso, en 2012, en manos de ineptos pero muy compadres.

In short, Calderón, in complete control of PAN with his wife Margarita Zavala since 2006, bear the brunt of blame for PAN's destruction. Don't expect Calderón to express even the slightest hint of self-criticism: He has not once did this since July 2, 2006 - why start now?

Source:
Alejandro Páez Varela: Es Calderón, estúpidos. Sinembargo.mx, July 9, 2012.

Noroña, a cliche waiting to happen

Gerardo Fernández Noroña is for many the face of the most radical, intransigent sectors of the Mexican left, improbably elected federal deputy in 2009 for the North Korea-praising Workers Party (PT), but before that a long-time radical as head of a social movement-based group within the PRD.

His antics both in the PRD, which he left in 2008, and as a deputy are many (he once threw himself around he feet of president Ernesto Zedillo and refused to let go), but he is perhaps most known as an ardent defender of Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) and a proponent of the "fraud" claim of 2006.

Now the cliché is served on a silver platter: más papista que el Papa, more catholic than the pope:

In response to AMLO's recent declaration that he has "forgiven" Felipe Calderón,  for 2006, Noroña (as he is most commonly known), now threatening to break with AMLO unless he explains what he means by that - is it a recognition of Calderón's legitimacy as president? - and demanding that he show congruence and firmness. Yes, AMLO is not radical enough for his political children.

 AMLO being accused of going soft on Calderón, by one of his own - it is hard to know what historical analogy to pick given the range of options.

Let's for now stick with the French one: Noroña, the Jacobin. I am not even the slightest surprised.

AMLO: I've forgiven Felipe Calderón

In an interview with the Spanish El Pais, AMLO said he had forgiven Calderón for the 2006 election, and that he would not seek to reopen any investigation into that election, because there is already a "verdict." Which one is that, one might ask?

He also notes, "I've evolved, I have more knowledge of the reality because I have traveled the country," though he doesn't really tell us what new lessons he has learned, or any self criticism made. I would really like to have seen some.

In any case, the interview is well worth a read.

Unemployment in Mexico, 4.97 percent

President Calderón boasts on Twitter that unemployment in Mexico is 4.79 percent, "the lowest of the OECD countries." Well, as El Universal points out, and represented by this graph, that's still quite a bit more than when he came into power.

Is Juan Sabines a dark-horse PAN-PRD candidate for 2012?

Yesterday, Felipe Calderón went to the pro-business Council of the Americas yesterday, where he received the Gold Insigne award, its highest distinction.

Who accompanied him? His wife, his secretary of tourism - and Juan Sabines.

Juan Sabines, the governor of Chiapas, continues to baffle me. He is greatly criticized by many social organizations on the left, and has a rocky relationship with the party that had him elected (PRD), though he continues to rake in on a range of international awards for poverty fighting and environmental protection.

(he broke with his party in 2006 to immediately recognize Calderón's July 2 electoral victory)

In particular his backing of the UN's flagship emissions reduction/forest preservation program has attracted lots of attention internationally. I confess I still am withholding judgment on Sabines' government, as I am simply not familiar enough with them, and have not yet fully heard the other side.

But I have noted that mainstream Mexican newspapers have the last months continuously printed the press releases of the Chiapas government as if they were "news" stories - in particular Milenio, but notably also La Jornada. Their decision I think can be ascribed to, well, at times failing judgment on part of some copy editors. But for his part, Sabines is making a tremendous effort, albeit low level, to spread the achievements, real or not, of the Chiapas state government.

Sabines' term as governor is set to expire in 2012. I wonder if he has any higher ambitions, and even more if he has any friends in high places.

Sharp Calderón response to Fox's "truce" suggestion: It is your fault

Recently, former president Vicente Fox notably called for a "truce" of some kind with the criminal gangs fighting the Mexican government, and each other.

Calderón yesterday offered a rebuke that could hardly be harsher, essentially stating that Mexico is in this situation because of the truce Fox gave these organizations: "to the extent that one did not act with determination against the criminals, they were expanding in networks all around the country."

Essentially: It is Fox' fault for not having taken them on.

So much for the party unity that prominent PAN members have been calling for: It is hard to image the relations between the current and former presidents being any colder.

Calderón, lame duck by the figures: No law approved since last November

An interesting article in Milenio well worth a read, as it not only details how Calderón by the figures has become pretty much a lame duck, but also how much more successful Fox was in at least the number of proposals passed in congress:

* Last time the Mexican Congress voted over an initiative from Calderón was November 2010
* 30 proposals are stalled, including major initiatives such as the Unified Command of the police; the National Security Law; the Reform of the State initiative; the anti-money laundering bill; and many more.

Calderón is a lame duck and knows it: Only five proposals have been submitted in 2011.

Elba Esther Gordillo's effect on 2006 a myth?

A very interesting article in today's El Universal, by CIDE researcher and political scientist José Antonio Crespo.

In a nutshell: While Elba Esther Gordillo certainly made a pact with Calderón in 2006, in an unseemly votes-for-political positions, the value of her votes are vastly exaggerated.

Why? While it is well known that her party PANAL received far more votes for its list of national deputies than for its presidential candidate - herein was the very bargain, where the SNTE-organized teachers and their families would vote for Calderón for president and their own party for lawmakers - yet a a forthcoming study by Javier Aparacio, one of CIDE's very sharpest minds, now reveals that of the SNTE/PANAL teachers, only 22 percent actually followed the order to so, while 27 percent voted for AMLO.

What does this mean? That  Calderón paid a very heavy price for very little, and that Gordillo's bargaining power with regards to her PANAL party may be a castle made of sand: She does not deliver.

Party leaders, take note.

The Gordillo scandal, part one: Calderón responds - and blames Fox!

The scandal has been brewing for a few days now, ever since Elba Esther Gordillo, leader of the SNTE teacher union, confirmed some days ago what most suspected, namely that a dirty PRI-style horsetrading took place in 2006 between Gordillo and PAN, where Gordillo used her personal party PANAL to back Calderón and very likely ensure his victory in a tight race, in exchange for political positions.

As a great Associated Press rundown puts it, quoting  José Antonio Crespo - the story is getting international attention - "Political analyst José Antonio Crespo said the allegations show that the old way of doing politics in Mexico hasn't changed even with ouster of the PRI."

Calderón kept silent of the issue, until now, when he claimed that no, he didn't really negotiate any thing, he merely respected an agreement made between Gordillo and outgoing president Vicente Fox.

Do you believe El Señor Presidente on this one?
Nor do I. And I can't wait to hear Fox's response to these allegations.

On Calderón's government secretaries / ministers of the interior

El Universal has a useful article on Calderón's secretarias de gobernación, equivalent of interior ministers, of which there have been four so far. The article highlights a worrisome point: Not only does this represent lack of continuity on the top - 13 months tenure on average - but also a constant reappointment of personnel below (the article suggests a number of 40 "key functionaries")

This can´t possibly be good for continuation of policy, and institutional learning.

Calderón didn't know of the operation against Jorge Hank Rhon?

Felipe Calderón told Javier Sicilia he didn't know of the operation against Jorge Hank Rhon, where the army apprehended the former Tijuana mayor on weapons charges.

Calderón wanted to "repress" 2006 sit-in protests in Mexico City

Alejandro Encinas, the PRD candidate for governor  in Mexico State, who in 2006 was interim mayor of Mexico City, said that president-elect Felipe Calderón wanted then-interior minister, now-deceased Carlos Abascal, to "repress" the 2006 plantón in Mexico City, where hundreds of thousands of PRD and AMLO supporters protested what they argued was a fraudulent election, through a massive sit-in in the main avenue Reforma, demanding a recount.

Yet the interior minister replied, "Felipe, you are still not president."

Los Pinos vehemently denied this revelation. It is truly remarkable if the claim is true.

On Calderón´s barrage against the PRI, and PRI's reply

President Felipe Calderón's commencement speech at Stanford was quite notable in its direct attack on the PRI's rule (1929-2000), referring directly to its repression and massacres - an historic reality hard to deny.

PRI, quite naturally, took much offense against the speech, held in English, e.g. the PRI's parliamentary group asking the president "not to get into the electoral boxing ring," and accusing him of planting "hatred and division."

One comment was particularly disingenuous: Emilio Gamboa, now head of PRI's CNOP, complained that Calderón was acting in a partisan manner and not as the president of all Mexicans.

Of course he is partisan - he was elected, in a minority vote, as a blatantly partisan choice. This is of course the very problem with a presidential regime - that a president is both a party option, with a more or less clear platform and ideology, as well as the "head of the nation." Gamboa's criticism as such is really just a critique of presidentialism per se.

Now, if PRI is serious in this critique, it should take the consequences of this line of reasoning and join what many in the PRD have long demanded: that Mexico become a parliamentary democracy, with a prime minister beholden to parliament, and with a ceremonial head of state, rather than a presidential regime.

Now, that'll be the day.

Madero vs. Calderón

Yet another case in point that relations between president Felipe Calderón and PAN president Gustavo Madero are hardly stellar: Following the proclamations of support by a range of prominent PAN members, linked directly to the president and his wife, of the presidential ambitions of Ernesto Cordero, Madero remarked in an interview that the letter was "inconvenient," "doesn't contribute" to the process," and "creates inappropriate pressure."

Abraham González Uyeda, who in 2004 lent his ranch to Felipe Calderón for his candidacy declaration, said he would gladly lend it to Cordero for his announcement.

Will history again be repeated as farce when it comes to the PAN presidential nomination?