The sad, race-to-the-bottom practice of declaring oneself winner

With the risk of blatantly generalizing, I will blatantly generalize that it hardly speaks well of candidates who, despite all exit polls, quick polls, partial counts, full counts etc counting against them with a wide margin, still declare their victory. It seems unfortunately there has gone quite a bit of inflation in this in recent years: Better to declare yourself a winner, seems to be the logic, as in the short run there is very little to lose, and in the long run, people forget whatever happened in the last election.

Yet this is not a victimless crime: The casualty is the credibility of the electoral institute, whose responsibility it is to name the person who won the most votes, while the electoral tribunal will deal with any potential impugnations and then declare the winner. By having candidates not holding back at all yet bursting out that really, they won, the credibility of these institutions are undermined.

The case in point here is Martha Elena García, the PAN candidate for governor in Nayarit. Despite that all polls - quick counts and I believe exit polls as well - indicated she was behind the winner, PRI's Roberto Sandoval Castañeda, with double digits, she had, mind you, her own poll that showed her ahead by several percentage points. And with this single poll that she claimed to have, she declared herself the winner, suffering ridicule.

AMLO's declaration on the night of July 2-3 2006, though he had promised to await IFE's verdict, is rather tame by comparison.

Nayarit: No excuses for AMLO, yet betrayal of party

In Nayarit, the PRD is not running in alliance with the PAN. Its candidate, Guadalupe Acosta Naranjo, has been a man of the left his entire life, never a priísta, and rejected the suggestion he would decline in favor of PAN's candidate, Martha Elena García.

Yet AMLO, rather than backing the PRD candidate, travels to Nayarit to back Nayar Marroquín, candidate of PT and Convergencia. Not only is it a completely useless undertaking - his vote intention is minimal - but he will also take votes from the PRD candidate. So why is AMLO, a former party president and the PRD's 2006 candidate, doing this? This time there is absolutely no excuse, as in the past, where he opposed PAN-PRD alliance candidates.

This is the true face of AMLO showing: A man who have absolutely no compunction about betraying his old party, as long as it benefits his own, highly personalistic project.

Nayarit polls, gubernatorial election: PRI ahead 49%

The most recent Nayarit polls:

Roberto Sandoval Castañeda, PRI: 49%
Martha Elena García, PAN: 33%
Guadalupe Acosta Naranjo, PRD: 17%
Nayar Mayorquín, PT/Convergencia: 1 %

Direct link to detailed .pdf file on the poll here.

Nayarit ironies

After increasing reports that the PAN-PRD alliance in Nayarit is coming to an end, for the time being, a time-out: The parties agreed to a new poll to determine the coalition's candidate.

It is worth nothing the irony here: PAN reportedly backed out when it failed to have PRD legislator Martha Elena García made its official candidate, in favor of also PRD legislator Guadalupe Acosta Naranjo: PAN clearly wants to go with the wife of the former governor (also with a PAN past) rather than Acosta Naranjo, a man who has never been a member of PRI or PAN, but is a founding member of the PRD with a long trajectory on the left before that.

But guess who AMLO's incondicionales want to be the candidate? Martha Elena García, the one favored by PAN, who in the end might be the party's candidate! The IDN faction, among others, who is led by the Bejarano/Padierna couple, were strong backers of García, and adamantly opposes Acosta. So much for their anti-PAN rhetoric. Martha Elena García, despite elected as a PRD legislator, is to boo not even a member of the PRD.

AMLO, to clarify, came out to throw plague on both houses, instead backing a PT-Convergencia candidate, Nayar Mayorquín, who has absolutely no chance of being elected - again showing that he could care less if the PRI will come out on top, as long as his opponents within the party don't come out on top.

Here's a useful interview with Guadalupe Acosta Naranjo.

Nayarit PAN-PRD alliance officially registered

While the battle over a possible PRD-PAN alliance in Mexico State will rage on for the coming weeks, in Nayarit the PRD and PAN agreed to officially register their electoral alliance with the state electoral institute. The coalition's name is "Nayarit nos une," and will dispute the governorships, 20 mayoralties, 30 local legislative seats, and 138 local governing councils at play.
Likely the candidate will be a PRD member, but it is entirely open whether it will be Guadalupe Acosta Naranjo or Martha Elena García Gómez, both national deputies; the former a lifelong activist on the left, the latter the wife of a former governor who until recently was a panista.

Nayarit elections and the party Convergencia: "We will only join winner"

Perhaps not verbatim, but pretty close: The party Convergencia in Nayarit said it would only join a coalition of PAN and PRD if the candidate proposed was the one ahead in the polls.

Everybody loves a winner, but especially Convergencia. That said, expect Convergencia in the end to line up behind thecandidacy of former PRI, then PRD, then PAN, then whatever party she can use for her gain, politician Martha Elena García, now a federal deputy, and wife of a former governor of the state.