Tuesday, July 3, 2012

Recount! IFE decision goes far beyond 2006

IFE said it will open around 50,000 - fifty thousand - casillas or ballot boxes, out of a total of 143,114.
While AMLO and his coalition is asking for a full recount now, this is still significant - more than a third of all boxes. Compare this to in 2006, when less than three thousand casillas, from what I recall, were opened.

Is IFE just trying to nip things in the bud, even if it risks making AMLO supporters vindicated?

Even so, AMLO's main complaints have been vote buying and media bias - which a recount, full or partial, will do nothing to substantiate.

Source:
'Voto por voto' en un tercio de la presidencial: IFE. El Universal Online, July 3, 2012.

Carlos Loret de Mola tells three lies

This is quite amazing: Carlos Loret de Mola, columnist of El Universal and a star of Televisa, manages to cram in three lies in just one tiny paragraph:
Yesterday, López Obrador called the Sunday July 1, 2012 process fraudulent, didn't accept the official results.. and said that he won
Whatever you think of AMLO's reluctance to accept Peña Nieto's likely win, this is a complete distortion of what AMLO has actually said:

* He has not called the process fraudulent - he has not used the word at all
* He has not said that he won the election
* And lest we forget, the results that are in are not the official results - these will come after Mexico's 300 districts confirm (or not!) the tally sheets the PREP results were based on, starting tomorrow. Then, if they are confirmed and not enough irregularities were present, they will become official.

Any wonder that AMLO and his allies insist that the media is biased against them?

The composition of Mexicos 2012-15 Congress

A very useful comparison from El Universal: How the Chamber will look from 2012-15, and the Senate from 2012-8, though quite likely there will be a few "switchers" in either house along the way: Link to high-definition pdf file here.



Source:
En el Congreso, el PRI está obligado a negociar. El Universal, July 3, 2012

Mexico's election: The good news

And now for the good new (from the Mexican political left's point of view, that is)

* PRI will not have a majority in the Chamber of Deputies, as many believed.
* PRI will not have a majority in the Senate, as many believed.

Instead, PRD will be the second force in the former, and have a sizable contingent in the second.

* Tabasco will change government hands for the first time in its history: PRD's Arturo Núñez won the governorship.

* Morelos was won by the left for the first time in Mexico's history, with Graco Ramírez. The state is as far as I can recall now the second to have been run by all three parties (the other is Tlaxcala)

* EPN's victory was far from impressive - barely 6% ahead of AMLO, who ran a terrific campaign - in 2009 he campaigned and identified for PT and MC, who won only 5-6% of the vote together. He truly did a remarkable recovery.

* PRD won more than 60 percent in DF - in a four-way race! This is far higher than Cárdenas in 1997, AMLO in 2000, and Ebrard in 2006. The left has clearly shown it can govern a highly complicated and major entity - and do so extremely well.

* The left will be back to being the second largest force in the Chamber of Deputies

* The results are a damning indictment of the political right in Mexico: It lost Jalisco after 18 terrible years of government, barely hung on to Guanajuato, and will be the third force in the Chamber. It was almost completely wiped out in Mexico City, where it lost at least one bastion and may even lose the remaining three.

Calderón will go down in history as the man who returned Los Pinos to PRI - it's a hefty verdict on his mediocre presidency, which saw millions more in poverty. And lest we forget, he was actively helped by the bumbling idiot who happened to end PRI's 71-year reign in the first place, Vicente Fox.

What stinging blows to the party and to the political right.