It may be exaggerated to call it a civil war, as IFE's Marco Antonio Baños and Francisco Guerrero make out a "dynamic duo" that for a long time has consistently defended the PRI rather than Mexican democracy as councilors of Mexico's federal electoral institute, but it certainly does not bode well for IFE's future stability that said councilors launch a full broadside against their own boss, IFE president Leonardo Valdés, in media, directly claiming that he really does not know about IFE´s internal work, being more busy with international conferences and backing a proposed political reform, rather than engaging himself in IFE´s preparations for 2012.
Whoever is right here, it´s a bad omen for 2012.
Monday, May 30, 2011
Mexico City Polls: For PRD, the opponent to beat is the PRI.
Here are the results from a recent poll on vote intention in Mexico City, in today's El Universal (direct link to detailed PFD here). Notably, for the PRD, which leads in party intention with 26 percent, in every imaginable scenario (the paper lists an amazing 10 options), PAN leads in none, with the PRD and PRI coming on top in respective candidate scenarios.
A consistent vote winner: PRI's ex-president Beatriz Paredes Rangel. Will the 2012 PRI formula be Peña Nieto-Paredes? Much caution nonetheless: At this point, of course, polls more than anything reflect merely name recognition.
A consistent vote winner: PRI's ex-president Beatriz Paredes Rangel. Will the 2012 PRI formula be Peña Nieto-Paredes? Much caution nonetheless: At this point, of course, polls more than anything reflect merely name recognition.
A poor Economist article on Mexico
A recent Economist article that attempts a side-by-side comparison of Marcelo Ebrard/Mexico City and Enrique Peña Nieto/Mexico State fails badly when it comes to informing its reader, stumbling as it does into social science territory with what may be an agenda of its own, namely to varnish the highly dubious crime-fighting credentials of the Mexico State governor.
In its attempt to outline the different crime strategies and successes of Ebrard and Peña Nieto, the article neglects to mention, to cite but two examples, the explosive rise in femicidios in Mexico State, and the very poor handling of the Paulette case, but instead seems to suggest that Mexico State has been equally or even more successful than its Mexico City neighbor in reducing crime. I have never read any serious study that corroborates this - quite the opposite.
After making no mention of the unique social programs in Mexico City created by Andrés Manuel López Obrador and much developed by Ebrard, the article claims that "If Mr Ebrard has a slight edge in keeping a lid on violence, that is mainly because he has a big, unified police force."
Is it really? What is the evidence for this grandiose claim? What about counter claims that Mexico City has been remarkably successful in staving off violence through the use of other mechanisms such as innovative social programs for youth and young adults?
Readers of The Economist should keep well in mind the old adage: That which is postulated without any evidence may also be completely dismissed without any evidence.
In its attempt to outline the different crime strategies and successes of Ebrard and Peña Nieto, the article neglects to mention, to cite but two examples, the explosive rise in femicidios in Mexico State, and the very poor handling of the Paulette case, but instead seems to suggest that Mexico State has been equally or even more successful than its Mexico City neighbor in reducing crime. I have never read any serious study that corroborates this - quite the opposite.
After making no mention of the unique social programs in Mexico City created by Andrés Manuel López Obrador and much developed by Ebrard, the article claims that "If Mr Ebrard has a slight edge in keeping a lid on violence, that is mainly because he has a big, unified police force."
Is it really? What is the evidence for this grandiose claim? What about counter claims that Mexico City has been remarkably successful in staving off violence through the use of other mechanisms such as innovative social programs for youth and young adults?
Readers of The Economist should keep well in mind the old adage: That which is postulated without any evidence may also be completely dismissed without any evidence.
Illiteracy in Mexico: 6.9 percent
Alonso Lujambio, secretary of education, said the level of illiteracy in Mexico is currently 6.9 percent, with 1.6 percent illiteracy in the 15-24-years group.
It is here I am yet again annoyed by the practice of Mexican newspapers of "strict reporting" rather than actual journalism. Any comparative context? Is illiteracy rising or falling? One would think it would be quite natural to include this context in a story on illiteracy.
It is here I am yet again annoyed by the practice of Mexican newspapers of "strict reporting" rather than actual journalism. Any comparative context? Is illiteracy rising or falling? One would think it would be quite natural to include this context in a story on illiteracy.
Jeffrey Davidow on current US-Mexican relations
Jeffrey Davidow was the U.S. ambassador to Mexico 1998-2002 (he wrote a rather frank book about these years, though not exactly self-critical), and has since 2003 been head of the Institute of the Americas at UC-San Diego. He recently was interviewed by El Universal, where he called the current level of U.S.-Mexican cooperation "incredible":
"I would say that things have changed a lot. If someone had told me 10 years ago that the United States would send $500 million a year in counternarcotics assistance to Mexico and that the Mexican government would accept it, I would have said it was impossible."
PRI candidate Eruviel Ávila offers rewards for vote promotion in Mexico State
Eruviel Ávila, PRI's candidate for governor in Mexico State, openly offers rewards for vote promotion: Those in his campaign who "promote" the vote most efficiently, will be rewarded with public office, cars, household appliances, or positions in the party.
Luis Videgaray, head of the Mexico State PRI branch, defended the practice as "legitimate."
What more evidence does one need that the "New PRI" of Enrique Peña Nieto is exactly the same as the old PRI? The PRI governed Mexico for 71 years and has governed the miserable Mexico State for 82.
Luis Videgaray, head of the Mexico State PRI branch, defended the practice as "legitimate."
What more evidence does one need that the "New PRI" of Enrique Peña Nieto is exactly the same as the old PRI? The PRI governed Mexico for 71 years and has governed the miserable Mexico State for 82.
Marcelo Ebrard's inspirations: Lula and Felipe González
Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard said in an interview with Milenio that his "great hope" was to run a national government from 2012 like that of Brazil´s Lula da Silva (2003-2011) or Spain´s socialist prime minister (1982-1996) Felipe González, locating his ideological and political views squarely on the centre-left.
I find it hard to imagine AMLO making any similar international references (he earlier, as it were, rejected any of these three referents, in 2005).
I find it hard to imagine AMLO making any similar international references (he earlier, as it were, rejected any of these three referents, in 2005).
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