Saturday, March 19, 2011
Excellent overview of the PRD factions from Milenio
I have often taken issue with many of the "overviews" of PRD's internal factions by Mexican media, as names, allegiances, alliances, positions, etc often tend to be bungled up, but this graphic gets it quite right:
PRD: A quick analyis on the Partido de la Revolución Democrática's leadership renewal
Ahead of what will likely be a final vote on Sunday, the three official candidates to be PRD's new president are Jesús Zambrano Grijalva, Dolores Padierna Luna, and Armando Ríos Piter.
The two latter stand very little chance: While nominally backed by most of the "G-8" or eight factions opposed to the social-democratic line of Jésus Ortega in favor of a populist movement-party tied to former presidential candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the only faction with serious weight in G-8 is IDN, which represents the clientlistic social movement organizations organized and captured by René Bejerano since the 1985 earthquake. The other 7 barely have any representation, with partial exception of IS, Izquierda Social, whose powerbase remains the secretariat for social development of Mexico City, although the secretary, Martí Batres, has seem many of his powers stripped away in recent months.
In any event, Padierna remains quite indigestible to the majority of party, and IDN members have admitted they know she stands very little chance of winning the presidency, and as such is aiming for the secretary general. According to PRD rules, this election - which thankfully will be decided by the National Council instead of an open mass member ballot, a practice that with no exception has ended in disaster - will allow the secretary general to the runner-up; the winner, in any regard, is stipulated to need 2/3 of the council's voted.
Barring a new and "surprise" candidacy, Jésus Zambrano therefore appears the likely new president, with Padierna as secretary general. Ahead of the weekend's council meeting, Zambrano declared his candidacy. It had long been increasingly clear that it would be Zambrano, a former guerrillero who nonetheless joined the institutional social-democratic Ortega win - and pretty much clinched with the PRD's remarkable comeback in Guerrero, where Zambrano was campain manager.
Armando Ríos Píter, a "compromise candidate" presented by Marcelo Ebrard, is also in the running, though and unlikely candidate has he has no weight in or even knowledge of the party - not an orgánico by any means - and has been in an out of PAN and PRI before he came late to the PRD.
A note on Ebrard: While he has presented his own alternative, Ríos Piter, he has also made it clear that he "doesn't decide" who will lead the PRD. What a difference from AMLO, who as mayor of Mexico City demanded and received an almost complete control of the party, trumping through his pliant (and now ex-PRD) choice Leonel Cota as president. One may regard this a sign of Ebrard's lack of full backing by the PRD; a far more benevolent interpretation is that he is simply far more respectful of the autonomy the party than AMLO ever was - or remain, for that matter.
Regarding the vote over new president, one warning was launched by Senator Carlos Navarrete: If the groups can't come to any agreement, there will be no election and Ortega will continue as president until November. A few late-coming alternatives might be Hortensia Aragón of Foro Nuevo Sol, Juan Guerra from Alternativa Democrática Nacional, Martha Dalia Gastélum from Izquierda Renovadora en Movimiento, and Alfonso Sánchez Anaya. The three former have all backed Ortega in the past; Anaya is a former governor of Tlaxcala regarded as closer to AMLO and opponent of Ortega; he bailed from PRI to join PRD in 1998.
It is still not out of the question, however, that Ortega and Ebrard, who are allies, can muster a 2/3 majority in favor of a Zambrano-Ríos Piter slate. This will cause some serious trouble with the "G-8."
Comments from IDN spokesman Alejandro Sánchez Camacho are quite typical: He warned against "majoritarianism" and that "many will leave," unless IDN are given at least the secretary general. However, should Ortega and Ebrard manage to come up with the required 2/3, one compromise might be Zambrano-Martha Dalia Gastélum, also close to Ebrard, or Zambrano-Jésus Valencia of the Mexico State PRD. I found it doubtful that IDN would leave the party, though several of the small G-8 factions very well might. Given the utter unwillingness of many of these to accept losing votes, a negotiated exit may hurt the PRD in the short run, but strengthen it in the long run.
In any event, if any doubt remained on the modus operandi of the AMLO-aligned groups within the PRD, Dolores Padierna declared, "Si no ganamos a la buena estamos preparados para ganar a la mala."
Few would expect otherwise.
The two latter stand very little chance: While nominally backed by most of the "G-8" or eight factions opposed to the social-democratic line of Jésus Ortega in favor of a populist movement-party tied to former presidential candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the only faction with serious weight in G-8 is IDN, which represents the clientlistic social movement organizations organized and captured by René Bejerano since the 1985 earthquake. The other 7 barely have any representation, with partial exception of IS, Izquierda Social, whose powerbase remains the secretariat for social development of Mexico City, although the secretary, Martí Batres, has seem many of his powers stripped away in recent months.
In any event, Padierna remains quite indigestible to the majority of party, and IDN members have admitted they know she stands very little chance of winning the presidency, and as such is aiming for the secretary general. According to PRD rules, this election - which thankfully will be decided by the National Council instead of an open mass member ballot, a practice that with no exception has ended in disaster - will allow the secretary general to the runner-up; the winner, in any regard, is stipulated to need 2/3 of the council's voted.
Barring a new and "surprise" candidacy, Jésus Zambrano therefore appears the likely new president, with Padierna as secretary general. Ahead of the weekend's council meeting, Zambrano declared his candidacy. It had long been increasingly clear that it would be Zambrano, a former guerrillero who nonetheless joined the institutional social-democratic Ortega win - and pretty much clinched with the PRD's remarkable comeback in Guerrero, where Zambrano was campain manager.
Armando Ríos Píter, a "compromise candidate" presented by Marcelo Ebrard, is also in the running, though and unlikely candidate has he has no weight in or even knowledge of the party - not an orgánico by any means - and has been in an out of PAN and PRI before he came late to the PRD.
A note on Ebrard: While he has presented his own alternative, Ríos Piter, he has also made it clear that he "doesn't decide" who will lead the PRD. What a difference from AMLO, who as mayor of Mexico City demanded and received an almost complete control of the party, trumping through his pliant (and now ex-PRD) choice Leonel Cota as president. One may regard this a sign of Ebrard's lack of full backing by the PRD; a far more benevolent interpretation is that he is simply far more respectful of the autonomy the party than AMLO ever was - or remain, for that matter.
Regarding the vote over new president, one warning was launched by Senator Carlos Navarrete: If the groups can't come to any agreement, there will be no election and Ortega will continue as president until November. A few late-coming alternatives might be Hortensia Aragón of Foro Nuevo Sol, Juan Guerra from Alternativa Democrática Nacional, Martha Dalia Gastélum from Izquierda Renovadora en Movimiento, and Alfonso Sánchez Anaya. The three former have all backed Ortega in the past; Anaya is a former governor of Tlaxcala regarded as closer to AMLO and opponent of Ortega; he bailed from PRI to join PRD in 1998.
It is still not out of the question, however, that Ortega and Ebrard, who are allies, can muster a 2/3 majority in favor of a Zambrano-Ríos Piter slate. This will cause some serious trouble with the "G-8."
Comments from IDN spokesman Alejandro Sánchez Camacho are quite typical: He warned against "majoritarianism" and that "many will leave," unless IDN are given at least the secretary general. However, should Ortega and Ebrard manage to come up with the required 2/3, one compromise might be Zambrano-Martha Dalia Gastélum, also close to Ebrard, or Zambrano-Jésus Valencia of the Mexico State PRD. I found it doubtful that IDN would leave the party, though several of the small G-8 factions very well might. Given the utter unwillingness of many of these to accept losing votes, a negotiated exit may hurt the PRD in the short run, but strengthen it in the long run.
In any event, if any doubt remained on the modus operandi of the AMLO-aligned groups within the PRD, Dolores Padierna declared, "Si no ganamos a la buena estamos preparados para ganar a la mala."
Few would expect otherwise.
An old-fashioned clientelism scandal in Mexico State, now on Youtube: Enrique Peña's Mexico State government
This growing scandal appears as nasty as it looks: Ahead of the July 3 gubernatorial election, PRI functionary Bernardo García Cisneros, president of the state's arbitrarion board, was caught on video (see Youtube clip here) presenting himself as representative of Governor Enrique Peña Nieto, in a meeting that included Chalco municipal president Luis Enrique Martínez and representatives of the state's secretariat of work, asking PRI members to help with the clientelistic handout and to sign up voters for public welfare in return for their vote.
The video was seemingly shot on Feb. 14, and could hardly be more incriminating, including this line on handouts:
The reply from Peña Nieto could hardly be more disingenuous: "I distance the Mexico State government from what might be the the particular participation of some functionary, which will be responded to."
To repeat: García Cisneros presents himself as Peña Nieto's representative on the tape.
Cristina Díaz, PRI's new secretary general, immediately leaped to Peña Nieto's defense. PRI President Humberto "Big Mouth" Moreira has so far been uncharacteristically silent, as far as I can see.
The video was seemingly shot on Feb. 14, and could hardly be more incriminating, including this line on handouts:
"We will all have to deliver them, house by house, zone by zone, section by section, personal and directly, by every one of you, and by the people of the Secretariat of Work, who are the representatives precisely of the state government in this place."
The national presidents of PRD and PAN, Jésus Ortega and Gustavo Madero, filed charges with the federal attorney general's office, accusing García Cisneros, the state secretariat of work, and Enrique Peña Nieto himself of the abuse of office, authority and power, influence peddling and embezzlement, all crimes under the federal Criminal Code.
The reply from Peña Nieto could hardly be more disingenuous: "I distance the Mexico State government from what might be the the particular participation of some functionary, which will be responded to."
To repeat: García Cisneros presents himself as Peña Nieto's representative on the tape.
Cristina Díaz, PRI's new secretary general, immediately leaped to Peña Nieto's defense. PRI President Humberto "Big Mouth" Moreira has so far been uncharacteristically silent, as far as I can see.
Petroleum plunder: Happy birthday, PEMEX
Today, March 18, is "PEMEX Day" - it is 73 years to the day since Lázaro Cárdenas nationalized foreign oil companies and eventually set up Petróleos Mexicanos.
In this regard, PEMEX director Juan José Suárez Coppel said that the the state oil company lost three billion pesos worth of gasoline last year from criminals siphoning off the petroleum. This apparently amounts to 17,000 barrels milked every day - double the figures from 2009.
El Universal, for its part, in its editorial today called for "rescuing PEMEX" from yet another plunder - the "official" one, as the oil company continues to be used as a cash cow to cover budget holes yet at cost of depleting the company for resources needed for its modernization.
Either way: PEMEX is being plundered.
In this regard, PEMEX director Juan José Suárez Coppel said that the the state oil company lost three billion pesos worth of gasoline last year from criminals siphoning off the petroleum. This apparently amounts to 17,000 barrels milked every day - double the figures from 2009.
El Universal, for its part, in its editorial today called for "rescuing PEMEX" from yet another plunder - the "official" one, as the oil company continues to be used as a cash cow to cover budget holes yet at cost of depleting the company for resources needed for its modernization.
Either way: PEMEX is being plundered.
AMLO's Tabasco PRD under investigation for fraud
The PRD's state branch in Tabasco is in trouble: Criminal proceedings have been launched against party leader Javier May Rodríguez for the alleged fraud of 35 million pesos, stemming from his tenure as mayor of Comalcalco 2007-2009. Tabasco is the home state of Andrés Manuel López Obrador, and the Tabascan branch is one of the few AMLO retains complete control over. May Rodríguez is one of AMLO's closest collaborators there.
The Tabasco PRD calls the investigation "political revenge," and he is defended by allies such as Arturo Núñez, senator from Tabasco (who wants to become the state next governor), yet May Rodríguez has been a very controversial party leader for his iron-fisted control of the branch - as was, to be sure, the leadership of José Ramiro López Obrador, AMLO's brother, who headed the party before him.
José Ramiro, to recall, last year faced charges of embezzlement.
The Tabasco PRD calls the investigation "political revenge," and he is defended by allies such as Arturo Núñez, senator from Tabasco (who wants to become the state next governor), yet May Rodríguez has been a very controversial party leader for his iron-fisted control of the branch - as was, to be sure, the leadership of José Ramiro López Obrador, AMLO's brother, who headed the party before him.
José Ramiro, to recall, last year faced charges of embezzlement.
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