A poll for El Universal on presidential and party preferences can be found here.
Nothing surprising:
- Enrique Peña Nieto is far ahead when ranked against any other candidate, though he certainly does not hold a majority - from 39.4 to 41.7
- AMLO is still the candidate with highest name recognition, yet with a very high level of rejection from the electorate - indeed, the one of only two possible candidates for which the level of rejection surpasses that of approval - 49.2 to 44.5 percent. The other? Juan Molinar Horcasitas, the hapless minister of communications, with 64.2 rejection to 23.6 approval
Monday, December 6, 2010
The PRD's "G-8" group: A gift to Enrique Peña Nieto that just keeps on giving
G-8 is the name of eight factions in the PRD adamantly opposed to the current leadership of Jesús Ortega and his social-democratic Nueva Izquierda faction, which together with his allies Alianza Democrática Nacional and Foro Nuevo Sol have majority control of the party. Yet this does not matter to the "radicals" of the G-8, who repeatedly has demonstrated an utter lack of ability or willingness to accept the results of votes or elections that do not favor them, resorting instead to coercioan and outright physical aggression to get their will through.
Now, the G-8, which are ultra-loyal to Andrés Manuel López Obrador (though many for very pragmatic and opportunistic reasons), have declared they will not wait until March, when a new PRD leader will be elected, but will physically attack the PRD headquarters where Ortega's office is located, and moreover seek to have Ortega kicked out of the PRD altogether, and also to have the secretary general of the PRD, Hortensia Aragón, removed.
What is one to make of these tactics? They certainly reveal a segment of the party that is simply unwilling to accept any defeats, yet far to willing to resort to violence. They are profoundly anti-democratic at heart. Ortega refers to them as reminiscent of the brownshirts of Nazi Germany, and the comparison is sadly not far off.
The most important of the G-8 group is the infamous Izquierda Democrática Nacional (IDN), created by René Bejerano, who remains its leader though he himself was kicked out/renounced from the PRD after the dollar-stuffing scandals of 2004. Ortega has accused Bejarano of being behind the latest offensive, as well as other lopezobradoristas such as Gerardo Fernández Noroña, and Mario Di Costanzo, and notably Mexico State governor Enrique Peña Nieto.
What is clear is that Dolores Padierna wants to be become the next PRD president, which will surely doom the party given her abysmal public image. Moreover, given that Mexican voters are long fed up with the intolerance and violence of the more radical elements of the PRD-AMLO backers, and above all of the incessant infighting of the party, the current debacle will certainly have only one sure winner: Peña Nieto.
Now, the G-8, which are ultra-loyal to Andrés Manuel López Obrador (though many for very pragmatic and opportunistic reasons), have declared they will not wait until March, when a new PRD leader will be elected, but will physically attack the PRD headquarters where Ortega's office is located, and moreover seek to have Ortega kicked out of the PRD altogether, and also to have the secretary general of the PRD, Hortensia Aragón, removed.
What is one to make of these tactics? They certainly reveal a segment of the party that is simply unwilling to accept any defeats, yet far to willing to resort to violence. They are profoundly anti-democratic at heart. Ortega refers to them as reminiscent of the brownshirts of Nazi Germany, and the comparison is sadly not far off.
The most important of the G-8 group is the infamous Izquierda Democrática Nacional (IDN), created by René Bejerano, who remains its leader though he himself was kicked out/renounced from the PRD after the dollar-stuffing scandals of 2004. Ortega has accused Bejarano of being behind the latest offensive, as well as other lopezobradoristas such as Gerardo Fernández Noroña, and Mario Di Costanzo, and notably Mexico State governor Enrique Peña Nieto.
What is clear is that Dolores Padierna wants to be become the next PRD president, which will surely doom the party given her abysmal public image. Moreover, given that Mexican voters are long fed up with the intolerance and violence of the more radical elements of the PRD-AMLO backers, and above all of the incessant infighting of the party, the current debacle will certainly have only one sure winner: Peña Nieto.
Guerrero gubernatorial elections: AMLO (conditionally) backs Ángel Aguirre
A highly significant event in Guerrero: The candidacy of Ángel Aguirre received a highly significant endorsement when Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who still attracts sizable support among the PRD mass base, came out backing the PRD-PT-Convergencia candidate - of sorts, at least.
Following what was euphemistically termed a "public vote" - the mechanism practiced by AMLO where he "asks," in a highly plebiscitarian fashion whether his supports backs his proposal, and where a sufficiently loud "Yes!" counts as affirmation, AMLO in a mass meeting in Guerrero state capital Chilpancingo said he would back Ángel Aguirre, if Aguirre signed on to AMLO's "Ten Basic Compromises," essentially extending the AMLO-era social programs when he was Mexico City mayor, to Guerrero.
This is very much a moot point: Marclo Ebrard, who has continued and developed much AMLO's programs and created a range of new ones, has already appeared with Aguirre where the candidate has promised to take Ebrards social programs to Guerrero. Moreover, Aguirre has also said he opposes the building of the La Parota dam, a huge hydroelectric power project, given the low compensation for people affected by the construction. AMLO's backing of Aguirre is as such "conditioned" on his continued rejection of this project. So why do it in the first place? Given that Aguirre is not running in coalition with the PAN - anathema to AMLO - there is no obvious reason why he wouldn't back Aguirre, yet to me the very public "I'll back you if you do this" declaration is principally meant as AMLO staking out "ownership" of Aguirre as "his" candidate as well.
Following what was euphemistically termed a "public vote" - the mechanism practiced by AMLO where he "asks," in a highly plebiscitarian fashion whether his supports backs his proposal, and where a sufficiently loud "Yes!" counts as affirmation, AMLO in a mass meeting in Guerrero state capital Chilpancingo said he would back Ángel Aguirre, if Aguirre signed on to AMLO's "Ten Basic Compromises," essentially extending the AMLO-era social programs when he was Mexico City mayor, to Guerrero.
This is very much a moot point: Marclo Ebrard, who has continued and developed much AMLO's programs and created a range of new ones, has already appeared with Aguirre where the candidate has promised to take Ebrards social programs to Guerrero. Moreover, Aguirre has also said he opposes the building of the La Parota dam, a huge hydroelectric power project, given the low compensation for people affected by the construction. AMLO's backing of Aguirre is as such "conditioned" on his continued rejection of this project. So why do it in the first place? Given that Aguirre is not running in coalition with the PAN - anathema to AMLO - there is no obvious reason why he wouldn't back Aguirre, yet to me the very public "I'll back you if you do this" declaration is principally meant as AMLO staking out "ownership" of Aguirre as "his" candidate as well.
PAN's presidential election: Illusion of unity shattered despite declination of Gil for Gustavo Madero
The internal elections in the Partido Acción Nacional (PAN) for its new party president for the next three years, a highly significant political event on its own, was given added importance because it was the first elections in five years that actually saw what appears to have been a real competition, unlike the previous dedazos of former party presidents Germán Martínez and César Nava. Yet the two front runners, Gustavo Madero and Roberto Gil, were both considered Calderón's candidates, and in essence, the new CEN (Comité Ejecutivo Nacional) will clearly be loyally calderonista.
Things seemed on the surface calm Saturday, with one exception: Former party president Manuel Espino, recently expelled from the party, tried to elbow himself in to the PAN compound in Mexico City with hundreds of his followers, yet was told that he would be not allowed to vote, despite the regulation that all former party presidents will have a lifetime seat on the PAN council, which elects the party president.
As the voting rounds progressed, when it became clear that Gustavo Madero was picking up the most votes, Roberto Gil announced he would also decline in the name of party unity, making Madero the winner. The immediate question was, of course: What would Gil get in return for his declination?
Now we know: Gil was apparently promised a significant chunk of the PAN's 40-strong executive committee, as the new president has the right to appoint 2/3 of these. Now Gil claims that Madero failed to keep such a bargain. Madero responded that this is "false," and also refused to affirm that any such agreement actually existed.
The new CEN will have quite a few notable members, such as:
* Luisa María Calderón Hinojosa - yep, the president's sister, who wants to be Michoacán governor
* Cecilia Romero, who was also a candidate for the presidency and represents El Yunque
* Jorge Ocejo, head of the "Rightwing International," Organización Demócrata Cristiana de América
* Maximiliano Córtazar, former presidential spokesperson
* Mariana Gómez del Campo, head of the PAN's legislative group in the Mexico City assembly
* Federal Secretary of Public Administration Salvador Vega Casillas
* Federal Secretary of Communications Juan Molina Horcasitas
* Governor of Morelos, Marco Antonio Adame,
* Governor of Guanajuato, Juan Manuel Oliva.
In other words, one should make no mistake: This is a calderonista executive committee, through and through, and Madero - a man with the charisma of a grey rock - will very likely be a highly loyal servant of the Mexican President.
Madero proposed 27 out of the 40 members, with the national council the rest, and this appears a rough measure of strength:
- Maderistas, 20
- Cecilia Romero and the yunquistas, 8
- Gil, only 6
It has not yet been decided who will head the powerful position of secretary general, but likely it will be Cecilia Romero, also a close friend of and ultra-loyal to Calderón. Should this happen, Gil, who thought one of his people deserved this secretariat, will not be happy, and more trouble may be expected.
More details here: La Jornada, El Universal, Milenio
Things seemed on the surface calm Saturday, with one exception: Former party president Manuel Espino, recently expelled from the party, tried to elbow himself in to the PAN compound in Mexico City with hundreds of his followers, yet was told that he would be not allowed to vote, despite the regulation that all former party presidents will have a lifetime seat on the PAN council, which elects the party president.
As the voting rounds progressed, when it became clear that Gustavo Madero was picking up the most votes, Roberto Gil announced he would also decline in the name of party unity, making Madero the winner. The immediate question was, of course: What would Gil get in return for his declination?
Now we know: Gil was apparently promised a significant chunk of the PAN's 40-strong executive committee, as the new president has the right to appoint 2/3 of these. Now Gil claims that Madero failed to keep such a bargain. Madero responded that this is "false," and also refused to affirm that any such agreement actually existed.
The new CEN will have quite a few notable members, such as:
* Luisa María Calderón Hinojosa - yep, the president's sister, who wants to be Michoacán governor
* Cecilia Romero, who was also a candidate for the presidency and represents El Yunque
* Jorge Ocejo, head of the "Rightwing International," Organización Demócrata Cristiana de América
* Maximiliano Córtazar, former presidential spokesperson
* Mariana Gómez del Campo, head of the PAN's legislative group in the Mexico City assembly
* Federal Secretary of Public Administration Salvador Vega Casillas
* Federal Secretary of Communications Juan Molina Horcasitas
* Governor of Morelos, Marco Antonio Adame,
* Governor of Guanajuato, Juan Manuel Oliva.
In other words, one should make no mistake: This is a calderonista executive committee, through and through, and Madero - a man with the charisma of a grey rock - will very likely be a highly loyal servant of the Mexican President.
Madero proposed 27 out of the 40 members, with the national council the rest, and this appears a rough measure of strength:
- Maderistas, 20
- Cecilia Romero and the yunquistas, 8
- Gil, only 6
It has not yet been decided who will head the powerful position of secretary general, but likely it will be Cecilia Romero, also a close friend of and ultra-loyal to Calderón. Should this happen, Gil, who thought one of his people deserved this secretariat, will not be happy, and more trouble may be expected.
More details here: La Jornada, El Universal, Milenio
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