Saturday, January 8, 2011

PRD to decide candidate and question of PAN alliance by the urns

A significant step forward: The PRD's national political commission, where all factions are represented, agreed to subject the question of gubernatorial candidate and party alliances to the ballot box.

Two questions will be asked:
1) "Would you agree to or not a broad alliance of various political parties to achieve alternation in government of the state?" and 2) "Who would be the citizen to lead it?"

Three comments:
1) The PRD must find an external organization to carry out this ballot, to avoid accusations of fraud.
2) The first question should be more specific, adding "including PAN," to avoid any confusion: Would  a YES vote mean support for any political parties? AMLO must not be allowed to coopt this question.
3) Related to 2): If YES on 1 and Alejandro Encinas on 2, will AMLO respect the outcome authorizing an alliance with PAN? Given his track record, I fear he will not.

Calderón's sister does not rule out dialogue with drug gang; wants to be governor

Luisa María Calderón Hinojosa, nicknamed "Cocoa," wants very much to be governor of her and her little brother Felipe Calderón's home state of Michoacán.

Here's a profile of her in El Universal. Of note: She appears not to rule out a call for dialogue with La Familia Michoacana, the Michoacán-based mafia:

"Would make a call for conversion with the cartel "La Familia Michoacana"?
"In part, but in time, and with outcomes they would have to comply with"

She also refuses to call herself a "rightwinger," not surprising given the strength of cardenismo and left wing forces in Michoacán.

Some personal observation: Despite her interest, and the obvious advantage of being the president's sister - I've said it before and will say it again: this stinks of nepotism - her nomination is far from secured. Many panistas in the state I spoke with the past weeks seem to be more inclined toward Senator Marko Cortés Mendoza, who appears to be doing far more proselytizing and activism in the state than Calderón's sister.
He seems much more popular with the bases, though these are mere personal impressions.
Here is his Web page - it's pretty slick.

However, my personal favorite for who would be the best governor of the state of Michoacán:
Antonio Soto Sánchez, former federal senator and deputy, and a man of an impeccable trajectory.

Chiapas: Indigenous elected head of new state human rights council

Lorenzo López Méndez, a tzotzil, was elected head of Chiapas human rights council, which replaces its earlier commission. López Méndez is a long-time defender of indigenous rights, has a master in penal science, and is a doctorand in law.

The creation of a human rights council, replacing a commission, at least nominally signals the elevation of important of human rights, in particular indigenous rights, in Chiapas.
Let's hope it will also mean as much en lo practico.

Who do you trust, Mexico's immigration institute or human rights commission?

Mexico's institute of migration (INM), which faced an increasing barrage of accusations of corruption and incompetence, and outright complicity with human smugglers, under the disastrous rein of its former leader Cecilia Romero, rejected claims by Mexico's national human rights commission (CNDH) that 214 "collective disappearances" - that is, 214 cases of mass disappearances - took place in 2010, with an average of 50 migrants forcibly taken away. This is an absolutely stunning figure.

Salvador Beltran del Rio, the new INM chief, dismissed this figures as "outside of reality," though he didn't offere any figures of his own.

How do you trust - the INM or the CNDH? Keep in mind that that this is the same INM in which the federal government recently announced a "purge" of sorts.

PRD Senator Rubén Velázquez López, a longtime defender of migrants and critic of the institute, simply calls the INM "rotten."

High-profile PAN senators calls on party to consider Encinas

Notably, PAN senators Rubén Camarillo, Adriana González, Marko Cortés and Luis Alberto Villarreal qualified  Alejandro Encinas as a "gallant" politician of the left, and called upon the party not to reject the veteran PRD politician, despite his (personal) closeness to Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
This follows similar signals from its national party president, Gustavo Madero.

Strange days, indeed. Much can happen in Mexico State from now until July 3.

TEPJF confirms that PAN complaint against Fidel Herrera was unfounded

Mexico's highest electoral court, TEPJF, confirmed that the complaints of PAN against now-former governor of Veracruz, Fidel Herrara, for having uttered that the then-party president was a "confessed delinquent," were unfounded. PAN had argued the utterances were "denigrating and slandering." Yet TEPJF ruled unanimously against the party, arguing the statements were not political propaganda, which would have been illegal.

Good: There must be some leeway for allowing for criticism, even if it is dirty.

Yet one must also keep in mind that Herrera was caught red-handed on tape interfering with the electoral process, ordering state officials to campaign for his PRI successor. While likely not admissible as evidence - the tapes were leaked, probably by federal intelligence - they are certainly morally damaging, and on a whole other level than Herrera's badmouthing of the PAN.

Peña Nieto denies non-aggression pact; hints at next move: A baby

Despite Marcelo Ebrard's claim that the two aspiring presidential contenders (though only Ebrard has stated his intention), himself and Peña Nieto, had signed a pact of no aggression to calm the waters, Peña Nieto rejected that such a pact existed.

Of note: Las malas lenguas, or malicious tongues (including yours truly)  have long suspected that Peña Nieto would soon announce that him and his soap-star wife is expecting a child, an event likely to be used for all that it is possibly worth. given Peña Nieto's track record of having absolutely no shame in using his family to enhance his image. Now, the Mexico State governor hinted that one may be in the coming.

I repeat: Expect this to be used for all that it is worth politically, in the very near future.

More on Coahuila and other states' debt

The department of finance and public credit (SHCP) reports that a whopping 15 out of 32 federal entities have a debt higher than 50 percent of federal transfers. Had these states been independent countries, they'd likely be in defaults or tough negotiations with international financial institutions by now.

Of note: Nuevo León y Chihuahua are the worst sinners, with a debt of 152.5 and 101 percent respectively.
Yet Coahuila, that of soon-to-be PRI president Humberto Moreira Valdés, saw the biggest rise in debt in 2010: A massive 56-percent rise when compared to 2009.

Now... does that mean that the governments are irresponsibly contracting debt, or that federal transfers are simply too low? I'd love for someone to run the figures with regards to earlier transfers.

In any case, here is a great graphic:

So much for left unity: AMLO rejects any reconciliation with PRD leadership

For those that hoped the postulation of Alejandro Encinas as a contender for the left's nomination as its gubernatorial candidate in Mexico State would signify a possible reconciliation and unity within the left, no quarters: AMLO declared that he will have nothing to do with Ortega and the PRD leadership, as "they allied with the mafia of power."

Nevermind that the PRD leadership was democratically elected by its party base in 2008: AMLO refuses to accept the legitimacy of party leaders, and won't have any reconciliation with them.

Andrés Manuel López Obrador: A disgrace in defeat, and now also a disgrace in victory.

Oaxaca's Gabino Cué again standing up for change: Against SNTE "aviators"

More good news that Governor Gabino Cué is serious about taking on the old powers-that-be in Oaxaca: His government  declared a purge of the state institute of public education, in the hands of Elba Esther Gordillo's SNTE teachers union (the largest in Latin America), with the goal to rid it of the aviadores, literally "aviators," or hundreds or even thousands of "teachers" who appear on the public payroll, yet have never set a foot in a classroom, and are often rather used as shock troops for Gordillo's SNTE and her PANAL party, during election time.

More good news from Oaxaca; may more be on its way.

Great news, if accurate, for the PRD: No more mass elections by party base

La Jornada reported a couple of days ago that the PRD has apparently agreed - that is, its many and often highly antagonistic corrientes, or party factions, have agreed - to elect its new party president in March not by a  mass party primary, open to all old and new members, but rather by its national council.

This is excellent news for the party, and something I've argued for a long time: How many times do you keep doing the same thing and expect a different result, as it were? That is, every single open contested election by the party base has resulted in a cochinero, an absolute disaster, of violence, fraud accusations, refusal by losers to accept defeat, etc. I would like more info/confirmation on this highly significant development, but hope for the party's sake it really is a reality: The last thing the left can afford, if it is to have any chance at all of winning in 2011 but above all in 2012, is yet another disastrous internal election. Even the "radical" rabble-rousers and thugs mostly found in the IDN corriente seem to have realized this.