Exactly where is "La Chingada"?

It caused a bit of kerfuffle a couple of days ago when AMLO was caught on tape, in what was a private, closed meeting with business sectors, stating that unless he wins in 2006, ahora sí a la chingada, loosely and mildly translated perhaps as "then I will get the hell out of here." Unwisely, he first denied to reporters he had said this, until confronted with it on tape, which only made it seem bigger than it really is.

What's the big deal? To Joaquín López-Dóriga, he was merely referring to a family estate in Palenque, Chiapas, actually called "La Chingada," believe it or not.

As Ciro Gómez Leyva noted, more important is the other line that AMLO said:
"I have more experience now than before. I have less vigor, though, because I'm tired."

In short, it truly is this time, or never. No 2018. I see nothing wrong in stating this, quite the contrary.
Who would not be tired after what AMLO has done, visiting every single municipality in the country twice or so, constantly holding meetings, for six years straight?

Don't trust the polls

It's a topic that has gotten some traction recently, but it warrants even more: Polls in Mexico are unfortunately often very unreliable, and purposely so: Rather than to present a snapshot of public opinion, the figures are "massaged" to present one candidate or party in a good (or bad) light. Pollsters - not all, but many - are unfortunately for sale.

Yes, some candidates take it too far, questioning any and all polls and refuse to rectify a failing strategy (think AMLO 2006). But many have a reason to do so, and perhaps AMLO more than many others these days:

Francisco Abundis, head of Parametría, warned that parties will try to use any data the coming weeks in particular to suggest that that the presidential contest is getting narrower, and that AMLO is not growing in the polls. The step is then very short to specifically ask polling companies for "results" - give us something that backs however we want things to be.

Abundis' advice strikes me as very sound: Take polls with more than a pinch of salt, and look for patterns across various polls and across companies, and over time.