Monday, September 13, 2010

Much like in 2006, TEPJF condemns Durango election irregularities yet certifies election of Jorge Herrera Caldera

Less than three weeks after PAN leader César Nava and PRD leader Jesús Ortega went to the TEPJF to protest the Durango election - the first time in Mexican history that both party leaders together went to TEPJF to demand elections annulled - Mexico's highest tribunal nonetheless affirmed the victory of Jorge Herrera Caldera, PRI governor-elect. Ortega and Nava documented abuses such as the harassment of PRD activists, as well as the blatant interference by outgoing governor Ismael Hernández.

TEPJF, for its part, condemned the stealing of 6 ballot urns, and gunfire at one voting center with 18 other urns, ut, in an echo of its verdict in the tumultuous 2006 election, while it acknowledged irregularities it declared there was not evidence that this directly affected the outcome in the election, the court in other words venturing into the field of social science and likelihood estimation. In the end, Jorge Herrera Caldera will assume as governor the coming Wednesday. Now the next case to be decided by TEPJF is the equally controversial election in Hidalgo.

(Final vote tally: 293, 806 for Herrera, vs. 278,295 for the coalition behind José Rosas Aispuro, Durango Nos Une)

La Jornada and AMLO: An admiration that distorts its journalistic mission

La Jornada is a very important Mexican newspaper that reports on stories of social interest often neglected by the other large newspapers. It's advocacy for democracy, ever since its 1984 inception, is admirable.

Yet La Jornada's excessive admiration for AMLO has at times reached such heights that it seriously distorts political reality. Take for instance La Jornada's coverage of this weekend's meeting of the PRD's National Council, which is undergoing - as it has for two decades - a brutal fight between the movement-advocates behind AMLO and the party-building social democrats behind Jesús Ortega. According to reporter Alma Muñoz, who has covered the PRD for a long time and should know - I am convinced she does - better:
"In a press conference [Ortega] unveiled two resolutory points, supposedly approved during the sessions of the national council, adjourned indefinitely  due to a lack of consensus among the party factions: There will be no elections December 5, and the policy of alliances will be maintained, after [Ortega's] group impeded that these subjects were part of the order of the day."
Where does one start... First, why "supposedly"? These resolutions were duly voted over by the entire national council, and the final vote tally was 146-97 and 142-93 against, respectively, bringing up the alliances for debate, and against having new elections in December. Why "supposedly"? Was the reporter not present? Did this in any way not signify a valid vote? What is it that she knows that we do not? The simple truth is: Those two votes were a test of strength between the andresmanuelistas and the social democrats, and the latter came up on top. Second, why does Muñoz write the council was adjourned "due to a lack of consensus"? The council was adjourned after the andresmanuelistas lost the vote, which they as always refuse to accept, and then proceeded to "take" the council tribune in retaliation. Why doesn't La Jornada report on this? The article itself brings in several quotations from opponents of Ortega, such as Dolores Padierna, yet none of his backers... indeed, another article by Víctor Ballinas in the same newspaper interviews three Senators from the PRD, all of whom strongly criticizes Ortega. Yet these people are a minority in the party - why not interview any of Ortega's many backers? Because it simply doesn't fit with the narrative, as John Stewart often mocks U.S. news organizations for? Functionally, La Jornada is unfortunately appearing a little too much like a Fox News of the left.

Mexican Senate approves reform allowing more protection for migrants

While the legislation clearly got a push by external events such as the recent gruesome massacre of 72 Latin American immigrants in Tamaulipas, the Mexican Senate to its credit voted unamimously to approve a change to the Ley General de Población regarding the rights of immigrants and the duties of the Mexican state toward them. It improves on crucial areas such as:


- Guaranteeing medical attention to migrants by local, state, and federal authorites.
- Functionaries of the Interior ministry who abuses immigrants will be fined or fired
- Migrants, whether passing through Mexico or seeking to stay permanently, can legally denounce authorities for human rights abuses without fear of being turned in for deportation.


All these aspects were treated in an excellent report by Amnesty International earlier this year. While much remains - indeed, much of Mexico's thunder against the treatment of Mexicans in the United States is undermined by its own inadequate protection of migrants in Mexico - this is a huge step forward.
As PRD Senator Rubén Fernando Velázquez declared, cThe time has come for us not to criminalize migrants who pass by our country."


The Chamber of Deputies, the lower house of Congress, voted on the legislation in March, and it will become law as soon as it is published officially in the Diario Oficial de la Federación.

Rene Bejarano mobilizes movement supporters yet bides his time

René Bejarano is biding his time. This weekend, in a show of strenght, AMLO's one-time political operator filled a stadium of followers of his Movimiento Nacional por la Esperanza, or "National Movement of Hope," a relatively new movement-based outfit with which he is currently identitied.
Bejarano harangued against"petty" and  "arrogant" politicians, in a marked anti-party discourse so typical of the kind of "social movements" represented by Bejarano, even though the party current IDN, founded by Bejarano yet nominally led by his wife Dolores Padierna, remains one of the largest within the PRD. 

Within the PRD, the IDN, while appearing as one of the most "radical" of PRD's factions unequivocally loyal to AMLO, remains nonetheless and inherently opportunisit personal tool of Bejarano-Padiern  that might well switch to back AMLO's successor as Chief of Government of Mexico City, Marcelo Ebrard. 

Notably, Bejarano has been observed several times recently meeting with Ebrard, who is seeking the support of Bejarano's clientelist networks for his 2012 presidential candidacy. Whether Bejarano will go for AMLO or Ebrard will in the end be a question of who will be the highest bidder.

AMLO threatens to leave the PRD if PAN-PRD alliances continue

On tour in Chiapas to promote his book and, more importantly, his 2012 presidential candidacy, AMLO came out very hard  against the now-famous PAN-PRD state alliances, notably threatening to leave the party should the PAN-PRD alliances continue: 
"From now on I am warning you that we are going to draw a very clear line because it would be an act of treason. We have nothing to do with PAN, which stole the presidency of the republic form us in 2006...This alliance is wrong; I am against it. I don't accept that the PRD unites with the PAN; it is going to be a great betrayal if the PRD leaders want to unite with the panistas toward the 212 presidential elections."
The declarations, using his strongest language so far against the party of which he is still nominally a member, must be seen in context of this weekend's meeting of the PRD's national council (still ongoing). The council just voted 146-97 against the proposal of Dolores Padierna (IDN) to put the alliances on hold, a test of strength where the pro-alliance group of Jesús Ortega came up on top. The alliances will, as agreed earlier, be left to each individual state council - the highest PRD authority in each of Mexico's federal units - so that the local PRD branches will have the final decisions. 


Given this delegation of power to the state level, AMLO's words are on the surface peculiar, in the sense that if is not clear why possible future PRD decisions, decided upon centrally and to be affirmed on the state levels, to enter into more PAN alliances would constitute "treason." Indeed, if anyone has committed treason, party wise, it is AMLO, who notably ditched the PRD in the 2009 federal elections and asked his followers to not cast a vote for the PRD but instead PT and Convergencia, given hia failure to impose Alejandro Encinas as the PRD's national president in 2008. Yet in AMLO-speak, of course "treason" simply refers to the practice that the PRD is not anymore fully toeing the line and obeying the commands of its former presidential candidate.


In parallel, it is equally clear that the movement-party advocates within the PRD, will not obey to the majority - democratic - will; having lost an additional vote 142-93 to call for new internal PRD elections for party president in December, IDN and its allies simply resorted to their timeworn tactics of coercion, by "taking" the speakers podium, preventing any further discussions of the council. It is an embarrassing charade.