Ebrard's counterattack against competitor party far from "authoritarian"

I've earlier noted that the left may lose Mexico City, much thanks to the efforts of ex-PRD members such as René Arce and his brother Víctor Hugo Círigo, backed by prominent PRI and PAN politicians, who seek to create a new, "socially progressive" and "center-left" party in Mexico City, termed the Partido de la Ciudad.

The Arce-Círigo due were earlier allied to the Nueva Izquierda faction of the PRD, having their power base in Iztapalapa, yet broke with the party when the PRD lost the 2009 borough election there.

Ever since, they have sought to create a new party, which would obviously sap votes from the PRD and Marcelo Ebrard. Everyone is of course free to try to create a new party, yet the argument that Mexico City really needs a new leftleaning socially progressive party is hard to sustain; the PRD in Mexico State, despite some socially conservative and illiberal sectors close to AMLO, has been highly socially progressive, pushing and succesfully passing laws that allow for abortion; gay marriage; gay adoptions; and much more initiatives.

Especilly since the Arce/Círigo brothers are fully backed by PAN and PRI in their attempt to establish the "City Party," it seems pretty clear their motivations are particularly opportunistic and that they only seek to carve out a niche for themselves, rather than representing a "new" political force, while the PAN and PRI obviously cherish any initiative that will potentially drain strength from the PRD, which has Mexico City as its main power base.

(It is noteworthy that the Partido Socialdemócrata, which was allied with the PRD but clearly a competitor, and which was also represented in the ALDF, expired due to the lack of voter support. Former PSD members have now flocked to the new Partido de la Ciudad).

Then, on Dec. 14, came the counterattack from the left, the PRD, and Ebrard: The Comisión de Asuntos Político-Electorales in the Mexico City legislature (ALDF) passed a change to the city's Código Electoral (wow called Código de Instituciones y Procedimientos Electorales )  that simply put stipulates that new parties will need to have the support of 2 percent of registered voters in 14 of Mexico City's 16 boroughs - at least 147.000 members, while it will need two percent of the vote to remain a legal party.

The law was published in the Gaceta Oficial four days later, making it official.

Now, the electoral code was also amended to include gender quotas (40% for women) and more party financing, yet the 2% clause was clearly a counterattack by Ebrard to prevent the formation of a new party, and quickly drew fire from the protagonists of the "City Party," who accuse him of authoritarianism, and for having implemented his own Ley Ebrard, a reference to the now-infamous Ley Peña of Enrique Peña Nieto in Mexico State.

My take on this: The comparison is utterly false and misleading. A 2-percent limit, as Ebrard points out, is in line with federal regulations for a national party, and is far from authoritarian or even particularly strenuous. Indeed, it is in nobody´s interest, above all in terms of governability, to fragment political party representation by having too low barriers to entry for new parties. Indeed, virtually every successful democracy has some kind of electoral threshold. The change in law was passed by unanimity in commission, and then by the Mexico City legislature a couple of days later.

Yet its opponents immediately cried foul, later announcing it would be impugned legally.
I really do not think they can get far with this, and I hardly would regard it a strike for democracy if they should. The bitterness is palpable; René Arce, who is still a senator, astonishingly accused Ebrard of being in cahoots with Calderón in terms of launching a "citizen candidacy" for Ebrard that PAN would back in 2012.

Despite Arce´s bitterness, this is just silly: Ebrard has already declared himself a candidate for the PRD party nomination, and as such can not be a "citizen candidate." Moreover, the PRD has on countless occasions declared IT WILL NOT RUN WITH PAN IN 2012, as has Ebrard himself.

Arce did manage something with his bitter outbursts: The most antagonistic wings in the PRD, the social democrats of the Nueva Izquierda and the andresmanuelistas movement-advocates of the IDN came together, in an utterly rare display of unity, to condemn Arce´s accusations.

 Now that´s quite a feat.

Gabino Cué counterattacks as Oaxaca political instability in municipalities continue

As groups mostly tied to the PRI continue the "taking" of 20 municipalities, most of them of the usos y costumbres type, where they refuse to hand over power, following 8 decades of hegemony, to the opposition, the state electoral institute of Oaxaca, IEEA, quite abruptly annulled the electoral result in a whopping 47 (or 48) districts.

Yet Governor Gabino Cué reacted quite strongly to this, arguing that "something failed" in the EEAA, questioning the EEAA´s decision as "strange" and unprecedented.

Moreover, in addition to promising "measures" against the taking of the 20-plus municipalities, mostly due to post-electoral disputes, Cué met with the provisional authorities of the 48 districts where the elections were cancelled, and announced that they would not receive any resources or be allowed to carry out major works, until new and duly elected authorities come to power. Not too subtly, he warned against the elections bringing into power new political groups" given that in the districts were the elections were cancelled, they had been overwhelmingly won by Cué's opposition.

Cué appears to be putting his foot down and taking a stand here: This is a good sign for the authority of his administration.

Mexico State elections most expensive of 2011: 1.673 billion pesos

Given its status as the most populous entity in Mexico, with 10.5 million potential voters, it is hardly a surprise that the upcoming Mexico State elections will the most expensive this year, at a cost of 1.673 billion pesos. Let us hope it is money well worth spending and that they will be free, fair, democratic, and equitable.

Here´s a nice story from La Jornada breaking down the spending in this and other states.

The challenges of reforestation and the Pro Árbol tree-planting program

A nice graphic from Milenio on the extent of Mexico´s forests:

The newspaper reptorts, using data from CONEVAL (Consejo Nacional de Evaluación de la Política de Desarrollo Social), that the ambitious Pro Árbol tree-planting program of Felipe Calderón (expanded from that of Vicente Fox and of Ernesto Zedillo before him) have had a survival rate of only 55 percent, while in 12 states, the program has had no success at all. Notably, 50 percent of all deforestation is happening in only four states: Campeche, Quintana Roo, Yucatán and Chiapas.

While depressing figures, given its 5-billion pesos in spending, this is actually better than earlier reports from some NGOs that suggested even lower numbers. Moreover, the survival rate is increasing: It is up from 46 % in 2005, and only 28% in 2001.

Mexican reforestation has been touted internationally as a success story, yet clearly huge challenges remains.

"PRI, Party that Governs"? Rather, party that contracts massive debts

PAN national president Gustavo Madero lashed out against the PRI for what can rightfully be described as reckless spending with very little to show for it:

- In Chihuahua, former PRI Governor José Reyes Baeza left new Governor César Duarte a debt of more than 13 billion pesos, 869 percent (!) higher than when Baeza assumed in 2004.
- In Nuevo León, Rodrigo Medina took office with a debt of 27 billion pesos, 222 higher than when his PRI predecessor José Natividad González Parás took office in 2003
- In Veracruz, Fidel Herrera left a debt of 9 billion pesos, 163 higher than in 2003
- In Tamaulipas, the thoroughly incompetent Eugenio Hernández left a 9 billion debt, 582 percent higher than when he took office
- Even Humberto Moreira, the young and dynamic golden boy who is set to lead the PRI, left Coahuila with a debt of 1.6 billion pesos, up from 273 million pesos when he came into office  - though in the case of Coahuila, at least the state has quite a bit of achievements to show for this spending.

And let us not forget Mexico State, the disaster that Enrique Peña Nieto is heralding as a model for the rest of the country: 1.5 billion in debt in 2004 became.... 37 billion in debt by 2010!

All this from PRI, the party that claims it is the only one that really knows how to govern - and may win back national power in 2012.

Legionaries of Christ, that of child rapist Marcial Maciel, turn 70; Mexican Church ends truce

After a brief Christmas "truce" (the church´s own word), the Mexican Catholic Church is again on the attack, in the process sounding like a prepubescent, immature 11-year old. From its organ Desde La Fe, the Mexican Catholic Church, among the world´s most reactionary and historically anti-democratic, comes the following: The Mexico City government and/or the Mexico City Legislature (the Church never seems to be able to distinguish fully between the two) are "true secular Talibans," and

"individuals intolerant to criticism, fundamentalists in their immoral principles, incapable of accepting the challenge of dialogue with rationality and law."

A better description of the Mexican Church, rather than the Mexico City government, is hard to come by. The Freudian reference here is just too tempting to resist.

But today is also another important day for the Church: The Legionaries of Christ/Legion of Christ is turning 70 years today. Los Legionarios de Cristo, to recall, was founded by whom?
a) A fascist
b) A child raper
c) An incestuous pedophile raping his own childen
d) A morphine junkie
e) All of the above.

You got it: All of the above. Marcial Maciel founded the Legionaries in 1940, yet his name has brought shame to his native Michoacán ever since the scandals involving his habitual raping of children and teenage boys, which even included his own children - yes, he fathered several, though never accepted paternity - really became known to the wider public in 2000.

Yet back to the Mexican Church. I am currently reading the absolutely marvelous and fresh-off-the press book "Marcial Maciel: The Story of a Criminal" by Mexican journalist Carmen Aristegui. I am not done with it yet, but it appears absolutely stunning, and well worth your time and money. Among the key testimonies in this book, a key conclusion is drawn that while Marciel Maciel was a sick and evil man - he never asked for forgiveness, manipulating his victims into believing they were doing god´s will - an even bigger story is that ever since the 1950s, stories abounded, including letters to the Vatican, detailing the abuses of Maciel, yet they were constantly ignored, for a half century, by both the Vatican and the Mexican Church. Indeed, two of the individuals who come out the worst are exactly Norberto Rivera, head of the Mexican Church, who defended Maciel to the extreme, covering up his abused of hundreds or thousands of children, as well as Ratzinger himself, who accepted that Maciel was doing bad things, yet argued, as cardinal, that he was nonetheless beloved by Pope John Paul II, and that the case was better left alone. Only toward the end of the 2000s did the Church admit to Maciel crimes, though this is hardly the end of it: As Aristegui exposes, the Legion and the Vatican may have erased the image of Macial from its annals, yet the organization remains intact, as does the vertical, authoritarian structures that allowed for the abuse in the first place.

It will be up to others to outline the legal responsibility of Ratzinger and Norberto Rivera for having essentially protected a child raper, knowing full well that Marcial Maciel was one. Yet it certainly puts into perspective the church´s recent declarations against the Mexico City Government

Dramatic turn of events in Mexico State: PAN and PRD may drop out of race

cThe leaders of the local branches of the PAN and PRD in Mexico State, Germán Olivares and Luis Sánchez Jiménez respectively, announced that given the skewed playing field resulting from the infamous Ley Peña introduced by Governor Enrique Peña Nieto to disadvantage the opposition, as well as the control by PRI of both the state´s electoral institute and electoral tribual, the parties are considering withdrawing from the race entirely. This happened after listening to the discourses of the Mexico State electoral institute (IEEM) councilors Juan Carlos Villareal, Jesús Jardón Nava, José Martínez Vilchis and Policarpo Montes de Oca, who in essence fully dismissed PAN´s and PRD´s concern regarding the election. The four councilors are fully identified with the PRI, and make out 4 out of the 7 councilors on the IEEM.

This announcement is quite dramatic. According to the party leaders, the executive committees of PAN and PRD will this week evaluate whether they will actually withdraw from the contest.

One worst case scenario coming to mind: PAN and PRD withdraws, while AMLO, convinced as always that "the people" is with him, runs with PT, loses badly, yet his participation legitimizes a 75-percent victory in favor of the PRI candidate.

Ahead of 2011 Mexico State election: PRI majority in state electoral institute and tribunal

When Mexico State goes to the urns on July 3 this year, the ruling PRI can count on a majority both on the state´s electoral institute (Instituto Electoral del Estado de México, IEEM), which organizes the elections, and on the state electoral tribunal (Tribunal Electoral del Estado de México, TEEM), which has the final word in approving them.

Given that the make-up of both institutions reflect the make-up of the state congress, where PRI since 2009 holds a majority, this is not illegal, but is yet another sad case of the "partyization" of these all-important electoral organs, where parties use their strength in congress to send "their" councilors and electoral judges to the IEEM and TEEM, rather than objective and neutral individuals selected for their qualifications.

Given PRI´s historic propensity for institutional transgressions, as well as Mexico State Governor Enrique Peña Nieto´s eagerness to change Mexico State institutions and laws at his whim, we might be in for serious post-electoral trouble the coming July.

Oaxaca usos y costumbres: In 27 municipalities, PRI resist with violence relinquishing power

During this week's change of power of these 570 municipalities, many of which the PRI had lost for the very first time, PRI thugs resisted with violence relinquishing power in at least 27 of them. In San José Tenango muncipality, for instance, a group led by losing PRI candidate Basilio Martínez Calvo, shot and attacked with machetes seven supporters of the incoming mayor Emilio Herrera Martínez, of the leftwing PRD, as well as smashing the mayor office and setting a vehicle on fire. 

Amador Jara Cruz, head of the Oaxaca state PRD branch, said the priísta thugs were encouraged by Federal Deputy Elpidio Concha Arellano of the PRI, with the explicit intent of destabilizing the new state government of Gabino Cué.

(El Universal reports that the transition was delayed in 48 municipalities due to violence and disturbances)

With the coming to power of Gabino Cué Monteagudo as head of a broad left coalition that was also backed by the right-leaning PAN, Oaxaca recently changed governor, ending more than 80 years of PRI hegemony. Until the historic elections in July 2010, the PRI also had managed a majority of the state's 570 municipalities, out of which only 152 elect their leadership through a competition by political parties, while the remaining 3/4 are so-called usos y costumbres, electing/selecting leaders through traditional practices. While meant to guarantee a certain level of autonomy for Oaxaca's indigenous population, the system of communal power sharing, dating from the 16th century, has nonetheless been increasingly criticized for its potential for abuse, including discrimination against women, and of having been hegemonized by groups sympathetic to the PRI.

One case in point regarding discrimination is the infamous case of Santa María Quiegolani, a predominantly Zapotec community, where Eufrosina Cruz Mendoza three years ago was denied assuming as municipal president by the communal council because she was a woman. As critics of the usos y costumbres system (found predominantly in Oaxaca but also in a few other states) have pointed out, these municipalities remain among the least developed in Mexico, and are often quite socially regressive, to the point where the father of the family often decides the groom for his 12-year old daughter. (See article by Carlos Marín). As for Santa María Quiegolani, to its credit, the Oaxaca state congress just made her the new president of the legislature.

Many political actors, as well as the archbishop of Oaxaca, has called upon Governor Gabino Cué to revise the system. Perhaps the recent violent episodes in relation with the changing of power will provide more impetus toward having a serious look at whether the usos y costumbres really serve the benefit of the people, or whether they are merely subverted and abused by the PRI.