René Bejarano, he's like the wind

The powerful René Bejarano, head of various clienteles of pseudo-social movements and a long-time collaborator of AMLO, said he will keep a very low profile so as not "damage" the 2012 presidential candidate.

Rather, Bejarano says, he "will be like the wind, felt but not seen."


Many will remember Bejarano from the 2004 video scandals. He spent a time in jail while his wife Dolores Padierna became nominal head of his party faction within the PRD, the IDN.

The mafioso-like utterance aside, for the sake of AMLO's reputation, and to be sure, for that of the PRD, let's hope he sticks to his word.

Bejarano's party faction IDN declares in favor of AMLO 2012, G-8 dissolved

The PRD faction Izquierda Democrática Nacional (IDN), headed in practice by the infamous René Bejarano, officially lined up behind the 2012 candidacy of Andrés Manuel López Obrador, following an IDN conference.

The IDN faction was badly hit following the 2004 videoscandals, yet has been recovering in the past few years. However, in a blow to IDN, the so-called "G-8," an alliance of the IDN and seven other factions, was dissolved, as a direct reaction to the return of Bejarano to the PRD, a lamentable development these and other factions opposed.

René Bejarano shows his movement's muscles.

Bejarano's back for sure - indeed, I am not entirely sure one can even argue he was really "gone."
While René Bejarano received a heavy blow following the video scandals of 2004, where a tape of Bejarano was shown on national TV where AMLO's personal secretary stuffed bags full of cash in illegal contributions, he simply relegated nominal control over his faction in the PRD, known now as Izquierda Democrática Nacional (IDN), to his wife Dolores Padierna, one of PRD's most controversial politicians (even AMLO vetoed her cnadidacy for a senator seat in 2006), who like her husband has been embroiled in a long list of scandals the past two decades or so.

Regardless, Bejarano kept somewhat quiet and keeping a relatively low profile, until the formation of a "new" "social movement, " Movimiento Nacional por la Esperanza (MNE) or the national movement of hope.

This weekend, MNE held a rally at the Monument to the Revolution in Mexico City, even drawing in high-profile AMLO loyalists such as national deputies of the PT,  Porfirio Muñoz Ledo and  Gerardo Fernández Noroña, and senator Ricardo Monreal. The latter two are currently fighting over AMLO's blessing for a Mexico City mayoral candidacy.

Note, though, that also high-profile backers of Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard shared the platform with the disgraced Bejarano, such as José Ángel Ávila, secretary of government, and Alejandra Barrales, head of the city legislature. Both of them as well want to be Mexico City mayor, and as such are seeking to woo Bejarano and his MNE, a clientelist, top-down "social movement" simulacrum. So, to be sure, do AMLO and Ebrard: Both seek the 2012 presidency, and Bejarano will sell his support to the highest bidder.

The PRD's "G-8" group: A gift to Enrique Peña Nieto that just keeps on giving

G-8 is the name of eight factions in the PRD adamantly opposed to the current leadership of Jesús Ortega and his social-democratic Nueva Izquierda faction, which together with his allies Alianza Democrática Nacional and Foro Nuevo Sol have majority control of the party. Yet this does not matter to the "radicals" of the G-8, who repeatedly has demonstrated an utter lack of ability or willingness to accept the results of  votes or elections that do not favor them, resorting instead to coercioan and outright physical aggression to get their will through.

Now, the G-8, which are ultra-loyal to Andrés Manuel López Obrador (though many for very pragmatic and opportunistic reasons), have declared they will not wait until March, when a new PRD leader will be elected, but will physically attack the PRD headquarters where Ortega's office is located, and moreover seek to have Ortega kicked out of the PRD altogether, and also to have the secretary general of the PRD, Hortensia Aragón, removed.

What is one to make of these tactics? They certainly reveal a segment of the party that is simply unwilling to accept any defeats, yet far to willing to resort to violence. They are profoundly anti-democratic at heart. Ortega refers to them as reminiscent of the brownshirts of Nazi Germany, and the comparison is sadly not far off.

The most important of the G-8 group is the infamous Izquierda Democrática Nacional (IDN), created by René Bejerano, who remains its leader though he himself was kicked out/renounced from the PRD after the dollar-stuffing scandals of 2004. Ortega has accused Bejarano of being behind the latest offensive, as well as other lopezobradoristas such as Gerardo Fernández Noroña, and Mario Di Costanzo, and notably Mexico State governor Enrique Peña Nieto.

What is clear is that Dolores Padierna wants to be become the next PRD president, which will surely doom the party given her abysmal public image. Moreover, given that Mexican voters are long fed up with the intolerance and violence of the more radical elements of the PRD-AMLO backers, and above all of the incessant infighting of the party, the current debacle will certainly have only one sure winner: Peña Nieto.

Why the Mexican left may lose Mexico City in 2012

A couple of weeks ago, a presentation was held in Mexico for a new party called "Partido de la Ciudad" in Mexico City, which ostensibly seek to present a new "leftwing" alternative to PRD. The party is founded by ex-PRD members René Arce - still a senator for the party - and Víctor Hugo Círigo, who until 2009 headed the Mexico City legislature. The party is not yet officially registered and not much exists beyond its name, but at is "premiere," if one may, in a meeting held Nov. 14, the party attracted ex Partido Socialdemócrata (PSD members such as Alberto Begné, Robles Maloof and Adrián Lajous, but also in front row, notably panistas such as the nefarious PAN Senator Federico Döring, as well as Minerva Hernández, now a senator for PAN after she unceremoniously dumped the party that had here elected, PRD, and former national PRD deputy Ruth Zavalea, who is now campaigning for the PRI in Guerrero.

PSD, for one, is now extinct as a national party, but some groupings exist on the state level. However, its former national leader, Jorge Carlos Díaz, just announced that the new Partido de la Ciudady would be formed only in the Federal District, and will have a "progressive" profile, above all in favor of legalization of "all drugs."

The idea that Mexico City needs another socially liberal "progressive" party to further this agenda in Mexico City is quite suspect. The party will obviously sap votes from the PRD, and may at best, should it be registered, get a few seats in the Mexico City legislature, but at worst, should it present its own candidate for Mexico City mayor, provoke a split in the left that may allow a PAN or even PRI candidate for winning the 2012 elections. The PRD in Mexico City is, with the exception of the more socially conservatives backing AMLO's faction, a highly liberal party, socially speaking, having successfully pushed gay and women rights, including gay marriage and abortion rights. Many also favor decriminalization or even legalization. What are the true motives behind this new party?

Also, yesterday it was reported that Izquierda Democrática Nacional (IDN), the heavily clientelist and "social-movement"-based faction of the PRD led by René Bejarano (he of the 2004 dollar-stuffing fame), announced it will launch its own candidate for Mexico City mayor 2012.

Current mayor Ebrard will need the backing of the clientelist structures in IDN to have his successor elected, as well as to back his 2012 bid, and this may all simply be some posturing part of the bargaining process - it will not come for free - yet could also possibly bye  a step toward creating its own party based on IDN and Bejarano's own Movimiento Nacional por la Esperanza (MNE)

(Bejarano, notably, was expelled from the PRD and when I asked his wife Dolores Padierna a while back if he was involved in any PRD activities, she brushed it off. Padierna is nominally the head of IDN, but it is obvious that Bejarano pulls the threads. Of note, the IDN is pushing for Dolores Padierna to be a senatorial candidate for the PRD(!) - she is such a controversial, and unfit, choice that even AMLO in 2006 vetoed this.)

While the two groupings - the "Partido de la Ciudad" by the Cïrigo/Arce brothers, and the IDN/MNE by the Bejaranos - may have different motivations, they may well succeed in tearing the PRD and the left apart in Mexico City, and hand it to the opposition. It seems pertinent to ask: Is this also their goal?

Rene Bejarano mobilizes movement supporters yet bides his time

René Bejarano is biding his time. This weekend, in a show of strenght, AMLO's one-time political operator filled a stadium of followers of his Movimiento Nacional por la Esperanza, or "National Movement of Hope," a relatively new movement-based outfit with which he is currently identitied.

Bejarano harangued against"petty" and  "arrogant" politicians, in a marked anti-party discourse so typical of the kind of "social movements" represented by Bejarano, even though the party current IDN, founded by Bejarano yet nominally led by his wife Dolores Padierna, remains one of the largest within the PRD. 

Within the PRD, the IDN, while appearing as one of the most "radical" of PRD's factions unequivocally loyal to AMLO, remains nonetheless and inherently opportunisit personal tool of Bejarano-Padiern  that might well switch to back AMLO's successor as Chief of Government of Mexico City, Marcelo Ebrard. 

Notably, Bejarano has been observed several times recently meeting with Ebrard, who is seeking the support of Bejarano's clientelist networks for his 2012 presidential candidacy. Whether Bejarano will go for AMLO or Ebrard will in the end be a question of who will be the highest bidder.

AMLO threatens to leave the PRD if PAN-PRD alliances continue

On tour in Chiapas to promote his book and, more importantly, his 2012 presidential candidacy, AMLO came out very hard  against the now-famous PAN-PRD state alliances, notably threatening to leave the party should the PAN-PRD alliances continue: 

"From now on I am warning you that we are going to draw a very clear line because it would be an act of treason. We have nothing to do with PAN, which stole the presidency of the republic form us in 2006...This alliance is wrong; I am against it. I don't accept that the PRD unites with the PAN; it is going to be a great betrayal if the PRD leaders want to unite with the panistas toward the 212 presidential elections."

The declarations, using his strongest language so far against the party of which he is still nominally a member, must be seen in context of this weekend's meeting of the PRD's national council (still ongoing). The council just voted 146-97 against the proposal of Dolores Padierna (IDN) to put the alliances on hold, a test of strength where the pro-alliance group of Jesús Ortega came up on top. The alliances will, as agreed earlier, be left to each individual state council - the highest PRD authority in each of Mexico's federal units - so that the local PRD branches will have the final decisions. 


Given this delegation of power to the state level, AMLO's words are on the surface peculiar, in the sense that if is not clear why possible future PRD decisions, decided upon centrally and to be affirmed on the state levels, to enter into more PAN alliances would constitute "treason." Indeed, if anyone has committed treason, party wise, it is AMLO, who notably ditched the PRD in the 2009 federal elections and asked his followers to not cast a vote for the PRD but instead PT and Convergencia, given hia failure to impose Alejandro Encinas as the PRD's national president in 2008. Yet in AMLO-speak, of course "treason" simply refers to the practice that the PRD is not anymore fully toeing the line and obeying the commands of its former presidential candidate.


In parallel, it is equally clear that the movement-party advocates within the PRD, will not obey to the majority - democratic - will; having lost an additional vote 142-93 to call for new internal PRD elections for party president in December, IDN and its allies simply resorted to their timeworn tactics of coercion, by "taking" the speakers podium, preventing any further discussions of the council. It is an embarrassing charade. 

AMLO will seek to retake control of the PRD this weekend

Despite having failed to have Alejandro Encinas elected as PRD president in 2008 - a cochinero that took 8 months to resolve, and nearly tore the PRD apart - AMLO is going again on the offensive to retake control of the PRD, through calling upon his followers, loyalists or opportunists alike, to kick out the national PRD leadership.

This weekend, the movement-advocates within the PRD - those who are often labeled as "radicals," yet who like AMLO are often socially conservative and want the PRD to remain intimately tied to AMLO - are launching a direct attack on the leadership of Jesús Ortega and his social democratic Nueva Izquierda faction, which currently controls the party. 


Eight corrientes have signed on to a declaration that calls for Ortega to step down in December 2010, but that also attacks the recent alliances with PAN. Judging by the statements of some, the goal is also to simply have Ortega ousted as leader this weekend.

Ortega, to recall, only started his 3-year presidency in December 2008 and his three-year term would then end in 2012. More important still, party disunity and yet another harrowing internal fight - the 2008 internal election took eighth months to resolve, and nearly destroyed the party - is simply the last thing the PRD needs. Especially given the hugely important elections in Guerrero and above all Mexico State next year, it seems hard to fathom that Ortega's opponents are going on the war path. Yet this infighting can only be understood from the logic of movement-advococates: While Ortega and Nueva Izquierda, along with his principal ally Alianza Democrática Nacional (ADN), seek to build an institutionalized organization autonomous of its old strongman, AMLO and the movement-advocates want the PRD to remain a loose movement-like party that is chiefly a tool at the disposal of a "cause," which, it is now clear, remains AMLO's presidential bid. Amazingly, AMLO and the movement-advocates are willing to risk yet another brutal internal party war by launching their nth attack on Ortega.

Yet while eight corrientes or internal party factions have signed on to the war document against its leadership, they do not appear to have the votes: Only IDN, led nominally by Dolores Padierna but de facto by her disgraced husband René Bejarano, has a significant number of councilors, but all the others, including Izquierda Social of Martí Batres, who holds the powerful portfolio of secretary of social development in Mexico City, and Red de Unidad Nacional de las Izquierdas (RUNI), which was recently launched by AMLO ultraloyalist Alejandro Encinas and also attracts some old cardenistas, have still very little presence on the PRD's National Council, and it seems doubtful they will get the 160 or so votes required to oust Ortega. 

Miguel Borbosa, who took over as national coordinator of Nueva Izquierda after Jesús Zambrano, in turn, accused some of the Ortega opponents within PRD to be tied to Enrique Peña Nieto. To be sure, should Ortega be ousted, the PAN-PRD alliance in Mexico State will tumble, and Peña Nieto is almost certain to have a priísta succeed him as governor of Mexico State. As such, Peña Nieto can only hope that Andrés Manuel López Obrador's attack on Ortega will be successful. Regardless, expect quite a ruckus this weekend.

Will AMLO succeed in tumbling the PAN-PRD alliances?

Mexico State Governor Enrique Peña Nieto used the occasion of his fifth Report to the Mexico State Congress to attack the PAN-PRD alliances. Peña Nieto, in the clearest yet sign of his fear of such an opposition alliance, absurdly and shamelessly likened these alliances by two democratic parties to a threat equivalent to that of organized crime. It was a moment of infamy.


Yet Peña Nieto may soon breathe a sigh of relief: GAP, the Grupo de Acción Política, which claims a majority on the PRD's Mexico State council, declared its opposition to a PAN-PRD alliance and a common candidate in next year's state elections to replace Peña Nieto's successor. GAP allied with current national PRD leader Jesús Ortega in 2008, yet now opposes Ortega's plans for a common candidate, and is reportedly backing AMLO's bid to be PRD's presidential candidate in 2012.  GAP, notably, wants its leader Horacio Duarte to be the PRD's gubernatorial candidate, and its recent opposition to the alliances has the semblance of a quid pro quo with AMLO's supporters. AMLO, to recall, has been adamantly against the PAN-PRD coalitions since the start, though several of his "devoted" followers such as the IDN faction, tacitly agreed to the alliances. Now, however, IDN and other corrientes are vocally denouncing them, in Mexico State and elsewhere, following AMLO's bidding. And it seems likely that GAP is now doing the same thing.


PRD national deputy and coordinator of its parliamentary group Alejandro Encinas, also a strong contender for the Mexico State nomination, somewhat bizarrely contested Peña Nieto arguing that the only threat to fear is the unity of the left, meaning PRD-PT-Convergencia. Yet Encinas knows very well that Peña Nieta was referring to a broader PAN-PRD alliance, and not just one by the three left parties.


Meanwhile, in the PRD proper, despite the huge success of the recent alliances in Oaxaca, Sinaloa, and Puebla, the more "radical" elements in the party such as the IDN and others are yet again  clamoring for Jesús Ortega to step down as party president. So much for party unity in the face of a clear adversary: In fine Stalinist tradition, the andremanualistas and opportunists of the party are at least as bent on  attacking the social-democratic wing of the PRD than either PRI or PAN, for that matter. 


Conspiracy journalist par excellence, Ricardo Alemán, claims that "it remains clear that there will be no PAN-PRD alliance in Mexico State and in Guerrero, and with the help of PAN, PRI will snatch from PRD the states of Baja California Sur and Guerrero." 
This seems to me to be jumping the gun at this point, even for Alemán.

Cecilia Romero: When will this inept official be relived of the "duties" she failed to perform?

When will Cecilia Romero be relived of the"duties" that she certainly has failed to perform as head of the National Institute of Migration? Very soon, it seems: Interior Minister Blake Mora refuses to confirm that she will remain in her post.  


Proceso reports in this week's print edition that the National Human Rights Commission and the national ombudsman for years have asked that INM take preventive measures to stop the veritable industry of kidnapping immigrants. Romero has never even bothered to send them a reply, let alone take any serious measures. The slaughtered 72 immigrants, dramatic as it is on its own, is unfortunately only the tip of the iceberg. Yet while Romero has weathered scandals in the past, I am hard pressed to believe she'll survive this one. 

Alejandra Barrales declares her candidacy for Mexico City... of sorts.

Alejandra Barrales, the flight attendant-cum-leader of the legislative assembly in the federal district (ALDF), announced during her report on the activities of the ALDF that she had "an aspiration, an aspiration that many of those here share with me; you know very well, because you know me, that I will work incessantly to achieve this aspiration." While likely the entire crowd took the message to be her declaration for candidacy, she then meekly added, "my aspiration is that in this city we can guarantee the right of every citizen to happiness." If Barrales didn't have the guts to take it all out - the field for candidates is getting quite crowded already - consider it at the very least a feeler, from a very likely candidate who is moreover one of AMLO's favorites for the position as chief of Mexico City. 


Barrales, a member of the more radical Izquierda Social faction of the PRD,  has held a range of public positions, from secretary general of the union of airline attendants (ASSA) to federal deputy to secretary of tourism in Ebrard's government to president of the PRD in Mexico City to now head of the ALDF. She has hardly excelled in any of these positions. 

Luis Armando Reynoso, outgoing governor of Aguascalientes, kicked out of the PAN

Luis Armando Reynoso Femat was officially expelled from PAN following a vote on its National Executive Committee - by unaminity, no less. The case was rather clear cut: Reynosa Femat went out of his way to sabotage the PAN candidate for governor in the recent elections, Martín Orozco Sandoval, campaigning instead for the PRI's Carlos Lozano de la Torre, who came out on top. Reynoso Femat didn't even bother to show up at the hearing, and the expulsion only means he will not have to resign to rejoin the PRI, a party he left in 1995.

On the subject of money laundering: When will the United States do its part?

Calderón's belated initiative to counter money laundering through limitations on cash limits is laudable, but again, the key may lie on the U.S. side, where most of the money is being made in the first place. 

As Martin Woods, formerly of Wachovia, put it: "“If you don’t see the correlation between the money laundering by banks and the 22,000 people killed in Mexico, you’re missing the point."
Woods is referrring to anks like Wachovia, for which he headed a anti-money-laundering unit 2006-2009, but quit in disgust when it became clear that his bosses didn't like what he found: That drug gangs were using the bank to funnel billions to Mexico. 

Why not indict the bastards? That's the tricky part: According to an excellent investigation by Bloomberg a few weeks back,

"No big U.S. bank... has ever been indicted for violating the Bank Secrecy Act or any other federal law. Instead, the Justice Department settles criminal charges by using deferred-prosecution agreements, in which a bank pays a fine and promises not to break the law again.‘No Capacity to Regulate’Large banks are protected from indictments by a variant of the too-big-to-fail theory.Indicting a big bank could trigger a mad dash by investors to dump shares and cause panic in financial markets, says Jack Blum, a U.S. Senate investigator for 14 years and a consultant to international banks and brokerage firms on money laundering."

The United States, then, in addition to being responsible for much of the drug consumption that fuels Mexico's "drug war," and of putting in place very few obstacles to selling the assault rifles and guns used to kill Mexican police, civilians, and drug rivals, for fear out of financial panic blocks a full indictment of the criminal wrongdoings of big banks such as Wachovia, meekly asking them pay merely a small fine and to promise not to do it again...

It has often been noted that the key to win Mexico's "drug war" is found in the United States and its policies, and the absurd banking laws of the latter country only throws more fuel on that argument.

Onésimo Cepeda makes one declaration that makes sense, and one that does not

Onésimo Cepeda, bishop of Ecatepec and a very important clergyman in Mexico State - he is very close to current governor Enrique Peña Nieto - is hardly known for any intelligent declarations. He is also of highly dubious morals, whether one uses the bible or not as reference point: He has long been under investigation for transgressions such  money laundering and fraud, and may well face federal charges soon.

Be that as it may, Onésimo Cepeda declared yesterday that drug kingpins should be excommunicated from the church. If nothing else, I gather it would end some of the highly ambivalent attitude of the church toward the narcos, which have given the church substantial amounts of donations over the years, and attach at least a minimum of further stigma. 

Yet it is what follows that seems rash to me: Cepeda suggests that priests should also turn into informers. While he didn't mention the practice of Confession specifically, he said:

"One must denounce those that are behind the drug violence, and many times we know where they are." It seems to me that is turning every priest as well into a direct target for assassination by the drug gangs. We know very well how the drug gangs deal with informers, perceived or real, and if a priest may be perceived as having given information that led to the apprehension or gunning down of a gang member, I fear this opens up for revenge killings of perceived - or real, given Cepeda's comments - priest informers, and that Cepeda's comments may end up endangering the clergy.

From Tabasco, AMLO appreciates Castro's praise

Following Castro's praise of AMLO and his recent book - Castro coincides, for one, that AMLO won in 2006 but that "the empire didn't let him assume power" - AMLO responded from Tabasco:

"I appreciate the comments and opinions of the distinguished personality of Fidel Castro, and whether or not we agree with his ideas and his political practice, he is without doubt one of the most important world leaders of our time, as were Gandhi, Roosevelt, Winston Churchill, Charles de Gaulle, Martin Luther King, Ho Chi Minh, Salvador Allende and our beloved Nelson Mandela:"

As it were, in Tabasco, tierra natal of AMLO, the PRD is undergoing a massive internal turmoil. AMLO claims to not be part of it and that he stays away from the party organization in his home state, yet plenty of evidence exists to the contrary. Recently, the Tabasco PRD leader Javier May Rodríguez, frankly admitted that while the party has several candidates for the 2012 gubernatorial election, in the end the candidate will be whomever AMLO chooses. 


It is worth recalling that AMLO as well in 2008 imposed his brother José Ramiro López Obrador as PRD leader, who finally stepped down in  after wreaking havoc within the party, and is under investigation for embezzlement and criminal conspiracy following his stint as mayor of the municipality of Macuspana, though as coming from a new local government controlled by PRI, it might well be political in nature.


While on this topic, it is worth noting that another AMLO brother, Arturo López Obrador resigned from the PRD last May, yet unlike AMLO, who not casts his lot with PT, Arturo joined his brother's stated arch-enemy PRI to back Javier López Zavala as the PRI candidate to replace the protector of pederasts and harasser of journalists, outgoing governor Mario Marín. 
Despite AMLO's little brother Pedro Arturo campaigning for López Zavala, Marín's anointed successor lost badly, if surprisingly.

Party leaders meet with president Calderón in "Security Dialogue"

The decision by Felipe Calderón to convoke a "Security Dialogue" with the leaders of Mexico's party  demonstrates at the very least a modicum of willingness to take their perspectives into account. All parties - PRI, PAN, Convergencia, PVEM, and PANAL - attended, with the exception of the ultra-pejista Partido del Trabajo, PT  - which also shows a certain level of maturity on their part. One cannot blame the president for refusing to listen and then reject an invitation to offer one's criticism in public. (That is, unless on is PT, which called for a national dialogue following the assassination of PRI's gubernatorial candidate in Taumalipas in June, yet now left the chair assigned to the party empty, recalling AMLO's empty chair in the first TV debate of 2006).

PRI and PRD were the most critical, and PRD offered harsh yet legitimate criticism of the government's handling of the "war on drugs." 


PRD party leader Ortega duly criticized the politicization of the Attorney General's office - that is, using its prosecuting power as a political instrument, and repeats its very reasonable demand that this institution, responsible for investigating and prosecuting federal crimes, should rather be autonomous. 


Ortega also gets the quote of the day:
"Eliot Ness didn't defeat the liquor mafias in the United States; the legalization of alcohol did."


The national PRD is also now on the record, to my knowledge for the first time, as supporting legalization of drugs. While many of its cadres have expressed this view, I can't recall having heard this expressed in the name of the PRD proper. 


Update: As was to be expected, Dolores Padierna again called for Ortega's resignation for the umpteenth time (I've completely lost track of the number), this time for meeting with Calderón. 
She represents the worst sectarian and stalinist elements of the PRD.

A reminder from Rosario Ibarra de Piedra

Rosario Ibarra de Piedra, head of the Senate´s Human Rights Commission, reminds us of a truth that needs to be repeated ever more often in these days of disappearances and extrajudicial executions: 

“I am worried about the situation that happens in the country. One has resorted to a means very much utilized by the government, which is to detain citizens and claim  they are narcos, that they are delinquents and belong to organized crime, because now everyone is walking around masked with hoods, blaming everything on crime, but I say that the fault, the responsibility, is of the government."

Words to consider. It brings to mind what happened in the early months of the organized mass murder under the Argentine dictatorship, beginning in 1976. As men dressed in civilian clothes snatched away young men and women from the streets, it was not uncommon to hear, from their neighbours, "Well, por algo será. They must have done something."


While some of the murdered and kidnapped politicians, police officers, functionaries, members of social movements in Mexico undoubtedly had connections to organized crime, one must fall into the temptation of thinking this as a first resort: The ¨War on Drugs" provides a very convenient cover for powers that be to rid oneself of bothersome opponents or mere witnesses.

Guerrero, and "Un asesinato político" (2010).

Guerrero's been a bit in the news lately regarding the heating-up of the battle to replace Goveronor Zeferino Torreblanca. A few days ago, the first official PAN-PRD coalition of 2011 was announced, and to the surprise of few, Guerrero was the first to be clinched. I had a conversation a few weeks ago with José Espina, head of PAN's National Elections Commission, where he anticipated this decision as a done deal, together with other states. The states where he did not foresee any coalitions were Michoacán and Baja California Sur. When I asked him why, the obvious answer was, they're already governed by PRD governments. Yet so is Guerrero. Espina responded to this, basically, "yes, but the governor in Guerrero is very close to  our positions." I use this a segway to some quick comments on a book I just finished,  Tomás Tenorio Galindo's  Un asesinato político. 


Without excusing the at times paranoid-conspiratorial attitude of Mexican political commentators (Ricardo Alemán in El Universal pops to mind!), Mexico certainly has had its share of political assassinations that more than hint at the involvement of the powers-that-be, and which moreover have largely remained unsolved. 


Nearly a year ago, on Aug. 20, 2009, a notable assassination of a noted politician  - a "political assassination" to many, to be sure - took place in the state of Guerrero. Armando Chavarría, a former national legislator for the PRD, and then president of the Guerrero Congress as a local deputy, was assassinated outside his home. Chavarría was also the very likely PRD nominee to replace Zeferino as governor.

The brutal murder was condemned at the national level, including by President Calderón, and PRD President Jesús Ortega, with many other perredistas, condemned it as a political assassination. And this is indeed the main point of Tenorio Galindo's new book: Chavarría's murder was political in nature, and it had something - something - to do with Governor Torreblanca. Sounds vague?

In the introduction to the book, written by noted journalist Miguel Ángel Granados Chapa, we learn that the book "leads unequivocally to a disturbing conclusion: the government of Torreblanca was not unconnected to Chavarría's execution." Pretty strong stuff. 


The book sports a dramatic cover, where PRD leaders stand around a coffin draped with PRD's colors. For me it was not necessary: Being highly interested in learning more about the murder and as well more about local politics in Guerrero, I picked up the book.


A bit of background: 
Zeferino, while elected as PRD's nominee, is only affiliated with the party, and not even a member. He has been accused of being more of a panista than a perredista (he was the first PRD governor to recognize Calderón), in particular toward what his critics regard as outright repression of social movements in Guerrero. The book adds plenty of ammo to these critics. It notes, for one, that more than 30 perredistas have been murdered in Guerrero on his watch, and offers plenty of examples of his insensitivity toward his critics.
While I feel one cannot take all of these at face value - the author makes no efforts at all presenting other readings of these incidents - clearly there appears to be plenty of room for criticism of Torreblanca. Some key points are for instance his apparently incompetent/corrupt/brutal/etc attorney general, also criticized by the CNDH; repression of demonstrators; the lack of any efficient government action to clear up the kidnap and murder of indigenous activists;  riding roughshod over the State Congress, and so forth. 


Now what about the murder? 
Well, there are some tantilizing facts. The author argues that the governor ordered Chavarría's bodyguards to be taken away when he became a local deputy - he was previously a member of the state government - despite Chavarría's pleas for protection.
Crystal clear, as well, is the intense animosity between the governor and Chavarría. 
However, did the governor want Chavarría dead? Or rather, did he order him to be killed?

A very brief summary of the book and its evidence, inspired by Sergio Leone:


The Good: The book does offer quite  bit of information on Guerrero politics, and particularly on the fights Chavarría-Torreblanca. 


The Bad: The book is highly repetitive in these depictions.  I am also very critical of its use of sources: There are tons of very strong claims that are not backed up by any sources except tons of references to El Sur, a Guerrero newspaper where the writer works, but no page numbers, no headlines, nothing to go by in order to verify the book's many claims. There is much, and I mean much, innuendo here, with very little or no backing up. 
One claim the author repeats ad nauseam is that Zeferino came to power thanks to PRD - it is NOT that the PRD came to power thanks to Zeferino. Notwithstanding the argument that there is very little PRD presence in his government, which I think is fair, where is the evidence that the PRD could basically have put any candidate in 2005 and it would have won?  There is absolutely nothing to back this up; we are merely to take his word. 


Moving on: the author seems to be at pains to describe Chavarría as a man true to his leftwing convictions, while Zeferino has not an iota of perredismo within him. Many have criticized Zeferino for the same, to be sure. But let's be honest: Chavarría appears to be as well as a a man every bit as apt to wheel and to dirty deals, to engage in opportunism, destroy his enemies, etc, as Torreblanca. And then there is the case of the "60 women." Milenio published a report that the investigators of the crime had interviewed 60 Chavarría apparently had amorous relations with, 9 of them until his death, . That hardly warrants his murder, but it does suggest he was hardly a paragon of morality. Yes, this may be a leak to discredit a dead man and to derail an investigation, but the author merely dismisses it as irrelevant, without truly denying it. This is not trivial stuff. 


Also, the book may as well be seen as an attack on Jesús Ortega and his faction of the PRD, given that Torreblanca sided with Ortega in the 2008 internal election for PRD president. Yet it was not Ortega who pushed Torreblanca as candidate in 2005; rather, it was both AMLO and Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas. A minor point, yes, but a fact that does not fit so well with the author's story.


The Ugly: Main claim: Chavarría's murder was a political murder. And somehow, in some way, the Governor had something to do with it. Yet there is absolutely no evidence! This seems to me to be the main reason the author cannot make himself state clearly "Zeferino killed Chavarría," but rather resorts to endless suggestions, circumspect formulations, etc. This claim seem to rest principally on the fact that the governor himself might have withdrawn his bodyguards. Yet even this point seems to be contested. 




Coincidentally, I noted that today Milenio  has its own review of the book, arguing that it "leaves no room for doubts regarding the actions and those presumed responsible for them." 


After having read the book, I couldn't disagree more. 

Much ado about AMLO - and Ebrard

Not surprisingly, given AMLO's destape as presidential candidate this past Sunday, party colleagues, rivals etc  rush to offer their take on the situation. 
It's almost a year to the date since Ebrard admitted he was interested in the presidency.
Here's a run-down from El Universal on his strategy so far, in all essence one of "good governance" and highly publicized public works, as well as the expansion of social programs and creation of new ones.  


(His Prepa Si, for instance, appears an excellent initiative designed to help teenagers graduate with a bachillerato, or high school diploma.) 


As the article alludes to, being in power has both its advantages and disadvantages. Clearly Ebrard can use the programs to promote (in)directly his candidacy, but he cannot really promote, as does AMLO, a governmental project akin to AMLO's perennially vague "alternative project for the nation."


Ebrard's campaigning in favor of the July 4 alliances was also notable, especially when contrasted with AMLO's rejection of them. 


The honorable Senator Carlos Navarrete - one of the PRD's best assets - notes that AMLO is just"a pre candidate like the others," who will need to submit to the agreements negotiated with PRD/PT/Convergencia regarding who will be the left's candidate. I personally find it hard to believe that Navarrete truly thinks AMLO will respect any agreement whatsover. 


Alberto Anaya, PT leader, repeated obsequiously that he can have the PT party candidacy anytime (Read: "Please, please use us as we want to keep our party registry), claiming, in an exercise of utter sophistry, that this would still not breach AMLO's agreement. I mean, honestly, what is one to make of this sentence: "the PT already decided; nonetheless we will await the results of the poll"?


Luis Walton, leader of Convergencia - which competes with PT for the title of most-opportunist party in Mexico on the "left" - was a tad more cautious, noting that Ebrard was also in the running.  Dolores Padierna.... well, don't really care what she or IDN thinks. They will turn the cape to the wind no matter what - if Ebrard looks set to get the nomination, they will unceremoniously dump AMLO despite their prostrations of allegiance. 


Finally, as noted in an earlier post, AMLO's announcement would also likely lead to complains that he is breaching the new electoral rules on "pre-campaigning." Now, PAN has complained to the IFE about this issue. 

PRD corrientes

Speaking of PRD, Here's an excellent overview of the internal make-up

 of the PRD and its corrientes. While it is merely descriptive in the sense that it doesn't really analyze any differences between the corrientes, which I argue are real and substantial, it's very much updated. 

I find it odd that the article suggests that Bejarano will go for AMLO while Padierna will go for Ebrard- they are, after all, married, established the precursor to IDN together, and Padierna is as slavishly pro AMLO as they come - but that aside it looks very correct to me. 


(great graphic here, except from egregious error that Socorro Ceseñas is close to Jésus Ortega!)