Will AMLO succeed in tumbling the PAN-PRD alliances?

Mexico State Governor Enrique Peña Nieto used the occasion of his fifth Report to the Mexico State Congress to attack the PAN-PRD alliances. Peña Nieto, in the clearest yet sign of his fear of such an opposition alliance, absurdly and shamelessly likened these alliances by two democratic parties to a threat equivalent to that of organized crime. It was a moment of infamy.


Yet Peña Nieto may soon breathe a sigh of relief: GAP, the Grupo de Acción Política, which claims a majority on the PRD's Mexico State council, declared its opposition to a PAN-PRD alliance and a common candidate in next year's state elections to replace Peña Nieto's successor. GAP allied with current national PRD leader Jesús Ortega in 2008, yet now opposes Ortega's plans for a common candidate, and is reportedly backing AMLO's bid to be PRD's presidential candidate in 2012.  GAP, notably, wants its leader Horacio Duarte to be the PRD's gubernatorial candidate, and its recent opposition to the alliances has the semblance of a quid pro quo with AMLO's supporters. AMLO, to recall, has been adamantly against the PAN-PRD coalitions since the start, though several of his "devoted" followers such as the IDN faction, tacitly agreed to the alliances. Now, however, IDN and other corrientes are vocally denouncing them, in Mexico State and elsewhere, following AMLO's bidding. And it seems likely that GAP is now doing the same thing.


PRD national deputy and coordinator of its parliamentary group Alejandro Encinas, also a strong contender for the Mexico State nomination, somewhat bizarrely contested Peña Nieto arguing that the only threat to fear is the unity of the left, meaning PRD-PT-Convergencia. Yet Encinas knows very well that Peña Nieta was referring to a broader PAN-PRD alliance, and not just one by the three left parties.


Meanwhile, in the PRD proper, despite the huge success of the recent alliances in Oaxaca, Sinaloa, and Puebla, the more "radical" elements in the party such as the IDN and others are yet again  clamoring for Jesús Ortega to step down as party president. So much for party unity in the face of a clear adversary: In fine Stalinist tradition, the andremanualistas and opportunists of the party are at least as bent on  attacking the social-democratic wing of the PRD than either PRI or PAN, for that matter. 


Conspiracy journalist par excellence, Ricardo Alemán, claims that "it remains clear that there will be no PAN-PRD alliance in Mexico State and in Guerrero, and with the help of PAN, PRI will snatch from PRD the states of Baja California Sur and Guerrero." 
This seems to me to be jumping the gun at this point, even for Alemán.