The "return" of Carlos Salinas to active politics in Mexico has long been heralded - following AMLO, Salinas is the mover behind every one of Mexico´s ills - yet the claim appears increasingly justified. Not only did he issue yet-another book seeking to varnish his tattered presidency; according to Milenio, his recent visit to Yucatán, where he met with his admirer, PRI Governor Ivonne Ortega Pacheco, had as its further purpose to entice Ortega Pacheco to be Humberto Moreira´s running mate for the PRI presidency, as secretary general.
It makes perfect sense: Ortega Pacheco is in many ways the female equivalent of the Mexico State governor; like Peña Nieto, she has spent an exorbitant amount on the media promotion of her image; like Peña Nieto, she has also used her majority in the local state congress to steamroll a range of legislative initiative, ignoring input from the opposition. The most recent example of this happened just days ago, when the congress approved, in relation with the state budget, a whopping 217 articles in 48 hours.
Friday, December 31, 2010
Tlaxcala approves Law for the Protection of Migrants
Kudos to the state congress of Tlaxcala, which unanimously approved a law designed to protect migrants, both those leaving Tlaxcala for the United States, as well as those of other nationalities passing through or residing in Tlaxcala. Small it may be yet nonteheless a significant step forward for the protection of migrants human rights. The congress called upon incoming PRI governor Mariano González Zarur not to leave the law a "dead letter" in his sexenio.
For 2011: Prriority for the PRD's deputies to "defend IFE's autonomy"
The PRD, in outlining its legislative priorities for 2011, put "defend IFE's autonomy" high on its list. The party is accusing the PRI of trying to grab control of the Federal Electoral Institute through the nominations to the vacant positions as IFE councilors: PRI is seeking to name two of the three councilors, leaving one for PAN and none for the PRD. This is a highly serious omen: Keep in mind that PAN and the PRI's steamrolling of earlier IFE appointments and leaving out the PRD was a key ingredient in the 2006 "perfect storm," where the party had less than full confidence in the autonomy of the IFE going into that year's presidential election for the simple reason that PAN and PRI had irresponsibly left the PRD out of the negotiations.
Should PRI, through temporary legislative alliances, be left with two more IFE councilors... expect 2006 to be repeated as farce in 2012.
Should PRI, through temporary legislative alliances, be left with two more IFE councilors... expect 2006 to be repeated as farce in 2012.
Carlos Salinas 959-page book not on my reading list
As usually in Mexico I stock up on recent interesting books on current politics. So far I've aquired the most recent book by Carmen Aristegui on the child-raping fascist Marcial Maciel - great for bedtime stories - Soledad Loaza's recent collection of articles on the PAN, and Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas' recent memoirs. Yet speaking of memoirs, one book I will shy away from for many reasons is Carlos Salinas' recent desperate 959-page attempt to reinvent himself and defend his presidency. Yet my decision was not made merely to save a few pesos, or for ideological reasons: The book appears an absolute piece of junk, combining petty attacks on many of Mexico's intellectuals with an array of stuff that is simply made up.
A few cases in point:
- Salinas attacks the presidency of Fox and his first foreign minister, Jorge Castañeda for having voted in favor of the Iraq War! Where on earth does he get this from? First, as Castañeda points out, Mexico never voted - there was never a vote in UN, to recall, despite or in spite of Colin Powell's pathetic "presentation" of WMDs - yet more importantly, Fox was the entire time against Bush's war on Iraq.
- He is accusing Castañeda of having presented the thesis of Mexico as a "failed state" - though Castañeda has consistently argued against this view.
Now I admit I am not the world's greatest admirer of Jorge Castañeda, who, despite of many notable insights, in addition to being a bit of a pompous windbag has also opined far too often on topics of which he has very little knowledge. Yet compared with Salinas, he is an intellectual giant.
If Salinas can't even get such basic facts straights, or is as stupid as to knowingly and blatantly distorting them in this manner, his apologia is hardly worth anyone's time, and your 300 pesos should rather be spent elsewhere.
A few cases in point:
- Salinas attacks the presidency of Fox and his first foreign minister, Jorge Castañeda for having voted in favor of the Iraq War! Where on earth does he get this from? First, as Castañeda points out, Mexico never voted - there was never a vote in UN, to recall, despite or in spite of Colin Powell's pathetic "presentation" of WMDs - yet more importantly, Fox was the entire time against Bush's war on Iraq.
- He is accusing Castañeda of having presented the thesis of Mexico as a "failed state" - though Castañeda has consistently argued against this view.
Now I admit I am not the world's greatest admirer of Jorge Castañeda, who, despite of many notable insights, in addition to being a bit of a pompous windbag has also opined far too often on topics of which he has very little knowledge. Yet compared with Salinas, he is an intellectual giant.
If Salinas can't even get such basic facts straights, or is as stupid as to knowingly and blatantly distorting them in this manner, his apologia is hardly worth anyone's time, and your 300 pesos should rather be spent elsewhere.
Yet another IFE ruling in Peña Nieto's favor to be rejected by TEPJF
As noted earlier, I've grown increasingly wary of the IFE's decisions the past year or so as far too many have appeared to favor PRI and Mexico State Governor Enrique Peña Nieto, only to be rejected by Mexico´s highest electoral court, the TEPJF.
Yet another case in point: Earlier this month, the IFE notoriously deemed an ad by the PRD, where the party argued Peña Nieto was "fearful" of a political alliances, to be denigrating of his image (!). The PRD protested, and continued showing the ad, while it bleeped out the offensive phrase.
Yet what happened? The TEPJF on Dec. 24 (how i s that for work ethic!) ruled against the IFE, and ordered the ad to be allowed to air. The decision was not based on the merits of IFE´s argument but addressed a technical issue, but the point remains: The IFE to me has appeared far to trigger happy in censuring ads or "spots" against PRI and Peña Nieto, and has again been admonished by the TEPJF for doing so.
The PRD´s representative to IFE, Rafael Hernández, has become increasingly vocal in expressing frustration against the and its alleged breach of the "principle of neutrality.
On Dec. 13, IFE also rejected a complaint against Enrique Peña Nieto and then-Interior Minister Fernando Gómez-Mont for having made a pact where PAN agreed not to ally with PRD in gubernatorial elections, ostensibly in return for PRI backing of the federal budget. IFE declared ifself incompetente or not having jurisdiction to deal with the complaint filed by PRD, PT and Convergencia. The parties then announced they will also take this case to the TEPJF. Should the TEPJF again rule against the IFE... I believe the left may be well justified in smelling a rat.
Yet another case in point: Earlier this month, the IFE notoriously deemed an ad by the PRD, where the party argued Peña Nieto was "fearful" of a political alliances, to be denigrating of his image (!). The PRD protested, and continued showing the ad, while it bleeped out the offensive phrase.
Yet what happened? The TEPJF on Dec. 24 (how i s that for work ethic!) ruled against the IFE, and ordered the ad to be allowed to air. The decision was not based on the merits of IFE´s argument but addressed a technical issue, but the point remains: The IFE to me has appeared far to trigger happy in censuring ads or "spots" against PRI and Peña Nieto, and has again been admonished by the TEPJF for doing so.
The PRD´s representative to IFE, Rafael Hernández, has become increasingly vocal in expressing frustration against the and its alleged breach of the "principle of neutrality.
On Dec. 13, IFE also rejected a complaint against Enrique Peña Nieto and then-Interior Minister Fernando Gómez-Mont for having made a pact where PAN agreed not to ally with PRD in gubernatorial elections, ostensibly in return for PRI backing of the federal budget. IFE declared ifself incompetente or not having jurisdiction to deal with the complaint filed by PRD, PT and Convergencia. The parties then announced they will also take this case to the TEPJF. Should the TEPJF again rule against the IFE... I believe the left may be well justified in smelling a rat.
2011: What is to come
An excellent overview of the political relation of forces in Mexico, as well as the upcoming electoral calendar can be found here.
As 2010 comes to a close, it is worth noting that the PRI now controls 19 of Mexico's 32 federal entities. With these states - and using the state as the entity for measurement - the old ruling party governs 59 percent of Mexico's population; the PRD governs 20 percent; and the PAN 18 percent. It is also notable that the PRD and PAN, thanks to their unprecedented state-level coalitions to wrest power from the PRI in states that had never been governed by an opposition party (82 years of hegemony), wrested control from the PRI of 11 percent of Mexico's population - thanks to its gubernatorial victories in Oaxaca, Puebla, and Sinaloa.
2011 will see gubernatorial elections in Baja California Sur, Coahuila, Mexico State, Guerrero, Michoacán and Nayarit. The PRD leadership is seeking further state coalitions with PAN in Coahuila, Nayarit and, to be sure, Mexico State, all of which are adamantly opposed by AMLO. Given his rejection of the PRD leadership as "traitors" and active campaigning against the coalitions, will AMLO succeed in sabotaging them in 2011?
As 2010 comes to a close, it is worth noting that the PRI now controls 19 of Mexico's 32 federal entities. With these states - and using the state as the entity for measurement - the old ruling party governs 59 percent of Mexico's population; the PRD governs 20 percent; and the PAN 18 percent. It is also notable that the PRD and PAN, thanks to their unprecedented state-level coalitions to wrest power from the PRI in states that had never been governed by an opposition party (82 years of hegemony), wrested control from the PRI of 11 percent of Mexico's population - thanks to its gubernatorial victories in Oaxaca, Puebla, and Sinaloa.
2011 will see gubernatorial elections in Baja California Sur, Coahuila, Mexico State, Guerrero, Michoacán and Nayarit. The PRD leadership is seeking further state coalitions with PAN in Coahuila, Nayarit and, to be sure, Mexico State, all of which are adamantly opposed by AMLO. Given his rejection of the PRD leadership as "traitors" and active campaigning against the coalitions, will AMLO succeed in sabotaging them in 2011?
Non-aggression pact Ebrard-Peña Nieto
Also of note recently is the declaration by Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard that he and Mexico State Governor Enrique Peña Nieto has agreed to a a pact to "avoid conflicts" on the road to the 2012 presidential election. As far as I can see, no concrete details of this non-aggression pact has been revealed, though it is certainly an admission that the 2012 race is well on its way, and that its temperature is rising rapidly.
Ebrard also assured there will be no confrontation between him and AMLO in the coming year. I've also been told that pigs may indeed fly. We shall see.
Ebrard also assured there will be no confrontation between him and AMLO in the coming year. I've also been told that pigs may indeed fly. We shall see.
The PRD's new party president: Candidates ready
As announced on Dec 17, all of PRD´s main party factions agreed that the election for the successor to current PRD president Jesús Ortega will take place at the latest on March 19, and that the winner will immediately take office. This was a step forward: Right up until the last minute, the "radicals" in the PRD, most of whom are supporters of AMLO more than they are true backers of the PRD, threatened physical violence to force Ortega to step down. This particular segment of the PRD, led above all by the scandal-prone corriente IDN of René Bejarano-Dolores Padierna, has issued similar threats, and acted upon then, on numerous other occasions. It should be noted here that the March election is actually a concession from the Ortega camp: After all, he was elected for a three-year tenure in March 2008, yet was unable to take office until the end of that year due to the failure of the "radicals" (the quotation mark is there for a purpose: Many of them are highly socially conservative) to accept Ortega´s victory.
Three main candidates have now been lined up: Jesús Zambrano, national deputy for the party and member of Ortega´s social-democratic Nueva Izquierda wing; Hortensia Aragón, current secretary general of the party and of the Foro Nuevo Sol faction, which is currently allied with Ortega though it has been quite opportunistic in recent years in order to maintain its presence in the Mexico City government; and Dolores Padierna of the Izquierda Democrática Nacional.
The method by which the new party president will be elected has not yet been determined, though one alternative aired is by a 2/3 vote in the PRD's national council, where Ortega and his allies has a majority but not a 2/3 one.
My own thoughts: The party must at all costs avoid a divisive election by the mass base, which on every occasion has proved a disaster. Yet as El Universal notes, merely agreeing on the type of election brings the risk of rupture in itself. This is, in essence, the product of the the uneasy marriage between social democratic and left-leaning party builders on the one hand, and the anti-institutional and often populist movement-advocates, on the other, which has been the main source of the PRD's internal woes ever since its birth in 1989.
Michoacán and the PRD
Following the dramatic attacks by La Familia Michoacana on particular Dec. 8-10, and with the backdrop of the desafuero or removal of legislative immunity of the PRD deputy Julio Godoy Toscano, half-brother of Michoacán Governor Leonel Godoy, the PRD held an emergency conference of sorts in Morelia where the party closed ranks behind the governor. In what was named the Declaración de Michoacán, much of the top PRD leadership from all camps in the party in seven points reiterated its support for the fight against organized crime, regardless of the party colors and, pointedly, family ties of those involved. At the same time, the party strongly backed Leonel Godoy, and again called for the federal government to "rethink the strategy" in its war on the drug gangs.
Notably, Michoacán was recently deemed by Mexico´s national human rights commission (Comisión Nacional de los Derechos Humanos, CNDH) to be the most insecure entity in the country, given the level of complaints filed with the CNDH: 265 (vs. 240 in Chihuahua), of which 130 against the defense ministry, 107 against the Federal police, and 21 against the attorney general´s office, mainly on issues such as illegal searches and cruel treatment of citizens.
I do not wish for a moment to downplay the possible human rights violations taking place in Michoacán, but there seems to me to be a bit of a dubious methodology in place here: The more complaints = more human rights violations.For onem the high number of complaints may merely reflect a more active civil society or, less benignly, a more organized campaign by La Familia to push citizens to lodge such complaints. After all, the group has organized plenty of "demonstrations" against the presence of the military and the federal police. Also, as La Jornada reports, many of the complaints were also lodged against entities such as IMSS and ISSTE. Yet most obvious of all: A claim that Michoacán is worse than Chihuahuha in terms of human rights violations should strike even the most casual observer of Mexico as utterly absurd. It is perhaps quite understandable that the PRD, through its Secretary General Hortensia Aragón, would recently warn against an "ambush" by the federal government against Michoacàn, a state where President Felipe Calderón, lest we forget, hopes to see his sister Luisa María elected governor in 2011.
Notably, Michoacán was recently deemed by Mexico´s national human rights commission (Comisión Nacional de los Derechos Humanos, CNDH) to be the most insecure entity in the country, given the level of complaints filed with the CNDH: 265 (vs. 240 in Chihuahua), of which 130 against the defense ministry, 107 against the Federal police, and 21 against the attorney general´s office, mainly on issues such as illegal searches and cruel treatment of citizens.
I do not wish for a moment to downplay the possible human rights violations taking place in Michoacán, but there seems to me to be a bit of a dubious methodology in place here: The more complaints = more human rights violations.For onem the high number of complaints may merely reflect a more active civil society or, less benignly, a more organized campaign by La Familia to push citizens to lodge such complaints. After all, the group has organized plenty of "demonstrations" against the presence of the military and the federal police. Also, as La Jornada reports, many of the complaints were also lodged against entities such as IMSS and ISSTE. Yet most obvious of all: A claim that Michoacán is worse than Chihuahuha in terms of human rights violations should strike even the most casual observer of Mexico as utterly absurd. It is perhaps quite understandable that the PRD, through its Secretary General Hortensia Aragón, would recently warn against an "ambush" by the federal government against Michoacàn, a state where President Felipe Calderón, lest we forget, hopes to see his sister Luisa María elected governor in 2011.
Michoacán, 2010
First things first: Many thanks for the kind greetings for my wedding. Despite highly aggressive attacks carried out by La Familia Michoacana - they burned buses, cars, and gas stations in order to block every exit from Morelia just days before our big day - things passed very smoothly, and we've spent the past weeks in Michoacàn, as well as a bi/centennial road trip to Zacatecas (the most famous battle of the Revolution, Pancho Villa's June 23, 1914 toma de Zacatecas), Aguascalientes (site of Teatro Morelos, where the famous Convención de Aguascalientes took place Oct-Nov 1914, which we were lucky to get to see despite it being usually closed to visitors), Dolores de Hidalgo (where it all began with the Grito de Dolores on Sept. 16 2010), as well as San Miguel de Allende, birthplace of the Ignacio Allende, who in revisionist accounts appear a far more important organizer and implementor of the 1810 than the honorable Hidalgo. A fantastic trip, though traveling on Michoacán car plates warranted a bit too many uncomfortable stares.
(On a side note: Regarding traveling in Mexico, Malcolm Beith has an excellent post to which I wholeheartedly concur, and I take the liberty to emphasize two points: Avoid the carretera libre as much as you can, and do not drive at night: After spending three weeks here, the main change from my last visit this summer is that now everyone, from family to neighbors to friends, seem to have a story to tell of highway robberies at night, even on the autopista de cuota, so this is one thing I have definitely avoided)
Be that as it may: On the last day of 2010 and the 2000s, I wish everyone the very best for the new year, with hopes that the next decade will be far better than the one we are leaving behind. Thank you very much for reading.
(On a side note: Regarding traveling in Mexico, Malcolm Beith has an excellent post to which I wholeheartedly concur, and I take the liberty to emphasize two points: Avoid the carretera libre as much as you can, and do not drive at night: After spending three weeks here, the main change from my last visit this summer is that now everyone, from family to neighbors to friends, seem to have a story to tell of highway robberies at night, even on the autopista de cuota, so this is one thing I have definitely avoided)
Be that as it may: On the last day of 2010 and the 2000s, I wish everyone the very best for the new year, with hopes that the next decade will be far better than the one we are leaving behind. Thank you very much for reading.
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