Friday, December 31, 2010

2011: What is to come

An excellent overview of the political relation of forces in Mexico, as well as the upcoming electoral calendar can be found here.

As 2010 comes to a close, it is worth noting that the PRI now controls 19 of Mexico's 32 federal entities. With these states - and using the state as the entity for measurement -  the old ruling party governs 59 percent of Mexico's population; the PRD governs 20 percent; and the PAN 18 percent. It is also notable that the PRD and PAN, thanks to their unprecedented state-level coalitions to wrest power from the PRI in states that had never been governed by an opposition party (82 years of hegemony), wrested control from the PRI of 11 percent of Mexico's population - thanks to its gubernatorial victories in Oaxaca, Puebla, and Sinaloa.

2011 will see gubernatorial elections in Baja California Sur, Coahuila, Mexico State, Guerrero, Michoacán and Nayarit. The PRD leadership is seeking further state coalitions with PAN in Coahuila, Nayarit and, to be sure, Mexico State, all of which are adamantly opposed by AMLO. Given his rejection of the PRD leadership as "traitors" and active campaigning against the coalitions, will AMLO succeed in sabotaging them in 2011?

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