Ahead of what will likely be a final vote on Sunday, the three official candidates to be PRD's new president are Jesús Zambrano Grijalva, Dolores Padierna Luna, and Armando Ríos Piter.
The two latter stand very little chance: While nominally backed by most of the "G-8" or eight factions opposed to the social-democratic line of Jésus Ortega in favor of a populist movement-party tied to former presidential candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the only faction with serious weight in G-8 is IDN, which represents the clientlistic social movement organizations organized and captured by René Bejerano since the 1985 earthquake. The other 7 barely have any representation, with partial exception of IS, Izquierda Social, whose powerbase remains the secretariat for social development of Mexico City, although the secretary, Martí Batres, has seem many of his powers stripped away in recent months.
In any event, Padierna remains quite indigestible to the majority of party, and IDN members have admitted they know she stands very little chance of winning the presidency, and as such is aiming for the secretary general. According to PRD rules, this election - which thankfully will be decided by the National Council instead of an open mass member ballot, a practice that with no exception has ended in disaster - will allow the secretary general to the runner-up; the winner, in any regard, is stipulated to need 2/3 of the council's voted.
Barring a new and "surprise" candidacy, Jésus Zambrano therefore appears the likely new president, with Padierna as secretary general. Ahead of the weekend's council meeting, Zambrano declared his candidacy. It had long been increasingly clear that it would be Zambrano, a former guerrillero who nonetheless joined the institutional social-democratic Ortega win - and pretty much clinched with the PRD's remarkable comeback in Guerrero, where Zambrano was campain manager.
Armando Ríos Píter, a "compromise candidate" presented by Marcelo Ebrard, is also in the running, though and unlikely candidate has he has no weight in or even knowledge of the party - not an orgánico by any means - and has been in an out of PAN and PRI before he came late to the PRD.
A note on Ebrard: While he has presented his own alternative, Ríos Piter, he has also made it clear that he "doesn't decide" who will lead the PRD. What a difference from AMLO, who as mayor of Mexico City demanded and received an almost complete control of the party, trumping through his pliant (and now ex-PRD) choice Leonel Cota as president. One may regard this a sign of Ebrard's lack of full backing by the PRD; a far more benevolent interpretation is that he is simply far more respectful of the autonomy the party than AMLO ever was - or remain, for that matter.
Regarding the vote over new president, one warning was launched by Senator Carlos Navarrete: If the groups can't come to any agreement, there will be no election and Ortega will continue as president until November. A few late-coming alternatives might be Hortensia Aragón of Foro Nuevo Sol, Juan Guerra from Alternativa Democrática Nacional, Martha Dalia Gastélum from Izquierda Renovadora en Movimiento, and Alfonso Sánchez Anaya. The three former have all backed Ortega in the past; Anaya is a former governor of Tlaxcala regarded as closer to AMLO and opponent of Ortega; he bailed from PRI to join PRD in 1998.
It is still not out of the question, however, that Ortega and Ebrard, who are allies, can muster a 2/3 majority in favor of a Zambrano-Ríos Piter slate. This will cause some serious trouble with the "G-8."
Comments from IDN spokesman Alejandro Sánchez Camacho are quite typical: He warned against "majoritarianism" and that "many will leave," unless IDN are given at least the secretary general. However, should Ortega and Ebrard manage to come up with the required 2/3, one compromise might be Zambrano-Martha Dalia Gastélum, also close to Ebrard, or Zambrano-Jésus Valencia of the Mexico State PRD. I found it doubtful that IDN would leave the party, though several of the small G-8 factions very well might. Given the utter unwillingness of many of these to accept losing votes, a negotiated exit may hurt the PRD in the short run, but strengthen it in the long run.
In any event, if any doubt remained on the modus operandi of the AMLO-aligned groups within the PRD, Dolores Padierna declared, "Si no ganamos a la buena estamos preparados para ganar a la mala."
Few would expect otherwise.
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