The results are in from the Examen Nacional de Conocimientos, Habilidades y Competencias Docentes, or the obligatory exam for those aspiring to teach at Mexico's schools.
The results are just as bad as in earlier years: 70 percent failed, meaning 94,0400 of 134,704 exam takers did not even get half the questions of the exam right, which was the barrier to fail.
Yet the results will have absolutely no impact on whether they will be offered a teaching job or not.
And lest there remain any confusion: Just because Mexico's teacher aspirants have to take an entry exam, this does not mean they will ever need to take any other exams in their lifetime to prove they actually know any or all of the material they are educating Mexico's youth on.
Source:
Reprueban aspirantes a maestros. El Universal, July 23, 2012.
Tuesday, July 24, 2012
Tuesday, July 17, 2012
Great reportage on Mexico
Some great recent reportage on Mexico from U.S. journalists. The Los Angeles Times' Tracy Wilkinson:
From The Washington Post's William Booth:
The state of Mexico, which surrounds Mexico City on three sides, has seen an "alarming" surge in the number of murders and rapes of women, according to several human rights organizations. Much of that increase occurred during the governorship of Enrique Peña Nieto, whose six-year term ended last fall before he went on to win this month's presidential election.In Mexico state, violence against women has surged. Los Angeles Times, July 17, 2012.
From The Washington Post's William Booth:
Among the freshman class in the new Congress will be both the grandson and daughter of the second most powerful person in Mexico, Elba Esther Gordillo, the “president for life” of Mexico’s teachers union, who presides over a public education system where teachers buy and sell their jobs and student tests put Mexico’s kids at the bottom of developed nations.Mexico’s Congress presents the ‘unpresentable ones’. The Washington Post, July 14, 2012.
Calderón blocks victims law in about turn
Calderón continues to draw ire with his erratic actions or backtracking on earlier promise. Recently he sent back to the Senate the Ley General de Víctimas, or the Victims' Law, which aims to aid and compensate the victims of violence in the drug war, including creating a national register of victims, instead of signing it into law. It was in practice a veto.
Even PAN senators rejected Calderón's "observations," to the law, and returned it right away without even bothering to look at these, arguing that these added notes came too late and that it is instead Calderón's constitutional responsibility to publish it and thus enact it immediately. Unless he does so, the only remaining choice is to take it to the Supreme Court, which would in any case postpone the law for many months.
Javier Sicilia, whose victims' movement was the main impulsor of the law, called Calderón "blind" and someone who went from "betrayal to betrayal" for reneging on a much-publicized promise to back the law in a public meeting with Sicilia.
Yet Calderón seems incapable of standing down or taking absolutely any criticism for any of his actions. As El Universal put it, Calderón recently said of his administration, "'there have been achievements and mistakes,' without mentioning any in particular."
With few months remaining of his term, Calderón seems increasingly to turn a deaf ear to criticism, even from his own party. Who's a "danger to Mexico" now?
Source:
Se recrudece pugna por Ley de Víctimas; rechazan revisión. Animal Político, July 12, 2012.
Calderón está ciego, va de traición en traición: Sicilia. La Jornada, July 13, 2012.
Even PAN senators rejected Calderón's "observations," to the law, and returned it right away without even bothering to look at these, arguing that these added notes came too late and that it is instead Calderón's constitutional responsibility to publish it and thus enact it immediately. Unless he does so, the only remaining choice is to take it to the Supreme Court, which would in any case postpone the law for many months.
Javier Sicilia, whose victims' movement was the main impulsor of the law, called Calderón "blind" and someone who went from "betrayal to betrayal" for reneging on a much-publicized promise to back the law in a public meeting with Sicilia.
Yet Calderón seems incapable of standing down or taking absolutely any criticism for any of his actions. As El Universal put it, Calderón recently said of his administration, "'there have been achievements and mistakes,' without mentioning any in particular."
With few months remaining of his term, Calderón seems increasingly to turn a deaf ear to criticism, even from his own party. Who's a "danger to Mexico" now?
Source:
Se recrudece pugna por Ley de Víctimas; rechazan revisión. Animal Político, July 12, 2012.
Calderón está ciego, va de traición en traición: Sicilia. La Jornada, July 13, 2012.
Monday, July 16, 2012
Pedophile Pol Pot-esque cult psychopaths
It's hard to find the words to describe the madness happening in Nueva Jerusalén in Michoacán.
An absolutely nutty cult has taken control of the village of 2,500 inhabitants, and bans music and cars and anything at all relating to modernity, and most recently destroyed a school - there is no opting out. The cult behind "bishop" Martín de Tours and the "clairvoyant" Rosa Gómez Gómez has maltreated and even murdered anyone daring to question their insane doctrines and rule, or to denounce the pedophile "priests" abusing the children of the village.
It's utterly amazing that the PRI government of Michoacán has not acted to throw these sadists and psychopaths in jail, and it is truly shameful.
Read more about it in today's La Jornada.
Source:
En Nueva Jerusalén, si no cumplen los mandatos el castigo puede ser la muerte. La Jornada, July 16, 2012.
An absolutely nutty cult has taken control of the village of 2,500 inhabitants, and bans music and cars and anything at all relating to modernity, and most recently destroyed a school - there is no opting out. The cult behind "bishop" Martín de Tours and the "clairvoyant" Rosa Gómez Gómez has maltreated and even murdered anyone daring to question their insane doctrines and rule, or to denounce the pedophile "priests" abusing the children of the village.
It's utterly amazing that the PRI government of Michoacán has not acted to throw these sadists and psychopaths in jail, and it is truly shameful.
Read more about it in today's La Jornada.
Source:
En Nueva Jerusalén, si no cumplen los mandatos el castigo puede ser la muerte. La Jornada, July 16, 2012.
Ataques sexuales, veto a la educación y asesinatos, en la historia de la localidad. La Jornada, July 16, 2012.
Sunday, July 15, 2012
El País to Mexico's left: Drop AMLO
An editorial in Spain's El País offers a straightforward recommendation to Mexico's left:
Source:
Obrador es un lastre. El País, July 15, 2012.
The Mexican left has been failing since 1988 in its attempt to win the presidency. Lópese Obrador's brethrhen the time seems to have come to ask whether they should follow a twice-defeated leader prone to conspiratorial victimhood, and whose abrasive and stagnant style has alienated a part of its natural vote. Obrador is a drag.
Source:
Obrador es un lastre. El País, July 15, 2012.
Saturday, July 14, 2012
Calderón ignores Senate, signs ACTA
Just a few days ago, the European Union rejected the Anti-Counterfeiting Trade Agreement (Acta): Its parliament voted a massive 478-39 against what is being presented as an anti-piracy initiative but that risks seriously stifling freedom on the Web.
In Mexico, president Calderón made no indications at all he intended to sign ACTA, and the Mexican Senate in any case unanimously advised him against it and to consult it, especially given the massive rejection in the European Union, as it arguably goes against Mexico's constitution
But no: Calderón decided to sign the agreement anyway. The Senate is very upset, and rightly so: The president has from the beginning kept Congress in the dark, not even bothering to inform it that he had started the ACTA negotiations in the first place. He just happened to as well keep mum of his intentions to do so until after the election, given the unpopularity of the legislation.
Beyond being classically Calderón - an absolute tone-deafness to any criticism and utter unwillingness to accept any mistake - a larger question is: With all of Mexico's current woes, is really promoting anti-pirate legislation pushed by U.S. media companies truly the best way to spend the last months of a truly mediocre presidency?
Source:
Ola de críticas contra Calderón por suscribir en lo oscurito el ACTA. La Jornada, July 13, 2012
Es un ataque a la libertad de expresión y un freno a la movilización social. La Jornada, July 13, 2012
In Mexico, president Calderón made no indications at all he intended to sign ACTA, and the Mexican Senate in any case unanimously advised him against it and to consult it, especially given the massive rejection in the European Union, as it arguably goes against Mexico's constitution
But no: Calderón decided to sign the agreement anyway. The Senate is very upset, and rightly so: The president has from the beginning kept Congress in the dark, not even bothering to inform it that he had started the ACTA negotiations in the first place. He just happened to as well keep mum of his intentions to do so until after the election, given the unpopularity of the legislation.
Beyond being classically Calderón - an absolute tone-deafness to any criticism and utter unwillingness to accept any mistake - a larger question is: With all of Mexico's current woes, is really promoting anti-pirate legislation pushed by U.S. media companies truly the best way to spend the last months of a truly mediocre presidency?
Source:
Ola de críticas contra Calderón por suscribir en lo oscurito el ACTA. La Jornada, July 13, 2012
Es un ataque a la libertad de expresión y un freno a la movilización social. La Jornada, July 13, 2012
NYT profiles Alejandro Solalinde
Kudos to The New York Times and Elisabeth Malkin for this profile of Oaxaca migrant defender Alejandro Solalinde:
A Priest Stands Up for the Migrants Who Run Mexico’s Gantlet. The New York Times, July 13, 2012.
He returned this week to his beloved state of Oaxaca, where he runs a shelter in Ciudad Ixtepec, a sweltering railroad town where migrants wait to scramble atop cargo trains that will take them on the next leg of their wearying trip to the United States.More migrants will be arriving, he said, pushed by poverty and violence at home. A long-suspended train service directly from the Guatemalan border is being renewed. “That means the merchandise is coming, the captive customers,” Father Solalinde said.He expected the threats to continue as well. For the criminals, he said, “there is a problem: Father Solalinde is in the way; he won’t let us do our work comfortably so we have to pressure him, threaten him, kill him so he won’t disturb us.”Source:
A Priest Stands Up for the Migrants Who Run Mexico’s Gantlet. The New York Times, July 13, 2012.
Friday, July 13, 2012
Solalinde's back, with bodyguards
Father Alejandro Solalinde Guerra, target of much intimidation and death threats due to his work in Oaxaca for migrants, above all in his shelter "Hemanos en el Camino," returned recently to Mexico after credible and concrete plans of his assassination were revealed.
The federal PGR announced he will from now on have four bodyguards.
Solalinde notably called on the church he belongs to - the Catholic Church - to assume a more active role in defense of migrants. If only the church had more men like Solalinde, and less thugs like Juan Sandoval Iñiguez and Noberto Rivera.
He also came out against all of Mexico's parties, for their lack of any proposals on migration, though he noted that "the worst of them all, it is clear to me, comes from the PRI: It doesn't have any." Make sure to read his interview with Animal Político here.
Source:
Solalinde contará con cuatro escoltas. El Universal, July 11, 2012
La propuesta más pobre en migración es la del PRI: Solalinde. Animal Político, July 11, 2012
Regresa hoy Solalinde a Ixtepec, sin más seguridad, pero con mucho entusiasmo. La Jornada, July 11, 2012
The federal PGR announced he will from now on have four bodyguards.
Solalinde notably called on the church he belongs to - the Catholic Church - to assume a more active role in defense of migrants. If only the church had more men like Solalinde, and less thugs like Juan Sandoval Iñiguez and Noberto Rivera.
He also came out against all of Mexico's parties, for their lack of any proposals on migration, though he noted that "the worst of them all, it is clear to me, comes from the PRI: It doesn't have any." Make sure to read his interview with Animal Político here.
Source:
Solalinde contará con cuatro escoltas. El Universal, July 11, 2012
La propuesta más pobre en migración es la del PRI: Solalinde. Animal Político, July 11, 2012
Regresa hoy Solalinde a Ixtepec, sin más seguridad, pero con mucho entusiasmo. La Jornada, July 11, 2012
Wednesday, July 11, 2012
Ebrard: His 2018 campaign starts this Dec. 6
Marcelo Ebrard said that his campaign for the presidency in 2018 will start on Dec. 6, 2012, the day after he steps down as mayor of Mexico City. Presidential campaigns, he noted, now tend to start six years in advance.
No cigar for guessing who taught him that.
Source:
Anuncia Ebrard próximo arranque de su campaña presidencial. Proceso Online, July 10, 2012.
No cigar for guessing who taught him that.
Source:
Anuncia Ebrard próximo arranque de su campaña presidencial. Proceso Online, July 10, 2012.
Mexico 2012-5 Congress count complete, no PRI majority
The final count by IFE confirmed that PRI will not have a majority in either of the two houses of Mexico's congress, even with backing of the PVEM, it's electoral ally since 2000:
For the Senate:
PRI: 51
PAN: 38
PRD: 22
PVEM: 9
PT: 4
MC: 2
PANAL: 1
Source:
Congreso no tendrá mayorías. El Universal, July 10, 2012.
Atlas Electoral. Eluniversal.com.mx.
For the Chamber (500 in total, 300/200)
PRI: 207 deputies (157 Single-member districts and 50 proportional representation).
PVEM: 33 (19 SMD and 14 PR)
PAN: 114 (52 SMD, 50 PR)
PRD: 101 (57 SMD, 44 PR)
PT: 19
MC: 16
For the Senate:
PRI: 51
PAN: 38
PRD: 22
PVEM: 9
PT: 4
MC: 2
PANAL: 1
Source:
Congreso no tendrá mayorías. El Universal, July 10, 2012.
Atlas Electoral. Eluniversal.com.mx.
Tuesday, July 10, 2012
How Calderón destroyed PAN
A very recommended read from sinembargo.mx and Alejandro Páez Varela on the stunning collapse of PAN on Calderón's watch, playfully entitled "It's Calderón, stupid."
He reminds us what he did:
Source:
Alejandro Páez Varela: Es Calderón, estúpidos. Sinembargo.mx, July 9, 2012.
He reminds us what he did:
Fue Felipe Calderón el que hizo funcionarios de primer nivel del PAN a dos incondicionales que son una bofetada para la mayoría de los ciudadanos: Juan Molinar Horcasitas y Cecilia Romero...In short, Calderón, in complete control of PAN with his wife Margarita Zavala since 2006, bear the brunt of blame for PAN's destruction. Don't expect Calderón to express even the slightest hint of self-criticism: He has not once did this since July 2, 2006 - why start now?
Fue Felipe Calderón el que dio larga vida a Elba Esther Gordillo (y a otros líderes sindicales corruptos) y le permitió transitar sin dificultad hasta un siguiente sexenio, en el que ha comprado, otra vez, impunida...
Fue Felipe Calderón el que dio larga vida a Elba Esther Gordillo (y a otros líderes sindicales corruptos) y le permitió transitar sin dificultad hasta un siguiente sexenio, en el que ha comprado, otra vez, impunida...
Fue Felipe Calderón el que convirtió en la voz del PAN a un golpeador repugnante como Javier Lozano; el que entregó a sus amigos de pachanga la imagen del país y del mismo partido; fue Calderón el que ordenó expulsar a las voces disidentes (en un partido fundado por el pensamiento disidente) y fue Calderón el que lo puso, en 2012, en manos de ineptos pero muy compadres.
Source:
Alejandro Páez Varela: Es Calderón, estúpidos. Sinembargo.mx, July 9, 2012.
Teleprompter interview? Fareed Zakaria and Peña Nieto
Fareed Zakaria on his GPS program interviewed Enrique Peña Nieto on his drug war strategy, and the virtual president-elect takes the oddest pauses in the middle of his arguments. I've seen plenty of simultaneous-translation interviews with Zakaria and none has looked like this one.
See the interview on YouTube (after 0.59 secs) at
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=VQWrWXN0A5g#
Source: Genera polémica en redes sociales la entrevista de EPN con CNN. Proceso Online, July 9, 2012.
See the interview on YouTube (after 0.59 secs) at
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=VQWrWXN0A5g#
Source: Genera polémica en redes sociales la entrevista de EPN con CNN. Proceso Online, July 9, 2012.
Monday, July 9, 2012
Even PAN does not rule out election annulment
New and unexpected tones from Gustavo Madero:
Source:
“Legitimidad no le alcanza” a Peña Nieto, dice Gustavo Madero. Proceso Online, July 8, 2012.
“Los cuestionamientos que surgen en torno a esta elección son muchos.” Milenio, July 8, 2012.
la legitimidad no le alcanza... Los cuestionamientos que surgen en torno a esta elección son muchosThe PAN leader did not say that the evidence PRD and PAN has gathered is enough to demand the 2012 election's annulment, but pointedly did not rule it out. This marks a rather sharp turn away from PAN's immediate reaction to lament irregularities, but then essentially signal it would accept the results regardless.
Source:
“Legitimidad no le alcanza” a Peña Nieto, dice Gustavo Madero. Proceso Online, July 8, 2012.
“Los cuestionamientos que surgen en torno a esta elección son muchos.” Milenio, July 8, 2012.
Sunday, July 8, 2012
Castro follows tradition by congratulating Enrique Peña Nieto
Cuban dictator Raúl Castro follows in the tradition - and office - he inherited from brother Fidel:
After the 1988 election, despite widespread and well-documented fraud accusations, Carlos Salinas received congratulatory calls from a few leaders who didn't want to bother awaiting the official certification of the election (after any and all complaints have been dealt with): From Ronald Reagan, and from Cuba's Fidel Castro.
Now, Enrique Peña Nieto has received quite a few more, even though AMLO has announced he will impugn the election, and PRI's victorywill then not be official - and Enrique Peña Nieto the president-elect - until early September. Among the first calls he received was from Barack Obama - and Raúl Castro.
After the 1988 election, despite widespread and well-documented fraud accusations, Carlos Salinas received congratulatory calls from a few leaders who didn't want to bother awaiting the official certification of the election (after any and all complaints have been dealt with): From Ronald Reagan, and from Cuba's Fidel Castro.
Now, Enrique Peña Nieto has received quite a few more, even though AMLO has announced he will impugn the election, and PRI's victorywill then not be official - and Enrique Peña Nieto the president-elect - until early September. Among the first calls he received was from Barack Obama - and Raúl Castro.
Source:
Mandatarios felicitan a Peña Nieto. El Universal, July 7, 2012.
Mandatarios felicitan a Peña Nieto. El Universal, July 7, 2012.
Trotsky's grandson
Esteban Volkov, Trotsky's grandson and the only living witness to his murder, is 86 years old and still going strong. A recent interview with Volkov in El País, is well worth reading, and not just for the fascinating personal context: There's also a note on current politics:
(I also just happened to get hold of Salazar's "Murder in Mexico" and Dugrand's "Trotsky in Mexico," from an Irish bookstore of all places - great summer reading!)
Source: Esteban Volkov, nieto de León Trotski: “Sin memoria no hay futuro”. El País, July 8, 2012.
Volkov likes to be informed, read newspapers and surf the Internet. He applauds the indignados movement, "a raising of the youth's awareness about an archaic system."
(I also just happened to get hold of Salazar's "Murder in Mexico" and Dugrand's "Trotsky in Mexico," from an Irish bookstore of all places - great summer reading!)
Source: Esteban Volkov, nieto de León Trotski: “Sin memoria no hay futuro”. El País, July 8, 2012.
PRI mayor's brother murders PRD councilman in Nuevo León
The dead body of Tomás Betancourt Gaytán was found with a clean PRI t-shirt on it.
Betancourt was a councilor in the Nuevo León town of Benito Juárez. He was coordinator of AMLO's MORENA electoral movement in the city, and right before the elections received a visit by four men who beat him up and kidnapped him. He was found dead two days later, two bullets in his head and two in his chest - but with a squeaky clean PRI shirt on him.
The man signaled as behind the murder is Mauro García Garza, a former police and brother of Luis Alfredo García Garza, who is currently the PRI mayor of Benito Juárez. He is now a fugitive.
Source:
Ligan a hermano de alcalde en NL con asesinato de regidor del PRD. La Jornada, July 7, 2012.
Betancourt was a councilor in the Nuevo León town of Benito Juárez. He was coordinator of AMLO's MORENA electoral movement in the city, and right before the elections received a visit by four men who beat him up and kidnapped him. He was found dead two days later, two bullets in his head and two in his chest - but with a squeaky clean PRI shirt on him.
The man signaled as behind the murder is Mauro García Garza, a former police and brother of Luis Alfredo García Garza, who is currently the PRI mayor of Benito Juárez. He is now a fugitive.
Source:
Ligan a hermano de alcalde en NL con asesinato de regidor del PRD. La Jornada, July 7, 2012.
Saturday, July 7, 2012
Religious nuts destroy schools in Michoacán
Via Proceso, from Nueva Jerusalén in the state of Michoacán:
Source: Fanáticos religiosos destruyen escuelas en Michoacán. Proceso Online, July 6, 2012
Spurred by an alleged clairvoyant, teachers and religious fanatics of the New Jerusalem community began to demolish with sledgehammers, picks and shovels two schools - pre-school and primary education - which threatens to unleash a new conflict in this entity...Members of New Jerusalem believe that "schools are of the devil" and oppose secular education...Drinking, dating, and fun, is prohibited in the district, as well as voting for any other party than the PRI, and one also needs to say about 50 rosaries a day.
Source: Fanáticos religiosos destruyen escuelas en Michoacán. Proceso Online, July 6, 2012
Soriana vote buying reaches international media
Sorianagate (what else) won't go away, and AMLO et al are doing their part, appearing at a press conference in front of a wall plastered with many of the 3,500 Soriana cards the left coalition said it had received the past days:
Beyond the story itself, where PRI is accused of massive vote-buying through Soriana store gift cars, it is also very interesting to see the media reaction. Take Carlos Marín, a very sharp mind but possibly the most venous of Milenio's columnists - kind of like Jefe Diego of PAN - who completely ridiculed the story immediately after it broke.
Yet quite a few international news media - AP, The Washington Post, etc - and now even IFE has found the accusations serious enough to warrant an investigation and ask Soriana for more information. It makes me wonder: If this is how big-names like Marín are acting before EPN takes power, imagine how they will be after one sexenio. They say jump and you say how high.
CNN also reported on the very venerable Alianza Cívica, of fame as election observers during Mexico's democratic transition, which for this election found, against IFE's rather rose-tinted lenses, there were indeed many irregularities includingvote coercion. We'll see if AMLO's coalition can come up with something tangible for their complaint to the TEPJF electoral court, though I strongly doubt there is any risk of annulling the election.
In any case: Given that Mexicans have just about the best sense of political humor in the world, I couldn't help but to include this one:
Sources:
Carlos Marín: Lo de Soriana, otro cuento chino. Milenio, July 4, 2012.
Reports of gift card payments feed growing accusations of vote-buying in Mexico’s election. The Washington Post, July 4, 2012.
Accusations grow of vote-buying Mexico election. Associated Press, July 4, 2012.
Mexico's presidential election tainted by claims of vote buying. The Washington Post, July 5, 2012.
Pide IFE a Soriana datos de tarjetas - Nación - El Universal, July 5, 2012
Exponen 3500 tarjetas Soriana. El Universal, July 6, 2012.
 |
| El Universal |
Beyond the story itself, where PRI is accused of massive vote-buying through Soriana store gift cars, it is also very interesting to see the media reaction. Take Carlos Marín, a very sharp mind but possibly the most venous of Milenio's columnists - kind of like Jefe Diego of PAN - who completely ridiculed the story immediately after it broke.
Yet quite a few international news media - AP, The Washington Post, etc - and now even IFE has found the accusations serious enough to warrant an investigation and ask Soriana for more information. It makes me wonder: If this is how big-names like Marín are acting before EPN takes power, imagine how they will be after one sexenio. They say jump and you say how high.
CNN also reported on the very venerable Alianza Cívica, of fame as election observers during Mexico's democratic transition, which for this election found, against IFE's rather rose-tinted lenses, there were indeed many irregularities includingvote coercion. We'll see if AMLO's coalition can come up with something tangible for their complaint to the TEPJF electoral court, though I strongly doubt there is any risk of annulling the election.
In any case: Given that Mexicans have just about the best sense of political humor in the world, I couldn't help but to include this one:
Sources:
Carlos Marín: Lo de Soriana, otro cuento chino. Milenio, July 4, 2012.
Reports of gift card payments feed growing accusations of vote-buying in Mexico’s election. The Washington Post, July 4, 2012.
Accusations grow of vote-buying Mexico election. Associated Press, July 4, 2012.
Mexico's presidential election tainted by claims of vote buying. The Washington Post, July 5, 2012.
Pide IFE a Soriana datos de tarjetas - Nación - El Universal, July 5, 2012
Exponen 3500 tarjetas Soriana. El Universal, July 6, 2012.
Thursday, July 5, 2012
Pundits past their date? CSIS
From George W. Grayson:
The PRD piled up a landslide in the DF, flexed its muscles in gubernatorial matches in Tabasco and Morelos, and boasts two interesting competitors for the presidency in 2018: DF mayor-elect Miguel Ángel Mancera and his predecessor, senator-elect Marcelo Ebrard.
No, Ebrard is not senator elect - he was not even a candidate. This might seem snarky, but it is a pretty basic fact to get wrong, especially for a paid pundit. CSIS, time for some new wine in new bottles?
Source:
PRI Party Makes a Comeback in Mexico—Why and What's Next? CSIS Commentary, July 2, 2012.
The PRD piled up a landslide in the DF, flexed its muscles in gubernatorial matches in Tabasco and Morelos, and boasts two interesting competitors for the presidency in 2018: DF mayor-elect Miguel Ángel Mancera and his predecessor, senator-elect Marcelo Ebrard.
No, Ebrard is not senator elect - he was not even a candidate. This might seem snarky, but it is a pretty basic fact to get wrong, especially for a paid pundit. CSIS, time for some new wine in new bottles?
Source:
PRI Party Makes a Comeback in Mexico—Why and What's Next? CSIS Commentary, July 2, 2012.
Tuesday, July 3, 2012
Recount! IFE decision goes far beyond 2006
IFE said it will open around 50,000 - fifty thousand - casillas or ballot boxes, out of a total of 143,114.
While AMLO and his coalition is asking for a full recount now, this is still significant - more than a third of all boxes. Compare this to in 2006, when less than three thousand casillas, from what I recall, were opened.
Is IFE just trying to nip things in the bud, even if it risks making AMLO supporters vindicated?
Even so, AMLO's main complaints have been vote buying and media bias - which a recount, full or partial, will do nothing to substantiate.
Source:
'Voto por voto' en un tercio de la presidencial: IFE. El Universal Online, July 3, 2012.
While AMLO and his coalition is asking for a full recount now, this is still significant - more than a third of all boxes. Compare this to in 2006, when less than three thousand casillas, from what I recall, were opened.
Is IFE just trying to nip things in the bud, even if it risks making AMLO supporters vindicated?
Even so, AMLO's main complaints have been vote buying and media bias - which a recount, full or partial, will do nothing to substantiate.
Source:
'Voto por voto' en un tercio de la presidencial: IFE. El Universal Online, July 3, 2012.
Carlos Loret de Mola tells three lies
This is quite amazing: Carlos Loret de Mola, columnist of El Universal and a star of Televisa, manages to cram in three lies in just one tiny paragraph:
* He has not called the process fraudulent - he has not used the word at all
* He has not said that he won the election
* And lest we forget, the results that are in are not the official results - these will come after Mexico's 300 districts confirm (or not!) the tally sheets the PREP results were based on, starting tomorrow. Then, if they are confirmed and not enough irregularities were present, they will become official.
Any wonder that AMLO and his allies insist that the media is biased against them?
Yesterday, López Obrador called the Sunday July 1, 2012 process fraudulent, didn't accept the official results.. and said that he wonWhatever you think of AMLO's reluctance to accept Peña Nieto's likely win, this is a complete distortion of what AMLO has actually said:
* He has not called the process fraudulent - he has not used the word at all
* He has not said that he won the election
* And lest we forget, the results that are in are not the official results - these will come after Mexico's 300 districts confirm (or not!) the tally sheets the PREP results were based on, starting tomorrow. Then, if they are confirmed and not enough irregularities were present, they will become official.
Any wonder that AMLO and his allies insist that the media is biased against them?
The composition of Mexicos 2012-15 Congress
A very useful comparison from El Universal: How the Chamber will look from 2012-15, and the Senate from 2012-8, though quite likely there will be a few "switchers" in either house along the way: Link to high-definition pdf file here.
Source:
En el Congreso, el PRI está obligado a negociar. El Universal, July 3, 2012
Source:
En el Congreso, el PRI está obligado a negociar. El Universal, July 3, 2012
Mexico's election: The good news
And now for the good new (from the Mexican political left's point of view, that is)
* PRI will not have a majority in the Chamber of Deputies, as many believed.
* PRI will not have a majority in the Senate, as many believed.
Instead, PRD will be the second force in the former, and have a sizable contingent in the second.
* Tabasco will change government hands for the first time in its history: PRD's Arturo Núñez won the governorship.
* Morelos was won by the left for the first time in Mexico's history, with Graco Ramírez. The state is as far as I can recall now the second to have been run by all three parties (the other is Tlaxcala)
* PRI will not have a majority in the Chamber of Deputies, as many believed.
* PRI will not have a majority in the Senate, as many believed.
Instead, PRD will be the second force in the former, and have a sizable contingent in the second.
* Tabasco will change government hands for the first time in its history: PRD's Arturo Núñez won the governorship.
* Morelos was won by the left for the first time in Mexico's history, with Graco Ramírez. The state is as far as I can recall now the second to have been run by all three parties (the other is Tlaxcala)
* EPN's victory was far from impressive - barely 6% ahead of AMLO, who ran a terrific campaign - in 2009 he campaigned and identified for PT and MC, who won only 5-6% of the vote together. He truly did a remarkable recovery.
* PRD won more than 60 percent in DF - in a four-way race! This is far higher than Cárdenas in 1997, AMLO in 2000, and Ebrard in 2006. The left has clearly shown it can govern a highly complicated and major entity - and do so extremely well.
* The left will be back to being the second largest force in the Chamber of Deputies
* The results are a damning indictment of the political right in Mexico: It lost Jalisco after 18 terrible years of government, barely hung on to Guanajuato, and will be the third force in the Chamber. It was almost completely wiped out in Mexico City, where it lost at least one bastion and may even lose the remaining three.
Calderón will go down in history as the man who returned Los Pinos to PRI - it's a hefty verdict on his mediocre presidency, which saw millions more in poverty. And lest we forget, he was actively helped by the bumbling idiot who happened to end PRI's 71-year reign in the first place, Vicente Fox.
What stinging blows to the party and to the political right.
* PRD won more than 60 percent in DF - in a four-way race! This is far higher than Cárdenas in 1997, AMLO in 2000, and Ebrard in 2006. The left has clearly shown it can govern a highly complicated and major entity - and do so extremely well.
* The left will be back to being the second largest force in the Chamber of Deputies
* The results are a damning indictment of the political right in Mexico: It lost Jalisco after 18 terrible years of government, barely hung on to Guanajuato, and will be the third force in the Chamber. It was almost completely wiped out in Mexico City, where it lost at least one bastion and may even lose the remaining three.
Calderón will go down in history as the man who returned Los Pinos to PRI - it's a hefty verdict on his mediocre presidency, which saw millions more in poverty. And lest we forget, he was actively helped by the bumbling idiot who happened to end PRI's 71-year reign in the first place, Vicente Fox.
What stinging blows to the party and to the political right.
Sunday, July 1, 2012
Today's election - a few thoughts
If vote intention polls mean anything at all - they may not, but we'll know today - PRI will return to the presidency today, and possibly with a large majority in the Chamber of Deputies, and also the Senate.
I truly hope this will not happen.
Many may have read Jorge Castañeda's Don't fear a PRI win in Mexico, which essentially argues that even if PRI has not changed, Mexico's institutions will be able to withstand a return of the old regime.
I don't share the optimism. I truly fear for Mexico's democracy. I may well be wrong and I hope I am, but one doesn't have to look very deeply at Enrique Peña Nieto's trajectory to find a man who represents every one of PRI's vices in the past: Collusion with the media, steamrolling of the opposition, blatant institutional engineering (Ley Peña - why on earth has the media forgotten about this?), cover-up of corruption, mediocre social programs, clientelism, and lest we forget, outright authoritarianism. There is much more, but this is only from the past few years of his Mexico State government. The past days, more and more stuff is simply seeping to the surface.
This is a man who went to Oaxaca in 2010 to actively stump for a murderous repressor and scoundrel, Ulises Ruiz, when he tried to impose his PRI successor, and on whose campaign trail in Puebla had the pedophile-protecting Mario Marín appear at his campaign events.
The editors at The Economist, as expected, endorsed Peña Nieto. Their choice is logical - PAN's candidate is mediocre and represents more mediocrity for Mexico still, and there are serious and legitimate reservations over the democratic credentials of Andrés Manuel López Obrador. Yet it is not only about one man, Peña Nieto - and I hold him in a very low regard - but of a party as well, which has shown absolutely no indication it has changed. I don't think this is demagoguery; there are many good priístas just like there are good people in any party. But a party carries within it an imprint that it is very, very hard to rid itself of. And looking at how PRI and their thugs acted in the 2010 and 2011 state elections, I fear for Mexico's democracy should they return to executive powers, backed by legislative majorities. They won't be easily removed.
A few and rather random observations from the recent days of the campaign:
* A truly pathetic defense of "spoil-the-vote," which will of course benefit the front runner and is not a "neutral" choice - it takes no responsibility for the results either - from Carlos Loret de Mola, can be read here. Read it for the vacuity of its arguments.
* A very tight and well-written argument against spoiling your vote from Jorge Zepeda Patterson here.
* One of the best columns I've read from Joaquín López-Dóriga here. Yes, this is a system man who turns his cape with the wind, but here he makes an excellent argument for truly making a "useful" vote today: Do not vote for the "franchise parties," those tiny ones who care nothing of ideology or programs but only exist to further the business or personal interests of a personality or a family. They are: The PVEM "Green" party, the PANAL of Gordillo, the North Korea-praising PT of Anaya, and the party set up by Delgado to return the ex-priísta to the governorship of Veracruz, Movimiento Ciudadano. This time voters will have a choice: If you want Peña Nieto, you can vote for PRI or PVEM for the legislative list; if you want AMLO you can vote for PRD, PT, or MC. I think his arguments are convincing: Vote for whomever you want, but don't give a vote to the smaller parties.
* Another thing I've really found notable is the bias of newspapers ahead of the election. I used to like Milenio, and enjoy their free Web TV coverage, but the bias toward EPN has been absurd, and in many cases sickly groveling, such as from Carlos Mota. I've essentially stopped reading most of their columnists, who have truly bent over backwards and forwards to praise PRI and badmouth the left, and even their gossip column Transcendió has turned into a propaganda effort. Ya basta - no more Milenio for me.
* El Universal's coverage, as IFE has confirmed, was equitable and excellent. It was always my paper of choice, and has remained so (note: major exception with Ricardo Alemán, who has unfortunately returned as columnist). Reforma is excellent as well, though annoyingly pro-PAN and anti-left, though they make far from a pretense over it, as does Milenio. La Jornada covers many stories others leave out and remains very valuable, but it is so pro AMLO biased (including against his opponents of the left) that its political coverage is often really useless - confusing editorializing for journalism far too often. And enough of the goddamn Castro praising, please.
As for the election, UNAM says the PREP, which shows the results as they are posted from the 431370 boxes - president, senators, deputies - at the voting stations (though these figures have no legal status, as some stations results may be questioned), has been ready for days and will not fail.
IFE says they're ready - and that we will know the results of a "quick count," which is actually a statistical sample, at 23:45 Mexico City time, or 00:45am EST, or 6:45am where I am these days. It'll be a long night. IFE is also very optimistic on the organization, and note that 99.3 percent of ballot boxes have three or more party representatives registered. I doubt this figure will hold, but it bodes well. All I can hope for, next to an elevated vote gain for the left, is that the elections will not be violent.
I predict I will win a bottle of tequila, the likely result of a bet I made at the LASA 2012 conference with a Mexican academic, as I argued Peña Nieto will come first, with AMLO second and PAN third.
I'd be very glad to lose that bet tonight.
Sources:
No al voto nulo. El Universal, June 17, 2012.
Don't fear a PRI win in Mexico. Los Angeles Times, June 22, 2012.
Back to the future. The Economist, June 23, 2012.
El instituto se dice listo para difundir un conteo rápido la noche del domingo. La Jornada, June 25, 2012.
¿Cómo voy a votar? - Opinion - El Universal. El Universal, June 26, 2012.
El verdadero voto útil. Milenio, June 26, 2012.
Mexican media scandal: secretive Televisa unit promoted PRI candidate. The Guardian, June 26, 2012.
El IFE reconoce equidad informativa en contienda. El Universal, June 30, 2012.
El PREP, listo para elección, avala UNAM. El Universal, June 27, 2012.
I truly hope this will not happen.
Many may have read Jorge Castañeda's Don't fear a PRI win in Mexico, which essentially argues that even if PRI has not changed, Mexico's institutions will be able to withstand a return of the old regime.
I don't share the optimism. I truly fear for Mexico's democracy. I may well be wrong and I hope I am, but one doesn't have to look very deeply at Enrique Peña Nieto's trajectory to find a man who represents every one of PRI's vices in the past: Collusion with the media, steamrolling of the opposition, blatant institutional engineering (Ley Peña - why on earth has the media forgotten about this?), cover-up of corruption, mediocre social programs, clientelism, and lest we forget, outright authoritarianism. There is much more, but this is only from the past few years of his Mexico State government. The past days, more and more stuff is simply seeping to the surface.
This is a man who went to Oaxaca in 2010 to actively stump for a murderous repressor and scoundrel, Ulises Ruiz, when he tried to impose his PRI successor, and on whose campaign trail in Puebla had the pedophile-protecting Mario Marín appear at his campaign events.
The editors at The Economist, as expected, endorsed Peña Nieto. Their choice is logical - PAN's candidate is mediocre and represents more mediocrity for Mexico still, and there are serious and legitimate reservations over the democratic credentials of Andrés Manuel López Obrador. Yet it is not only about one man, Peña Nieto - and I hold him in a very low regard - but of a party as well, which has shown absolutely no indication it has changed. I don't think this is demagoguery; there are many good priístas just like there are good people in any party. But a party carries within it an imprint that it is very, very hard to rid itself of. And looking at how PRI and their thugs acted in the 2010 and 2011 state elections, I fear for Mexico's democracy should they return to executive powers, backed by legislative majorities. They won't be easily removed.
A few and rather random observations from the recent days of the campaign:
* A truly pathetic defense of "spoil-the-vote," which will of course benefit the front runner and is not a "neutral" choice - it takes no responsibility for the results either - from Carlos Loret de Mola, can be read here. Read it for the vacuity of its arguments.
* A very tight and well-written argument against spoiling your vote from Jorge Zepeda Patterson here.
* One of the best columns I've read from Joaquín López-Dóriga here. Yes, this is a system man who turns his cape with the wind, but here he makes an excellent argument for truly making a "useful" vote today: Do not vote for the "franchise parties," those tiny ones who care nothing of ideology or programs but only exist to further the business or personal interests of a personality or a family. They are: The PVEM "Green" party, the PANAL of Gordillo, the North Korea-praising PT of Anaya, and the party set up by Delgado to return the ex-priísta to the governorship of Veracruz, Movimiento Ciudadano. This time voters will have a choice: If you want Peña Nieto, you can vote for PRI or PVEM for the legislative list; if you want AMLO you can vote for PRD, PT, or MC. I think his arguments are convincing: Vote for whomever you want, but don't give a vote to the smaller parties.
* Another thing I've really found notable is the bias of newspapers ahead of the election. I used to like Milenio, and enjoy their free Web TV coverage, but the bias toward EPN has been absurd, and in many cases sickly groveling, such as from Carlos Mota. I've essentially stopped reading most of their columnists, who have truly bent over backwards and forwards to praise PRI and badmouth the left, and even their gossip column Transcendió has turned into a propaganda effort. Ya basta - no more Milenio for me.
* El Universal's coverage, as IFE has confirmed, was equitable and excellent. It was always my paper of choice, and has remained so (note: major exception with Ricardo Alemán, who has unfortunately returned as columnist). Reforma is excellent as well, though annoyingly pro-PAN and anti-left, though they make far from a pretense over it, as does Milenio. La Jornada covers many stories others leave out and remains very valuable, but it is so pro AMLO biased (including against his opponents of the left) that its political coverage is often really useless - confusing editorializing for journalism far too often. And enough of the goddamn Castro praising, please.
As for the election, UNAM says the PREP, which shows the results as they are posted from the 431370 boxes - president, senators, deputies - at the voting stations (though these figures have no legal status, as some stations results may be questioned), has been ready for days and will not fail.
IFE says they're ready - and that we will know the results of a "quick count," which is actually a statistical sample, at 23:45 Mexico City time, or 00:45am EST, or 6:45am where I am these days. It'll be a long night. IFE is also very optimistic on the organization, and note that 99.3 percent of ballot boxes have three or more party representatives registered. I doubt this figure will hold, but it bodes well. All I can hope for, next to an elevated vote gain for the left, is that the elections will not be violent.
I predict I will win a bottle of tequila, the likely result of a bet I made at the LASA 2012 conference with a Mexican academic, as I argued Peña Nieto will come first, with AMLO second and PAN third.
I'd be very glad to lose that bet tonight.
Sources:
No al voto nulo. El Universal, June 17, 2012.
Don't fear a PRI win in Mexico. Los Angeles Times, June 22, 2012.
Back to the future. The Economist, June 23, 2012.
El instituto se dice listo para difundir un conteo rápido la noche del domingo. La Jornada, June 25, 2012.
¿Cómo voy a votar? - Opinion - El Universal. El Universal, June 26, 2012.
El verdadero voto útil. Milenio, June 26, 2012.
Mexican media scandal: secretive Televisa unit promoted PRI candidate. The Guardian, June 26, 2012.
El IFE reconoce equidad informativa en contienda. El Universal, June 30, 2012.
El PREP, listo para elección, avala UNAM. El Universal, June 27, 2012.
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