Lorenzo Córdova Vianello, one of the nine councilors of Mexico's federal electoral institute, called for political actors - candidates, public servants - to be "responsible" in their use of public opinion polls ahead of Mexico's 2012 election, and not "contaminate" the electoral enviroment.
I think that can safely be taken as a finger pointing at Felipe Calderón, who happened to display, proud as a rooster, a poll that showed PAN's candidate trailing by only a few percentage points. No other poll - none - has showed anything remotely close to these figures.
Córdova also drew attention to the "irresponsibility" of politicians pointing to dubious and made-to-fit polls, an increasing problem in Mexico. All parties should feel this criticism sting a bit.
(On another note: Lorenzo Córdova is a man to keep in mind for future higher offices. I have been reading much of his work recently, and most of it is very brilliant stuff. I don't think being an IFE councilor - as important and prestigious as that job is - will be the zenith of his career.)
Wednesday, February 29, 2012
Monday, February 27, 2012
Mexico "drug war" affecting 52 % of municipalities
While the violence, as is often pointed out, is concentrated in a far fewer number, Mexico's attorney general office PGR stated that the 1269 municipalities, or 52 percent, have nonetheless been directly affected by the government's fight against organized crime (and their own infighting), according to today's El Universal.
For instance, in 97 percent (!) of the municipalities in Morelos, there have been deaths directly attributed to the drug "war" debacle. Michoacán, "my" state for a range of reasons, have as well as stunning 95 percent of its municipalities as having experienced drug war murders.
For instance, in 97 percent (!) of the municipalities in Morelos, there have been deaths directly attributed to the drug "war" debacle. Michoacán, "my" state for a range of reasons, have as well as stunning 95 percent of its municipalities as having experienced drug war murders.
Saturday, February 25, 2012
Calderón truly has no shame
In Mexico these days there is a veda electoral, or a ban on campaigning, ahead of the official campaign start.
Calderón and his party PAN should know better than to completely disrespect this, as well as other constitutional prohibitions of the president campaigning. Six years ago, Vicente Fox broke essentially every law in teh book and was strongly reprimanded by the courts for his interventions in the campaign. Calderón was then carried onward by an extremely dirty and dishonest campaign against AMLO.
Yet what does Calderón do? At a "private meeting" with 700 bankers, he presents the results of his own poll demonstrating that Josefina Vázquez Mota, the PAN's 2012 candidate, is allegedly only a few percentage points behind PRI's Enrique Peña Nieto and, with relish he relates, ahead of AMLO, his 2006 nemesis.
This politicking, aggravated by an extremely poor choice of timing, is really tasteless, and presents Calderón, already long criticized for his utter lack of any ability to listen to advice from others and his incessant stubborrness, as truly a little man, of no shame, and disrespectful of the presidential office as well as Mexico's democracy. It is nto worthy of a head of state.
Calderón and his party PAN should know better than to completely disrespect this, as well as other constitutional prohibitions of the president campaigning. Six years ago, Vicente Fox broke essentially every law in teh book and was strongly reprimanded by the courts for his interventions in the campaign. Calderón was then carried onward by an extremely dirty and dishonest campaign against AMLO.
Yet what does Calderón do? At a "private meeting" with 700 bankers, he presents the results of his own poll demonstrating that Josefina Vázquez Mota, the PAN's 2012 candidate, is allegedly only a few percentage points behind PRI's Enrique Peña Nieto and, with relish he relates, ahead of AMLO, his 2006 nemesis.
This politicking, aggravated by an extremely poor choice of timing, is really tasteless, and presents Calderón, already long criticized for his utter lack of any ability to listen to advice from others and his incessant stubborrness, as truly a little man, of no shame, and disrespectful of the presidential office as well as Mexico's democracy. It is nto worthy of a head of state.
Friday, February 24, 2012
The left loses Cuauhtémoc Sandoval Ramírez, 1950-2012
Former deputy, senator, and most recently secretary of migrants in the Guerrero state government, Cuauhtémoc Sandoval Ramírez, passed away recently.
The Mexican left has lost a great man. He played a very constructive role in the building of his party, the PRD, as well as in shaping legislation in both chambers of congress. I also had the pleasure of interviewing him a few years back - an extremely bright man, passionate for his causes, but also with a great sense of humor - what a great combination!
The Mexican left has lost a great man. He played a very constructive role in the building of his party, the PRD, as well as in shaping legislation in both chambers of congress. I also had the pleasure of interviewing him a few years back - an extremely bright man, passionate for his causes, but also with a great sense of humor - what a great combination!
The attacks on Mexico's electoral reform
I had the great pleasure of conducting an interview yesterday with Jorge Alcocer, who played a key role as an architect of Mexico's 2007-8 electoral reform. It was highly interesting and enlightening for many reasons, but perhaps in particular to a very current issue: The many attacks we have seen in the media recently on the electoral reform, coming particularly from commentators like Joaquín López-Dóriga, and many others.
Alcocer admitted the reform was far from perfect - and as one of its designers, he surely has his own reason to applaud it - but what I found interesting is how he argued so much of the attacks - not all, but many - are principally a product of the continued opposition of Mexico's media giants, represented by the national council for radio and television, CIRT, for the big economic losses they have faced after the reform was enacted.
To recall, no party is allowed to buy and air ads in electronic media; these are now all alloted by IFE, the federal electoral institute. Parties can't buy ads; CIRT members lose money.
He also noted that much of the criticism have been directed at the reform due to the behavior of IFE, which has indeed been very restrictive when it comes to regulating and at one point even seemingly banning candidate debates, and CIRT's people have used this to attack directly the reform - which did in no way ban this.
As if to prove Alcocer's point, the very same day President Vicente Fox again came out against attacking one product of the reform, the veda electoral or ban on campaigning until the election season officially begins. One would think that someone whose behavior and interference in Mexico's electoral processes was rebuked by Mexico's electoral tribunal in 2006 - it even jeopardized the elections, the tribunal declared in its ruling - would keep his mouth shut on such issues.
I made several interviews with IFE councilors a while ago and with these and Alcocer's insights I will hopefully put a paper out for an upcoming conference, though right noow, I am buried in work for my book. Posting will for the foreseable future therefore be rather light as a consequence.
Volveremos.
Alcocer admitted the reform was far from perfect - and as one of its designers, he surely has his own reason to applaud it - but what I found interesting is how he argued so much of the attacks - not all, but many - are principally a product of the continued opposition of Mexico's media giants, represented by the national council for radio and television, CIRT, for the big economic losses they have faced after the reform was enacted.
To recall, no party is allowed to buy and air ads in electronic media; these are now all alloted by IFE, the federal electoral institute. Parties can't buy ads; CIRT members lose money.
He also noted that much of the criticism have been directed at the reform due to the behavior of IFE, which has indeed been very restrictive when it comes to regulating and at one point even seemingly banning candidate debates, and CIRT's people have used this to attack directly the reform - which did in no way ban this.
As if to prove Alcocer's point, the very same day President Vicente Fox again came out against attacking one product of the reform, the veda electoral or ban on campaigning until the election season officially begins. One would think that someone whose behavior and interference in Mexico's electoral processes was rebuked by Mexico's electoral tribunal in 2006 - it even jeopardized the elections, the tribunal declared in its ruling - would keep his mouth shut on such issues.
I made several interviews with IFE councilors a while ago and with these and Alcocer's insights I will hopefully put a paper out for an upcoming conference, though right noow, I am buried in work for my book. Posting will for the foreseable future therefore be rather light as a consequence.
Volveremos.
Thursday, February 23, 2012
Biodiesel in Mexico, coming your way?
In Chiapas recently, Governor Juan Sabines of the PRD-run state opened the first biodieselera, or biodiesel "gas station" for cars. The fuel will be based on jatropha and palm tree oil, it appears, but also used cooking oil from restaurants as well as from rastros porcinos - pig pens! Will it smell?
In Veracruz, moreover, the state institute for bioenergy also is promoting the production of sugar cane, sweet sorghum, catrofa, palm oil and cassava to produce ethanol and biodiesel. For a great in-depth story of what may be the beginning of a wonderful adventure, see article in El Universal.
In Veracruz, moreover, the state institute for bioenergy also is promoting the production of sugar cane, sweet sorghum, catrofa, palm oil and cassava to produce ethanol and biodiesel. For a great in-depth story of what may be the beginning of a wonderful adventure, see article in El Universal.
Sunday, February 19, 2012
PRD's national congress: Relations of strenght
PRD is holding its 14th party congress, and among its tasks is to elect 64 of the members to its national council. This is interesting as it allows for a glimpse of the relations of strength within the party:
* The social-democratic current Nueva Izquierda got 25 of the seats
* Its ally ADN, also close ideologically, got 14
* The infamous IDN current of the Bejarano-Padierna couple got only
* The list backing Marcelo Ebrard got only 3
* Foro Nuevo Sol, also a moderate current allied to Ebrard, got six
In sum: Despite all the bravado talk of taking over the party, the "radicals" of IDN remain a minority within the party. Perhaps they should consider joining instead the PT.
* The social-democratic current Nueva Izquierda got 25 of the seats
* Its ally ADN, also close ideologically, got 14
* The infamous IDN current of the Bejarano-Padierna couple got only
* The list backing Marcelo Ebrard got only 3
* Foro Nuevo Sol, also a moderate current allied to Ebrard, got six
In sum: Despite all the bravado talk of taking over the party, the "radicals" of IDN remain a minority within the party. Perhaps they should consider joining instead the PT.
Manuel Espino and Calderón-the-drunkard
Last week's Proceso had long excerpts from the book Calderón de Cuerpo Entero, a biography of the Mexican president by Julio Scherer García, who is also the founder of the magazine, and as such sets the tone for the often rather erratic tone of the stories and rather unsubstantiated information in what is nonetheless a very important investigative news magazine.
Regardless: Much attention has been given to Calderón's alleged drinking problem. But as critics of the book have pointed out: Scherer hasn't exactly come up with much.
One key source for the book (based on at least its excerpts) is Manuel Espino, formerly PAN president, of a very unappealing and venomous personality and belonging to the very far right of PAN, which even expelled him given his criticisms of the party. Espino is a very, very bitter man, and to say that he is someone with an axe to grind is merely an understatement. Yes it does, to be sure, allow for some interesting reading and gossip.
Regardless: Here Espino is again in an interview with Milenio today, reminding us again of his character in an involuntarily funny way:
Q: Do you know that the Church has paid millions for their pedarats?
A: No. I don't know. It is not a topic I have gone deep into.
Q: Do you have children, Manuel?
A: I have three children.
Q: And have you also instilled in them your own phobias and loathing?
A: No. I have taught my children human values, respecting their freedom of decision.
Q: Have you asked if they are gay?
A: No. It is not necessary,they are not
Q: Have you asked them?
A: Myself? It is not necessary: I have no doubt.
It is not to Scherer's credit that so much of the book appears to be based on the bitterness of this little man.
Regardless: Much attention has been given to Calderón's alleged drinking problem. But as critics of the book have pointed out: Scherer hasn't exactly come up with much.
One key source for the book (based on at least its excerpts) is Manuel Espino, formerly PAN president, of a very unappealing and venomous personality and belonging to the very far right of PAN, which even expelled him given his criticisms of the party. Espino is a very, very bitter man, and to say that he is someone with an axe to grind is merely an understatement. Yes it does, to be sure, allow for some interesting reading and gossip.
Regardless: Here Espino is again in an interview with Milenio today, reminding us again of his character in an involuntarily funny way:
Q: Do you know that the Church has paid millions for their pedarats?
A: No. I don't know. It is not a topic I have gone deep into.
Q: Do you have children, Manuel?
A: I have three children.
Q: And have you also instilled in them your own phobias and loathing?
A: No. I have taught my children human values, respecting their freedom of decision.
Q: Have you asked if they are gay?
A: No. It is not necessary,they are not
Q: Have you asked them?
A: Myself? It is not necessary: I have no doubt.
It is not to Scherer's credit that so much of the book appears to be based on the bitterness of this little man.
Saturday, February 18, 2012
No condom for you!
Mayor Alejandro Higuera Osuna (PAN) of Mazatlán has with amazing speed and vigor halted the handing-out of free condoms by gay organizations during upcoming carnival festivities.
The reason? Why of course, because handing out condoms "undermine morality," mind you.
To be precise: We're not talking of any government-funded condoms, but the mayor wants to ban organizations from handing out their own condoms.
Why not ban their sale altogether? I bet mayor Higuera would if he could. Nothing says "morality" like sabotaging efforts at people having safe sex.
The reason? Why of course, because handing out condoms "undermine morality," mind you.
To be precise: We're not talking of any government-funded condoms, but the mayor wants to ban organizations from handing out their own condoms.
Why not ban their sale altogether? I bet mayor Higuera would if he could. Nothing says "morality" like sabotaging efforts at people having safe sex.
Friday, February 17, 2012
Exactly where is "La Chingada"?
It caused a bit of kerfuffle a couple of days ago when AMLO was caught on tape, in what was a private, closed meeting with business sectors, stating that unless he wins in 2006, ahora sí a la chingada, loosely and mildly translated perhaps as "then I will get the hell out of here." Unwisely, he first denied to reporters he had said this, until confronted with it on tape, which only made it seem bigger than it really is.
What's the big deal? To Joaquín López-Dóriga, he was merely referring to a family estate in Palenque, Chiapas, actually called "La Chingada," believe it or not.
As Ciro Gómez Leyva noted, more important is the other line that AMLO said:
"I have more experience now than before. I have less vigor, though, because I'm tired."
In short, it truly is this time, or never. No 2018. I see nothing wrong in stating this, quite the contrary.
Who would not be tired after what AMLO has done, visiting every single municipality in the country twice or so, constantly holding meetings, for six years straight?
What's the big deal? To Joaquín López-Dóriga, he was merely referring to a family estate in Palenque, Chiapas, actually called "La Chingada," believe it or not.
As Ciro Gómez Leyva noted, more important is the other line that AMLO said:
"I have more experience now than before. I have less vigor, though, because I'm tired."
In short, it truly is this time, or never. No 2018. I see nothing wrong in stating this, quite the contrary.
Who would not be tired after what AMLO has done, visiting every single municipality in the country twice or so, constantly holding meetings, for six years straight?
Don't trust the polls
It's a topic that has gotten some traction recently, but it warrants even more: Polls in Mexico are unfortunately often very unreliable, and purposely so: Rather than to present a snapshot of public opinion, the figures are "massaged" to present one candidate or party in a good (or bad) light. Pollsters - not all, but many - are unfortunately for sale.
Yes, some candidates take it too far, questioning any and all polls and refuse to rectify a failing strategy (think AMLO 2006). But many have a reason to do so, and perhaps AMLO more than many others these days:
Francisco Abundis, head of Parametría, warned that parties will try to use any data the coming weeks in particular to suggest that that the presidential contest is getting narrower, and that AMLO is not growing in the polls. The step is then very short to specifically ask polling companies for "results" - give us something that backs however we want things to be.
Abundis' advice strikes me as very sound: Take polls with more than a pinch of salt, and look for patterns across various polls and across companies, and over time.
Yes, some candidates take it too far, questioning any and all polls and refuse to rectify a failing strategy (think AMLO 2006). But many have a reason to do so, and perhaps AMLO more than many others these days:
Francisco Abundis, head of Parametría, warned that parties will try to use any data the coming weeks in particular to suggest that that the presidential contest is getting narrower, and that AMLO is not growing in the polls. The step is then very short to specifically ask polling companies for "results" - give us something that backs however we want things to be.
Abundis' advice strikes me as very sound: Take polls with more than a pinch of salt, and look for patterns across various polls and across companies, and over time.
Wednesday, February 15, 2012
Mexican church again at war with the left - and the law
Mexico's church is not allowed to call for a vote in favor - or against - parties and political candidates, nor to interfere in politics. It may sound oppressive and intolerant for an outsider, but this is a church that after all, as an institution,
1) fought against independence
2) betrayed Mexico by favoring French intervention in the 19th century
3) virulently fought against the revolution
4) sponsored a religious uprising in the 1920s
5) has often failed to respect loyalty to the state and its insitutions
Etc, etc.
Now the church openly calls for Mexicans to vote in favor of parties that oppose gay marriage and women's reproductive rights.
Norberto Rivera Carrera, Mexico's cardinal - a man who should be locked up in prison not only for his failure to act against child raping priests, but specifically for his active sabotage of the investigations of these hideous crimes and his cover-up and protection of those responsible - has the following to declare:
1) fought against independence
2) betrayed Mexico by favoring French intervention in the 19th century
3) virulently fought against the revolution
4) sponsored a religious uprising in the 1920s
5) has often failed to respect loyalty to the state and its insitutions
Etc, etc.
Now the church openly calls for Mexicans to vote in favor of parties that oppose gay marriage and women's reproductive rights.
Norberto Rivera Carrera, Mexico's cardinal - a man who should be locked up in prison not only for his failure to act against child raping priests, but specifically for his active sabotage of the investigations of these hideous crimes and his cover-up and protection of those responsible - has the following to declare:
it is not possible to make a political option those who are supporters or promoters of false rights and freedoms which threaten the teachings of the scripture, tradition and doctrine of the Church.In one way, it is at least an improvement: At least they didn't declare, "God free us from a fascist party like the PRD" as they did last time.
Tuesday, February 14, 2012
Best comment yet on Paredes' Mexico City mayor bid
From La Jornada:
"As president of PRI, I backed Ulises Ruiz and [Mario Marín], and I made deals with PAN against the rights of women.
Ah! But now if you give me your vote, I will govern as if I were of the left."
Ah! But now if you give me your vote, I will govern as if I were of the left."
This is how a narco church looks like
Pictures from El Universal, from the church in Tezontle, Hidalgo, where Zeta leader Heriberto Lazcano Lazcano is kindly acknowledged as its donor:
More pictures here, and the story on how the locals celebrate Lazcano in Hidalgo
More pictures here, and the story on how the locals celebrate Lazcano in Hidalgo
Is PRI trying to kill its cadres?
Recent events may make one wonder.
It is quite common that PAN, PRD, and PRI - and all the other minor parties - offer meals for people who "show up" at their campaign rallies.
What is thankfully not so common is that the food is of so poor quality and dangerous to your health that it threatens to kill scores of your followers:
- In Chilapa, Guerrero, close to 800 (!) people got intoxicated at a PRI rally eating tainted egg tacos
- Then, in Zinacantepec, Mexico State, 150 people got sick (50 needed hospitalization) after eating food provided by the PRI mayor of Valle de Bravo.
Two such incidents in just one week, from the same party?
It is quite common that PAN, PRD, and PRI - and all the other minor parties - offer meals for people who "show up" at their campaign rallies.
What is thankfully not so common is that the food is of so poor quality and dangerous to your health that it threatens to kill scores of your followers:
- In Chilapa, Guerrero, close to 800 (!) people got intoxicated at a PRI rally eating tainted egg tacos
- Then, in Zinacantepec, Mexico State, 150 people got sick (50 needed hospitalization) after eating food provided by the PRI mayor of Valle de Bravo.
Two such incidents in just one week, from the same party?
Monday, February 13, 2012
Peña Nieto faking Twitter followers
Fascinating article from Milenio on PRI candidate Enrique Peña Nieto: While leading the pack with seemingly more than 400,000 followers on twitter, an investigation carried out by the newspaper on just a sample of those found that many of these are simply bots, or "ghost accounts" = fake followers.
Perhaps I am mistaking wishful thinking for analysis, but Peña Nieto's presidential project seems ever more shallow the more light shines on it.
Here's a graphic where the official number of followers are displayed. How many are fakes?
Perhaps I am mistaking wishful thinking for analysis, but Peña Nieto's presidential project seems ever more shallow the more light shines on it.
Here's a graphic where the official number of followers are displayed. How many are fakes?
 |
| From Milenio |
Sunday, February 12, 2012
How can this be legal? Guanajuato and the pope
According to the political gossip column in Milenio:
Guanajuato's government paid 2 000 800 pesos for each of the nearly 220 rooms reserved so that officials and friends of Governor Juan Manuel Oliva can sleep in luxurious hotels located on avenida López Mateos, and from there observe the route that Pope Benedict XVI will carry out in the city of León March.
Bátiz would head PGR, Mondragón SSP
Two more "cabinet announcements" for AMLO should he win the presidency:
- Bernardo Bátiz, his ex-attorney general in Mexico City, would head the national PGR to be Attorney General of Mexico (the position Marisela Morales now holds)
- Manuel Mondragón, current head of police in Mexico City, would head the federal SSP, Secretariat of Public Security (the position Genaro García Luna now holds)
Also, notably, AMLO in Nuevo León said some businessmen apologized for their role in the 2006 "dirty campaign" where business sectors sponsored illegal campaign ads against him.
- Bernardo Bátiz, his ex-attorney general in Mexico City, would head the national PGR to be Attorney General of Mexico (the position Marisela Morales now holds)
- Manuel Mondragón, current head of police in Mexico City, would head the federal SSP, Secretariat of Public Security (the position Genaro García Luna now holds)
Also, notably, AMLO in Nuevo León said some businessmen apologized for their role in the 2006 "dirty campaign" where business sectors sponsored illegal campaign ads against him.
Alejandro Solalinde, remarkable priest
If there's a devil, he might very well live on Mexico's southern border, which for so many Central American immigrants is a hellish nightmare of kidnappings, torture, rape, and murder.
One man who fights the cause of immigrants and defends human rights in general: The remarkable Alejandro Solalinde Guerra.
Here's a fun interview. Excerpts:
Q: Who do you fear more: the drug dealers or politicians?
- The two together, because sometimes there is no difference between them.
...Well, the Pope is only a servant of servants.
Q: By the way, why is he coming?
- It is very curious that he is going exactly to a PAN stronghold. But I will not assume anything.
One man who fights the cause of immigrants and defends human rights in general: The remarkable Alejandro Solalinde Guerra.
Here's a fun interview. Excerpts:
Q: Who do you fear more: the drug dealers or politicians?
- The two together, because sometimes there is no difference between them.
...Well, the Pope is only a servant of servants.
Q: By the way, why is he coming?
- It is very curious that he is going exactly to a PAN stronghold. But I will not assume anything.
Saturday, February 11, 2012
Clouthier on Vázquez Mota: Quote
Manuel Clouthier said he would not seek a PAN senate seat from Sinaloa given differences with the national PAN leadership.
Then, he noted of Josefina Vázquez Mota that he knows "what she is made of" given that he was her colleague for two years in the Chamber of Deputies:
Ouch.
Then, he noted of Josefina Vázquez Mota that he knows "what she is made of" given that he was her colleague for two years in the Chamber of Deputies:
"she has an extraordinary ability to deceive people"
Ouch.
Mexico informal economy from 10 to 14 million under PAN
In 2000, an estimated 10 million people worked in Mexico's informal sector. In 2012, the number has risen to 14 million, according to the state statistics institute INEGI.
Almost one out three (29.2 percent) of the working population is now found in the informal sectors.
That means they get little if any medical coverage, and when they are too old to work, they will have little if any pension or social security income from the state.
These are damning figures of the 12 years in power of the PAN governments of Vicente Fox and Felipe Calderón.
Here's a graphic, from Milenio:
Almost one out three (29.2 percent) of the working population is now found in the informal sectors.
That means they get little if any medical coverage, and when they are too old to work, they will have little if any pension or social security income from the state.
These are damning figures of the 12 years in power of the PAN governments of Vicente Fox and Felipe Calderón.
Here's a graphic, from Milenio:
 |
| Milenio |
Graco, who introduced AMLO to Cárdenas, governor candidate
Senator Graco Ramírez (PRD), the man who in 1988 introduced AMLO to Cárdenas (when the latter sought to recruit him to run as opposition candidate to PRI as governor of Tabasco), will himself finally be the candidate of the left to be governor of Morelos, it was announced yesterday
Ramírez stands a pretty good chance, both thanks to the relative strength of the PRD apparatus there, and due to his own popularity within Morelos. Suerte.
Update: Interview here
Ramírez stands a pretty good chance, both thanks to the relative strength of the PRD apparatus there, and due to his own popularity within Morelos. Suerte.
Update: Interview here
Friday, February 10, 2012
Profiles of Josefina Vázquez Mota, The Guardian
A Josefina Vázquez Mota profile in The Guardian (by Luis Hernández Navarro, opinion editor of La Jornada) is well worth a read. It draws attention to traits pretty much ignored the past days, such a quite worrisome one:
Her religious zeal.
Also, from the very sharp Shannon O'Neil, a profile in Foreign Affairs.My only quibble is that while she notes the PAN candidate has "substantial political experience," she could also have dug a bit more to note that she has, either in government or as a federal deputy, achieved very, very little.
Indeed, except from a public spat with Elba Esther Gordillo, I can't hardly even remember her grabbing the limelight for anything substantial the past six years.
Her religious zeal.
Also, from the very sharp Shannon O'Neil, a profile in Foreign Affairs.My only quibble is that while she notes the PAN candidate has "substantial political experience," she could also have dug a bit more to note that she has, either in government or as a federal deputy, achieved very, very little.
Indeed, except from a public spat with Elba Esther Gordillo, I can't hardly even remember her grabbing the limelight for anything substantial the past six years.
Chiapas: Senator Orantes left's governor candidate
It's a classic story: María Elena Orantes López is a senator, and was until recently a prominent member of the PRI - until that party denied her the nomination to be its gubernatorial candidate in Chiapas.
The left stepped in, negotiated, and Manuel Camacho Solís, coordinator of the PRD-PT-MC-MORENA electoral alliance, just announced her candidacy for the left coalition to be 2012-18 governor of Chiapas..
The mayor of Tuxtla Gutiérrez, Yassir Vázquez (PRD) is not happy. He was also the delfín of current governor Juan Sabines (also an ex-PRI member recruited by the left when, you got it, he, too, was denied its nomination in 2006), and need to be awarded some kind of consolation price.
Given that the PRI is also in turmoil in Chiapas for much of the same reasons, Orantes stands a good chance of winning, and was also strongly backed by AMLO, who noted her alleged progressive record as Senator.
We'll see.
The left stepped in, negotiated, and Manuel Camacho Solís, coordinator of the PRD-PT-MC-MORENA electoral alliance, just announced her candidacy for the left coalition to be 2012-18 governor of Chiapas..
The mayor of Tuxtla Gutiérrez, Yassir Vázquez (PRD) is not happy. He was also the delfín of current governor Juan Sabines (also an ex-PRI member recruited by the left when, you got it, he, too, was denied its nomination in 2006), and need to be awarded some kind of consolation price.
Given that the PRI is also in turmoil in Chiapas for much of the same reasons, Orantes stands a good chance of winning, and was also strongly backed by AMLO, who noted her alleged progressive record as Senator.
We'll see.
Three million more poor in three years
What a damning indictment of PAN and Calderón's social and economic policies: According to CONEVAL, there are now 3.2 million poor in Mexico when compared with 2008. Mexico's indigenous are particularly hard hit:
Josefina Vázquez Mota is running, much like Calderón in 2006, on a campaign of continuity with PAN's policies. For the poor of Mexico, that is a terrible choice.
Of the indigenous population, 40.5% have nutritional deficiencies, exacerbated by their condition of marginality and exclusion.See CONEVAL's full report here.
Josefina Vázquez Mota is running, much like Calderón in 2006, on a campaign of continuity with PAN's policies. For the poor of Mexico, that is a terrible choice.
Wednesday, February 8, 2012
2012 election: It could hardly be more fascinating
I venture the 2012 election is even more exciting and interesting and possibly consequential than 2000:
* It could be the return of the PRI, a dreadful scenario
* It could be the victory of Mexico's first women president, a remarkable historic development
* It could be the first victory of the left in Mexico's history, also a remarkable achievement
I rank these in reverse preference order, and instead in order of likelihood.
Yet things are far more open now than I ever thought imaginable when 2011 rang out.
* It could be the return of the PRI, a dreadful scenario
* It could be the victory of Mexico's first women president, a remarkable historic development
* It could be the first victory of the left in Mexico's history, also a remarkable achievement
I rank these in reverse preference order, and instead in order of likelihood.
Yet things are far more open now than I ever thought imaginable when 2011 rang out.
Cárdenas strongly backs AMLO - and gay marriage!
Now this is what I call a remarkable evolution, and for both parties involved.
First, hats off to Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas: In his manifest "A Mexico for all," he comes strongly out in favor of gay rights, including marriage and adoption, as well as reproductive rights for women. Bravo! The evolution of Cárdenas toward the agenda of the modern, international and socially liberal left is very welcome, and speaks volumes of this man's character.
Yet there is more: It is news in itself that AMLO and Cárdenas meet, given the bitter and likely consequential fights between them in the past (Had they been resolved in 2006, for instance, AMLO might now be president). They just did for the presentation of Cárdenas' project (available here), where the three-time presidential candidate now came out strongly in favor of AMLO's candidacy.
Yet then AMLO actually declares he supports Cárdenas' manifest, including all said socially liberal issues. This is nothing short of remarkable, given that AMLO has long been quite conservative on the social front, never touching the abortion issue and moreover operating actively against gay marriage in Mexico City (details to follow in my upcoming book).
Let's repeat it, as it begs so: AMLO declares in favor of promoting abortion rights and gay rights for his presidential campaign.
And a remarkable photo of left unity:
In terms of left evolution and left unity, the importance of these developments should not be understated. As Joe Biden would put it, it's a...
First, hats off to Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas: In his manifest "A Mexico for all," he comes strongly out in favor of gay rights, including marriage and adoption, as well as reproductive rights for women. Bravo! The evolution of Cárdenas toward the agenda of the modern, international and socially liberal left is very welcome, and speaks volumes of this man's character.
Yet there is more: It is news in itself that AMLO and Cárdenas meet, given the bitter and likely consequential fights between them in the past (Had they been resolved in 2006, for instance, AMLO might now be president). They just did for the presentation of Cárdenas' project (available here), where the three-time presidential candidate now came out strongly in favor of AMLO's candidacy.
Yet then AMLO actually declares he supports Cárdenas' manifest, including all said socially liberal issues. This is nothing short of remarkable, given that AMLO has long been quite conservative on the social front, never touching the abortion issue and moreover operating actively against gay marriage in Mexico City (details to follow in my upcoming book).
Let's repeat it, as it begs so: AMLO declares in favor of promoting abortion rights and gay rights for his presidential campaign.
And a remarkable photo of left unity:
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| Terra |
In terms of left evolution and left unity, the importance of these developments should not be understated. As Joe Biden would put it, it's a...
Another politician with no shame: Zeferino Torreblanca,
Zeferino Torreblanca Galindo was a professional politician for the PRD from 1992 until 2010, despite never bothering to become a member of the party. When he failed to have his chosen successor imposed as the PRD candidate in 2010, he very publicly broke with the party, which he referred to as "bandits, mercenaries, poisoners."
His abysmal administration is currently being audited.
Yet Torreblanca - to recall, a former governor - is hardly done with politics, and now aims for the mayorship of Acapulco - for the PAN.
PAN is almost non-existent in Guerrero, and apparently they see in Torreblanca the possibility to make inroads in the state, yet given his unpopularity I doubt he'll stand a chance - and only serve to label the Guerrero PAN as highly opportunistic.
His abysmal administration is currently being audited.
Yet Torreblanca - to recall, a former governor - is hardly done with politics, and now aims for the mayorship of Acapulco - for the PAN.
PAN is almost non-existent in Guerrero, and apparently they see in Torreblanca the possibility to make inroads in the state, yet given his unpopularity I doubt he'll stand a chance - and only serve to label the Guerrero PAN as highly opportunistic.
The Rick Santorum of Guanajuato
Here's a profile of Miguel Márquez Márquez, who won the PAN's primary to be its candidate for governor in Guanajuato, a stronghold for the party it is highly expected to win.
Márquez Márquez, a member of the far-right catholic Yunque and a staunch social conservative, is essentially the Santorum Santorum of Guanajuato.
Márquez Márquez, a member of the far-right catholic Yunque and a staunch social conservative, is essentially the Santorum Santorum of Guanajuato.
Tuesday, February 7, 2012
El Yunque wins in Guanajuato: Miguel Márquez Márquez wins
Other key PAN candidates were elected this Sunday:
Guanajuato: Miguel Márquez Márquez won over former health secretary José Ángel Córdova Villalobos to be PAN's gubernatorial candidate in Guanajuato in 2012 - and given PAN's strength in the state, that makes him very likely its next governor. Márquez was the anointed successor of current governor Juan Manuel Oliva, and is also very close to the catholic extremist organization El Yunque, which nonetheless reportedly is divided internally these days. It was also another defeat for Calderón and also Fox, who both backed Córdova.
Jaliasco: PAN chose Fernando Guzmán, a pure yunquista, as its candidate. PAN has run the state since 1992 but will also face two strong candidates: Mayor Enrique Alfaro Ramírez of Tlajomulco de Zúñiga (of the larger Guadalajara metro area) for the left, and Guadalajara mayor Jorge Aristóteles Sandoval Díaz of the PRI.
Guanajuato: Miguel Márquez Márquez won over former health secretary José Ángel Córdova Villalobos to be PAN's gubernatorial candidate in Guanajuato in 2012 - and given PAN's strength in the state, that makes him very likely its next governor. Márquez was the anointed successor of current governor Juan Manuel Oliva, and is also very close to the catholic extremist organization El Yunque, which nonetheless reportedly is divided internally these days. It was also another defeat for Calderón and also Fox, who both backed Córdova.
Jaliasco: PAN chose Fernando Guzmán, a pure yunquista, as its candidate. PAN has run the state since 1992 but will also face two strong candidates: Mayor Enrique Alfaro Ramírez of Tlajomulco de Zúñiga (of the larger Guadalajara metro area) for the left, and Guadalajara mayor Jorge Aristóteles Sandoval Díaz of the PRI.
AMLO will introduce revocation of mandate
Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) said yesterday he would introduce the mechanism of "revocation of mandate," where his presidency could end prematurely if enough of Mexico's citizen in a referendum voted to "revoke" his mandate.
Yet AMLO would take this mechanism (as far as I know pioneered by Hugo Chávez in Venezuela and one of the despairingly few positive institutional developments under his rule), one step further:
Not only would this exercise be allowed, but AMLO would make it obligatory, whereby every two years, he would submit to some kind of referendum on his mandate.
Obligatorily.
Yet AMLO would take this mechanism (as far as I know pioneered by Hugo Chávez in Venezuela and one of the despairingly few positive institutional developments under his rule), one step further:
Not only would this exercise be allowed, but AMLO would make it obligatory, whereby every two years, he would submit to some kind of referendum on his mandate.
Obligatorily.
Monday, February 6, 2012
PAN's Superbowl: Vázquez Mota wins primary for the presidency
She needed to win a majority of 50 percent plus one vote, or at least 37 percent with 5 percent difference to number two.
She did: With 55 percent to Cordero's 38.1, Vázquez Mota will be the presidential candidate for the Partido Acción Nacional (PAN) in 2012 (with around 90 percent counted).
Former interior secretary Santiago Creel, who was the first to declare his candidacy, had earlier conceded.
Now let's wait and see if Cordero does the same, or whether he will protest the outcome.
(While a national primary, PAN's strength and the brunt of its militants are found in 10 states: Veracruz, Estado de México, Jalisco, Mexico City, Puebla, Michoacán, Oaxaca, Yucatán, Sonora and Guanajuato.)
This was a remarkably dirty campaign, with very nasty labels hurled around (Cordero's description of JVM as "intolerant and anti-democratic" perhaps the most offensive of these.)
Now the question is, to be sure, who she will pull votes from. It seems to me that Enrique Peña Nieto will be the loser here; I bet a bottle of Mexico's finest that he would have preferred Cordero.
This is truly historic: For the first time, one of Mexico's major party will have a women candidate. Good for them!
She did: With 55 percent to Cordero's 38.1, Vázquez Mota will be the presidential candidate for the Partido Acción Nacional (PAN) in 2012 (with around 90 percent counted).
Former interior secretary Santiago Creel, who was the first to declare his candidacy, had earlier conceded.
Now let's wait and see if Cordero does the same, or whether he will protest the outcome.
(While a national primary, PAN's strength and the brunt of its militants are found in 10 states: Veracruz, Estado de México, Jalisco, Mexico City, Puebla, Michoacán, Oaxaca, Yucatán, Sonora and Guanajuato.)
This was a remarkably dirty campaign, with very nasty labels hurled around (Cordero's description of JVM as "intolerant and anti-democratic" perhaps the most offensive of these.)
Now the question is, to be sure, who she will pull votes from. It seems to me that Enrique Peña Nieto will be the loser here; I bet a bottle of Mexico's finest that he would have preferred Cordero.
This is truly historic: For the first time, one of Mexico's major party will have a women candidate. Good for them!
Sunday, February 5, 2012
The catholic church and the drug war
A recent article well worth reading from The Christian Science Monitor, entitled "Growing Catholic divide over Mexico drug war," portrays José Raúl Vera López of Saltillo, the very progressive-minded bishop of Saltillo:
Bishop José Raúl Vera López of Mexico has never shied away from controversy, defending unpopular minorities ranging from illegal migrants to prostitutes.
Now, as violence between Mexican drug traffickers and security forces pushes the drug war's five-year death toll over 45,000, the Roman Catholic bishop is taking on the government. He claims that corrupt officials are allying with criminals to skim drug profits and using the military to murder criminals who might reveal any collusionRoderic Ai Camp is cited as suggesting the main reason the church is generally staying out of commenting on the drug "war" is out of desire not to undermine Mexico's security institutions. Camp has few rivals when it comes to the breadth and scope of his research and knowledge of Mexico, but he has often gone way too soft on the church in his writing, and I think this claim only reflects one reason why the church is not saying/doing more - and not only that of the generous "narco donations," though that reason surely warrants mention.
Saturday, February 4, 2012
35,000 teachers march in Mexico City
Teachers in Oaxaca, mostly "dissidents" in that they are opposed to the national teacher union SNTE and instead belong to the rival CNTE, have a bad fame for spending very little of their work hours in the classroom and instead out on the road protesting or operating for electoral purposes.
Now they've been joined by other, mostly CNTE-affiliated teachers, from Chiapas, Guerrero, and Michoacán and other states in a huge 35,000-strong protest in Mexico City.
Some of their demands are just: Democratization of the ultra-corrupt SNTE teacher union led by Elba Esther Gordillo. They also have legitimate concerns over the overhaul of ISSTE, changing the terms for retirement pensions and health care to public workers, though this was passed more than four years ago and was arguably needed to avoid complete bankruptcy of the system.
Yet what is their major demand? They refuse to be subject to any tests of their qualifications whatsoever, as proposed in the Alianza por la Calidad de la Educación. No comprehensive entrance exams, no tests later on to see if they are actually qualified to teach Mexico's children and youth, which Mexico's poor educational ratings suggest they may not be.
Is this really a fair and just cause, worth leaving hundreds of thousands of children without school, for as long as the strike last, and shutting down Mexico City in the process?
Now they've been joined by other, mostly CNTE-affiliated teachers, from Chiapas, Guerrero, and Michoacán and other states in a huge 35,000-strong protest in Mexico City.
Some of their demands are just: Democratization of the ultra-corrupt SNTE teacher union led by Elba Esther Gordillo. They also have legitimate concerns over the overhaul of ISSTE, changing the terms for retirement pensions and health care to public workers, though this was passed more than four years ago and was arguably needed to avoid complete bankruptcy of the system.
Yet what is their major demand? They refuse to be subject to any tests of their qualifications whatsoever, as proposed in the Alianza por la Calidad de la Educación. No comprehensive entrance exams, no tests later on to see if they are actually qualified to teach Mexico's children and youth, which Mexico's poor educational ratings suggest they may not be.
Is this really a fair and just cause, worth leaving hundreds of thousands of children without school, for as long as the strike last, and shutting down Mexico City in the process?
Strange days in Mexican politics
Some very unexpected pronouncements in Mexican politics the past days:
* Former president Vicente Fox lauds social programs pioneered by AMLO when he was Mexico City mayor, such as the monthly stipends for the elderly. Fox, who ignominiously sought to bar AMLO from the 2006 contest, and on numerous times joined the dirty and often illegal media campaign against him.
* Liberal intellectual Enrique Krauze, who coined the term "Tropical Messiah" and wrote a scathing essay in the high-brow Letras Libres magazine that likely greatly damaged AMLO ahead of the 2006 election, in a TV program with Sergio Aguayo deemed AMLO a "clean man" untainted by corruption and - the kicker - that he would even consider voting for him!
Strange days, indeed.
Friday, February 3, 2012
Mexico public sector debt: 32.4% of GDP
Wednesday, February 1, 2012
Outrageous brazenness of the Veracruz government
It's a plot out of a movie: A man carries a suitcase of 25 million pesos to the airport to pay off a dubious company, but gets arrested by the federal police in the last moment.
That person was Vicente Benítez González, treasurer of the Veracruz government of PRI Governor Javier Duarte de Ochoa. The governor first sheepishly stated there was absolutely nothing wrong here; the secretary was merely carrying out payment to "Industria 3," responsible for arranging some upcoming festivals in the state.
Really? Since when has it become common to pay debts in cash, which is unsafe and moreover illegal? Yet Duarte and Secretary of Finance Tomás Ruiz still maintained this line that nothing was remotely wrong, and that the payment was simply in cash because the company urgently needed the money, for festivals weeks and months into the future.
As PRD intellectual and pre-candidate for Congress Fernando Belaunzarán, put it in his blog,
Where was the money really going? For Duarte's own benefit? For Peña Nieto's campaign? We will likely not know, unfortunately, but what is clear is that if this had been a legitimate transaction, it would not have been attempted carried out in this mafia-like manner.
That person was Vicente Benítez González, treasurer of the Veracruz government of PRI Governor Javier Duarte de Ochoa. The governor first sheepishly stated there was absolutely nothing wrong here; the secretary was merely carrying out payment to "Industria 3," responsible for arranging some upcoming festivals in the state.
Really? Since when has it become common to pay debts in cash, which is unsafe and moreover illegal? Yet Duarte and Secretary of Finance Tomás Ruiz still maintained this line that nothing was remotely wrong, and that the payment was simply in cash because the company urgently needed the money, for festivals weeks and months into the future.
As PRD intellectual and pre-candidate for Congress Fernando Belaunzarán, put it in his blog,
Nothing adds up in this case, which goes against even the most elementary logic, Javier Duarte and Tomas Ruiz want to convince us that it was better and safer to send the money in a suitcase with one of his own rather than to type in the transfer in a computer. What a strange urgency that compels one to do everything more difficult! By the way, were they planning to spend the 25 million, including those of the festival 50 days later, during a weekend, or could they not wait until Monday?After claiming everything was fully correct, governor Duarte then suddenly thought otherwise, and sacked his treasurer.
Where was the money really going? For Duarte's own benefit? For Peña Nieto's campaign? We will likely not know, unfortunately, but what is clear is that if this had been a legitimate transaction, it would not have been attempted carried out in this mafia-like manner.
On Elba Esther Gordillo's downfall: Denise Dresser
Denise Dresser, eloquent and sharp as she usually is, has a great commentary in La Vanguardia on the weakening power of Elba Esther Gordillo, but also on how Enrique Peña Nieto has far less power vis-a-vis the PRI than many has assumed. Read it here.
The gist of the article:
"Yes, [Gordillo] has been an Iron Lady, but today she is perhaps little less than a dented tin can."
The gist of the article:
"Yes, [Gordillo] has been an Iron Lady, but today she is perhaps little less than a dented tin can."
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