Wednesday, February 8, 2012

2012 election: It could hardly be more fascinating

I venture the 2012 election is even more exciting and interesting and possibly consequential than 2000:

* It could be the return of the PRI, a dreadful scenario
* It could be the victory of Mexico's first women president, a remarkable historic development
* It could be the first victory of the left in Mexico's history, also a remarkable achievement

I rank these in reverse preference order, and instead in order of likelihood.
Yet things are far more open now than I ever thought imaginable when 2011 rang out.


  1. What do you make of Pena Nieto's huge lead in the polls? Living in Mexico City, it seems that people who take the guy seriously are few and far between. It also seems incredible that after the recent bad publicity (scandals, gaffes), he seemingly hasn't suffered any loss in his lead. Just curious as to why that might be. Is Televisa's grip so powerful on a certain section of the population?

  2. Yes, I'm afraid you are indeed answering your own question there. Mexico City is quite anti-PRI and unfortunately not much representative of the voting mass as a whole. For more on Peña Nieto as a media product I recommend the two books/Proceso articles/blog etc by Jenaro Villamil.

  3. DF isn't and I'm not sure how accurate the polling is, especially in the campo and among voters who don't own telephones. Vasquez Mota's revanchist Catholicism may undo her, or may split the hard Catholic vote that EPN was attempting to capture. I recently was talking with a hard-core PRIista, who plans to vote for AMLO because of EPN's overtures to the Church... which could make the whole thing even more fascinating to watch.

    BTW, I wouldn't say there's never been a leftist President. Obregón was the first "out" Socialist in the Americas, and both Lazaro Cardenas and Adolfo Lopez Mateos were, in their time, considered far left.