The Mexican Congress: data, data, and data

If you're interested in the Mexican congress, here is neat little report from Integralia, the new consulting company of ex IFE head Luis Carlos Ugalde.

It includes data such as attendance, party unity in votes, initiatives, etc.  Direct PDF

One fun fact: guess the least productive legislator, with only six (!) percent attendance in congressional votes?

Josefina Vázquez Mota.
Gee, wonder what's been keeping her so busy.

Alejandra Barrales, for the nth time, says she wants to be mayor of Mexico City

Alejandra Barrales, apparently to the chagrin of Marcelo Ebrard, just the occasion of her second informe of her activities to express for the umpteenth time her "aspiration" to be mayor. Yes, we know - she has been expressing this for a long time. In my opinion, a far better, and much more qualified, candidate is Senator Carlos Navarrete. I'd love to see another woman as mayor (though certainly not another Rosario Robles), but I really don't see Barrales having done a whole lot that warrants her candidacy.

So when is Cordero declining? Josefina Vázquez Mota's big lead

Interesting figures on the candidates for PAN's 2012 presidential candidacy: Josefina Vázquez Mota surges ahead with 30.2 percent among all voters, and 39.4 among identified PAN voters. That is slightly ahead of Santiago Creel in the general demographic, but 9 points ahead among the PAN faithful - and poor Cordero is down on around 8.5 on both dimensions

The biggest plus, though: She is on the rise, and still is quite a bit less known than Creel, suggesting much potential to grow.

Señora presidenta?
(as it were, three of my students, Mexican nationals, all tend to think so, though they also very much like Ebrard...)

Ebrard: No to pact with criminals

Q: Is it worth making pacts with the criminals, like as proposed by Vicente Fox, or is wrong?

Marcelo Ebrard: Of course he is wrong; it would be like throwing in the towel, right? I think it is a wrong statement

Oh, god.

From Milenio, an interview with Gregorio "Greg" Sánchez

"During my stay at the maximum security prison I wrote more than 125 praises to Almighty God, I decided to record a christian album with 15 songs and it is already in the hands of producers and we tust in God that is finished and ready in December in order to be launched in the international market in January 2012. All songs are taken from the Bible, because  even if I lived for a thousand years it would be enough to exalt the name of the Lord.

Greg sang a cappella one of those tunes, "You are the Way, the Truth and the Life / Jesus Christ, you were the Resurrection / Jesus Christ my savior / rivers of living water flowing within you, sir, / let me look your face, let me touch your love."

Alonso Lujambio declines - what's next?

It was hardly a surprise that Alonso Lujambio declined to seek the PAN's presidential nomination; the more interesting issue is what he will pursue next: A senate seat? Or even mayor of Mexico City?

Sharp Calderón response to Fox's "truce" suggestion: It is your fault

Recently, former president Vicente Fox notably called for a "truce" of some kind with the criminal gangs fighting the Mexican government, and each other.

Calderón yesterday offered a rebuke that could hardly be harsher, essentially stating that Mexico is in this situation because of the truce Fox gave these organizations: "to the extent that one did not act with determination against the criminals, they were expanding in networks all around the country."

Essentially: It is Fox' fault for not having taken them on.

So much for the party unity that prominent PAN members have been calling for: It is hard to image the relations between the current and former presidents being any colder.

Liars!

Former PAN president Manuel Espino's reaction to the recent TEPJF decision against him is as predictable as the sun also rising: "Liars!"

Yes, Espino, head of PAN during the contentious 2006 election, pulled an AMLO: Never, ever accept any verdict against you; rather, disqualify any adversarial [election, poll, court decision, etc] ruling in your disfavor.

Good NACLA overview of the Mexican left

NACLA's Fred Rosen has a good overview of the PRD and the Mexican left here.

Hilarious Denise Dresser "prayer" on the Humberto Moreira scandal

Denise Dresser's criticism of PRI president Humberto Moreira in prayer form is simply a must read, published in this week's Proceso.

Ominous sign for 2012: Mexico's electoral institute feuds

More on the internal troubles of Mexico's Instituto Federal Electoral (IFE), from a La Jornada report:

Not only is IFE, responsible for arranging Mexico's federal elections, missing three councilors yet to be appointed by congress, but finds itself completely divided 3-3 in bitter internal feud. The main protagonists are IFE president  Leonardo Valdés vs. Marco Antonio Baños and  Francisco Guerrero, who now fight about virtually everything, in an increasingly bitter tone. The latter two are close to PRI and operate essentially as the party's agents, yet Valdés is also facing criticism from PRD, originally positive toward his election, and PAN, for his leadership style, and decisions taken.

A very, very ominous sign for 2012 that begs repeating.

Unorthodox political recruitment

The Zacatecas branch of Mexican Workers Party (Partido del Trabajo PT) is organizing a beauty contest in order to recruit youth to the Morena movement of Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO). Yes, a beauty contest.

In order to become a Miss Morena Zacatecas, here are the requisites: "beauty of face and body," single, between 18 and 25 years old and a minimum height of 1.65 meters.

PT's party leader David Monreal (brother of Senator Ricardo Monreal), who is, as it were, under investigation from the state congress for not accounting for 6.5 million pesos in spending as mayor of Fresnillo, said,

"We hope that many zacatecanas participate. The main purpose is to change our country. We want to stop the social, economic and political deterioration."

I'd say the PT is engaging in a bit of social deterioration itself. Could the party, if it tried, appear any more sexist and shallow?

Gregorio Sánchez, essentially free

It was the first time one had ever been used in Mexico, and now ex-mayor of Cancún, Gregorio Sánchez can remove the electronic bracelet he's been wearing for the past couple of weeks. The case against him is still on, yet he is now free to go wherever he wants - before, he was limited to an area in Mexico City.

To boot: Sánchez had also been complaining that the incessant beeping from the bracelet, which apparently was low on batteries and possibly not even working, kept him awake at night...

Notably, Sánchez said he will not return to politics, but dedicate himself to business. Will it perhaps be in the tele-evangelical business? He has long been an evangelical pastor and has been emphasizing this identity while in prison, insisting on more than occasion that god speaks through him, appearing with his similarly white-dressed followers with a bible under his arm.

While we're still awaiting the final dropping of the case against Greg, it seems to me this is about as close to the end as we have ever been. It has been a thorough embarrassment for many, and not only the Attorney General (PGR), and many can't wait to put this whole debacle behind them.

Vicente Fox calls for truce with drug gangs

The reactions to the abominable attack in Monterrey, which Calderón understandably refers to as a terrorist act - what else is one to call a targeted attack on civilians, timed to inflict as many deaths as possible? - have of course been condemned by the national and international community, though former president Vicente Fox used the occasion to call for a "truce" with the drug gangs.

Long a proponent of legalization of drugs (though notably not while he was president), as far as I can see this is the first time Fox has made such a declaration, which certainly goes against the grain of other official declarations.

Alejandro Poiré of Mexico´s National Security Council immediately rejected the suggestion of a truce.

TEPJF orders the PRD to renew its national organs

Following a complaint by Carlos Sotelo, elected as PRD senator in 2006, the Electoral Tribunal (TEPJF) ordered the PRD to renew its organs - national congress, national council, and state councils - by Dec. 15.

The PRD sought to postpone the renovation of its national organs in particular, and this might also lead to the cancellation of all its recent decisions in its national congress and council, which would be a great setback to the party. Sotelo, however, is gloating - he opposes the party´s recent decisions such as to hold a national poll to decide the party's 2012 presidential candidate. A further consequence may also be to make invalid and cancel the party's internal election for party president, and leave the party without a national leadership - this, ahead of the crucial gubernatorial election in Michoacán in November.

With such members sabotaging their own party - who needs external enemies?

Coahuila debt scam to be invesitigated by Mexico's attorney general

PAN is not letting go of the debt and apparent document falsification scandal in Coahuila: PAN's presidential hopeful Ernesto Cordero said yesterday that the Mexican Attorney General's office (Procuraduría General de la República, PGR), will launch investigation as well, in addition to other auditing organs, as his finance ministry has sent or will lodge a formal criminal complaint.

Meanwhile, the Confederacion Nacional Campesina (CNC), a PRI corporatist organization, gave its full backing to Moreira

Electoral Tribunal accepts expulsion of Manuel Espino

Mexico's electoral tribunal, TEPJF, voted 4-2 to confirm PAN's expulsion of Manuel Espino from the party. As far as I can see, this is in practice puts an end to this drawn-out process, where Espino - still popular among the most conservative sectors in the party, where he has a certain mass following - has fought tooth and nail against PAN's decision to kick him out of the party for disloyalty to its candidates in the 2010 elections.

Espino has also long expressed his interest in a presidential candidacy, and has his own "movement," Volver a Empezar.

Peña Nieto on Moreira, more

Here's the response of Enrique Peña Nieto to the recent and growing criticism of Humberto Moreira Valdés:

The topic of his state is very distinct and different from what he is responsible for in the party leadership; there (Moreira) has the backing, the support of the national PRI, and obviously, these issues that have been identified, I am certain the leader himself is going to clarify, point out, and be giving explanations."

So while Moreira seemingly contracted an amazing amount of debt and his government sought to cover it up by falsifying documents, that is completely irrelevant to Moreira's work as president of the country's largest party, according to the PRI front runner (!)

So what does he actually think of the specific issue, Coahuila's debt situation, then?
"I have no elements of assessment to discuss what happened in another state."

Hard to come up with a less substantial answer even if one tried. 

Unable to elect leader in Mexico City, PRI appoints Jesús Murillo Karam

Unable to carry out an election for the head of its party branch in Mexico City, national PRI president Humberto Moreira appointed Senatr Murillo Karam the "delegate" or de facto party president instead.

It appears a compromise candidate, of sorts: Murillo Karam has good relations with both Beltrones and Peña Nieto - as well as Beatriz Paredes, PRI´s likely mayoral candidate.

He is, in my opinion, at least one of the more reasonable priístas out there, especially compared with the thugs who control most of the Mexico City party branch.

(Some more background from Proceso here)

Demócratas de Izquierda Web page

Here's the Web page for Demócratas de Izquierdai, or Democrats of the Left, the center-left alliance behind Marcelo Ebrard's candidacy for president in 2012.

It's quite spiffy.

Like brother, like brother: Rubén Moreira's response to Coahuila debt scandal

Humberto Moreira's ingenuous response to the debt scandal of his tenure as governor was essentially to play the victim and try to change the topic, along the lines of: "let's rather talk about the debt we have to the dead in the war against crime."

Now his brother Rubén Moreira, soon-to-be governor of Coahuila himself, offered and equally inane response: The criticism is unwarranted because it is only "partial" (not comparing to other states), and, mind you, the scandal-ridden Estela de Luz bicentennial monument of the federal government also cost a lot - actually, 10 percent of the Coahuila debt, he informs. So there you have it!

Thankfully, today El Universal does indeed avoid "partial" criticism by duly comparing the debt of other states: Coahuila's debt is four times the national average. That's right, 4 times:

11,633 pesos vs. national average of 2819 pesos per inhabitant. No state is even close to Coahuila's figures.
Still "partial criticism"?

(Here is a great graphic of the most indebted states, according to Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI))

More scandal in Coahuila: Did Moreira hold back funds for security?

More trouble still: Ex-Governor Humberto Moreira Valdés of Coahuila was now also denounced by the Secretariado Ejecutivo del Sistema Nacional de Seguridad Pública (SESNSP), an organ of the Interior Ministry, to the Superior Auditor for allegedly having held back federal funds for security destined for several Coahuila mayors.

The mayors of Torreón, Acuña and Monclova denied yesterday that they had ever complained of this, though according to SESNSP they had earlier complained of just that.

Esthela Damián, PRD federal deputy and head of the chamber's  Comisión de Vigilancia de la Auditoría Superior de la Federación is demanding an extraordinary audit. The head of PRI's parliamentary group Francisco Rojas said the Moreira's opponents were "putting together a barrage of attacks with half-truths," not exactly a forceful response.

Even the influential Joaquín López-Dóriga, ever close to power and usually well in the know, asks in today's column, entitled "Falsifying Documents," "How will everyone come out of this?"

26 mayors murdered in three years

Twenty-six mayors were murdered in the past three years in Mexico.
Here's a graphic from El Universal that details who they were, and where it happened.

Quintana Roo: PRI governor left with a 600 percent increase in debt

The PRI's Roberto Borge Angulo won the 2010 gubernatorial elections in Quintana Roo, and given the explosion of the state's debt under the previous government, it should hardly be a surprise: Félix González Canto, the former governor, left the state with a debt 600 percent higher than when he came to power in 2005.

(González Canto, to recall, is the one with a just extraordinary luck in state lotteries)

According to PAN, who is conducting an investigation in the local legislature, most of the debt stems from a massive expansion of the state bureaucracy. The known debt so far went from 1.2 to 8 billion pesos.

A most pathetic defense from Humberto Moreira

Humberto Moreira Valdés, president of Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI), is in stormy weather not only due to the explosion of debt during his term as governor of Coahuila, but also for his government seemingly falsifying documents to creditors and as well the federal government. Gustavo Madero, head of Partido Acción Nacional (PAN), has in particular been on the offensive here, demanding that Moreira explain these irregularities.

Yet what has been Moreira's response? He attacked the "perverse campaign" against him, and  launched a challenge to PAN: If you want to talk about the debt, then let's also talk about the debt to the dead in the fight against organized crime."

What on earth is the connection here? If this illogical,  non-nonsensical rubbish is all what Moreira can come up with, he might be in serious trouble.

Also: Enrique Peña Nieto jumped to Moreira's offense, of sorts, claiming that the debt issue had been "politicized." Well of course it has! If a governor leaves office with an incredible amount of debt accumulated, some possibly even illegally, and then heads the country's biggest party, how can it not be "politicized"?

A great read: Malcolm Beith's The Last Narco

For those who haven't yet - and I've meant to for a long time, but my must-read stack is skyrocketing and I am also writing my own book - I highly Malcolm Beith's The Last Narco, centered on "El Chapo" Guzmán, but touching upon the most relevant aspects and recent developments of the so-called "drug war" in Mexico. I will, in fact, assign it for my students, who I am sure will enjoy it as much as I did.

Calderón, lame duck by the figures: No law approved since last November

An interesting article in Milenio well worth a read, as it not only details how Calderón by the figures has become pretty much a lame duck, but also how much more successful Fox was in at least the number of proposals passed in congress:

* Last time the Mexican Congress voted over an initiative from Calderón was November 2010
* 30 proposals are stalled, including major initiatives such as the Unified Command of the police; the National Security Law; the Reform of the State initiative; the anti-money laundering bill; and many more.

Calderón is a lame duck and knows it: Only five proposals have been submitted in 2011.

PRD's national congress votes in favor of poll to decide 2012 candidate

The PRD's 13th National Congress - the party's highest organ - is currently in session, and voted late yesterday 729-78 in favor of an open poll to decide the party's 2012 presidential candidate. Surprisingly, the IDN party faction close to AMLO also agreed to the poll, representing a sharp about-face following a new command from AMLO to accept it.

(La Jornada's coverage of the vote and the congress is simply a joke: I cannot remember having seen any piece surpassing journalist Roberto Garduño's coverage in terms of confusing journalism with open editorializing, where straight reporting is pushed aside for snarky, snide, simplistic sarcasm.)

Mexico: 80 percent of murders in 162 municipalities

Here's an excellent graphic from an accompanying article in El Universal, detailing not only where most of the murders happen, but also what internal cartel wars they are largely a product of:

(Click here for high-resolution PDF).

The vast majority of deaths are the result of fights between the Sinaloa cartel and its rivals.

PRI president Moreira in trouble: Coahuila debt scandal expands

I've written on the Coahuila's massively expanded debt under ex-governor Humberto Moreira Valdés, now PRI president, before (e.g. here and here). As it stands, the current debt is 32 billion pesos - up from only 200 million  when Moreira took office. The figures are shocking in themselves, yet now a new scandal is brewing that speaks of clear illegalities: that the Moreira government falsified documents given to its creditors where it pretended the state congress had approved of the contraction of new loans.

These are really serious offenses, and might land Moreira in trouble. Already there are reports that Enrique Peña Nieto, 2012 front runner, is quietly distancing himself from his own party president. One particularly recommended read is today's column by Jorge Zepeda Patterson in El Universal, where he outlines how Moreira has even been removed as head of important negotiations, such as Beatriz Paredes taking over talks with the ministry of finance over financial transfers to the states.

Watch for this growing scandal, and whether the two "golden boys" of the misnamed "new PRI" will be able to ride it off.

A good overview of Josefina Vázquez Mota in The Economist

The Economist has a nice overview of Josefina Vázquez Mota, who might be PAN's presidential candidate in 2012 here.

PRD: Never boring

Yet another reminder why studying the Mexican political party PRD is never boring. From Milenio:

The PRD will be obliged to keep its composure during its conference on Saturday, but not because its former moral leader Cuauhtemoc Cardenas or presidential candidates Andrés Manuel López Obrador and Marcelo Ebrard ordered it. No. The warning came from the administration of World Trade Center, where the PRD rented a hall for the first time on the condition that even during the heat of the discussions, no chairs may be used as a projectile.

I wouldn't count on it.

PT Mayor kidnapped in Mexico State, likely by narco

José Eduviges Nava, municipal president of Zacualpan, Mexico State, for the Workers Party (PT) was kidnapped Friday. His bodyguard was killed.

He had apparently received threats from La Familia Michoacana at earlier occasions.

AMLO's "yes, but.." to candidacy poll: Complete nonsense

AMLO seemingly agreed to a poll that would decide whether he or Marcelo Ebrard will be the left's 2012 presidential candidate, but with a major catch: The poll can not include any PRI or PAN sympathizers.

Having an open poll would of course demonstrate which candidate can move beyond the party base to actually reach into other voting groups, whether belonging to other parties or not. But AMLO doesn't want this - and heavens knows how he wants to make a poll that presorts the actual respondents.

In my opinion: This is just pure trickery, as AMLO will not accept any result where he does not come out on top-

PRD's party membership: 1.8 million members

PRD handed over to IFE its updated padrón or party membership rolls, which is essentially completely new: The party ditched its old membership base and initiated in May 2010 a new campaign where members had to reaffirm their membership. The old base was 7 million strong, but contained many errors.

The PRD's membership now stands at 1,795,851 million members - of which nearly 1.2 million are new.

Organización Política Nacional de los Trabajadores: New umbrella labor federation

The Organización Política Nacional de los Trabajadores (OPNT) is a new loosely-knit labor federation, of sorts, headed by the Mexican electricians union SME. It will hold its constitutive assembly Aug. 27-28, and will seemingly incorporate 40 different organizations, though it appears it will be built around the SME.

The new organization does not have yet a head, and it is not clear whom it will support electorally in 2012, though PAN is already excluded. Should Martin Esparza of SME become its leader, on can expect much horsetrading with the PRI and PRD.

AMLO demands from PRD candidacies and 1/3 of Mexico's electoral districts

Recently, the PRD asked its former presidential candidateAndrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) to appear in a few "spots" or campaign ads for the party, together with party founder Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas and Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard, in a display of "unity." AMLO then responded that he would do so only if the PRD would give him a big chunk of its government-allotted airtime (radio and TV) for him to use for his own electoral movement, Movimiento de Regeneración Nacional (MORENA).

Then, just days after appearing in a front-page interview in La Jornada again hurling accusations of treason against the PRD, AMLO dropped another bomb: In order for MORENA to join the PRD in a coalition in 2012, he demands that the party give his movement complete control of the electoral organization in 100 out of Mexico's 300 districts, the control of 11 state party branches, as well as an unknown number of candidacies.

As might be expected, given that AMLO in practice is asking the PRD, a 22-year old party, to simply hand over the control to a recently created and unknown entity, the party isn't exactly running to accept the proposal. Party president Jesús Zambrano was quite diplomatic:

it is very difficult that one just hand over complete districts with complete structures. The PRD exists in the 300 constituencies. It is the biggest party of the Mexican left. A party is not built overnight and it is hard to think that the PRD will give MORENA a district and that its complete district representation just disappear. 

This is really like watching a slow-motion car crash, repeated as farce: It is exactly what happened in 2006, when AMLO's wholly unreliable Redes Ciudadanas took over control of voting station representation from the PRD in many districts, and did an extremely poor job at it.

AMLO to U.S. in October

AMLO is coming to the United States, apparently on Oct. 8 (duration of visit unknown), where he will visit what appears to be Chicago, DC, New York, and somewhere in Massachusetts.

Despite promising large outdoor rallies, this is not a campaign event, mind you - that would be illegal at this state, but simply about him presenting his Proyecto Alternativo de Nación. 

Is Enrique Peña Nieto moving from Salinas to Zedillo?

Much has been written of the close relations between likely PRI presidential contender Enrique Peña Nieto and former president Carlos Salinas de Gortari. A quite interesting investigation in two parts (here and here) by Jenaro Villamil offers much circumstantial evidence that Peña Nieto is actually moving away from the Salinas camp to that of former president Ernesto Zedillo, where a lot of advisers, political connections, businessmen etc connected to the last PRI president (94-2000) have seemingly established ever closer relations with the outgoing governor, to the detriment of people connected to the Salinas group.

Has Peña Nieto finally realized how potentially toxic his relations with the discredited former president may be in a general election? Or, that Zedillo's policies and programs are closer to his heart than those of Salinas?

Unable to hold election, PRI appoints party head in Mexico City

Given that its attempt at an internal election was deemed invalid by the Federal district electoral court, the PRI announced it would appoint a delegate to head the Mexico City branch of the party, without a president for years, and dominated by Cuauhtémoc Gutiérrez de la Torre, the "King of Garbage" in Mexico City.

This could endanger PRI´s ability to present its own candidate for Mexico City mayor, though the Green Party, PRI's electoral allies, has already offered their registry to Beatriz Paredes Rangel, should she decide to run, though one can rest assure they will demand plenty in return.

It is up to Mexico City voters whether they will actually will vote for a candidate whose party is not even capable of holding a democratic election for the head of its own party branch.

Did Gregorio "Greg" Sánchez meet twice with El Chapo?

The story of Gregorio "Greg" Sánchez is getting ever more bizarre. Now, the Mexican Procuraduría General de la República or Attorney general's office claims that the former Cancún mayor and PRD gubernatorial candidate of Quintana Roo actually met with drug kingpin El Chapo Guzmán, and even on two occasions to boot. PGR says it has evidence of this, and a "protected witness" claims that Greg received copious amounts of money.

Lest we forget, he has in the past as well been accused of consorting with 1) the Beltrán Leyva brothers, 2) the Zetas, and now 3) El Chapo, implying either utter stupidity or a suicidal death wish.

Until the PGR coughs up the evidence, I take this with a pail of salt, no less.

More on Antorcha Campesina, a movement of terror

El Universal has an exceptionally interesting background article on Movimiento Antorchista in their Monday paper, tracking the roots and the extent of this organization, which appears a paramilitary organization of terror more than anything else. I did not know, for instance, that it was Raúl Salinas de Gortari, brother of the hugely discredited President Carlos Salinas, who in particular tied the Antorchistas to the PRI in the late 1980s. The organization remains exceptionally close to outgoing Mexico State Governor Enrique Peña Nieto, the face of the so-called "new PRI."

Gay wedding No. 1000 in Mexico City

Mexican national José Carlos Gómez and the Dutch Tjarda Olaf Helias became the 1000th gay couple to legally wed in Mexico City.

I don't know about yours, but neither one of those thousand has made my own marriage feel threatened in the slightest.

Mexico 2012 Poll Numbers

Be sure to check out El Universal's newest Buendía & Laredo poll on likely 2012 contenders here.

As expected, Enrique Peña Nieto way ahead, and wins every line-up, though at 48 percent he is down 4 percent from May.

AMLO´s World: A highly recommended interview

Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) made an interview with La Jornada that I highly recommend to be read in it entirety. This is AMLO´s world, and AMLO at his worst:  Absolute no self-criticism for anything he has done; blaming everyone else for his problems; playing the victim beyond the point of absurdity; and a frightening authoritarian and Manichean view of politics, where those who don't agree with him are either, on the left, "traitors" for not obeying his commands, or, for everyone else, belonging to the "Power mafia."

Among the most inane statements: He launched his absurd "Legitimate presidency" because he knew that the PRD would "turn their back on us." After having incurred millions in fines for its encampments and demonstrations on behalf of AMLO throughout the summer and fall of 2006, the PRD finally realized they could not continue like this for the entire six-year presidency of Calderón.

Yet in AMLO's world, the fact that the party dared to disagree with his strategy and not follow every command of his, makes them "traitors." Now, following the growth of his MORENA movement, which in October will officially become a "Political Association," AMLO feels vindicated, and lets it show.

Why Silvano Aureoles and the PRD may win in Michoacán

Here are what seems to me to be two very important factors why Silvano Aureoles may still pull off a win in Michoacán in November: As opposed to in 2007, when only Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas campaigned for Leonel Godoy, Senator Aureoles is backed by AMLO and his Morena movement, as witnessed by their common appearance this Friday. Then, on Sunday Cárdenas as well appeared together with Aureoles.

Given the continued popularity of Cárdenas and AMLO with much of the party base, at the very least this will likely drive up turnout, and help Aureoles secure his victory in what will be in any event an extraordinary and quite likely tight race.

PRI's ugly face in Mexico City: Cuauhtémoc Gutiérrez de la Torre, King of Garbage

Milenio refers to him as "possibly the most feared priísta in the capital." He is Cuauhtémoc Gutiérrez de la Torre, also known as the King of Garbage in Mexico City, a title and position he inherited from his murdered father, Rafael Gutiérrez Moreno. Now he wants to be president of the Mexico City branch of the PRI, where his group is the main rival of PRI Senator María de los Ángeles Moreno. Gutiérrez has mala fama for being extremely violent, and is fittingly close to local PRI deputy Cristián Vargas, the infamous Dipuhooligan of the Mexico City local legislature, involved in numerous violent events and disturbances, not to speak of threats and hate speech against e.g. the gay community.

Back to Gutiérrez (picture below): He, and his mother, control a large group of pepenadores, or those of extreme poverty who eke out a living by sifting through and collecting garbage, and has vigorously fought against the implementation of a more modern garbage collection system in Mexico City. The pepenadores are held down and controlled by a brutal and exploitative mafia. Gutiérrez has personally faced a plethora of accusations, including that he hired 20 female assistants and demanded sexual favors in return for pay raises. Thanks to his own personal fortune, he has been able to buy quite a bit of support and moreover bankroll the PRI in Mexico City.

From Milenio     

Gutiérrez´ plans to become head of the PRI in Mexico City faced a temporary setback when the Federal District Electoral Tribunal cancelled the PRI's convocation for the internal election (registration of candidates), arguing procedural errors. The motion was backed by Juan Carlos Vázquez, Gutiérrez main opponent, and the candidate of Senator Moreno.

It certainly will be in the PRD's interest that Gutiérrez eventually win the contest: It is hard to imagine a more discredited, repugnant public face of the PRI for the 2012 election for mayor, which would likely severely damage a Beatriz Paredes Rangel candidacy, should she run.

Movimiento Antorcha Campesina: Very far from a "social movement"

Recently, Milenio reported that the Antorcha Campesina, or the "Torch of the Peasant," has in 2011 carried out twice the number of demonstrations than in 2011, so far totaling 265. More than 300,000 persons have participated in the marches, which have created chaos in the streets of Mexico City - despite the organization hailing from Mexico State. Some of the demonstrations have turned into week-long encampments in central parts of the city.

What do they want? Ostensibly, funds from the federal government for the development of their communities, though they often target institutions and buildings of Mexico City. Beyond what are pretty much blackmail techniques - give us money, or we'll create chaos - the organization has also on occasions been highly prone to violence, and has since its murky origins in the 1970s as a quite paramilitary organization, been absolutely controlled by the PRI. The Mexico State branch of PRI has now increasingly used the Antorcha as shock troops to embarrass both the current and past PRD administrations of Mexico City, as well as the federal PAN government (see a useful graphic below for a comparison 2010-11), rallying thousands of participants through clientelist means, and then sending them off in hundreds of buses  to DF. As a thank-you from the PRI-led Mexico State government, they are allowed to run a scheme of thousands of pirate taxis in particular in the municipalities in the Valle de México in that state.

(in June 2009, in the Azteca stadium, when the Antorcha celebrated its 35th anniversary, the main person of the event was Enrique Peña Nieto. They also operate in many other states, though always against PAN and PRD governments.)

This is an absolute perversion and abuse of the mechanisms of popular demonstrations that under the guise of "freedom of expression" essentially terrorizes a big part of the city's population. Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard has been cautious toward the organization, likely not to provoke any further chaos, given the almost limitless right of Mexicans to hold demonstrations, even when it seriously affects a great number of people negatively. PAN has recently urged the law to be changed, in order to regulate the marches, which to me seems a fair demand: There simply must be some kind of balance between an organizations right to demonstrate vs. shutting parts of an entire city down - as indeed other democracies maintain.

AMLO disqualifies new head of Mexico's Electoral Tribunal

Mexico's federal electoral tribunal, TEPJF, may have a new president in Alejandro Luna Ramos, but Andrés Manuel López Obrador already has disqualified him as belonging to the "power mafia," and that he will thus not serve to guarantee impartiality in the 2012 elections.

Disqualifying the Electoral Tribunal even before the 2012 contest has officially begun certainly is not a promising sign.

TEPJF president Luna Ramos is the only remaining judge on the tribunal from the 2006 presidential election, which AMLO continues to claim, with no evidence, was fraudulent. TEPJF voted unanimously to declare Felipe Calderón the winner in 2006, though it did acknowledge many irregularities.

A recent article in Proceso by Álvaro Delgado, which is highly critical of Luna Ramos, is also worth a read, even if a tad tendentious.

A defeat for Elba Esther Gordillo in Oaxaca: Piñeyro is out

After much pressure, governor Gabino Cué of Oaxaca fired his Government Secretary, essentially his second-in-command, Irma Piñeyro Arias. A former gubernatorial candidate for the PANAL party who dropped out in favor of Cué, she is an ally of the powerful SNTE head Elba Esther Gordillo. Her resignation is as such a defeat for Gordillo, and a victory in particular for the "dissident" wing of SNTE in Oaxaca, Section 22, which has long demanded her resignation. New Government secretary is Jesús Martínez Álvarez, who was notably governor briefly in the mid-1980s.

New surprise head of Mexico's Electoral Tribunal: Alejandro Luna Ramos

Alejandro Luna Ramos was elected, by oral vote by his fellow peers, as the new head of Mexico's Federal Electoral Tribunal, Tribunal Electoral del Poder Judicial de la Federación (TEPJF), by 5 out of 7 magistrates (His sister, Margarita Beatriz Luna Ramos, is a Supreme Court judge).

Outgoing TEPJF president María del Carmen Alanís, failed to achieve her reelection. Not only that; in a quite shocker vote, her reelection was backed by only one vote: her own. She has been considered by many to be a tad too friendly to the PRI. Relations have been at times quite acrimonious between Alanís and the other TEPJF members. As far as 2012 goes, a broader consensus for the new head of Mexico's highest electoral court can only be a positive thing.

Michoacán: Government Secretary says reconcile with drug gangs

A quite notable lack of harmony from the Michoacán state government: The Government Secretary, Rafael Melgoza, suggested that the drug gangs should "reconcile" with the people and community.

Also these people who are engaged in this illegal activity have to reconcile, it sounds bad to express this phrase, but they need to reconcile, they must reconcile these illegal activities that they perform  with the interests of peoples and communities."

Shortly thereafter, the state government, led by Leonel Godoy, sent out a press bulletin distancing itself from what was said by its Government Secretary, essentially the second in command of the state government.

Mexican political parties: They've cost 37 billion pesos since 2000.

Since the coming of democracy in Mexico in 2000, the costs to Mexican taxpayers of financing the country's political parties have been close to 37 billion pesos, Centro de Documentación, Información y Análisis of the Mexican congress reports.

* In this period, nine parties disappeared, despite receiving 1.9 billion pesos in subsidies
* PAN has received around 10, the same as PRI, while PRD has received 5.7 billion.

However, minor parties receive a disproportionately high amount: The Green Party, which has absolutely nothing to do with environmentalism but is a franchise party at the service of the highest bidder, has received over 3 billion pesos. PT: 2.5 billion pesos, and Convergencia 2.2. PANAL of Elba Esther Gordillo received almost 1.2 billion pesos, despite existing only since 2006.

It seems to me the state subsidy to parties is in quite a few cases perverted by minor parties who are in it primarily for one reason: To get their hands on this money. This is about as far away from the original goal as possible, namely to further democracy by ensuring a plurality of party options. I strongly support state subsidies of parties, but this is undermining the entire practice.

State level changes 2008-2010 show rising poverty in PRI states

Here's a graphic from Milenio that shows 1) the  number of social program beneficiaries (Oportunidades, 70 y más, Empleo temporal and Liconsa), a proxy for the number of poor, 2) the percentage of poverty in the poorest states, and the most interesting, 3) the change in poverty rates from the crisis in 2008 until 2010 - not all states had more poor, but those run by the PRI tend to have the worst numbers, with exception of PAN-run Guanajuato. See graphic:

Oportunidades spending doubled under Calderón

Amidst all the talk of rising poverty figures in Mexico, here's one case where I think Calderón deserves credit:

The highly successful conditional cash-transfer program Oportunidades saw its budget double from 2005 to 2011 - it jumped from 28 billion to 57 billion pesos. This is truly impressive.

While no magic bullet to end poverty, Oportunidades has proven vastly succesful in terms of enrolling more children in school, making sure they stay there, and improving nutrition for infants and children, among other gains.In Mexico it now covers almost 6 million households, or 29 million people. Most live on the countryside,  and not in the big cities.

There is a reason why this has been copied by so many other countries, most famously in Brazil's Bolsa Familia.

Graphic from El Universal of its component parts:

The cost of Mexico's 2012 election: 16 billion pesos. Church weighs in.

Mexico's federal electoral institute (IFE) has requested almost 16 billion pesos for the 2012 presidential election. This whopping sim is particularly notable as the 2007-08 electoral reform had as one of its main goals to reduce the cost of elections, principally due to only allowing parties to contract tv/radio advertisements through slots allotted to them by IFE, rather than purchasing themselves at a massive cost.

Head of IFE Leonardo Valdés defended the cost - 30 percent higher than in 2006 - as a  product of IFE's new functions that include, among others, much more expanded media monitoring, but also due to increased insecurity as a product of the fight with and between drug gangs. He also insists  that the institute is ready for 2012, though public approval of - and faith in - IFE has been dropping notably in recent months.

Some of this may be attributed to the Catholic church, which demanded that the institute be a representative of citizens and not of parties, while it denounced the IFE's rising operating costs. The church also attacked the "restrictive laws" of 2007 that it claims restrict freedom of expression, even though it was not passed by IFE but by Congress and IFE merely has to follow the new legislation. It also conspicuously made no mention of the recent IFE/TEPJF verdict that the Archdiocese broke the law in its attack on the PRD.

One of church's points is well taken, though: It criticized the lack of autonomy of state electoral institutes and their ease of manipulation vis-a-vis state governors. This is truly an increasing problem that was noted by several of IFE's councilors I interviewed last summer.

Internal PRI documents: Enrique Peña Nieto already has 90,000 operators

Internal PRI documents leaked to Milenio suggest that outgoing Mexico State Governor Enrique Peña Nieto already has, through the network Fuerza Mexiquense, more than 90,000 "political operators" around Mexico ready to promote his highly likely PRI presidential candidacy.

The  Fuerza Mexiquense grew threefold in 2010-11, and played key roles in particularly the elections of Veracruz, Quintana Roo and Nayarit, and above all Yucatán, essentially taking over Ivonne Ortega's campaign.

Followers of Mexican politics may recall that Fuerza Mexiquense is not, however, the creation of Peña Nieto , but was rather set up by former PRI governor Arturo Montiel, who lost the 2006 PRI nomination due to the massive corruption scandals of his government. Peña Nieto, to be sure, has done absolutely nothing to investigate Montiel, his political mentor.

Now, Peña Nieto's expansion of Montiel's Fuerza Mexiquense is merely yet another telltale sign that rather than representing anything "new," Peña Nieto represents continuity rather than any rupture with the "old" PRI.

PRD pays off debt from 2006 encampments

It took the Partido de la Revolución Democrática (PRD) five years to pay off the debt the party incurred when following the exhortations of its 2006 presidential candidate to "defend" his claimed victory by setting up a huge Mexico City encampment, as well as storming the congressional dais at several locations, actions for which the PRD was fined 52 million pesos.

The PRD was left with a crippling debt thanks to this as well as a massive debt contracted by former party president Rosario Robles, which ascended to 713 million pesos by 2008. Under party president Jesús Ortega (2008-11), it drastically reduced its debt, now down to 257. The PRD also sold off a building bought by Robles (with a loss - it was uninhabitable, an a monument over Robles's disastrous party presidency), and will now move back to its historic location on Insurgentes/Monterrey 50.

IFE gave the party a 94.4 out of 100 for transparency in its expense accounts - compared to 58.3 for the PRI.

AMLO's 5-year head start: 170,000 political operators

Given AMLO's propensity for exaggeration, these figures should be taken with a pinch of salt, but given his 5-year head start - AMLO already in 2006 started the work of setting up the structure for the 2012 election - they appear accurate: His MORENA movement claims to have 34,000 electoral committees in the country, with a total of 170,000 political operators. In addition, AMLO has the support of the IDN faction of PRD, which overlaps with the "Movement for Hope" (MNE) of the discredited René Bejarano-Dolores Padierna couple.

AMLO's movement/electoral structure in turn builds on the Redes Ciudadanas, or "Citizen Networks" that operated in parallel to the three parties of his 2006 coalition.

Carlos Fuentes' presidential endorsement appreciated

It was an endorsement Marcelo Ebrard said he was very happy with: Carlos Fuentes said he preferred him to be the left's candidate in 2012, even when measured up against non-party candidates such as Juan Ramón de la Fuente.

For his part, AMLO minimized the endorsement.

Marcelo Ebrard's new girlfriend

Gossip, yes, but everything is political: Rosalinda Bueso might be Mexico's first lady, and as such is well worth a profile: She is the former Honduran ambassador to Mexico, and when some members of her own embassy who backed the 2009 coup in Honduras tried to keep her out from the embassy, Ebrard sent city police to back her. She remained in Mexico City after her appointment ended and now, six months after Ebrard confirmed he would divorce Mariagna Prats, she is officially appearing as his pareja sentimental.h 

This one is for the historians: When was the last time Mexico had a foreign first lady?

Here is a photo, courtesy of El Universal

Michoacán politics: There is no such thing as a coincidence

A few days ago, his sister won the internal party primary to be PAN´s gubernatorial candidate in Michoacán.
Today, President Felipe Calderón just happened to start a two-day tour of the state, visiting five major municipalities, including the capital of Morelia. All a coincidence, to be sure.

Michoacán: PAN at its worst

There is something truly repugnant about virtually every step the PAN has taken in Michoacàn ahead of the November gubernatorial election.

As is known by know, the president's sister,  Luisa María Calderón Hinojosa, became the PAN's candidate for governor. Nothing illegal, though it bears notice that the pact she made with her brother and other member of the Calderón family in 2006 to NOT seek any elected office while Felipe was president, was just a lie. Shocker.

Yet now, Marko Cortés Mendoza, the losing candidate in PAN´s primary, has just been given the consolation price of becoming PAN´s mayoral candidate in Morelia. First, I think it tells you a bit of his character that he even threatened to leave the PAN and run for another party should he not get some kind of reward. A pure opportunist - I think the morelianos deserve someone with a bit more principles. But it gets worse: Marko - he goes by his first name in the state - was directly appointed candidate centrally by the PAN, reminiscent of the worst dedazos of the PRI regime. This does not please local deputy Alfonso Martínez, who has been campaigning long and hard for the nomination, yet simply received news that any primary is cancelled.

And worse it gets: Despite all the dirty laundry aired in public, and quite a bit of mudslinging, regarding the PANAL party of  Elba Esther Gordillo, based on her iron grip of the SNTE teachers union, and despite declarations from PAN it would not stoop again to the low of allying with Gordillo, the PAN in Michoacàn did just that.

I hope Michoacán makes a wise electoral choice on the coming Nov. 13.

AMLO's Santa Ana reference

Among the various themes that AMLO constantly repeats in his campaign appearances is that a return of the PRI to the Mexican presidency will be equivalent to the return of 19th-century dictator Santa Ana.

Beyond my basic concurrence that the return of the PRI will likely be a very negative development for Mexico's democracy, a question: 

If PRI's return is like Santa Ana's - then how can at the same time PRI and PAN be "all the same," as he constantly repeats? And why, then, his ardent opposition to PRD-PAN state-level electoral alliances that sought to prevent PRI's return? 

AMLO's media coordinator César Yáñez, who still owes the AMLO interview he promised me, may send a reply to aguachileblogger@gmail.com

Partido Convergencia, 1999-2011

The Partido Convergencia ceased to exist yesterday, at least by that designation:

It changed its name to Movimiento Ciudadano, took AMLO's eagle for its party logo, dissolved its national executive committee, and converted its party president into a "national coordinator." It also opened up 50 percent of its candidacies to non-party members, or "citizens."

It has essentially remained the personal outfit of former PRI governor Dante Delgado Rannauro, who created the party as a means to return be governor of Veracruz, but after 2006, when its registry was in clear danger, threw his lot with AMLO and the party drastically "radicalized," despite being very non-programmatic and even center-right in most of its previous pronouncements, when it also often allied with PRI and PAN on the state level. It has a handful of senators yet saw its number of deputies reduced in half in 2009, when it competed on its own list rather than on a common one with the PRD, and is close to electoral extinction .

Hence,  Movimiento Ciudadano.

Display of strength for Ebrard, as the "movement" mobilizes for AMLO

The unofficial launch of Marcelo Ebrard's campaign took place yesterday, as the Demócratas de Izquierda, or the Democrats of the Left, arranged an event attended by more than 2,500 people that included the governors of Sinaloa and Guerrero, as well as as a range of backers and politicians, many from outside the PRD.

Ebrard proclaimed in very general terms the contours of his national plan, but was at pains to explain it was not a campaign launch- which of course it was.  Notably, he also appeared to call for some variant of parliamentarism - or "to separate the chief of state from chief of government" - which to me is an absolutely marvelous idea, as long as it does not end in a semi-presidential regime.

What a perfect illustration of the two paths for the left to follow: On the one hand, Ebrard and the coalition of social-democratic party factions in the Demócratas - and on the other, the highly discredited René Bejarano and his clientelistic "movement," who after holding meetings all over Mexico went to Tabasco the same day to back AMLO's electoral project.

Bejarano claims to have more than two million people in his National Movement of Hope, which he offers in order to back AMLO's candidacy (though at the same time confirming that many of them are also members of AMLO's own movement MORENA).

His wife, Dolores Padierna, is head of the IDN party faction of the PRD - involved in virtually every one of PRD's scandals the past decade - which backs AMLO. She is, to add, the secretary general of the PRD, while party president Jesús Zambrano is the president of the party - and attended Ebrard's event.

The two paths for the Mexican left have never appeared more clear.

Cocoa's the one: President Calderón's sister wins party primary in Michoacán

Luisa María Calderón Hinojosa, "Cocoa," won PAN's primary election in Michoacán to be the party's gubernatorial candidate, with 58 percent of the 25,757 votes cast. Her opponent, Senator Marko Cortés Mendoza, has accepted the defeat - despite some alarmist suggestions that he would cause quite a bit of mayhem and claim a fraud.

Quite the contrary - Cortés said he would fully back Cocoa. His loss is also a defeat for Santiago Creel, who openly backed his aspirations against those of the president's sister.

With her candidacy, the November Michoacán election looks even more set to be a completely open three-way race. Quite likely, PRI and PRD will denounce "nepotism," and accuse Calderón, fairly or not, of intervening in the local election.

Clearly she has every right to participate. But voters should also bear in mind that she is also a woman who does not stick to her word:  She is openly breaking an earlier agreement from 2006 that no family member would be in the public as long as Felipe was president. That was then; this is now - but it was clearly a lie.

PRI has said that a victory Michoacán is essential for the party on its path to 2012: Its leader said he will literally not leave the state until the election.  So it is, of course, for the PRD, as the state might be considered the party's cradle. But finally, also to the PAN, and not only for the above: It won its first municipal president (Quiroga), first local deputy, and first national deputy there, eons ago.

This will be a very dramatic - and competitive - affair.