Soriana vote buying reaches international media

Sorianagate (what else) won't go away, and AMLO et al are doing their part, appearing at a press conference in front of a wall plastered with many of the 3,500 Soriana cards the left coalition said it had received the past days:

El Universal

Beyond the story itself, where PRI is accused of massive vote-buying through Soriana store gift cars, it is also very interesting to see the media reaction. Take Carlos Marín, a very sharp mind but possibly the most venous of Milenio's columnists - kind of like Jefe Diego of PAN - who completely ridiculed the story immediately after it broke.

Yet quite a few international news media - AP, The Washington Post, etc - and now even IFE has found the accusations serious enough to warrant an investigation and ask Soriana for more information. It makes me wonder: If this is how big-names like Marín are acting before EPN takes power, imagine how they will be after one sexenio. They say jump and you say how high.

CNN also reported on the very venerable Alianza Cívica, of fame as election observers during Mexico's democratic transition, which for this election found, against IFE's rather rose-tinted lenses, there were indeed many irregularities includingvote coercion. We'll see if AMLO's coalition can come up with something tangible for their complaint to the TEPJF electoral court, though I strongly doubt there is any risk of annulling the election.

In any case: Given that Mexicans have just about the best sense of political humor in the world, I couldn't help but to include this one:




Sources:

Carlos Marín: Lo de Soriana, otro cuento chino. Milenio, July 4, 2012.
Reports of gift card payments feed growing accusations of vote-buying in Mexico’s election. The Washington Post, July 4, 2012.
Accusations grow of vote-buying Mexico election. Associated Press, July 4, 2012.
Mexico's presidential election tainted by claims of vote buying. The Washington Post, July 5, 2012.
Pide IFE a Soriana datos de tarjetas - Nación - El Universal, July 5, 2012
Exponen 3500 tarjetas Soriana. El Universal, July 6, 2012.

Pundits past their date? CSIS

From George W. Grayson:

The PRD piled up a landslide in the DF, flexed its muscles in gubernatorial matches in Tabasco and Morelos, and boasts two interesting competitors for the presidency in 2018: DF mayor-elect Miguel Ángel Mancera and his predecessor, senator-elect Marcelo Ebrard. 

No, Ebrard is not senator elect - he was not even a candidate. This might seem snarky, but it is a pretty basic fact to get wrong, especially for a paid pundit. CSIS, time for some new wine in new bottles?

Source:
PRI Party Makes a Comeback in Mexico—Why and What's Next? CSIS Commentary, July 2, 2012.

Recount! IFE decision goes far beyond 2006

IFE said it will open around 50,000 - fifty thousand - casillas or ballot boxes, out of a total of 143,114.
While AMLO and his coalition is asking for a full recount now, this is still significant - more than a third of all boxes. Compare this to in 2006, when less than three thousand casillas, from what I recall, were opened.

Is IFE just trying to nip things in the bud, even if it risks making AMLO supporters vindicated?

Even so, AMLO's main complaints have been vote buying and media bias - which a recount, full or partial, will do nothing to substantiate.

Source:
'Voto por voto' en un tercio de la presidencial: IFE. El Universal Online, July 3, 2012.

Carlos Loret de Mola tells three lies

This is quite amazing: Carlos Loret de Mola, columnist of El Universal and a star of Televisa, manages to cram in three lies in just one tiny paragraph:

Yesterday, López Obrador called the Sunday July 1, 2012 process fraudulent, didn't accept the official results.. and said that he won

Whatever you think of AMLO's reluctance to accept Peña Nieto's likely win, this is a complete distortion of what AMLO has actually said:

* He has not called the process fraudulent - he has not used the word at all
* He has not said that he won the election
* And lest we forget, the results that are in are not the official results - these will come after Mexico's 300 districts confirm (or not!) the tally sheets the PREP results were based on, starting tomorrow. Then, if they are confirmed and not enough irregularities were present, they will become official.

Any wonder that AMLO and his allies insist that the media is biased against them?

The composition of Mexicos 2012-15 Congress

A very useful comparison from El Universal: How the Chamber will look from 2012-15, and the Senate from 2012-8, though quite likely there will be a few "switchers" in either house along the way: Link to high-definition pdf file here.



Source:
En el Congreso, el PRI está obligado a negociar. El Universal, July 3, 2012

Mexico's election: The good news

And now for the good new (from the Mexican political left's point of view, that is)

* PRI will not have a majority in the Chamber of Deputies, as many believed.
* PRI will not have a majority in the Senate, as many believed.

Instead, PRD will be the second force in the former, and have a sizable contingent in the second.

* Tabasco will change government hands for the first time in its history: PRD's Arturo Núñez won the governorship.

* Morelos was won by the left for the first time in Mexico's history, with Graco Ramírez. The state is as far as I can recall now the second to have been run by all three parties (the other is Tlaxcala)

* EPN's victory was far from impressive - barely 6% ahead of AMLO, who ran a terrific campaign - in 2009 he campaigned and identified for PT and MC, who won only 5-6% of the vote together. He truly did a remarkable recovery.

* PRD won more than 60 percent in DF - in a four-way race! This is far higher than Cárdenas in 1997, AMLO in 2000, and Ebrard in 2006. The left has clearly shown it can govern a highly complicated and major entity - and do so extremely well.

* The left will be back to being the second largest force in the Chamber of Deputies

* The results are a damning indictment of the political right in Mexico: It lost Jalisco after 18 terrible years of government, barely hung on to Guanajuato, and will be the third force in the Chamber. It was almost completely wiped out in Mexico City, where it lost at least one bastion and may even lose the remaining three.

Calderón will go down in history as the man who returned Los Pinos to PRI - it's a hefty verdict on his mediocre presidency, which saw millions more in poverty. And lest we forget, he was actively helped by the bumbling idiot who happened to end PRI's 71-year reign in the first place, Vicente Fox.

What stinging blows to the party and to the political right.

Today's election - a few thoughts

If vote intention polls mean anything at all - they may not, but we'll know today - PRI will return to the presidency today, and possibly with a large majority in the Chamber of Deputies, and also the Senate.

I truly hope this will not happen.

Many may have read Jorge Castañeda's Don't fear a PRI win in Mexico, which essentially argues that even if PRI has not changed, Mexico's institutions will be able to withstand a return of the old regime.

I don't share the optimism. I truly fear for Mexico's democracy. I may well be wrong and I hope I am, but one doesn't have to look very deeply at Enrique Peña Nieto's trajectory to find a man who represents every one of PRI's vices in the past: Collusion with the media, steamrolling of the opposition, blatant institutional engineering (Ley Peña - why on earth has the media forgotten about this?), cover-up of corruption, mediocre social programs, clientelism, and lest we forget, outright authoritarianism. There is much more, but this is only from the past few years of his Mexico State government. The past days, more and more stuff is simply seeping to the surface.

This is a man who went to Oaxaca in 2010 to actively stump for a murderous repressor and scoundrel, Ulises Ruiz, when he tried to impose his PRI successor, and on whose campaign trail in Puebla had the pedophile-protecting Mario Marín appear at his campaign events.

The editors at The Economist, as expected, endorsed Peña Nieto. Their choice is logical - PAN's candidate is mediocre and represents more mediocrity for Mexico still, and there are serious and legitimate reservations over the democratic credentials of Andrés Manuel López Obrador. Yet it is not only about one man, Peña Nieto - and I hold him in a very low regard - but of a party as well, which has shown absolutely no indication it has changed. I don't think this is demagoguery; there are many good priístas just like there are good people in any party. But a party carries within it an imprint that it is very, very hard to rid itself of. And looking at how PRI and their thugs acted in the 2010 and 2011 state elections, I fear for Mexico's democracy should they return to executive powers, backed by legislative majorities. They won't be easily removed.


A few and rather random observations from the recent days of the campaign:

* A truly pathetic defense of "spoil-the-vote," which will of course benefit the front runner and is not a "neutral" choice - it takes no responsibility for the results either - from Carlos Loret de Mola, can be read here. Read it for the vacuity of its arguments.

* A very tight and well-written argument against spoiling your vote from Jorge Zepeda Patterson here.

* One of the best columns I've read from Joaquín López-Dóriga here. Yes, this is a system man who turns his cape with the wind, but here he makes an excellent argument for truly making a "useful" vote today: Do not vote for the "franchise parties," those tiny ones who care nothing of ideology or programs but only exist to further the business or personal interests of a personality or a family. They are: The PVEM "Green" party, the PANAL of Gordillo, the North Korea-praising PT of Anaya, and the party set up by Delgado to return the ex-priísta to the governorship of Veracruz, Movimiento Ciudadano. This time voters will have a choice: If you want Peña Nieto, you can vote for PRI or PVEM for the legislative list; if you want AMLO you can vote for PRD, PT, or MC. I think his arguments are convincing: Vote for whomever you want, but don't give a vote to the smaller parties.

* Another thing I've really found notable is the bias of newspapers ahead of the election. I used to like Milenio, and enjoy their free Web TV coverage, but the bias toward EPN has been absurd, and in many cases sickly groveling, such as from Carlos Mota. I've essentially stopped reading most of their columnists, who have truly bent over backwards and forwards to praise PRI and badmouth the left, and even their gossip column Transcendió has turned into a propaganda effort. Ya basta - no more Milenio for me.

* El Universal's coverage, as IFE has confirmed, was equitable and excellent. It was always my paper of choice, and has remained so (note: major exception with Ricardo Alemán, who has unfortunately returned as columnist). Reforma is excellent as well, though annoyingly pro-PAN and anti-left, though they make far from a pretense over it, as does Milenio. La Jornada covers many stories others leave out and remains very valuable, but it is so pro AMLO biased (including against his opponents of the left) that its political coverage is often really useless - confusing editorializing for journalism far too often. And enough of the goddamn Castro praising, please.

As for the election, UNAM says the PREP, which shows the results as they are posted from the 431370 boxes - president, senators, deputies - at the voting stations (though these figures have no legal status, as some stations results may be questioned), has been ready for days and will not fail.

IFE says they're ready - and that we will know the results of a "quick count," which is actually a statistical sample, at 23:45 Mexico City time, or 00:45am EST, or 6:45am where I am these days. It'll be a long night. IFE is also very optimistic on the organization, and note that 99.3 percent of ballot boxes have three or more party representatives registered. I doubt this figure will hold, but it bodes well. All I can hope for, next to an elevated vote gain for the left, is that the elections will not be violent.


I predict I will win a bottle of tequila, the likely result of a bet I made at the LASA 2012 conference with a Mexican academic, as I argued Peña Nieto will come first, with AMLO second and PAN third.

I'd be very glad to lose that bet tonight.




Sources:

No al voto nulo. El Universal, June 17, 2012.
Don't fear a PRI win in Mexico. Los Angeles Times, June 22, 2012.
Back to the future. The Economist, June 23, 2012.
El instituto se dice listo para difundir un conteo rápido la noche del domingo. La Jornada, June 25, 2012.
¿Cómo voy a votar? - Opinion - El Universal. El Universal, June 26, 2012.
El verdadero voto útil. Milenio, June 26, 2012.
Mexican media scandal: secretive Televisa unit promoted PRI candidate. The Guardian, June 26, 2012.
El IFE reconoce equidad informativa en contienda. El Universal, June 30, 2012.
El PREP, listo para elección, avala UNAM. El Universal, June 27, 2012.