Final results of Mexico State vote on PRD-PAN alliance

According to Sergio Aguayo, presidente of Propuesta Cívica, co-responsible for arranging this weekend's vote:

* 250, 985 participated
* Of these, 198,217 voted in favor of a PRD-PAn electoral alliance, or close to 79 percent
* 43,008, or 17.2 percent, voted against
* 6,330, or 2.5 percent, voted "I Don't know"
* 3,358, or 1.34 percent, spoiled/invalidated their vote (intentionally or by mistake)

Sure, given Mexico's State population, it may not seem too impressive, but that a quarter of a million bothered to take time to vote in what is not even a party primary, but only a vote on electoral alliances, is still quite noteworthy.

Calderón offered Encinas PAN candidacy, AMLO claims

Yet another odd claim from AMLO: That President Felipe Calderón himself offered Alejandro Encinas to be the candidate of a PAN-PRD alliance. Asked where he got the information from, AMLO answered with the saying, "when I say that the donkey is brown, it's because I have its hairs in my hands," which I take to be, why even ask the question when it so obvious. Why indeed - who needs any substantial evidence when we have AMLO's word?

Pederast Jean Succar Kuri finally sentenced. When will his friend Mario Marín be arrested?

Jean Succar Kuri, a Mexican businessman of Lebanese origin, was convicted to 13 years in prison for pederasty. All nice and well. But when will authorities actually go after his friend and protector, former Puebla Governor Mario Marín? To recall: The scandal that nearly let to Marin's ouster in 2006-2007 involved exactly these very two individuals: Marín and a close associate of Succar, Kamel Nacif, was heard chatting in overtly friendly tones (the famous phrase "Gober Precioso"), and plotting how to harass journalist Lydia Cacho, who was on the trail of Cancún-based pederasts with close connection to the Puebla government.

If new Puebla Governor Rafael Moreno Valle truly wants to be a governor of "change," he should immediately launch investigations of Succar's connections to Marin and his Puebla dynasty. One may only hope that the former's conviction creates some momentum here.

The perverse practices of "notarized promises"

I recall Gancho has railed against this in the past, and I can only wholeheartedly concur and repeat criticism against the practice of particularly PRI candidates to sign a range of "promises" during political campaigns, and then to have them physically notarized (!). It is utterly ridiculous first and foremost because these "promises," which in the case of Mexico State and Enrique Peña Nieto reached a number of around six hundred or so, tend to be very minor and encompass only a fraction of total budget expenses.

But even more so, it is a remarkable self-admission on part of the politicians: I need to sign these campaign promises with a notary, because you really can't trust me on my word. And to add: How on earth would anyone be actually sanctioned for breaking these promises? A fine? Prison? Public shaming? Why bother to sign at all?

Yet true to form, PRI's candidate-by-designation to be Mexico State governor, Eruviel Ávila, just promised that  he would do the very same thing - and that the number of promises, mind you, would even surpass his predecessor's 600. Thank goodness, now we now he is really serious!

Whatever happened to primaries? The dedazo alive and well, and not only within PRI

The charade witnessed this weekend, when rather than actually running in any kind of primary or internal party vote, Eruviel Ávila was simply "declared" the PRI's candidate in Mexico State, was hardly just a one-time throwback to PRI's infamous dedazo process, where the outgoing governor/president/etc would simply designate his next successor as the designate of the party. In Nayarit, the exact same thing happened: Here, Roberto Sandoval Castañeda, mayor of the capital Roberto Sandoval Castañeda, was yesterday pronounced a "candidate of unity" by the PRI to be the next governor of the state.

Yet this is hardly limited to the PRI: As columist Denise Maerker pointed out in today's El Universal, PAN, in declaring that its candidate for Mexico State governor, alliance with PRD or no alliance, would be Luis Felipe Bravo Mena, is replicating the very practice.

And lest we forget: The backers of Alejandro Encinas in the PRD are calling for the very same thing, to simply drop any internal process due to prominent advantages of Encinas - poll numbers, name recognition etc. Now, Encinas may very well be the "natural" candidate of the PRD, and the only one with a minimal chance of winning the Mexico State election. Yet for the PRD's sake - a party for whom democratization has been the emblem since its inception - I truly hope the party will not fall into the temptation of simply dropping the primary or any semblance of open selection process, and in turn simply declare Encinas its "unity candidate" as well. If it does, it will truly add to the old saying that in Mexico, everyone carries a little priista inside of them.

Cárdenas goes after AMLO

While relations between the two old caudillos appeared to have been somewhat improving, here comes a political attack: Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas criticized AMLO's recently pronounced political project for 2012.

I remain fully convinced that Cárdenas has not given up on his own ambitions, and the substance of his criticism of AMLO's program to me only confirms it: He criticized AMLO for not giving his opinion on the PEMEX incentive contracts, which Cárdenas fully opposes, though he knows fully well that AMLO put up quite a show with his "Brigades" in "defense" of the petroleum, holding a "referendum" on whether to take action and then physically seeking to "take" the Senate to block the passing of this very mild (and in my opinion sorely needed) reform to PEMEX in 2008. Second, he criticizes AMLO for not saying anything about Libya (!) and what he calls "preventive wars." Much can indeed be said for and against the attack on Gadaffi's Libya, but to attack AMLO for this - a man, let's recall, who has absolutely no interest in foreign affairs - seems,well, petty.

But again: I don't think this is meant as any substantively based criticism of AMLO's program, but merely as a first strike against AMLO's political project, that is, his presidential candidacy, which Cárdenas might very well, in one for or the other, try to contest.

Mexico State poll numbers

From Milenio:

No shocker here: Assuming there will be no alliance and that PRD and PAN will run separately, PRI's Eruviel Ávila is ahead with 39 percent, against Alejandro Encinas' 24 and Luis Felipe Bravo Mena (PAN)'s 24.
Just like the proponents of a PRD-PAN alliance has argued, there appears little chance of either PRD or PAN winning against the PRI candidate

A ruling of consequences: Mexico Supreme Court rejects "intellectuals injunction"

The Mexican Supreme Court rejected, by a surprisingly lopsided 7-4 vote, the so-called "amparo de los intelectuales" or "the court injunction of the intellectuals."

In essence, a group of public intellectuals, including Jorge Castañeda, Héctor Aguilar Camín (click here for his perspective on the ruling), and others, had filed an injunction against the 2007-2008 Mexican electoral reform, which prohibits, among many other things, that private individuals and corporations contract political advertisement. Intended to counteract, among other, the "swift boat" style dirty campaigns of the controversial 2006 election, the group had nonetheless argued the reform violated free speech, as it doesn't allow citizens to contract political advertising.

As late as this Jan 31, the court had reached a 5-5 tie. Now, the injuncion was discarded, though the court didn't rule on the content of the reform or on the legislative process but rather on whether it was proper to file and accept an injunction against this constitutional reform.

This means that for the time being - until the next electoral reform - and quite likely for the 2012 presidential elections, the parties, through alloted time slots by the IFE federal electoral institute, will retain a monopoly on political advertising - and that IFE will also retain its drastically expanded role of also policing this type of advertisements.

Eruviel Ávila with thinly veiled reference: "I am from Mexico State"

Candidate-designate Eruviel Ávila declared that "Yo sí soy del Estado de México," or "I am from Mexico state," with emphasis on "I" here. It is a barely veiled reference to his possible opponent Alejandro Encinas, who may, should he compete with Ávila for the governorship, will very likely soon find his required residency in Mexico State questioned by the PRI.

Jesús Ortega: A refreshingly candid interview

H/T to Gancho: Milenio Semanal's interview with Jesús Ortega is very well worth a read. Ortega has always been among the more clear-spoken of PRD's elites; here, the now ex-president lays very clear his views of the PRD and of its conflict with AMLO. Read it and tell me if you still think, as does AMLO, that this is a "traitor" and a mere entreguista.

Jesús "tragabalas" Zambrano: The story of how he got shot

As is often noted, PRD's new leader Jesús Zambrano has a past in armed guerrillas, although he is now a leading member of the social-democratic Nueva Izquierda faction in the PRD. There are many myths surrounding Zambrano; here he himself finally recounts how he earned his nickname tragabalas, from the day in 1974 when he got shot in the jaw, was captured, and would spend years in prison.

SME offers to back Peña Nieto with "200,000" votes

As said by Eduardo Bobadilla, a member of the SME leadership, "Peña wants votes; we want a new company."

Despite hailed by AMLO and parts of the left as something akin to a glorious proletarian vanguard, the SME electricians union is openly negotiating with Enrique Peña Nieto to back the PRI candidate in Mexico State the coming July 3rd - around a third of SME's remaining members hail from Mexico State, and these 5,000 workers claim to be able to conjure 200,000 for the PRI's candidates.

Having essentially betrayed their earlier backers (AMLO, PRD, Ebrard, etc), my hunch is that the SME will in turn be used and discarded by the PRI as soon as the elections are over. 

Grand Theft Auto in Zacatecas: Close collaborator of Amalia García arrested

Strange days in Zacatecas. Sonia Villarreal, a close collaborator of former governor Amalia García, was arrested on charges of auto theft, as a property apparently belonging to her was full of stolen vehicles, as well as 150 rollaway beds (!) belonging to the DIF state social assistance agency.

The name Sonia Villarreal rang a bell to me, and after checking my notes I realized that I spoke with her on 3-4 occasions when I in vain sought to gain a personal interview with then-Governor García - Villareal was in charge of her agenda, apparently. While knowing nothing of her possible guilt or innocence, I did think to myself, funny how life goes.

Eruviel Ávila, PRI´s gubernatorial candidate in Mexico State, by classic dedazo

Surprise, surprise. The chosen one - and emphasis on chosen one - to succeed Enrique Peña Nieto as governor of Mexico State was not Alfredo del Mazo, but rather Eruviel Ávila, mayor of Ecatepec.

It's noteworthy for several reasons: Alfredo del Mazo, the scion of the Atlacomulco dynasty in Mexico State, is far closer to Peña Nieto than Ávila - indeed, as noted earlier, he is almost his double - telegenic, well groomed by the media, from a wealthy background, etc - but the choice of Eruviel Ávila signals very much that Peña Nieto and the PRI realized they needed to move away from this image, instead picking a man who is indeed close to a true rags-to-riches story - his father was a bus driver, and young Eruviel worked as ticket taker on board, then as a class cutter, until achieving a doctorate in law at UNAM, and becoming mayor twice of Ecatepec, the position he just recently stepped down from.

Del Mazo was long tipped the favorite - he is the son of a former governor, grandson of another, and, to add, a cousin of Peña Nieto - but the PRI clearly decided that picking another of the Atlacomulco group would not be worth it - and it certainly takes away from the opposition one strong argument against the PRI nominee.

In any event, it is notable how the dedazo is very much alive in the PRI. One by one the PRI's pre-candidates simply declined - there were no votes, open polls, no primary, nothing - until a "candidate of unity" was simply pronounced. That candidate is Eruviel Ávila, who given his modest background may prove an even tougher candidate to beat than del Mazo.

Alejandro Encinas registers to seek PRD candidacy for Mexico State governorship

Alejandro Encinas appeared Friday in Toluca, capital of Mexico State, to register his candidacy to be PRD's candidate for governor in the upcoming elections.

Encinas brought with him a copy of his proof of residency in the state, which according to the document stretches back to 1979. It was notable how quickly this issue died down; indeed, Encinas himself for the longest used as his main reason not to seek this very candidacy that the might run into legal trouble by not fulfilling the requirements of having lived there the past years. That hardly means the issue is dead; expect a legal offensive against Encinas should he gain PRD's nomination and, to be sure, actually win the July 3 election.

Embarrassing picture of the day: Why AMLO's anti-alliance stance on "principles" ring hollow

That's the front cover Proceso magazine, March 7, 1999. "López Obrador: If in any primary Fox would win, I would vote for him." It refers to the talks between PAN and PRD to present a common presidential candidate ahead of 2000. AMLO, then PRD president, was clearly quite positive to the idea, which obviously undermines his and his backers' argument that their opposition to any PRD-PAN state alliances today are particularly principled.

Well, one might respond, this was about the  2000 election, where the opposition wanted to end a 71-year old rule of the PRI - surely this is different than today's situation? Yes, that's correct - but in that 1) we are not talking of the national level, but on a state-level alliance, and 2) in Mexico State, the pro-alliance forces within the two parties want to end what is now an uninterrupted 82-year long reign of the PRI, which in this state has used any means at its disposal to cling to power, and will almost inevitably succeed again in doing so if the PRD-PAN alliance fails.

There are many valid arguments, and many less so, why AMLO and his backers oppose a PRD-PAN alliance. But principled their opposition is not.

CSIS again off in analysis of the Mexican left

Duncan Wood of Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) analyses the PRD's potential 2012 presidential candidates, and get much right, though I take somewhat issue with his presentation of the two main camps within the PRD as the "center" vs. "more radical ideological" faction: I maintain that the issue is not so much about ideology, certainly not in left-right terms, as Ortega et al in many ways are more left than AMLO, but one of conception of the PRD - movement vs. party,the role of leadership, discourse, methods, tactics, strategies - but not chiefly about ideology.

Regardless: What I think is beyond interpretation is Wood's statement that "AMLO has said that he will not run for the presidency in 2012, and instead will throw his support behind Ebrard."

This is just plain wrong. To be frank, you must have truly been living under a rock not to have heard AMLO's countless pronunciations that he is indeed going for 2012; the first "official" declaration was his much-publicized July 2010 rally in the Zocalo, and he has repeated it ever since.

Human rights reform now passed in both houses

The Mexican Chamber of Deputies on Wednesday approved, in a remarkable 310-0 vote, a series of human rights reforms passed by the Senate (106-0) on March 8.

The reform elevates human rights to constitutional rank, and prohibits any discrimination based on ethnic origin, gender, age, disability, social condition, health, religion, and  sexual orientation (a gorup of PAN Senators tried to remove this part, but were rejected), and the reform has been hailed by the UN's Mexico office.

It also gives more power to Mexico's Human Rights Commission (CNDH), including the right to investigate cases of grave human rights violations, which until now has rested with the Supreme Court.

Also, no longer can a foreigner/immigrant be expelled from Mexico without the right to a proper hearing.

As this is a Constitutional reform, it must now be passed by half+1 of Mexico's states, which very unlikely will be a problem.

In sum: A great step forward.

PRI is anti-alliance - except from their own, signed yesterday

The PRI, the Green Party (PVEM), and Nueva Alianza (PANAL) formalized their electoral alliance - yes, alliance - ahead of the July 3 gubernatorial election in Mexico State. 


Does it get more hypocritical than this? This is the same PRI, to recall, that under Enrique Peña Nieto has done everything in its power - altering electoral law, government propaganda, likening it to organized crime - to block a PRD-PAN alliance, tagging said alliance as "unnatural" and the like. 


In PRI-PVEM-PANAL's defense, the three parties do indeed have quite a bit in common: They are highly opportunistic vehicles, vacuous of any serious programmatic convictions, where trying to grasp a hold of their ideology is akin to reaching into a bowl of jelly. 


Jesús Zambrano, new PRD leader, pointedly asked if PRI, which has attacked the "ideological incongruence" of a PRD-PAN alliance, also agrees with the Green Party's main campaign issue of reinstating the death penalty in Mexico, or with the absolute chiefdom of Elba Esther Gordillo over PANAL and the SNTE teacher union. 

Picture from Milenio. Pure ideological and programmatic congruence, mind you. 

As expected, Zambrano-Padierna already in each other's throat.

Jesús Zambrano, PRD's new president: The vote will be held (on a PRD-PAN alliance in Mexico State)
Dolores Padierna, PRD's new secretary general: nobody wants to hold the poll, and it should be canceled.
While Zambrano and Padierna do represent factions that, respectively, back and oppose the poll, one might point out that the PRD's natioanal council voted with a large majority to hold it. Yet the day Padierna and her IDN faction actually respects internal party votes they lose... well, that'll be the day.


One last stab from Padierna that signals how the relationship between the two will be, as well as demonstrating Padierna's (utter lack of) logic:

"Today is our first day of work. He [Zambrano] went to his first meeting with [PAN president] Gustavo Madero (president of the PAN); my first meeting was with Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas. In this we note in the end what we want for the party."

One sign the economic crisis is waning....mas Tequila!

Mexican tequila exports went up 13 percent last year when compared to 2009. One hundred and fifty-three liters are sold abroad, to be exact, and 70 percent of this goes to the United States...

Todos debemos creer en algo, yo creo que me echo otro tequila. 

Mexico State poll numbers: Pro-alliance forces rising

47.6 percent of Mexico State residents who are not close to PRI, said they would support a PRD-PAN alliance. This is up from 41 percent two weeks ago.

Note that the poll was done, though, by the Gabinete de Comunicación Estratégica, an oufit the PAN and PRD most recently have accused of making propaganda, through call centers, against the alliance, and earlier of deflating the true level of pro-alliance support. We will presumably find out this Sunday, when the poll will be held.

Church to PRD: Stop lawsuits, then we'll talk.

You really do get much further with a smile and a gun than with a smile alone, as Al Capone noted.
The PRD, after a series of vicious political attacks from the Catholic Church, finally launched a series of lawsuits, which clearly has worried the church. The most recent sign: Armando Martínez Gómez, legal representative of Cardinal Norberto Rivera (and, I assume, Hugo Valdemar, whom IFE recently found to have broken the law), said the church would be willing to talk with the PRD, but only if the party drops its lawsuits.

PRD's new national president, Jesús Zambrano, said he was willing to talk with Cardinal Rivera, but that the PRD would not retract the suits. Given the escalation of the church's rhetoric the past years - calling PRD fascists, an enemy of the faith, etc - PRD's conclusion seem to be that with the catholic high clergy, you do not get very far with a smile alone.

Amalia García off the hook, for now

Former governor of Zacatecas, Amalia García Medina, has for months been under investigation for the "diversion of resources" during her government. Now, however, the 23rd Circuit Court (Zacatecas) suspended this process, blocking the Zacatecas State Comptroller's proceedings against her, and thus reversing an earlier decision by the 2nd District Court (Federal District). That means that for now, García is off the hook.

Alfredo del Mazo officially wants to be governor in Mexico State

I've long regarded Alfredo del Mazo as the most likely anointed candidate to succeed Enrique Peña Nieto as governor of Mexico State, not the least because he is virtually Peña Nieto's Doppelgänger.

Now, from del Mazo's mouth:

"Today I am telling all residents of Mexico State that I do want to be governor. I have a conviction of vocation of service; I have lived it at my own home: both my father and my grandfather worked for the state and helped it grow."

I would be expecting the proclamation of del Mazo's "unity candidacy" any time now.

Two of the most embarrassing photos I can ever remember in Mexico

First, Juanito in the pathetic charade orchestrated by AMLO in 2009 to put the former street vendor-boxer-porn actor-etc etc as a token candidate running against the official PRD candidate:

From Milenio

Yet now, an even more embarrassing photo, also courtesy of Milenio: 

To recall, Juanito a while back declared that he would now become priísta. Who on earth, however, managed to convince new PRD President Humberto Moreira that posing for a photo with Juanito in 2011 would  be a good idea? 

AMLO's Alternative Project for the Nation Reloaded

The event certainly allowed for some impressive pictures: the National Auditorium, filled with what La Jornada reports to be 9,000 attendees:

                                         Photo from La Jornada

AMLO launched his 2012 bid like in 2005, with an Alternative Project for the Nation, which reads pretty much just like his 2005 manifest. Yes, there are some new additions (this article sums them up well), but from what I can see, this is much the same program as that underpinning his first presidential campaign.

(From La Jornada, a paper that has unfortunately in the case of AMLO long since discarded any semblance of objectivity and rather functions as his unofficial mouthpiece, here's AMLO's speech in its entirety. And can any piece really be any more groveling than this "report" by Jaime Avilés?)

It is not that it is really a bad program - and as various observers have pointed out, it is in many ways quite centrist (more on this later). But so was his 2005 program. It is rather AMLO's discourse and lack of respect for the democratic process that people rightly perceive as "radical."

In any event: AMLO in addition, he reiterated the now-standard line to "not be confused" - the PAN and PRI are all the same. As this remains a key argument why he (now, as opposed to in the past) opposes any PRD-PAN tactical electoral alliance, it simply begs the question: If PAN and PRI all the same, why would PRI's return be so qualitatively worse than the current PAN administration?

PRD internal election: Despite outcome, election itself big step forward

One thing to note: PRD finally moved away from the highly destructive method of electing its leadership by mass party votes, which with no single exception has ended in turmoil, fights, fraud accusations, and general disaster for party unity and the party's general image. Now, the PRD's national council instead voted - and access was restricted to the plenary only through an emergency exit, credentials checked and double checked, and after depositing the vote, each councilor had indelible ink applied to the thumb, to avoid another cochinero. And when all is said and done: It worked.

First round:  154 votes for Jesús Zambrano, 111 for Dolores Padierna, and 43 for Armando Ríos Piter.
As no 2/3 majority reached - and would not be reached for either candidate - a deal was struck for a Zambrano-Padierna compromise ticket. This received 233 votes in favor and 36 against.

The PRD also voted to ban any alliance with PAN and PRI in 2012 - so now that's official, despite AMLO's insistence that he has secret information that PRD wants a PRD-PAN formula in 2012.

Other than that, the party postponed remaining business, such as who will fill the posts on its national Secretariat, and its National Political Commission. Given the drama over the weekend, no wonder.

And then she cleaned her hand: Institutionalized schizophrenia in PRD election

After PRD's new secretary general Dolores Padierna shook hands with the party's new president Jésus Zambrano for the photographers, she sat down to wipe her hand on the table, declaring, "Better to clean it, so as not to bring bad luck."

With the risk of indulging too much in the occurrence: Could any analogy better explain what is the likely outcome of PRD's new cohabitación?

As expected, PRD's new national president is Jésus Zambrano, of the social democratic faction Nueva Izquierda, NI. The party's secretary general will be Dolores Padierna, of the social movement-oriented Izquierda Democrática Nacional, IDN.  The two groups oppose each other on virtually every level - ideology, tactics, strategies, organization, personal animosity... and of course, on whether PRD should ally with PAN in the upcoming state elections. It is true that IDN discreetly backed the 2010 alliances, only to turn against them when AMLO's anti-alliance rhetoric became increasingly hysteric, yet I am willing to bet the PRD's new president and secretary general will be in other's throats within days over this very issue.

By electing a Zambrano-Padierna "compromise" - few other options existed, it seems, given the relations of strength in the party council - the PRD has now pretty much institutionalized the schizophrenia dividing the party - a loose social movement-organization following AMLO's dictates, or an institutionalized center-left party a-la Zapatero's PSOE in Spain - by naming one from every camp for the party's two top positions.

If the IDN, nominally led by Padierna but created by her husband René Bejarano, can be persuaded that Ebrard has a better winning chance than AMLO and throw their lot with the former, this oil-and-water marriage could have a happy outcome. Yet given that, in my analysis, the division between these two blocks has been the cause of the party's main fault lines since its founding, I remain very skeptical of the feasibility of this coexistence. I hope I am wrong.

Excellent overview of the PRD factions from Milenio

I have often taken issue with many of the "overviews" of PRD's internal factions by Mexican media, as names, allegiances, alliances, positions, etc often tend to be bungled up, but this graphic gets it quite right:

PRD: A quick analyis on the Partido de la Revolución Democrática's leadership renewal

Ahead of what will likely be a final vote on Sunday, the three official candidates to be PRD's new president are Jesús Zambrano Grijalva, Dolores Padierna Luna, and Armando Ríos Piter. 


The two latter stand very little chance:  While nominally backed by most of the "G-8" or eight factions opposed to the social-democratic line of Jésus Ortega in favor of a populist movement-party tied to former presidential candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the only faction with serious weight in G-8 is IDN, which represents the clientlistic social movement organizations organized and captured by René Bejerano since the 1985 earthquake. The other 7 barely have any representation, with partial exception of IS, Izquierda Social, whose powerbase remains the secretariat for social development of Mexico City, although the secretary, Martí Batres, has seem many of his powers stripped away in recent months.

In any event, Padierna remains quite indigestible to the majority of party, and IDN members have admitted they know she stands very little chance of winning the presidency, and as such is aiming for the secretary general. According to PRD rules, this election - which thankfully will be decided by the National Council instead of an open mass member ballot, a practice that with no exception has ended in disaster - will allow the secretary general to the runner-up; the winner, in any regard, is stipulated to need 2/3 of the council's voted. 


Barring a new and "surprise" candidacy, Jésus Zambrano therefore appears the likely new president, with Padierna as secretary general. Ahead of the weekend's council meeting, Zambrano declared his candidacy. It had long  been increasingly clear that it would be Zambrano, a former guerrillero who nonetheless joined the institutional social-democratic Ortega win - and  pretty much clinched with the PRD's remarkable comeback in Guerrero, where Zambrano was campain manager.


Armando Ríos Píter, a "compromise candidate" presented by Marcelo Ebrard, is also in the running, though and unlikely candidate has he has no weight in or even knowledge of the party - not an orgánico by any means - and has been in an out of PAN and PRI before he came late to the PRD. 


A note on Ebrard: While he has presented his own alternative, Ríos Piter, he has also made it clear that he "doesn't decide" who will lead the PRD. What a difference from AMLO, who as mayor of Mexico City demanded and received an  almost complete control of the party, trumping through his pliant (and now ex-PRD) choice Leonel Cota as president. One may regard this a sign of Ebrard's lack of full backing by the PRD; a far more benevolent interpretation is that he is simply far more respectful of the autonomy the party than AMLO ever was - or remain, for that matter.


Regarding the vote over new president, one warning was launched by Senator Carlos Navarrete: If the groups can't come to any agreement, there will be no election and Ortega will continue as president until November. A few late-coming alternatives might be  Hortensia Aragón of Foro Nuevo Sol, Juan Guerra from Alternativa Democrática Nacional, Martha Dalia Gastélum from Izquierda Renovadora en Movimiento, and Alfonso Sánchez Anaya. The three former have all backed Ortega in the past; Anaya is a former governor of Tlaxcala regarded as closer to AMLO and opponent of Ortega; he bailed from PRI to join PRD in 1998. 


It is still not out of the question, however, that Ortega and Ebrard, who are allies, can muster a 2/3 majority in favor of a Zambrano-Ríos Piter slate. This will cause some serious trouble with the "G-8."


Comments from IDN spokesman Alejandro Sánchez Camacho are quite typical: He warned against "majoritarianism" and that "many will leave," unless IDN are given at least the secretary general. However, should Ortega and Ebrard manage to come up with the required 2/3, one compromise might be Zambrano-Martha Dalia Gastélum, also close to Ebrard, or Zambrano-Jésus Valencia of the Mexico State PRD. I found it doubtful that IDN would leave the party, though several of the small G-8 factions very well might. Given the utter unwillingness of many of these to accept losing votes, a negotiated exit may hurt the PRD in the short run, but strengthen it in the long run. 


In any event, if any doubt remained on the modus operandi of the AMLO-aligned groups within the PRD, Dolores Padierna declared, "Si no ganamos a la buena estamos preparados para ganar a la mala."
Few would expect otherwise.

An old-fashioned clientelism scandal in Mexico State, now on Youtube: Enrique Peña's Mexico State government

This growing scandal appears as nasty as it looks: Ahead of the July 3 gubernatorial election, PRI functionary Bernardo García Cisneros, president of the state's arbitrarion board, was caught on video (see Youtube clip here) presenting himself as representative of Governor Enrique Peña Nieto, in a meeting that included Chalco  municipal president Luis Enrique Martínez and representatives of the state's secretariat of work, asking PRI members to help with the clientelistic handout and to sign up voters for public welfare in return for their vote.

The video was seemingly shot on Feb. 14, and could hardly be more incriminating, including this line on handouts:

"We will all have to deliver them, house by house, zone by zone, section by section, personal and directly,  by every one of you, and by the people of the Secretariat of Work, who are the representatives precisely of the state government in this place."

The national presidents of  PRD and PAN, Jésus Ortega and Gustavo Madero, filed charges with the federal attorney general's office, accusing García Cisneros, the state secretariat of work, and Enrique Peña Nieto himself of the abuse of office, authority and power, influence peddling and embezzlement, all crimes under the  federal Criminal Code.

The reply from Peña Nieto could hardly be more disingenuous: "I distance the Mexico State government from what might be the the particular participation of some functionary, which will be responded to."

To repeat: García Cisneros presents himself as Peña Nieto's representative on the tape.

Cristina Díaz, PRI's new secretary general, immediately leaped to Peña Nieto's defense. PRI President Humberto "Big Mouth" Moreira has so far been uncharacteristically silent, as far as I can see.

Petroleum plunder: Happy birthday, PEMEX

Today,  March 18, is "PEMEX Day" - it is 73 years to the day since Lázaro Cárdenas nationalized foreign oil companies and eventually set up Petróleos Mexicanos.

In this regard, PEMEX director Juan José Suárez Coppel said that the the state oil company lost three billion pesos worth of gasoline last year from criminals siphoning off the petroleum. This apparently amounts to 17,000 barrels milked every day - double the figures from 2009.

El Universal, for its part, in its editorial today called for "rescuing PEMEX" from yet another plunder - the "official" one, as the oil company continues to be used as a cash cow to cover budget holes yet at cost of depleting the company for resources needed for its modernization.

Either way: PEMEX is being plundered.

AMLO's Tabasco PRD under investigation for fraud

The PRD's state branch in Tabasco is in trouble: Criminal proceedings have been launched against party leader Javier May Rodríguez for the alleged fraud of 35 million pesos, stemming from his tenure as mayor of Comalcalco 2007-2009. Tabasco is the home state of Andrés Manuel López Obrador, and the Tabascan branch is one of the few AMLO retains complete control over. May Rodríguez is one of AMLO's closest collaborators there.

The Tabasco PRD calls the investigation "political revenge," and he is defended by allies such as Arturo Núñez, senator from Tabasco (who wants to become the state next governor), yet May Rodríguez has been a very controversial party leader for his iron-fisted control of the branch - as was, to be sure, the leadership of José Ramiro López Obrador, AMLO's brother, who headed the party before him.

José Ramiro, to recall, last year faced charges of embezzlement.

The Guerrero Green Party water sports scandal

More on this outrageous scandal in Guerrero:

Federal secretary of health, José Ángel Córdova Villalobos, lamented that a Fernando Reina Iglesias, president of the Environment Commission in the Acapulco city council and a member of the Green Party to boot, had used a state helicopter for personal recreation. How about having him arrested?

The helicopter was purchased in order to help marginalized indigenous communities gain access to health facilities. Now, it turns while Reina Iglesias was instead repeatedly using the helicopter training to break the Guinness speed record on water skiing behind a helicopter, in the state of Guerrero, 126 poor women died in remote communities for lack of sufficient medical attention during their pregnancy.

Sixty million pesos yours for grabs - for whistleblowing

Salvador Vega Casillas, secretary of the federal Función Pública, which monitors federal spending, said the organ would set aside 60 million pesos for those who denounce public corruption.

While it's unclear how much will be handed out for every case of successful whistle blowing, Mexico is here also abiding by international agreements against corruption that prescribes such measures.

Sixty million pesos - they're yours to grab!

Want to live in the historic downtown of Mexico City?

The association of real estate professionals (AMPI) let it be known that after surveying the historic downtown district of Mexico City, 380 properties are ready to be rented out or sold - rent from 2,000 to 30,000 pesos; for buyers, 350,000 to 10 million pesos so something for everyone, in other words.

Wandering through the most historic areas of Mexico City, I've always daydreamed of purchasing one of the surprisingly many vacant apartments there - much of them, to be sure, uninhabited as a cause of the '85 earthquake.

Hurry, before Carlos Slim buys them all.

From El Universal

Michoacán politics: Human Rights Commissions goes youtubing

Todos están youtubeando:

The human rights commission in the state of Michoacán uploaded a youtube video entitled "Presumed guilty means innocent until the opposite is proven," in clear allusion to the super documentary of the same name, yet also adding a local element: The michoacanazo, where scores of state functionaries were arrested on anonymous accusations and released without evidence. Several of these make appearances as "victims of the
michoacanazo," behind faked prison bars.

The video Presunto Culpable es inocente hasta que se demuestre lo contrario" can be seen here.

Jésus Ortega, PRD national president, on a 2012 PRD-PAN common candidate

National president of the Partido de la Revolución Democrática (PRD), Jesús Ortega, from an interview in today's Milenio on the suggestion that PRD and PAN might launch a common presidential candidate in 2012:

"it is an outrage, a fabrication, and an unheard of lie"
("una barbaridad, un invento y una mentira insólita”)

Does it get clearer than this?

Yet AMLO knows better.

Ernesto Cordero

Since a couple of months back, my hunch has been that Ernesto Cordero will be PAN's eventual presidential candidate. Stories such as this only add my accumulated circumstantial evidence:

"During his visit... Cordero handed out clothes, toys and trucks seized and forfeited by the Sistema de Administración y Enajenación (SAE) from organized crime, to the 18 poorest municipalities in the country, including Coicoyan de las Flores, San Agustín Loxicha, San Andrés Paxtlán and Santa Lucia Miahuatlán. He said the initiative came from the wife of President Calderon, Margarita Zavala, and the indigenous federal deputy Eufrosina Cruz Mendoza."

Medical helicopter used for ski trips: Mexican Green Party (PVEM) in a nutshell

From the Mexican Green Party (PVEM) - the only rightwing environmentalist party in the world, mind you - we bring you Fernando Reina Iglesias, president of the Environment Commission in the Acapulco city council:

After being caught by the press, the councilor admitted that he had used a helicopter purchased by the Guerrero state's secretary of health to for medical transportation from Guerrero's poorest and most marginalized areas... to go skiing.

The helicopter has so far not been used for any sort of medical purposes whatsover, but for private trips by outgoing governor Zeferino Torreblanca, and for the barefoot-skiing-at-241 km/h-behind-a-helicopter- exercises of Reina Iglesias.

There are a few occasions where I simply just don't find the words, and this is one of them.

AMLO knows something you don't

AMLO, on tour in Zacatecas to promote his presidential ambitions:

"People don't know this, nor do members of the PRD and PAN, but I have information that an agreement has been reached between the national leadership of the PRD and Calderon at Los Pinos to go together [in 2012]. So that's why I drew a line and requested a leave of absence, because I don't agree with that.'

Ah, the illuminatus with his revelations that are unseen to us mortals.

Campaign for the PRD-PAN Mexico State vote on alliance is on

The campaign for the PRD-PAN vote in Mexico State over a possible alliance for the July 3 gubernatorial elections is on, and so is its Web page, where results of the March 27 vote will be posted.

Again: this is a campaign to promote turnout for the March 27 vote - the "Yes" is in favor of merely holding the poll, open to any registered voter.

Here's the logo (in a seeming family-value oriented format!) of the campaign:

One legacy of PRI's disastrous rule of Oaxaca: 96 percent of funds federal

These figures, revealed by Oaxaca's new secretary of finance Gerardo Cajiga Estrada, are truly dramatic: The state manages only to contribute 3.75 percent of its total spending, meaning 96.25 percent of funds spent by the state government are transfers from the federal government.

PRI, which governed the state for 81 years, almost completely failed in two very basic state functions: To provide a monopoly of the legitimate use of violence, and to produce a functioning state bureaucracy capable of taxing its citizens.

As the new Gabino Cué government is taking stock, here's part of the PRI legacy on the latter function:

- More than 55 percent of commercial business do not pay taxes
- Only a third of impuesto sobre nómina or payroll taxes are paid
- Only 30 percent pay the required tenencia or car tax
- The average predial or property tax payment is 35 pesos, against ideally 220, according to Cajiga Estrada.

Political or religious proselytizing?

"Go from door to door, convince the people.Do not worry about what they may say; this task is so deserving, because one is working even to rescue those who are against our movement, and for their ignorance are supporting lost causes. Go even to those areas that are said to be priístas or panistas; you will find yourselves surprised how many of them still support us."

You be the judge.

(AMLO quoted in today's Milenio on how to spread the message of his Movimiento de Regeneración Nacional, Morena)

AMLO on Josefina Vázquez Mota

AMLO, on the news that PAN's Josefina Vázquez Mota wants to seek PAN's presidential nomination:
"She is a member of the mafia of power."

Given that AMLO's 2006 loss - yes, he lost - has often been chalked up to this kind of discourse (rather than, say, his actual political program, which was quite centrist) characterizing a possible (likely?) competitor in the 2012 race as a member of the "mafia," is demonstrating very little sense of political learning.

Mexico's desperately needed fiscal reform

An El Universal editorial addresses a long known truth that nonetheless warrants repetition:

In Latin America, only Haiti, the poorest country in the hemisphere, collects less tax revenue than Mexico - around 10 percent of its gross domestic product - compared to almost 40 percent of the quite comparable case of Brazil, and the 30-40 range of the OECD countries.

What does this mean? That very few people pay taxes in Mexico.

Oh, and by the way, Carlos Slim is back on the top as the richest man on the planet.

PAN and Wikileaks. Pounding Pascual

The continuing reactions to Carlos Pascual's leaked assessments of PAN's potential presidential contenders, whom the U.S. ambassador in confidential non-for-distribution cable characterized as "gray" and "weak," are becoming increasingly pathetic and, as far as I can see, counterproductive, given thaty they assure the continuing dissemination of Pascual's negative characterizations of the PAN.

Gustavo Madero, PAN leader, says: The cable "hurts very much the relations between Mexico and the United States."

PAN senator José González Morfín, to add head of the party's senate group, says:

"How little diplomatic Ambassador Pascual has emerged - I have no knowledge of any representative in the diplomatic history of Mexico who has behaved like this."

Really? Perhaps because there were no such leaks in the past. For crying out loud: Pascual did not make these declarations with the intent of making them public; they were released by Wikileaks! Of course Madero and González Morfín are not as stupid as to think the U.S. embassy does not make assessments of presidential contenders - so why on earth do they continue this pathetic knee-jerk reaction to a document that was for internal use only? It is making the party look pretty stupid, and not just "grey" and "weak," as Pascual, in what seems to me to be a quite accurate assessment, noted in the cable.

The case of Basilia Ucan Nah: United Nations gets involved

The case of Basilia Ucan Nah, an indigenous woman in Quintana Roo, accused of pimping, stinks to high heaven. 


Now, the United Nations is getting involved: Its High Commissioner for Human Rights has requested that authorities in Quintana Roo revise the case. OHCHR Javier Hernández Valencia representative met with the accused, and also sought to speak with local judicial authorities, though without luck.


Why? They were unavailable, busy celebrating carneval.

Women in the Mexican Congress: Disheartening numbers

María del Carmen Alanís is head of the TEPJF, Mexico's highest electoral tribunal. Yet as she notes, in the Mexican legislature, women are sadly far and few between:

- In the Senate: 18 out of 128 women senators, or barely 14 percent
- In the Chamber of Deputies, worse still: 28 out of 500, or 5.6 percent (!)
   A long, long, long way to go.

   --> CORRECTED - apparent typo in article (thanks, Yann!) : At least 124 out of 500 - or less than 25 percent.

Still a pretty long way to go...

"For those who are afraid - of you"

PRD-PAN alliance in Coahuila official

Official it is: PAN and PRD officially confirmed the electoral alliance in the state of Coahuila, which is also holding gubernatorial elections the coming July 3.

Likely candidate: Senator Guillermo Anaya, the compadre, as it were, of President Felipe Calderón.

Possibly a section of the PRD, opposed to the alliance, will split off from the party as a result; what is almost certain is that AMLO will  promote his own candidate, Jesús González Schmall, former national deputy for Convergencia.

PRI and abortion: Apparent turnaround in the party is highly significant

A significant development: The PRI, in the form of the new national leadership of President Humberto Moreira and Secretary General Cristinas Díaz, on International Women's day declared that women should have a right to choose, and called moreover for a debate within the party.

After the PRD in Mexico City legalized abortions up until the 12th week, the ripple effect was of the revers kind, in that a range of states responded by drastically limiting women's right to have abortion, in many cases tightening the laws so as to make them more restrictive than even under 1857 Constitution of the great Benito Juárez in the 19th century. While this might be expected from the generally socially conservative PAN, what was particularly notable about the anti-abortion wave was that many statehouses were dominated by PRI.

At least 17 states made part of the state constitution the idiotic preposition that "life starts after conception."

Now, there appears to have been a major rethink of this line. Note that recently departed leader Beatriz Paredes, though arguing the PRI was an open, tolerant, and "center-left" party, refused to make any comments on abortion, in the process allowing the state branches to join forces withe most arch-conservative elements of the Mexican society, such as the catholic church.

Now, however, Humberto Moreira himself said he favored free choice for women. I'd say that this is a step  forward for the  notoriously machista party.

AMLO: Calderón's candidate for 2012 is.... Elba Esther Gordillo!

A lot of speculation on the rumor mill regarding what Calderón really had in mind when he perhaps not inadvertently commented that PAN had to look for the best candidate for 2012, even if not a party member.

The latest addition to the pool of speculators: Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who thinks that Calderón intends to place as his candidate SNTE leader Elba Esther Gordillo, and hence prepared the party for this.

If Gordillo is Calderón's candidate for 2012, I will personally make a pilgrimage, AMLO-style, to San Luis Potosí 64, El Peje's headquarters in Colonia Roma, Mexico City, and offer my apologies for any and all criticism.

The disastrous misrule of Emilio González Márquez, governor of Jalisco

Admittedly we are talking about an impartial source here; the study is made by the PRD of Jalisco, an ardent opponent of the ultra-reactionary government of Emilio González .

Yet the report, put together by federal PRD deputies from Jalisco, is primarily based on reputable sources, including quantifiable indicators of e.g. health, education, crime, the environment, economic competitiveness, and unemployment and offers a very damning picture of González Márquez' government.

With a play on words, it is entitled, El desgobierno en Jalisco: Las verdaderas cifras, or the Misrule of Jalisco: The real figures. It is well worth your time.

Direct link for pdf download here.
Direct link for annoying flash presentation here.

It's official: Josefina Vázquez Mota wants to be presidenta

After a steady stream of hints and "I might, probably, likely, possible," etc declarations, it's official:

Josefina Vázquez Mota will seek the PAN's nomination for the 2012 presidential campaign.

That is the very simple yet tangible reason why she has repeatedly dismissed a 2011 candidacy in Mexico State.

Who's next?

Mexico's minium wage: Completely stagnant the last 10 years

According to figures from the Mexican Secretary of Labor and Social Welfare (Secretaría del Trabajo y Previsión Social, STPS), the rise in the Mexican minimum wage from 2000-2010 was....0.09 percent!

That means that while the salary rose, when inflation and purchasing power are taken into the consideration, the best way to describe the evolution of Mexico's minimum wage after 10 years of PAN governments remains "stagnation."

Graphic from Milenio

The wording of the March 27 vote over on PRD-PAN alliance in Mexico State

The vote will be open to all voters, not just registered PAN and PRD members, and will take place March 26. Here is the actual wording of the single question that will be asked:

"For the next gubernatorial election in Mexico State, would you agree to an alliance between the PAN and the PRD that would propose a candidate with a common program for government?"

As simple as that.

Rosario Green and Carlos Pascual

Senator Rosario Green's attitude baffles me. The Senator is no lightweight, in the regard that she was foreign minister for Ernesto Zedillo 1998-2000, and now presides the Mexican Senate's foreign relations committee. Yet her comments recently make little logical sense:

She declared she wanted Carlos Pascual, the U.S. ambassador to Mexico, designated a persona non grata. 

Yet why? She is clearly offended by Pascual's evaluations of Mexico's security efforts, known through Wikileaks, but these were exactly that: unwelcome leaks, in the sense that Pascual was not speaking off the record in order to plant the story in the Mexican press, and as such was making an assessment not meant for the Mexicans.

Moreover: She is upset, and quite rightly so, by the newly discovered deliberate leak of U.S. weapons to Mexico; she also opposes the arming of U.S. agents in Mexico, clearly a very real issue of sovereignty.
Yet none of these objections have anything to do with Pascual himself. As such, I can't think of any better way of describing this as mere posturing.

Polls for Nayarit gubernatorial election

Still at a very early stage in the electoral process in Nayarit, in the sense that none of the official candidates have been chosen yet, here are nonetheless the results of a poll of votes according to party preferences that give PRI 38 percent, PRD 13.8, and PAN 9.8 percent support. This means at this stage very little, and the one-on-one lineups quite likely reflect name recognition more than anything, but it is interesting reading nonetheless:

For high resolution  PDF file of the image below, click here. 

More on cristianos and catholics: Quality, not quantity?

Elio Masferrer Kan,  head of the Asociación Latinoamericana para el Estudio de las Religiones, argued that INEGI's figures on religious adherents are wrong and that catholics make out not 83.9, but 82.72 percent. Big deal, you might tell yourself - and that would in any case be pretty much what Manuel Corral of the catholic Conferencia del Episcopado Mexicano seemingly responded:


"[Corral] minimized the decline of Catholics in the country. He said that what matters most to the Catholic Church is the quality of the faithful rather than the quantity (!)


What on earth does that even mean?

Michoacán politics: New leader for state PRD elected with "consensus"

Given that Fabiola Alanís Sámano stepped down in order to compete for the PRD's gubernatorial candidacy,  the state council of the PRD's Michoacán branch voted to elect national deputy Víctor Báez Ceja its new president. Báez represents the internal group Movimiento de Unidad Cardenista founded by Michoacán's current governor, Leonel Godoy, and was as such very much the "chosen one."


The outgoing president Fabiola Alanís Sámano is considered an ardent supporter of AMLO, but it is far from clear that she has the backing of Godoy to be his successor as governor. 


Other strong candidates: Antonio Soto Sánchez, Enrique Bautista, and Raúl Morón Orozco. I personally could think of no better candidate than Antonio Soto.

Quote of the day from Xóchitl Gálvez

Xóchitl Gálvez, on tour in Mexico State to promote the PRD-PAN alliance:

"If Enrique Peña Nieto came to fuck me over when I was the candidate for governor in Hidalgo, then I am coming here to do the same: He can go fuck himself."

AMLO interview with La Jornada: It doesn't get clearer than this

La Jornada has an interview with Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) in today's newspaper, and I strongly recommend it to be read in its entirety, as it outlines in crystal clear terms AMLO's conception of politics and of how to bring about change in Mexico.

An excerpt, roughly translated:

"We believe that the key is the transformation of the country. That it makes no sense to maintain the status quo. I argue that politics is about making history, and in a country like ours it is crucial to strive for true change. The reality is that Mexico is in the hands of a few, a mafia of power responsible for the current national tragedy; that there is, strictly speaking, no democracy, and that as long as one maintains this regime of  domination will be no possibilities for the vast majority of Mexicans. There will be no justice, welfare, peace and tranquility for the country."

LJ: But the PRD leadership emphasizes that one has gained political space?

"The leaders of the 'left,' and I will put it in quotation marks, be it councilors, mayors, governors, legislators, they accommodate and for them it is a way of live. So as not to be too inconsiderate: It is also a political conception; they think that they can gradually improve the situation of the country."

"They assume the role of parliamentarians, present points of agreement, participate in commissions. They travel abroad and attend all the forums, although this implies yielding to the 30 mobsters who have seized all powers, who control the television and almost all media. And the PRI and PAN are using them according to what suits them."

Gradual improvement, reforming and proposing laws, searching for compromise with other parties - AMLO may reject it, but for any government on the planet worthy of being called a democracy, this is what the political process is all about.

Ignorance and Cowardice: Hugo Valdemar and the sorrow state of Mexican high clergy

Found guilty by the Federal Electoral Tribunal (IFE) in having broken Mexican law, Hugo Valdemar, spokesperson for the Archdiocese of Mexico, said he would impugn IFE's resolution, yet in the process exposing himself again as an ignoramus and a coward.

* Ignorant, for demanding "complete freedom of expression," when the issue at stake is rather that Valdemar has repeatedly referred to the PRD as a "fascist" party and called on the faithful to vote against it.
* Cowardly, for on the one hand claiming freedom of expression, but in the next breath declare that IFE misread him and that he didn't really say the things IFE documented he had said.

What a pitifully sorrow  intellectual and moral state of the high clergy of the Archdiocese of Mexico - Hugo Valdemar, and his boss and protector of pederasts, Norberto Rivera.

If only there were a Samuel Ruiz or Raúl Vera to take the place of these reactionaries, who make pope Ratzinger look like a liberal.

More on Calderón's statment; Gustavo Madero bactracks

Regarding Calderón's statement that the party had to look for the best possible candidate for 2012, whether a member or not, I asked, does Calderón have a particular non-PAN candidate in mind?

Writing in today's El Universal Denise Maerker, who I find to be a very sensible journalist and columnist, ask very much the same question, and notably claims that Calderón's declaration was "not an innocent suggestion."

She list three possible reasons for Calderón's comment on 2012:
- He doesn't think PAN has any winning candidate
- He is thinking of a possible alliance with the PRD
- He is playing a game, trying to cover up who his real preferred candidate is

Note as well that PAN appears backtrack on its seeming endorsement of Calderóns comment/proposal; party president Gustavo Madero said that it is in any case "99.99 percent sure" that PAN's 2012 candidate will be a party member" (though former president Vicente Fox backs what Calderón appeared to suggest).
We'll see.

Fewer christians, more cristianos in Mexico

The percentage of what Mexicans call cristianos, meaning everything from mainstream protestant christians to evangelicals and snake-charming pentecostals, is rising:

Twenty years ago,  the percentage of non-catholic christians was 4.9; this figure has now risen to 7.6 percent, according to INEGI figures,  apparently to the detriment of the catholics, who now make out 83.9 as compared to 89.7 in 1980. That is at least the gist in this interesting El Universal article on the subject: They are simply better at the recruitment of new followers (or invest more man power: There are now almost two non-catholic pastors for every catholic priest, or around 21,000 to 40,000, according to the interior ministry).

From what I gather, this development also applies to other countries in Latin America, particularly in Central America, though I have also anecdotal evidence from Argentina: When I was doing field work for my doctoral dissertation there, my ninety-something old neighbor in Barrio Norte (where I happened to live in an apartment that belonged to the Guevara family) for months insisted on 1) helping me clean my kitchen, although she had never set foot inside, and 2) talking about her evangelical church, which I occasionally endured as she would now and then keep my interest by throwing in a Che (whom she referred to as el asesino) anecdote.

Calderón comment makes front pages: PAN open for non-party presidential candidate

It's quite a feat: Calderón made the front pages of La Jornada, Milenio, and El Universal today. The reason was this statement:

“From now on, I respectfully suggested that we all devote ourselves to see, in every electoral district, in every state, and in every elected office, who truly, a party member or not, can answert to the attribute of being the the best, because what is at stake is nothing less than the future of the country, and not only the future of the government of PAN."

One should not jump to the conclusion that PAN has decided to go for a non-party presidential candidate for the 2012 contest, and the declaration was really made in the general context of Calderón giving the "go!" for the 2012 presidential context.

Yet notable it is, regardless of how one looks at it, in particular with Gustavo Madero, the PAN's national leader, soon thereafter declaring that he will push for the party to change its internal rules so as to "open it up to the citizenry."

After Ernesto Cordero basically shot himself in the foot with his idiotic recent comment on how-to-survive-on-6000-pesos, does Calderón have a particular non-PAN candidate in mind?

Gabino Cué follows through on promise to replicate Mexico City's social programs

Oaxaca governor Gabino Cué announced that the state has so far set aside 2.4 billion pesos for social programs similar to those in Mexico City championed first by Andrés Manuel López Obrador and then expanded by Marcelo Ebrard:

* 500 pesos paid monthly to 35,000 seniors
* 1,500 pesos paid to single mothers who have lost their jobs, for a maximum of three months
* Health and social insurance to 25,000 persons suffering from some kind of disability.

SNTE bashed in Senate: Ricardo Monreal diatribe against "corrupt" Elba Esther Gordillo

It is seldom I find myself much in agreement with former Zacatecas governor, now-Senator Ricardo Monreal,   though I make an exception for Monreal's colorful outbursts in yesterday's session in the Senate:

"There is in the world no more corrupt union than SNTE. There is no more corrupt woman in the country than  Elba Esther Gordillo. Investigate her, and investigate me. I have no respect for a political union that keeps our education on the ground. I will not tolerate attacks. I do not fear their money or power; I am going to take on that woman, you and your union. Governors, legislators, and the president are afraid, but I am not. Here you will have me from today onward, fighting for the union to be transparent with its resources, because nobody knows how it is actually managed."

Can't say I disagree with this assessment. I hope Monreal actually will follow through on this quest.

Beatriz Paredes steps down; PRI president-elect Humberto Moreira offically takes charge

Today, Beatriz Paredes Rangel will officially step down as national leader of the  Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI), and Humberto Moreira, governor-on-leave-of-absence from Coahuila, will take her place.

In this regard, Joaquín López-Dóriga has a very useful run-down of her achievements, as well as failures. Paredes took power March 4, 2007 (NOT 2008, as López-Dóriga erroneously states).  Since then:

* In the 2009 federal elections, PRI won 188 of 300 single-member districts, which is a higher achievement than in 2003, 2000, and even 1997 (though note PRI still does not have a majority on its own - it lost its 2/3 majority in 1988, and simple majority in 1997)
* In 2009, PRI lost Sonora for the first time (an upset mainly due to the ABC child care scandal), yet won the five others at stake, including recovering San Luis Potosí and Querétaro from PAN.
* In 2010, PRI famously lost Oaxaca, Puebla, and Sinaloa, yet won the nine other states at sake, including recovering Tlaxcala and Aguascalientes from PAN and Zacatecas from the PRD.
* In 2011, the PRI lost both gubernatorial elections so far: Guerrero remained with the PRD, while in Baja California Sur, PAN defeated the PRD.

From 2008, PRI under Paredes won 14 governorships - Nuevo León, Colima, Campeche, San Luis Potosí, Querétaro, Tamaulipas, Chihuahua, Durango, Hidalgo, Veracruz, Tlaxcala, Aguascalientes and Zacatecas - and lost six: Sonora, Sinaloa, Oaxaca, Puebla, Guerrero and Baja California Sur.

That means, as López-Dóriga calculates, that PRI had 18 states in 2008, PAN 8, and PRD 8, while today it has 19 states, PAN 5, PRD 5, and the PAN-PRD alliances 3.

(he doesn't include 2007, the year Paredes became president; then, PRI won Yucatán from PAN, while PRD maintained Michoacán)

How much of it can be attributed to Paredes? According to her collaborators, she was instrumental in choosing the gubernatorial candidates, and has certainly worked hard to restructure and reposition the PRI as a possible winning party in 2012. Yet the most recent defeats this year in Guerrero and Baja California Sur comprise a strong psychological blow to the "steamroller" image the PRI had obtained particularly after the 2009 federal election, as do of course the 2009 losses of Oaxaca, Puebla, and Sinaloa, states where the PRI had never relinquished power.

The party, moreover, remains highly programatically and ideologically diffuse, wracked with personality clashes and divisions, and, to be sure, as vertical and lacking in any semblance of internal democracy: The party is as authoritarian as ever.

Now it is up to Humberto Moreira to finally position the PRI ahead of the 2012 presidential contest. The PRI is a very clear favorite in Coahuila, but in Nayarit the PRD, possibly with PAN, stands a very good chance of winning, and of course in Mexico State, things are still very much in the open, though a non-PRI victory is extremely unlikely unless PRD-PAN will present a common candidate.

It will be an exciting electoral spring.

How long can Carlos Pascual remain the U.S. ambassador to Mexico? "Don't help me, compadre"

It's front page news in Milenio and La Jornada, and certainly has its fair share of media attention in the United States as well (Washington Post, Wall Street Journal):

President Felipe Calderón is extremely critical of the U.S. ambassador to Mexico, Carlos Pascual, and is stating it pretty much as directly as he can. Asked directly if he had still confidence in Pascual and could still work with him - Pascual's wikileaked disparaging comments on Mexican security efforts have been particularly galling - Calderón replied: "It's difficult to build and it's easy to lose."
Calderón also said sarcastically, "Don't help me, compadre," a reference to what is regarded as less-than-helpful help from the U.S. embassy and State department.

Despite the notable praise of Calderón and Obama for each other, and the seemingly very tangible result of ending the NAFTA trucking dispute, the Pascual case remains a sore.  One anonymous U.S. official noted after the meeting, "We stand by our official... and that was that."

Yet this is surely an untenable situation in the long run: The Mexican government has absolutely no confidence in Pascual and wants him out, while Obama sticks by him.

How long will he last?

Highly recommended read on Mexican politics: Weintraub's "Unequal Partners: The United States and Mexico"

A book I've meant to say a few words about for a while: Sidney Weintraub's 2010 "Unequal Partners: The United States and Mexico." It is a short, succinct, and highly readable account of current Mexican politics and economy that I recommend wholeheartedly. 

Weintraub is an emeritus professor at the University of Texas, where he first started teaching in 1976, and though he is trained as an economist - he was an early proponent of U.S.-Mexican economic integration since the early 1980s - he is as well a very astute political observer and analyst. Also, it should be added, while the book is published by the rightleaning Center for Strategic and International Studies, this is no ideological tract, but a very well written balanced account of U.S-Mexican relations - and much more.

First on the U.S-Mexican relationship. Weintraub's two guiding hypotheses are as follows:

1)  The belief that Mexico approaches the United States with diffidence because of its sense of dependence; and 2)  That the U.S. reaction to Mexican proposals, or when the United States submits its own initiatives that affect Mexico, is as the dominant player (p. 6)


These are "tested" throughout the book in the areas of trade, FDI and finance, narcotics, energy, migration, and the border. Significantly, though, he argues that Mexico in the past decade has become much more assertive and insistent, while the U.S. has become less dominant, and uses examples such as Fox's opposition to the Iraq war, the Merida initiative, demanded by Mexico, immigration, and the NAFTA trucking dispute to demonstrate this change. Given the most recent news coming out of Calderón's visit to Washington, where a deal appears to have been made (after Mexico finally slapped expensive yet fully legal sanctions on U.S. products), the argument is interesting. 


Yet the book also offers some highly succinct and readable accounts where the focus is often on domestic developments in Mexico: 


* An excellent review of Mexican economic history and the ISI model (Weintraub met Raúl Prebisch on a range of occasions)


* A very balanced account on NAFTA: "There is no logic in the argument that Mexican GDP growth faltered because its exports increased – and this is what the ‘blame NAFTA’ arguments amount to" (p. 35) - though he also admit NAFTA was indeed oversold on both sides (he might also emphasized here as well that it was hardly a deal made between two democratic countries - how relevant was that to the outcome?)

* A very good review of Mexico's opening and turn toward Foreign Direct Investment, and the 1994-5 economic crisis, with ensuing bank bailout

* A poignant commentary on the 2009 economic crisis:  “unlike the slow economic  growth during much of the past thirty-five years, the fault is no primarily Mexico’s.” (p. 59).

* A very balanced and pragmatic view on the drug "war," summed up simply and effectively:

"The problems between the two countries will persist as long as drug marketers in Mexico can generate the large income that they receive for supplying an illegal product in great demand in  the United States” (p. 76-77) 

*An excellent chapter on the oil industry, and the absurdity of not allowing any risk contracts: Mexico's current legislation on petroleum is more restrictive than Cuba's! Also, a stark assessment of PEMEX's strengths and weaknesses - though he notably does not favor privatizing the company.

*Great chapter on immigration, exposing the perennial U.S. hypocrisy on this topic:

"The door for entry into the United States was deliberately left half-open: people could cross without papers and have jobs waiting for them; and then the blame for what was taking place could be shifted to the poor Mexican whose intent was to find a better life. It has not been a story that casts glory on the United States” (p. 105)

* Rips to shreds the argument that Mexican trucks are dangerous and that allowing them would be bad for the environment - rather, points out the madness of the current situation where three vehicles must now be involved, including hours spent idling at the border.


And so forth. Again, this is written by an economist who is strongly in favor of U.S.-Mexican economic integration and freer trade and more financial flows, but it is a wonderfully balanced work.

Yet another Guanajuato functionary steps down after "irregularities"

Jorge Armado Aguirre Torres was until he was removed this week ecretary of health in the Guanajuato state administration. After "irregularities" was detected in the managing of the Seguro Popular, the health insurance program for the poorest Mexicans without a job-provided health insurance in the formal sector, Aguirre Torres became the eighth state official of secretary rank to step down in the four years since Juan Manuel Oliva became the governor of Guanajuato.

Juan Manuel Oliva has been embroiled in a wide range of very dirty scandals the past months - read more here and here - that directly implicate the yunquista governor. As ever more attention is put on his scandal-ridden government, expect more stories to surface the coming months.

Mexico City electoral institute wants expatriate voters for 2012 mayor election

The electoral institute of the Federal District-Mexico City, IEDF, announced it would work toward allowing residents of Mexico City outside of Mexico - about half a million defeños are estimated to live abroad - to vote in the 2012 election for mayor of Mexico City.

DF will then join Zacatecas and Michoacán in terms of allowing its expatriates to vote on the local executive.

No details were released on exactly how this will be achieved; with the 2006 failure in mind, where only a tiny fraction of those residing abroad (meaning the United States) actually voted - a result that a recent (2010) scholarly work by James McCann, Wayne Cornelius, and David Lea ("Absentee Voting and Transnational Civic Engagement among Mexican Expatriates," in this edited volume) attributed chiefly to high bureaucratic hurdles - clearly the IEDF needs to take proactive steps to make this a real option.

SNTE section 22 exposed: "Aviators"

The Auditoría Superior de la Federación (ASF) or the Mexican federal auditor, found that in Oaxaca in 2010, under then-Gover Ulises Ruiz, an "indeterminate" numbers of "teachers" affiliated with  dissident Section 22 of the national teachers union SNTE are so-called aviadores, literally aviators or fliers, a term referring to those who draw a state salary yet never set a foot in the classroom, only "flying" in to pick up the check (the term in Argentina, if I recall correctly, is ñoquis, after the Italian dish traditionally eaten on the 29th)

Three hundred "commissioners" of the SNTE section 22 was also on the state pay roll, paid to perform administrative tasks for the state yet working for the union instead.

AFI reports that the inflated/bloated/faked employee rolls cost the state at least 40 million pesos last year, a sum that could have been spent on the Oaxaca education system, among the absolute worst performing in the country, rather on propping up the teachers union.

Carlos Marín, writing in Milenio, claims at least 10,000 out of the 70,000 employed as teachers in Oaxaca, are aviadores. The real cost of this nefarious practice thus remains to be seen.

IFE: Hugo Valdemar broke Mexican electoral law; Sandoval Iñiguez exonerated

A decision of importance: The Federal Electoral Council (IFE), following a vote in its general council, declared that Hugo Valdemar, "spokesperson" for the Mexico City archdiocese, had indeed broken Mexican electoral law by calling on people not to vote for the party PRD.

This is truly a historic decision: A high-ranking member of the church found guilty of breaking Mexican electoral law. I cannot think of any comparable act in Mexican history.

At the same time, IFE exonerated Juan Sandoval Iñiguez, archbishop of Guadalajara for proselytizing/electioneering; the arch-reactionary archbishop had, to recall, accused Marcelo Ebrard of bribing the Supreme Court. Note that several processes against Sandoval remain open; he was only let off the hook for "electioneering."

IFE had first refused to touch the cases against Hugo Valdemar, "spokesperson" for the Mexico City archdiocese, and Juan Sandoval Iñiguez, archbishop of Guadalajara, claiming it had no jurisdiction over the matter, yet the Electoral Tribunal (TEPFJ) ruled otherwise and sent the case back to IFE, which in the end voted that Valdemar broke the law.

Now, let's see if any sanction will be applied by the Interior ministry, whose responsibility it would be to mete out one.