"Peace and love" between AMLO and PRD.

It's front page news in Milenio, El Universal, and La Jornada, and rightly so: AMLO meets with thee chuchos, Jesús Ortega and Jesús Zambrano of the Nueva Izquierda, and they all call for "peace and love."

NI, the largest faction of the PRD and of a clear social-democratic orientation, has long been at loggerheads with AMLO. As far as I recall, Ortega has not met with AMLO for years, possibly 2006 when he was nominally his campaign manager, yet when he (and the PRD) was completely overruled and overrun by AMLO's own movement organization.

There's been lot of angry denunciations and accusations ever since - but now they've apparently decided to make up. "Love and peace," AMLO said. Hopefully it will last.

Sonora government of Guillermo Padrés: Does it have no shame?

Javier Sicilia has put blame of the murder of Nepomuceno Moreno on PAN Governor Guillermo Padrés Elías. While all is speculation at this point, this reaction is understandable, and certainly from a moral point of view: Nepomuceno Moreno had repeatedly asked the state government for police protection given a range of threats to his life, yet none was offered.

Yet the point I want to make is this: Rather than lamenting the murder and simply keeping a low profile, what does the state attorney general do? In meeting with the press, state attorney general Abel Murrieta Gutiérrez is more worried about smearing Nepomuceno Moreno, pointing out to media that earlier he

had been imprisoned previously for possessing a weapon exclusively for military use.The attorney general's office said that Moreno Nunez was involved in an armed incursion of a home in 2005. According to the Mexico City daily Reforma, however, the authorities failed to mention that he was released from prison after being absolved. (From CNN)

What complete lack of any moral integrity. The gut reaction from an attorney general who is obviously incompetent, incapable or unwilling to do his job to protect his state's citizens, is simply to blame the victim.

The contempt demonstrated by some prominent PAN and PRI members - the Sonora government is led by Guillermo Padrés Elías, and the attorney general is from PRI - toward the victims of Mexico's drug conflict is simply stunning at times. It is also bordering on, or even crossing, the illegal.

Nepomuceno Moreno murdered in Sonora

Sad news from Sonora: Nepomuceno Moreno Muñoz was a key activist in the ¡No más sangre! campaign, and a participant in Javier Sicilia's peace movement. Recently, like Sicilia, he met with Felipe Calderón at the Chapultepec castle in Mexico City, where the president received a range of activists critical of the "war" against the drug gang. Many, like Moreno, have simply been demanding to know the whereabouts of their children. Moreno's son has been missing since July 1, 2011, kidnapped in Ciudad Obregón.

Now Nepomuceno Moreno was himself murdered, when an unknown assailant shot him seven times while he was driving in Hermosillo, close to the Universidad de Sonora.

Javier Sicilia blamed the murder on PAN Governor Guillermo Padrés Elías.

Surprise warning against church manipulation from Chuayffet

Emilio Chuayffet Chemor has been a quite unpredictable an erratic president of Mexico's Chamber of Deputies. Now he launched a warning that also came somewhat out of the blue: the "manipulation of consciousness" carried out by the Mexican catholic church.

According to Chuayffet, the Church has been a master in the exercise of power,

so therefore, we catholics want it far away, we do not want it to intervene in political life, because we know how far it can get and how it easily it can manipulate consciences and guide them in in its own favor, for its own interest."

Can't say I disagree to much with the analysis, though surprised to hear it from Chuayffet. Not all former governor of Mexico State (and former interior secretary) are as kowtowing to the Mexican church as, say, an Enrique Peña Nieto or a José Francisco Blake Mora.

PRI denounces ghost companies in Guanajuato

Local PRI Deputy Miguel Ángel Chico Herrera denounced the government of Juan Manuel Oliva Ramírez in Guanajuato for having made no-bid purchases for the the government worthy 272 million pesos, from what appears to be simply "ghost companies" - meaning they have no address or physical location.

It is not the first time the ultra-conservative yunquista Oliva faces such accusations of dirty dealings, including juicy contracts doled out to close relatives.

AMLO calls out zapatistas for 2006

In Chiapas, AMLO called on the zapatistas not to repeat their behavior from 2006.

Then, surpassing even its usual high standard of sectarianism, the EZLN hurled a stream of epithets toward the PRD, including the standard ultraleft label of fascism (!) against the PRD and AMLO, and Marcos went on a celebrity-like tour around Mexico and called on people note to vote for the left - or any party.

While it is unclear how much influence Marcos had and had over the vote, his call upon the far left not to back AMLO, given the narrow victory of Calderón, might even have cost AMLO the victory.

Entire police force resigns in Carácuaro, Michoacán

Carácuaro, Michoacán, is a historic place: It was where José María Morelos, exercised his priesthood before joining and becoming a leader of the Mexican War of Independence.

It is sadly today a place where the entire police force of 38 men  resigned following threats and ambushes from organized crime, leaving public security provisionally in the hands of the military.

Carácuaro has been run by PRI, and will after the elections be led by a left coalition.

Ebrard 2018

Much, much water will run under the bridge until 2018. But in a chat with students at Tecnológico de Monterrey, Ebrard said he wanted to go for 2018 - reiterating that he will seek no senate or deputy seat for 2012.

AMLO's priority: Get rid of Elba Esther Gordillo as teacher union head

AMLO said one of his first priorities will be to remove Elba Esther Gordillo as head of the main Mexican teacher union SNTE, Sindicato Nacional de Trabajadores de la Educación.

I suspect that he'll gain more than a few votes on this one, as he moreover has much credibility on this: Unlike PAN, who in 2006 was a Gordillo ally, and 2012, where Peña Nieto has recruited her (or vice versa), AMLO has always refused to make any pacts or alliances with the "president-for-life" of SNTE.

Vote-by-vote recount in Morelia gives victory to PRI

Following a manual, full vote-by-vote recount in Morelia, the victory of PRI in the mayor's race for the capital city of Michoacán was confirmed, with 2,347 more votes for Wilfrido Lázaro Medina over Marko Cortés Mendoza. Final count: 122, 258 to 119, 941. The PRD came in a distant third.

This did not stop Cortés from impugning the election to the state's electoral court.

Narcopolitics in Michoacán, bullet form updates

The brewing narcopolitics scandal in Michoacán is receiving international attention.
In short, Milenio got hold of recorded conversations where third-in-command of La Familia Michoacana (which supposedly is no longer existent), telling villagers in the Tierra Caliente and Tuzantla area to vote for PRI.

Subsequent reactions:

* PRD president Jesús Zambano said it was evidence of narco collusion with PRI and merely the tip of the ice berg

* PRD's defeated candidate Silvano Aureoles Conejo demands election be annulled.

* Cocoa, PAN's candidate and president Calderón's sister,  demands and explanation

* So does the PRI.

* Political commentator Ciro Gómez Leyva apologizes to Cocoa for having belittled her claims of a narco vote

* SIEDO has launched an investigation

* New interior secretary Alejandro Poiré said the recordings were "very worrisome signs"

* PAN has now joined the PRD in demanding the elections be annulled.

What a beautiful sight

Creative arms-reduction methods in Chiapas, from Milenio:

Milenio

Manlio Fabio Beltrones officially out of PRI race

Senator Manlio Fabio Beltrones officially bowed out of the campaign to be the PRI's nominee for 2012 presidential candidate. No major criticisms in his resignation speech, but many subtle jabs at the PRI leadership, from what I gathered, and a not-so-subtle criticism of how PRI has altered, in recent days, the rules to select its candidates, deemed advantageous to Peña Nito.

Now only PAN remains to choose its 2012 candidate

Bishop Raúl Vera López on Coahuila's debt

The great defender of the downtrodden, Bishop Raúl Vera López, on the subject of Coahuila's massive debt left by the PRI government of Humberto Moreira, now reportedly 35 billion pesos:

"it will be the poor who will have to pay for it."

I am afraid he is absolutely right.

Mexican business warms to AMLO

On the one hand, the Consejo Coordinador Empresarial (CCE), the major business council in Mexico, and its president Mario Sánchez Ruiz declared that AMLO is not a "danger" to private investment and business in Mexico - quite a different tone from 2006.

On the other La Jornada has a very interesting article based on interviews with former PAN and PRI-backing businessmen who are now pro AMLO. Anecdotal, yes, and impossible to know how representative, but I found it interesting to hear their narrative, how they have grown disillusioned with the free-market model in Mexico -or perhaps, the poorly functioning free market model. Perhaps they have come to realize that a leftwing government, with an obligatory reference to Lula, may actually not be damaging to growth, but rather quite the contrary?

The tithe is alive and well at the Universal Church of the Kingdom of God

La Jornada has gone "undercover" in an investigation of what in Mexico is known as the Iglesia Universal del Reino de Dios, or the Universal Church of the Kingdom of God. Of Brazilian origin and of the theology of prosperity, the UCKG probably ranks around 13 million members world wide, and is absolutely and stunningly filthy rich, and under investigation for fraud and tax evasion in multiple countries.

The article is well worth a read. The manners in which the UCKG is trying to extract a tithe - yes, the tithe, or the 10-percent-of-all-your-income tax, from its congregation is simply stunning in its cynicism. Read for yourself.

What charlatans.

A most worthy PRI senate initiative: Microbrews!

With the goal of promoting artisanal beer, the PRI is launching an initiative in the Senate to reduce the tax burden on micro breweries, arguing that while this type of beer may well be as strong in alcohol as main stream beers, because it uses different ingredients it is likely to as well be healthier. Hence, less taxes on micro beers!

Salud!

La Familia Michoacana killed ex governor, PRI politician implicated

The investigation by the state attorney general's office of Colima has determined that the murder of former Governor Silverio Cavazos Ceballos 2005-09 (PRI) was murdered by La Familia Michoacana last Nov. 21 - almost exactly a year ago.

Notably, also implicated was Samuel Rodríguez Moreno, nephew of ex governor Fernando Moreno Peña (1997-2003) and currently a delegate of the national PRI executive committee to the state of Michoacán, as "intellectual co-author" of the ex governor's murder.

A very significant development: PRI fissures surface

The carefully groomed yet highly constructed facade of PRI unity ahead of 2012 is cracking, and most importantly, in a highly public manner: Labastida openly attacks the PRI leadership.

Francisco Labastida Ochoa is no minor person in PRI - senator, presidential candidate in 2000, and very close to Manlio Fabio Beltrones, who also at least appears to be seeking the PRI nomination for 2012. 

* He argues the party presidency of Humberto Moreira is damaging the unity of the party

* He argues the PRI's alliance with the discredited Elba Esther Gordillo is taking away as many votes as it is adding for the party. 

Also, according to the rumor mil, in Mexico City Beatriz Paredes is very unhappy with the decision by Moreira to simply hand over a senate candidacy to Jorge Emilio González of the very un-green Green Party, rather than to reserve it for a PRI legislator.

Many PRI bigshots point out that the PVEM (Green Party) and PANAL (party of Gordillo) are getting far too many safe seats in return for backing the PRI's presidential nominee - which seems a very fair point.

For those of us who see the New PRI as nothing but the same old authoritarian old PRI and fear its return, a split in the PRI is highly desirable.

Calderón recognizes electoral defeat

No, not Felipe, but his sister, who put up a charade claiming against all evidence that she was the winner of the Michoacán gubernatorial race, finally conceded.

Many municipal results are down to a handful of votes in differences, so final results still not clear.

Dignified response from PRD to fake debates

In response to the suggestion from AMLO - a bad joke if that is what it was, or an asinine proposal if it was real, as it seems it was, that the parties behind his candidacy simply present their party presidents as "fake" candidates so that AMLO will get the added allotted media time by the Mexican state for pre-candidacies, PRD president Jesús Zambrano answered, “It should be clear that I am the national president of the PRD" - meaning, unlike the PT president who immediately jumped on the proposal, Zambrano will not stoop to this low, and neither will the PRD. It was a dignified response.

Mexico's New No.2:

As is often noted, given that Mexico does not have a vice president, the equivalent "no. 2" has often been the interior secretary. Following the recent death of José Francisco Blake Mora, it was announced yesterday that new Secretario de Gobernación will be Alejandro Poiré Romero - the fifth of the sexenio.

Notably, Poiré has only served two months or so as head of CISEN, the federal intelligence agency. That should tell you something of what, not unexpected, the priorities are for the new secretary.

On the other hand, he is also a pretty well-respected political scientist, and knows a lot about elections matters and parties. That will come handy as well. 

Candiacies are crystallizing: Manlio Fabio Beltrones to decline from seeking candidacy

The usually very well-informed Carlos Loret de Mola writes that Manlio Fabio Beltrones is to step down from the contest to get the PRI's candidacy for president in 2012.

Significant news - and, it seems to me, a direct result of, when all is said and done, the left defying all expectations by being the first party to choose its de facto presidential nominee - Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) - without any fissures or scandals. I think that shocked quite a few of the political establishment, especially since AMLO seem to be gaining a surprising amount of momentum.

The rather hurried decision of Beltrones to step down to leave the path for Enrique Peña Nieto could be a measure of just that.

AMLO: I want to be the Mexican Lula

AMLO dixit:

I want to be the Mexican,Lula but with my own characteristics. If they had not done the fraud against us, the example to follow would not be Lula, it would be Mexico. The country would not be like it is, I assure you that. until there is a change we will not find the exit. They have shut down, they have maintained an outdated regime, they don't want any changes done to those who are already going great, the monopoly of power.

Marcelo Ebrard on his future plans

From Milenio:

I have not retired from anything, I continue as head of the government of the city, I continue my political career and I'm thinking ahead, I always think about the future, not just tomorrow but what will happen in 10 or 20 years.

Whatzatspell? I'd love to have listened in on the AMLO-Ebrard conversations, but something is telling me the year 2018 came up.

Two very recommended reads on AMLO as the left´s 2012 candidate

Two very recommended comments on Marcelo Ebrard's full acceptance of the results of the polls won by AMLO to be the left's candidate - and the way forward for the Mexican left.

* Jesús Ortega's  commentary
* Agustín Basave's commentary

PRI will run in coalition with the two most discredited parties in Mexico

Admittedly there are a few to choose from - Mexico has an unusally wide array of highly opportunistic minor parties - yet in terms of two lacking near any semblance of a programmatic identity and real purpose beyond serving as franchises, as tools for their leaders, few beat the Partido Nueva Alianza (PANAL) of teacher union boss Elba Esther Gordillo, and, unchallenged at the top, the  Partido Verde Ecologista de México (PVEM), the only rightwing Green Party in the world, which is not green, and not a real party.

Regardless: PRI's Political Commission just announced it will go in coalition with these two miscreants for the 2012 election in at least 126 districts, and for 10 senatorships. The PVEM's "Niño Verde," Jorge Emilio González Martínez, son of party founder Jorge González Torres, wants to be senator, and will likely get the candidacy.

Joaquín López-Dóriga has a very interesting column on the price PANAL wanted to extract from PRI - 30 federal deputies and 5 senators, reportedly. That is a very high price to pay for Gordillo's support.

Nuevo León ex governor who claimed PRI pacted with narcos questioned

Sócrates Rizzo García was governor of Nuevo León 1991-1996, for the Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI). It therefore sent quite a few shock waves through the political spectrum when he last February made some comments that strongly suggested that the even national had been making pacts with the drug gangs in the 1990s. The PRI-controlled presidency,

“tenía resuelto el problema del tránsito” de (droga), pues de algún manera se les decía (a traficantes) ‘tu pasas por aquí… pero no me toques estos lugares’”.

Rizzo was now - 8 months later, mind you - questioned by the PGR or the federal attorney general's office regarding these claims. Yet what did he state now? "I was not aware of any" narco pacts.

I know nothing! (couldn't help this one)

AMLO reconciles with Televisa, concocts scheme to get media exposure

A picture worth the front page of today's Milenio: AMLO greeting and being interviewed by Televisa's Joaquín López-Dóriga:

From Milenio

AMLO, as is well known, has long had a feud with Televisa, accusing them of a media black out of his movement. Apparantly this has now come to an end. There are a million things to criticize this network for, and very rightly so, though I find the claim of a black of AMLO in the media quite laughable - he has been appearing pretty much constantly in print but also electronic media the past years.

Note as well that since the left has now decided on a common candidate, AMLO won't have access to state-provided TV and Radio time to promote his nomination. So guess what AMLO then will try to do? To "debate" other fake "candidates" to pretend the nomination has been not decided yet, in order to get the added media exposure.

If anyone think AMLO has become any more respectful of institutions and the rules of the game over the years... I am afraid they will have to think again.

Cartoon of the day...

I am stealing today's cartoon in El Universal, as it is just too funny not to be shared:

Andrés Manuel López Obrador will be the left's 2012 candidate

The results of the poll were finally made public this morning: Andrés Manuel López Obrador will be the candidate of the PRD, PT and MC for the 2012 election.

The PRD will in 2012 be a party with a 23-year history, yet merely two presidential candidates.

I truly hope I am mistaken, but as far as I can see, this all but assures that the next president of Mexico will be  Enrique Peña Nieto, and that the PRI will return to Los Pinos.

Andrés Manuel López Obrador will again be the left's candidate for 2012

Andrés Manuel López Obrador will be the left's candidate in 2012, according to the results of the two polls released today. That is, he is the "best positioned" in the two polls he and Marcelo Ebrard had commissioned. He will now run on a coalition likely consisting of the PRD, the PT, and Movimiento Ciudadano.

Watch the conference now, live from Milenio TV 

Cynical quote of the day

Enrique Peña Nieto, ex governor of Mexico State and likely PRI presidential candidate, is again in Washington, DC, appearing at the Woodrow Wilson Center. There, speaking of the needed structural reforms in Mexico,  he declared,

"Neither the left nor the right, have the optimum conditions, as shown, to undertake these reforms"

How bold. This, after the federal legislators controlled by Peña Nieto in the Chamber of Deputies has sabotaged and blocked virtually every major legislative initiative the past couple of years. Cynical quote of the day.

Michoacán governor election, more results and data

* According to the PREP (preliminary results based on quick count), PRI won the governorship with 35.39 percent of the votes

* PRI won 11 local deputies for congress, PRD 8, and PAN 5

* PRI won 46 out of 113 municipalities (with PVEM alliance in several), PRD and allies 30 (down from 41), and PAN 27 (up from 20)

* 54.2 percent of voters participated.

* Silvano Aureoles Conejo, the left's candidate, says Sunday's election in Michoacán should be annulled, given what he says was massive federal intervention in the election, threats against PRD militants, and PRI collusion with organized crime.

* Do does Cocoa, president Calderón's sister and PAN's candidate. She also demands a vote-by-vote recount, and the count of 879 ballot boxes that were not counted by the PREP. I looked at the PREP and made references to these here. I think, too, these should be counted again.

* The winner according to the PREP, Fausto Vallejo Figueroa, denies any narco ties.

* Yet Manuel Camacho Solís, coordinator of the Diálogo para la Reconstrucción de México (DIA) left front of PRD, PT and MC, says the left should accept the results.

* The federal attorney general's office is investigating 42 concrete cases in relation to the election

Michoacán: PREP closed with PRI ahead, but funky numbers

All three parties claimed to have won the Michoacán election, with the surprise winner Fausto Vallejo Figueroa on top in the PREP, or Programa de Resultados Electorales Preliminares. As its name implies, these are not the official results and have no legal value - they are based on a quick count of the actas or tally sheets, which it appears were scanned electronically just as they came in.

For the official count, the complete electoral packets must be sent in to the electoral districts of the state, and the numbers of the tally sheets checked. They may also be opened and actually recounted, if the data on the tally sheet indicate, well, that something just ain't right - that the numbers don't add up with votes cast and reported remaining ballots, etc.

What is interesting is the ballot boxes reported in the PREP - access, in Excel form, to all the boxes is given here. Of the 6075 boxes reported for governor, the more one skims down the page (they are ordered according to when first reported in to the PREP), there are many hundreds of instances of 1) Tally sheet ineligible, 2) Sum of votes superior to the number of people voting, 3) Numbers do not match up, 4) Envelope empty, and 5) Envelope not handed over.

See for yourself here. Skimming the sheet, at least 500 boxes were not counted as part of the PREP. Though we don't know the absolute size of this vote, in terms of percentage of ballot boxes, that is quite a bit (8 percent based on purely eyeball measure) - and if we assume the number of votes in each box is roughly on average with the ones that were counted, (2-300 it seems, again just skimming), we are talking 100,000-150,000 votes not counted.

They could, of course, follow a complete normal distribution, in that they are spread out evenly among the candidates, but I will certainly withhold judgment on who won in Michoacán Sunday until both the state electoral institute and electoral tribunal have ratified the election.

Michoacán governor election: PRI ahead with 89% of voted counted

According to the PREP, or a program for preliminary election results contracted by Michoacán's electoral authority, Fausto Vallejo Figueroa is leading in the count to be Michoacán's next governor with 35.38 percent.
Luisa María Calderón Hinojosa is in second place with 32.67.

If confirmed, this is quite an upset: All major polls had Calderón's sister Cocoa as the favorite. It will be a huge triumph for the PRI ahead of 2012.

PRI won in all four districts of the capital Morelia, where Vallejo was governor, and the two in Uruapan. It is also ahead in Hidalgo, Zitácuaro, Apatzingán, Zinapécuaro and Múgica - 9 districts.

PAN is ahead in La Piedad, Zamora, Jiquilpan, Jacona and Tacámbaro, while PRD won Lázaro Cárdenas, Puruándiro, Zacapu, Huetamo, Maravatío, Los Reyes, Pátzcuaro and Coalcomán.

What is moreover clear, as Milenio proclaims front page in its print edition, is that the PRD lost control of the state.

Michoacán election and one thing I truly detest about Mexican politics

No official results are in - none. Yet both the presidents of PAN and PRI, respectively, claim their candidate won the election with, to be sure, an "irreversible advantage."

Politics have become, to a certain extent, a race to the bottom, where each party simply calls out that it won in a better-safe-than-sorry fashion, clearly not trusting the process enough to leave this job to the official electoral authorities, yet in the process showing absolutely no regard for the democratic process or the institutions actually charged with declaring a winner.

Think 2006: First AMLO, and then Calderón, claimed to have won the election - even both had sworn to await the official results. Do they never learn, or do they simply not care?

This behavior is truly irresponsible, and only contributes toward creating more and more mistrust.

God is pro-drug war

God is pro-drug war. At least the Mexican Roman-Catholic one: The Conferencia del Episcopado Mexicano (CEM), or Mexican Episcopal Conference, the leadership of the Catholic church in Mexico, strongly backed Calderón's fight against the drug cartels, despite recent criticism by Human Rights Watch and the Washington Office of Latin America on the fallout of the "drug war."

The CEM admitted there had been "some victims," yet minimized the claims of HRW and WOLA that Calderón's decision to send the military head-on against the drug cartels has dramatically increased violence as well as human rights violations.

Calderón's government has as well minimized the reports, to the chagrin of the political opposition.

No evidence yet of foul play in death of interior secretary

The Mexican Secretary of Communications and Transportation (SCT) said preliminary investigations have uncovered no evidence or indications of a fire or explosion in the helicopter crash that claimed the life of Interior Secretary José Francisco Blake Mora and seven others Friday.

WOLA on the Mérida Initiative

Two recent views on the Mérida Initiative:

The U.S. Embassy in Mexico claims the Mérida Initiative has been a great success, having contributed to the arrest of drug traffickers, actions against money laundering and arms traffickers, and of the training of police and security forces.

Washington Office of Latin America (WOLA): the Mérida Initiative has led to an increase in violence in Mexico.
Read the WOLA report here, and is very much worth a read. It also includes a very useful graphic comparing the Plan Colombia with Mérida:

From WOLA 

Michoacán votes: President's sister is favorite

Luisa María Calderón Hinojosa, the sister's president, is the favorite ahead of today's gubernatorial election in Michoacán. Accusations have been flying of illegal interventions from the PAN-led federal government to back Cocoa.

1,639 election observers, a record high, will guard election, which will also see a heavy security presence by the army and federal police - reportedly 10,000 in total, to guard the 3.4 million voters, of which around 50 percent are expected to participate. Notably, michoacanos in the United States could also vote, via postal ballot, and around 600 or so such votes were registered and approved - or around 0.002 percent of the around a quarter of a million living abroad, meaning above all United States.

In Cherán, there will not be any ballot boxes installed, however, as its citizens have refused the holding of elections in the predominantly indigenous municipality, instead claiming their right to do so through the traditional usos y costumbres method used in indigenous areas particularly in Oaxaca.

The new governor will only sit three years and seven months, given earlier reforms in the state to gradually seek to synchronize the elections with the national

In addition, 40 state legislators and heads of 113 municipalities will be elected today. Polls close at 7 pm U.S. eastern time, and the preliminary results can be seen on www.iem.org.mx and www.prep.org.mx.

The company behind this PREP, PoderNet, assured voters these results were safe from any cyber attacks and manipulation.

MEXICO'S INTERIOR MINISTER REPORTED DEAD

José Francisco Blake Mora, Mexico's interior minister, is reported dead in a helicopter crash.

If confirmed, Blake Mora is the second interior secretary to perish on the job, after the 2008 death of Juan Juan Camilo Mouriño.

This is truly terrible news.

The brand-new Human Rights Watch Report on Mexico

Human Rights Watch's latest report on Mexico (available here), is drawing much attention. Here is, for example, The Economist's very even-handed story on it.

Bottom line, from the HRW report's Executive Summary:

Human Rights Watch found evidence of a significant increase in human rights violations since Calderón launched his “war on organized crime.” In the five states examined, members of security forces systematically use torture to obtain forced confessions and information about criminal groups. And evidence points to the involvement of soldiers and police in extrajudicial killings and enforced disappearances around the country.

HRW looked at five states, and found, as is now close to the common wisdom, that sending the army has not caused a drop in violence - quite the contrary. In addition, it has resulted in massive human rights abuses from the armed forces:

What we have found is a public security policy that is badly failing on two fronts. It has not succeeded in reducing violence. Instead, it has resulted in a dramatic increase in grave human rights violations, virtually none of which appear to be adequately investigated. In sum, rather than strengthening public security in Mexico, Calderón’s “war” has exacerbated a climate of violence, lawlessness, and fear in many parts of the country.

UNAM professor murdered in Morelos

UNAM professor Ernesto Méndez Salinas, a biotechnology researcher, was murdered Tuesday night in Cuernavaca, Morelos.  UNAM dean José Narro Robles repudiated the murder and demanded it be solved.

IFE's Leonardo Valdés criticizes PRD's method for selecting its 2012 candidate

IFE's Leonardo Valdés has done and said many things as head of IFE's general council (often referred to as IFE's "president") that I can't quite figure the logic behind.

Another recent example: Two days ago he declared that PRD's method of selecting its 2012 presidential candidate was "not included in its statutes" and appeared very critical of this.

Yet it should be well known, as PRD president  Jesús Zambrano points out in today's papers, that PRD's National Congress - its highest organ, which meets around every three years - decided just a few weeks ago to accept this method - and anyone can duly go to the PRD's home page (http://www.prd.org.mx/portal/) and find the party's basic documents and congress proceedings for themselves.

Hence, I don't quite get Valdés' opposition. To recall, Valdés was elected a councilor and then IFE president with the PRD's blessing - I am not so sure he enjoys the same level of support today. That is not a good thing ahead of the 2012 election season.

PRI: When a picture says more than a thousand words

From www.cazadorgrafico.com.mx, via La Jornada: PRI candidate for governor Fausto Vallejo Figueroa, literally giving money to supporters in Zicuirán, Michoacán:

From La Jornada

Josefina crushes Cordero, crushes Creel

From a Milenio poll: Josefina Vázquez Mota leads widely among the PAN contenders for 2012.

From Milenio

The left's poll is over - on Friday we'll know

Pushing the D-day forward a tad, Marcelo Ebrard informed that on the coming Friday 11.11.11, the results of the poll that is to decide the left's candidate for 2012, will be known - to them at least.

The poll has been done, and does not involve any of the parties - it was arranged by two polling companies, and the agreement - questions, technical organizations, etc - was decided by AMLO and Ebrard alone.

Two days to wait. At least.

Senate iniatiative to regulate state debt

The PRD presented an initiative in the Mexican senate to regulate the debt of Mexico's state - essentially, to make debt contraction more transparent and avoid bankruptcy in public finances.

The measure is very likely inspired by the case of Coahuila, but many other states, the vast majority PRI led, are also in danger of financial collapse after having contracted far too much debt on their own.

From what I recall, this is essentially what many states in Brazil did as well as part of a process of de-centralization of power - though they ended up heavily indebted in the process, and eventually had to strike a deal with the federal government. If any reader has a good summary / recommended read about this period in Brazil, I'd appreciate a tip.

PRD's internal election, almost final chapter

PRD held what was to be the final leg of its internal elections Sunday.

However, it only succeeded in doing so in Veracruz, Zacatecas, and Mexico City - elections were cancelled in Oaxaca and Chiapas. As it were, René Bejarano, almost comically trying to look like a mafioso, called for a political trial of Governor Juan Sabines in Chiapas for allegedly interfering in the elections.

All in all 8, eight coincilors were elected from Veracruz, 10 from Zacatecas, and 46 from the PRD bastion Mexico City. Still, around 40 are yet to be elected from Oaxaca and Chiapas, as well as Michoacán, where the gubernatorial election had already ensured that the party election would be postponed.

Hopefully for the PRD, Mexico's electoral tribunal, which mandated the election following a complaint from a PRD senator, will accept that the party has completed, more or less, the process - the deadline was Nov. 15, and I strongly doubt the party is capable of arranging elections for a third time in Oaxaca and Chiapas already by next weekend.

Abortion, automatic excommunication

Archbishop Norberto Rivera, head of the Mexican church informs the people that any woman who has an abortion -any abortion, for any reason - will be automatically excommunicated from the Catholic church, as will anyone assisting her.

It takes quite of bit of chutzpah to take on the role of god's enforcer, especially when you have through the years consistently protected pedophiles and pederasts in the church - yet Rivera isn't exactly known for his temerity nor compassion for his flock. Now he takes it upon himself to decide who goes to hell, and who does not.

At least Víctor Sánchez Espinosa, archbishop of Puebla, is somewhat more reasonable, calling for women who have an abortion, either by their free will forced by third parties, not to be thrown in jail. 

Three way race in Michoacán, the atypical state

Marcelo Ebrard and Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas appeared with Silvano Aureoles Conejo, PRD's candidate for governor of Michoacán, for the campaign closing in Morelia, the state capital.

As this article in Milenio does a good job of outlining, this is truly a three-way race: PAN, PRI, and PRD all have a good chance of winning. PRD has the most extensive party structure and base, though it is hampered by the unpopular government of Leonel Godoy. PRI has the most money, and has been pouring in resources into the state, which it earlier declared as essential to winning the 2012 presidential race. PAN has the least developed party organization in Michoacán, but the candidate is president Calderón's sister, with big name recognition, and PAN has also dedicated enormous resources to win here, including repeated appearances by all its 2012 contenders. The PRD has complained that they have been competing not against a candidate, but against the federal government and its resources.

Rhetoric heats up in Michoacán following PAN mayor murder

* Luisa María Calderón Hinojosa, the president's sister who despite her promise to never run for office while her brother was president, is running to be governor of her home state Michoacán, attacked Governor Leonel Godoy of the PRD, essentially blaming him for the murder of PAN mayor Ricardo Guzmán Romero.

* The PRD, in turn,  is accusing PAN of taking advantage of Guzmán's murder for political gain.
Note that 28 mayors have been killed in Calderón's sexenio - and 20 since 2010 alone.

* PAN is accused of naked clientelism - by the federal FEPADE. The La Fiscalía Especializada en Delitos Electorales (Fepade), or the organ under the attorney general dedicated to investigating electoral abuses, to its credit moved against employees from SEDESOL or the federal social development secretariat, is it apparently was trying to hand out sacks of cement - 27 tons! - in return for voters giving them their voter ID number as well as a promise to vote for PAN.

The coming PRD split, 2: GAP leaves the PRD in Mexico State

In Mexico State, Higinio Martínez Miranda has led the faction Grupo de Acción Política since the PRD's founding. While it has much weakened in recent years, due to the rise of the ADN and Nueva Izquierda democratic socialist and social-democratic factions, it remained an important part of the PRD.

Yet now GAP has also declared it is leaving the party. And it does so in what is unfortunately a classic manner: It lost the party's internal elections, and rather than to accept its minority status - and the outcome of the election, of course - it is leaving the party, likely for the PT or Movimiento Ciudadano or, once it becomes an official party, AMLO's MORENA.

At this point in Mexico's political development, a split in the left is very damaging in the short run, but perhaps not so in the long run. Let's recall that the other "left" - and the quotation marks are warranted - parties PT and Movimiento Ciudadano, while bleeding support from the PRD, would likely both have disappeared from the landscape had it not been for AMLO allowing them to use him for electoral benefit.

The coming PRD split: Now IDN threatens to leave the party

IDN, the most discredited and corrupt of PRD's internal factions, is threatening to leave the party unless the party's internal state elections in Mexico State are annulled.

While obviously very damaging to the party in the short run - the IDN is among the largest of PRD's myriad of internal factions - I am increasingly moving to the conviction that given the discredit IDN has brought over the PRD (it is led by "Rubber band man" René Bejarano and his wife Dolores Padierna), it may be a price worth paying for the PRD if it wants to establish itself as a modern, socially liberal, left-wing party.

When will Moreira leave the PRI presidency?

On the scandal-ridden national president of PRI, Humberto Moreira:

Moreira: "I am not leaving, and even less so under pressure"
He continues to decry a "political lynching," though it should be pointed out that he has not even once given a straight answer to either 1) the exploding Coahuila debt under his governorship, and 2) the falsification of authorizations by congress to contract more debt, carried out by his functionaries, perhaps with his knowledge

Manlio Fabio Beltrones and Enrique Peña Nieto: Only Moreira will decided if he stays or not.

Hardly a ringing endorsement.

If PRI loses in Michoacán on Nov. 13, my bets are, Moreira's out.

Michoacán: Four mayors murdered since 2008

Since 2008, four mayors have been murdered on the job in Michoacán, which is celebrating its election in a tense atmosphere the coming Nov. 13. They are:

* Marcelo Ibarra Villa, Villa Madero, June 2008
* Octavio Manuel Carillo Castellanos, Vista Hermosa, February 2009
* Gustavo Sánchez Cervantes, Tancítaro, September 2010
* Ricardo Guzmán Romero, La Piedad, Novovember 2011

2006 backers of AMLO publish letter backing Ebrard 20212

Several high-profile AMLO backers in 2006 published a letter in various Mexican print media affirming their support for Ebrard in 2012.

They include:

José Woldenberg, Néstor García Canclini, Agustín Basave, Carmen Boullosa, Emmanuel Carballo, Horacio Franco, Jaime Labastida, Guadalupe Loaeza, Salvador Martínez della Rocca, Alejandro Moreno Toscano, Regina Orozco, Miguel Ángel Porrúa, Enrique Provencio, Marco Rascón, Luis Reygadas, Cecilia Soto, Xavier Velasco, and José María Yazpik.

Link to letter here

"Total coalition" on the left

PRD, Movimiento Ciudadano, and the PT will go for a "total coalition" in 2012, meaning they will compete with common candidates for not only the president, but also legislative lists, under a common alliance.
While this is a display of unity (albeit forced), it also means they will forgo a lot of party funding, as the coalition will not receive money according to the each individual party, but a common sum for all three.

Now, this is the plan. We'll see what happens to the "coalition" if there is a AMLO-Ebrard disagreement following the upcoming poll to decide the 2021 candidate.

Murdered mayor close to Calderón

The murdered Ricardo Guzmán Romero, mayor of La Piedad, was the coordinator of PAN's mayors in Michoacán. He was also close to President Felipe Calderón, and to his sister, "Cocoa," who is now seeking to become governor of Michoacán.

His murder appears a straight execution: A Jeep drove up to the mayor while he was busy putting up a banner, and gunned him down.

Michoacán is having elections on Nov. 13. So far, 1060 observers have been registered for the election, none of them foreign, and so far no special security/protection has been put in place to make sure they are not victims of organized crime on election day.

Michoacán PAN mayor murdered

A tragic and sad event just 11 days or so ahead of Michoacán's gubernatorial election:

Ricardo Guzmán Romero, a PAN mayor in La Piedad, was gunned down this evening.

This, only hours after interior secretary  José Francisco Blake Mora and Michoacán governor Leonel Godoy declared the elections would not be affected by the organized crime groups of the state.

2012 "poll of polls": PRI-PVEM 50%, PAN 28%, PRD 18%

From Milenio: These are the averages of a combined six polls when it comes to party preferences for 2012:

* PRI and Green Party: 50 percent
* PAN: 28 percent
* PRD: 18 percent

I am more than a bit confused by some additional data: Apparently, Ebrard has a 17-10 percent advantage over AMLO. But  "counting the independents, the difference is narrowing: AMLO has 31 points, while Ebrard has 24"? Does this mean only among the independents? Or the entire population + independents? If the latter, these are remarkable figure, though the first scenario seems far more likely. Maybe I just need more coffe.

Now, while earlier offering Nov. 15 as the day of decision, Ebrard and AMLO say polls will be made the coming weekend to decide the left's candidate. One company chosen by each, and a third to corroborate.

Nov. 15: D-Day for the Mexican left

By Nov. 15, the PRD informs, the party will choose its presidential candidate, through various polls.
Ebrard repeats he will back AMLO should AMLO come on top, and says he hopes AMLO will do the same should Ebrard be ahead. Every inch of me refuses to believe he will: I hope I am wrong.

PRI president Moreira hints at stepping down in February

Despite the growing scandal in Coahuila - an extreme amount of debt contracted that was, it seems, contracted partly illegally - former PRI governor and now national PRI president Humberto Moreira Valdés said he will remain PRI president - even though his former treasurer was again just ordered behind bars for fallegedly falsifying documents while Moreira was still governor.

Moreira did hint that there might be "changes" in February, after PRI picks its presidential candidate. He has continued a very ill-fitting "I am a victim" posture since this scandal first surfaced. PRD calls for his resignation as PRI president to face the accusations head-on. PAN is not calling for him to step down (and perhaps wisely, as this is bringing increasing bad publicity to the PRI), but to cooperate with the investigation.