Carlos Salinas new political activism continues: Now in Yucatán

The "return" of Carlos Salinas to active politics in Mexico has long been heralded - following AMLO, Salinas is the mover behind every one of Mexico´s ills - yet the claim appears increasingly justified. Not only did he issue yet-another book seeking to varnish his tattered presidency; according to Milenio, his recent visit to Yucatán, where he met with his admirer, PRI Governor  Ivonne Ortega Pacheco, had as its further purpose to entice Ortega Pacheco to be Humberto Moreira´s running mate for the PRI presidency, as secretary general.

It makes perfect sense: Ortega Pacheco is in many ways the female equivalent of the Mexico State governor; like Peña Nieto, she has spent an exorbitant amount on the media promotion of her image; like Peña Nieto, she has also used her majority in the local state congress to steamroll a range of legislative initiative, ignoring input from the opposition. The most recent example of this happened just days ago, when the congress approved, in relation with the state budget, a whopping 217 articles in 48 hours.

Tlaxcala approves Law for the Protection of Migrants

Kudos to the state congress of Tlaxcala, which unanimously approved a law designed to protect migrants, both those leaving Tlaxcala for the United States, as well as those of other nationalities passing through or residing in Tlaxcala. Small it may be yet nonteheless a  significant step forward for the protection of migrants human rights. The congress called upon incoming PRI governor Mariano González Zarur not to leave the law a "dead letter" in his sexenio.

For 2011: Prriority for the PRD's deputies to "defend IFE's autonomy"

The PRD, in outlining its legislative priorities for 2011, put "defend IFE's autonomy" high on its list. The party is accusing the PRI of trying to grab control of the Federal Electoral Institute through the nominations to the vacant positions as IFE councilors: PRI is seeking to name two of the three councilors, leaving one for PAN and none for the PRD. This is a highly serious omen: Keep in mind that PAN and the PRI's steamrolling of earlier IFE appointments and leaving out the PRD was a key ingredient in the 2006 "perfect storm," where the party had less than full confidence in the autonomy of the IFE going into that year's presidential election for the simple reason that PAN and PRI had irresponsibly left the PRD out of the negotiations.

Should PRI, through temporary legislative alliances, be left with two more IFE councilors... expect 2006 to be repeated as farce in 2012.

Carlos Salinas 959-page book not on my reading list

As usually in Mexico I stock up on recent interesting books on current politics. So far I've aquired the most recent book by Carmen Aristegui on the child-raping fascist Marcial Maciel - great for bedtime stories - Soledad Loaza's recent collection of articles on the PAN, and Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas' recent memoirs. Yet speaking of memoirs, one book I will shy away from for many reasons is Carlos Salinas' recent desperate 959-page attempt to reinvent himself and defend his presidency. Yet my decision was not made merely to save a few pesos, or for ideological reasons: The book appears an absolute piece of junk, combining petty attacks on many of Mexico's intellectuals with an array of stuff that is simply made up.

A few cases in point:
- Salinas attacks the presidency of Fox and his first foreign minister, Jorge Castañeda for having voted in favor of the Iraq War! Where on earth does he get this from? First, as Castañeda points out, Mexico never voted - there was never a vote in UN, to recall, despite or in spite of Colin Powell's pathetic "presentation" of WMDs - yet more importantly, Fox was the entire time against Bush's war on Iraq.
- He is accusing Castañeda of having presented the thesis of Mexico as a "failed state" - though Castañeda has consistently argued against this view.

Now I admit I am not the world's greatest admirer of Jorge Castañeda, who, despite of many notable insights, in addition to being a bit of a pompous windbag has also opined far too often on topics of which he has very little knowledge. Yet compared with Salinas, he is an intellectual giant.

If Salinas can't even get such basic facts straights, or is as stupid as to knowingly and blatantly distorting them in this manner, his apologia is hardly worth anyone's time, and your 300 pesos should rather be spent elsewhere.

Yet another IFE ruling in Peña Nieto's favor to be rejected by TEPJF

As noted earlier, I've grown increasingly wary of the IFE's decisions the past year or so as far too many have appeared to favor PRI and Mexico State Governor Enrique Peña Nieto, only to be rejected by Mexico´s highest electoral court, the TEPJF.

Yet another case in point: Earlier this month, the IFE notoriously deemed an ad by the PRD, where the party argued Peña Nieto was "fearful" of a political alliances, to be denigrating of his image (!). The PRD protested, and continued showing the ad, while it bleeped out the offensive phrase.
Yet what happened? The TEPJF on Dec. 24 (how i s that for work ethic!) ruled against the IFE, and ordered the ad to be allowed to air. The decision was not based on the merits of IFE´s argument but addressed a technical issue, but the point remains: The IFE to me has appeared far to trigger happy in censuring ads or "spots" against PRI and Peña Nieto, and has again been admonished by the TEPJF for doing so.

The PRD´s representative to IFE, Rafael Hernández, has become increasingly vocal in expressing frustration against the and its alleged breach of the "principle of neutrality.

On Dec. 13, IFE also rejected a complaint against Enrique Peña Nieto and then-Interior Minister Fernando Gómez-Mont for having made a pact where PAN agreed not to ally with PRD in gubernatorial elections, ostensibly in return for PRI backing of the federal budget. IFE declared ifself incompetente or not having jurisdiction to deal with the complaint filed by PRD, PT and Convergencia. The parties then announced they will also take this case to the TEPJF. Should the TEPJF again rule against the IFE... I believe the left may be well justified in smelling a rat.

2011: What is to come

An excellent overview of the political relation of forces in Mexico, as well as the upcoming electoral calendar can be found here.

As 2010 comes to a close, it is worth noting that the PRI now controls 19 of Mexico's 32 federal entities. With these states - and using the state as the entity for measurement -  the old ruling party governs 59 percent of Mexico's population; the PRD governs 20 percent; and the PAN 18 percent. It is also notable that the PRD and PAN, thanks to their unprecedented state-level coalitions to wrest power from the PRI in states that had never been governed by an opposition party (82 years of hegemony), wrested control from the PRI of 11 percent of Mexico's population - thanks to its gubernatorial victories in Oaxaca, Puebla, and Sinaloa.

2011 will see gubernatorial elections in Baja California Sur, Coahuila, Mexico State, Guerrero, Michoacán and Nayarit. The PRD leadership is seeking further state coalitions with PAN in Coahuila, Nayarit and, to be sure, Mexico State, all of which are adamantly opposed by AMLO. Given his rejection of the PRD leadership as "traitors" and active campaigning against the coalitions, will AMLO succeed in sabotaging them in 2011?

Non-aggression pact Ebrard-Peña Nieto

Also of note recently is the declaration by Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard that he and Mexico State Governor Enrique Peña Nieto has agreed to a a pact to "avoid conflicts" on the road to the 2012 presidential election. As far as I can see, no concrete details of this non-aggression pact has been revealed, though it is certainly an admission that the 2012 race is well on its way, and that its temperature is rising rapidly.

Ebrard also assured there will be no confrontation between him and AMLO in the coming year. I've also been told that pigs may indeed fly. We shall see.

The PRD's new party president: Candidates ready

As announced on Dec 17, all of PRD´s main party factions agreed that the election for the successor to current PRD president Jesús Ortega will take place at the latest on March 19, and that the winner will immediately take office. This was a step forward: Right up until the last minute, the "radicals" in the PRD, most of whom are supporters of AMLO more than they are true backers of the PRD, threatened physical violence to force Ortega to step down. This particular segment of the PRD, led above all by the scandal-prone corriente IDN of René Bejarano-Dolores Padierna, has issued similar threats, and acted upon then, on numerous other occasions. It should be noted here that the March election is actually a concession from the Ortega camp: After all, he was elected for a three-year tenure in March 2008, yet was unable to take office until the end of that year due to the failure of the "radicals" (the quotation mark is there for a purpose: Many of them are highly socially conservative) to accept Ortega´s victory.

Three main candidates have now been lined up: Jesús Zambrano, national deputy for the party and member of Ortega´s social-democratic Nueva Izquierda wing; Hortensia Aragón, current secretary general of the party and of the Foro Nuevo Sol faction, which is currently allied with Ortega though it has been quite opportunistic in recent years in order to maintain its presence in the Mexico City government; and Dolores Padierna of the Izquierda Democrática Nacional. 

The method by which the new party president will be elected has not yet been determined, though one alternative aired is by a 2/3 vote in the PRD's national council, where Ortega and his allies has a majority but not a 2/3 one. 

My own thoughts: The party must at all costs avoid a divisive election by the mass base, which on every occasion has proved a disaster. Yet as El Universal notes, merely agreeing on the type of election brings the risk of rupture in itself. This is, in essence, the product of the the uneasy marriage between social democratic and left-leaning party builders on the one hand, and the anti-institutional and often populist movement-advocates, on the other, which has been the main source of the PRD's internal woes ever since its birth in 1989.

Michoacán and the PRD

Following the dramatic attacks by La Familia Michoacana on particular Dec. 8-10, and with the backdrop of the desafuero or removal of legislative immunity of the PRD deputy Julio Godoy Toscano, half-brother of Michoacán Governor Leonel Godoy, the PRD held an emergency conference of sorts in Morelia where the party closed ranks behind the governor. In what was named the Declaración de Michoacán, much of the top PRD leadership from all camps in the party in seven points reiterated its support for the fight against organized crime,  regardless of the party colors and, pointedly, family ties of those involved. At the same time, the party strongly backed Leonel Godoy, and again called for the federal government to "rethink the strategy" in its war on the drug gangs.

Notably, Michoacán was recently deemed by Mexico´s national human rights commission (Comisión Nacional de los Derechos Humanos, CNDH) to be the most insecure entity in the country, given the level of complaints filed with the CNDH: 265 (vs. 240 in Chihuahua), of which 130 against the defense ministry, 107 against the Federal police, and 21 against the attorney general´s office, mainly on issues such as illegal searches and cruel treatment of citizens.

I do not wish for a moment to downplay the possible human rights violations taking place in Michoacán, but there seems to me to be a bit of a dubious methodology in place here: The more complaints = more human rights violations.For onem the high number of complaints may merely reflect a more active civil society or, less benignly, a more organized campaign by La Familia to push citizens to lodge such complaints. After all, the group has organized plenty of "demonstrations" against the presence of the military and the federal police. Also, as La Jornada reports, many of the complaints were also lodged against entities such as IMSS and ISSTE. Yet most obvious of all: A claim that Michoacán is worse than Chihuahuha in terms of human rights violations should strike even the most casual observer of Mexico as utterly absurd. It is perhaps quite understandable that the PRD, through its Secretary General Hortensia Aragón, would recently warn against an "ambush" by the federal government against Michoacàn, a state where President Felipe Calderón, lest we forget, hopes to see his sister Luisa María elected governor in 2011.

Michoacán, 2010

First things first: Many thanks for the kind greetings for my wedding. Despite highly aggressive attacks carried out by La Familia Michoacana  - they burned buses, cars, and gas stations in order to block every exit from Morelia just days before our big day - things passed very smoothly, and we've spent the past weeks in Michoacàn, as well as a bi/centennial road trip to Zacatecas (the most famous battle of the Revolution, Pancho Villa's June 23, 1914 toma de Zacatecas), Aguascalientes (site of Teatro Morelos, where the famous Convención de Aguascalientes took place Oct-Nov 1914, which we were lucky to get to see despite it being usually closed to visitors), Dolores de Hidalgo (where it all began with the Grito de Dolores on Sept. 16 2010), as well as San Miguel de Allende, birthplace of the Ignacio Allende, who in revisionist accounts appear a far more important organizer and implementor of the 1810 than the honorable Hidalgo. A fantastic trip, though traveling on Michoacán car plates warranted a bit too many uncomfortable stares.

(On a side note: Regarding traveling in Mexico, Malcolm Beith has an excellent post to which I wholeheartedly concur, and I take the liberty to emphasize two points: Avoid the carretera libre as much as you can, and do not drive at night: After spending three weeks here, the main change from my last visit this summer is that now everyone, from family to neighbors to friends, seem to have a story to tell of highway robberies at night, even on the autopista de cuota, so this is one thing I have definitely avoided)

Be that as it may: On the last day of 2010 and the 2000s, I wish everyone the very best for the new year, with hopes that the next decade will be far better than the one we are leaving behind. Thank you very much for reading.

The Inconvenient Brother: Julio Godoy Toscano loses congressional immunity

The Mexican lower house of congress voted to remove the fuero or immunity from legal persecution from the "inconvenient" (half)brother of Governor Leonel Gody, Julio Godoy Toscano, national deputy for the PRD. The vote was massive: 384-2, with 21 abstentions. Godoy, who reportedly has already removed his things from his office in San Lázaro, thus lost his legislative immunity and can face the criminal charges against him presented by the PGR, the attorney general's office. Most of the PRD deputies voted as well in favor: The party wants to get this case over as soon as possible, to avoid the negative publicity ahead of the upcoming gubernatorial elections in Michoacán last year. With the fuero removed, hopefully Mexicans will know eventually whether Godoy Toscano is indeed guilty, or if this is, as Godoy himself has argued, a political persection.

Guerrero: The wife did it, or persecution of Armando Chavarría's widow?

I've written before about the murder of PRD legislator Armando Chavarría in Guerrero last year.
Now, another turn of events: The state prosecutor's office have ordered an investigation of the assets of Chavarría's widow, Martha Obeso Cázares, specifically properties in her name. One of the lines of investigation of Chavarría's  murder is, to be sure, that his wife did it, though so far no evidence has surfaced in public. Obeso Cázares claims it is a pure persecution by the attorney general's office and Governor Zeferino Torreblanca, with the aim to intimidate her and to divert the investigation of the real killers.
Did Chavarría's widow really do it? Or is this just the revenge of Torreblanca for all her critiques of him, his administration, and the investigation of her husband's murder?

Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas opens up for PRD-PAN coalition

While La Jornada and Milenio covered the event quite differently, to put it mildly, of note is that in Cárdenas' public appearance at the anniversary of his mother's death, the old caudillo, while reiterating his opposition to PAN-PRD alliances, opened up for the possibility of such alliances as long as the candidate is from the PRD.

This, in stark opposition to his one-time protégé AMLO, who since 2009 on has rejected any such tactical alliance to defeat the PRI. Indeed, Cárdenas appeared even to open up for a 2012 presidential candidate of the PRD, backed by PAN. Of note here was the participation in the event of Manuel Camacho, the electoral alliance alchemist par excellance.

Guerrero gubernatorial election: Also about Ebrard vs. Peña Nieto.

Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard continues his active campaigning for the left´s coalition candidate in Guerrero, Ángel Aguirre River, who in campaign appearances with Ebrard promises to implement the same social programs Ebrard, and before him Andrés Manuel López Obrador, has carried out with much success in Mexico City. Amidst worrying reports that the electoral campaign is getting ever more tense and that violence has broken out between supporters of Aguirre and of PRI´s candidate Manuel Añorve Baños, Ebrard directly accused PRI of trying to buy the vote in old fashion with handouts of cement and building materials.

Governor of Mexico State, Enrique Peña Nieto, will also appear soon in state capital Chilpancingo,  Añorve Baños announced. The state election in Guerrero, while also highly significant of itself, will thus clearly be a prelude to 2012: Aguirre vs. Añorve also means Ebrard vs. Peña Nieto.

Aguachile is tying the knot in Mexico

Aguachile has fled the cold winds of the north for the warm embrace of central Mexico, and not just for research this time:  I will get married in a few days, and as I am busy running around putting the final touches on everything from coordinating the mariachis to maintaining bountiful supplies of tequila, blogging will likely be sporadic for some time. I hope you will all have a wonderful December!

AMLO, asked if he would decline for Ebrard: "Would you? No, right?"

AMLO, asked by a reporter if he would consider declining for Ebrard, responded: "Would you? No, right?"
Nevermind that AMLO continues with his standard "whoever is ahead in the polls" line, which he knows is nonsense: AMLO will run in 2012 even with Ebrard as the PRD candidate. I'm willing to take bets here.

In the same appearance, AMLO referred to the leader of the PRD, Jesús Ortega, as a "traitor," for allying with the PAN in certain states. Yet what about the cases when AMLO himself did this as PRD leader? AMLO even considered allying with PAN in 2000, to recall.
Yet his hypocrisy isn't even the main point here. What does it serve to name someone a "traitor"? Why this harsh, violent language? What does one, indeed, do with "traitors"? My first association here is death by firing squad.

In the context of the blood bath that is now soaking Mexico, with 30,000 or more killed in Calderón's war, such language is certainly not worthy of anyone thinking himself presidenciable.

The Craziest One is dead: Government confirms death of Nazario Moreno González

The Mexican government confirms the death of Nazario Moreno González, nicknamed "El Chayo" or "El Más Loco," a man usually considered the founder and leader of La Familia Michoacana.

I don't usually write directly about Mexico's ill-termed "drug war," yet as I am currently in Michoacán and specifically in what has often been described as one of La Familia Michoacana´s stronghold, I can only note that yes, bullets have surely been flying around here the past couple of days.

Baja California Sur: AMLO calls for Mexicans not to vote

In a press conference, AMLO made it clear he does not support the PRD´s gubernatorial candidate in the upcoming state elections Baja California Sur, Luis Armando Díaz, even though the PRD here has not gone in an alliance with the PAN. Notably, AMLO also called for the Sudcalifornianos not to vote at all.

This, again, in stark contrast to Marcelo Ebrard, who backs him.

There's something rotten in IFE

While I don´t follow Mexico's Federal electoral institute (IFE) and its Electoral tribunal (TEPJF) as closely as I should, there seems to me to be quite a bit of anecdotal evidence for two trends:

1) IFE has tended to absolve Governor of Mexico State Enrique Peña Nieto for most every complaint against him, while ordering his opponents to stop many of their ads against him
2) The Electoral tribunal has castigated IFE for many of these decisions.

The IFE operates according to guidelines that it cannot be held responsible for, of course - they were drawn up by congress. While the most recent 2007-8 electoral reform had many positive aspects to it, it is now apparent it also contained quite a few flaws, most apparently the inability - and for now I emphasize inability over unwillingness - of IFE to stop the incessant official propaganda and publicity in Mexico State in favor of its governor.

(By the way, the PRI-led state congress just approved in committee another hike, bringing the sum up, according to PRD, to 1.6 billion pesos)

However, IFE has been quite capable of interpreting its guidelines to ban ads from the PRD or other opposition parties against Peña Nieto. This has happened on a range of occasions, including just a few days ago, when IFE ordered the PRD to take out a line from a political ad that was deemed "denigrating" toward Peña Nieto´s image. The words in question? "Peña Nieto fears the political alliances" [of PAN and PRD].

Really? This line is "denigrating" the governor of Mexico State? I have a hunch that last word is not said in this case. Why? Because the TEPJF unanimously again ordered IFE to reopen another complaint from the PAN against Peña Nieto's government propaganda in relation with his fifth informe, publicity also transmitted in Guerrero and Baja California Sur (upcoming elections), which the IFE rejected. to rule on. It's just one more case of TEPJF ordering IFE to revisit an early decision - hardly dramatic in itself - but it just happens to be on Peña Nieto.

Something is happening here but you don't know what it is. Do you, Mr. Jones.

AMLO's farce in Mexico State: Yeidckol Polevnsky would decline for Encinas

While Alejandro Encinas has repeatedly denied the possibility of being the candidate of the left in Mexico State, for the very simple reason that he does not meet the residency requirement of actually having lived in the state for quite some time, he apparently is having a change of heart these days, following rumors of heavy pressure from AMLO given the postulation of Yeidckol Polevnsky as his candidate, which has led to a rebellion among AMLO´s own ranks. It is hard to see that this will succeed, and moreover, this also would depend on whether the PRD wants him as its candidate: As Jesús Ortega, head of the PRD, succinctly stated regarding the candidacies: "it is not a matter of appearances for worshipers;  it is a democratic decision of party members." In other words, even if Encinas should magically find out that he still is eligible, his nomination is still not a shoe-in

Even so: Consider this. Yeidckol Polevnsky just declared  she would not hesitate to decline and back his bid. So when AMLO's "she's the one" handpicked candidate declares that she would immediately decline should another, and better, candidate appear, what does that say about her candidacy?

I am hard pressed to think of a more stark admission of her sub par qualities as a candidate.

Mexico in a nutshell: Don't drink and drive, unless it's for a real party!

I'm on my way to Mexico for the holidays, and one article in today's Milenio on a common practicise during this season I think captures a slice of mexicanidad to the fullest. The use of alcoholometers is getting increasingly widespread, given the admittedly very real problem. Yet the Secretariat of Public Security announced that program would be temporarily suspended on two of the biggest drinking nights of the year, Dec. 25 or Jan. 1 - so yes, on the two nights when we are likely to see the most drinking and driving, the program has officially been declared suspended...  so happy holidays, and salud!

Madero backs alliance with PRD in Mexico State

Not a surprise, but now official: The newly elected national president of the Partido Acción Nacional, Gustavo Madero, declared he is fully supporting an alliance with the PRD in Mexico City to stop the PRI, noting that AMLO´s incessant attacks and campaigning against a PAN-PRD alliance "definitely favors the PRI."

I cannot see how one can argue against that.

A boost for Marcelo Ebrard: Best Mayor in the World award

Welcome news for Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard: The NGO City Mayors, following a long process of voting among a wide list of nominees, has announced that Ebrard finally received the award as Best Mayor in the World. The foundation characterized Ebrard as "a liberal reformer and pragmatist who has never shied away from challenging Mexico’s orthodoxy. He has championed women’s and minorities rights and has become an outspoken and internationally respected advocate on environmental issues."

This sounds to me just like what Mexico needs for president in 2012.

El Universal poll of preferences for president 2012

A poll for El Universal on presidential and party preferences can be found here.

Nothing surprising:

- Enrique Peña Nieto is far ahead when ranked against any other candidate, though he certainly does not hold a majority - from 39.4 to 41.7
- AMLO is still the candidate with highest name recognition, yet with a very high level of rejection from the electorate - indeed, the one of only two possible candidates for which the level of rejection surpasses that of  approval - 49.2 to 44.5 percent. The other? Juan Molinar Horcasitas, the hapless minister of communications, with 64.2 rejection to 23.6 approval

The PRD's "G-8" group: A gift to Enrique Peña Nieto that just keeps on giving

G-8 is the name of eight factions in the PRD adamantly opposed to the current leadership of Jesús Ortega and his social-democratic Nueva Izquierda faction, which together with his allies Alianza Democrática Nacional and Foro Nuevo Sol have majority control of the party. Yet this does not matter to the "radicals" of the G-8, who repeatedly has demonstrated an utter lack of ability or willingness to accept the results of  votes or elections that do not favor them, resorting instead to coercioan and outright physical aggression to get their will through.

Now, the G-8, which are ultra-loyal to Andrés Manuel López Obrador (though many for very pragmatic and opportunistic reasons), have declared they will not wait until March, when a new PRD leader will be elected, but will physically attack the PRD headquarters where Ortega's office is located, and moreover seek to have Ortega kicked out of the PRD altogether, and also to have the secretary general of the PRD, Hortensia Aragón, removed.

What is one to make of these tactics? They certainly reveal a segment of the party that is simply unwilling to accept any defeats, yet far to willing to resort to violence. They are profoundly anti-democratic at heart. Ortega refers to them as reminiscent of the brownshirts of Nazi Germany, and the comparison is sadly not far off.

The most important of the G-8 group is the infamous Izquierda Democrática Nacional (IDN), created by René Bejerano, who remains its leader though he himself was kicked out/renounced from the PRD after the dollar-stuffing scandals of 2004. Ortega has accused Bejarano of being behind the latest offensive, as well as other lopezobradoristas such as Gerardo Fernández Noroña, and Mario Di Costanzo, and notably Mexico State governor Enrique Peña Nieto.

What is clear is that Dolores Padierna wants to be become the next PRD president, which will surely doom the party given her abysmal public image. Moreover, given that Mexican voters are long fed up with the intolerance and violence of the more radical elements of the PRD-AMLO backers, and above all of the incessant infighting of the party, the current debacle will certainly have only one sure winner: Peña Nieto.

Guerrero gubernatorial elections: AMLO (conditionally) backs Ángel Aguirre

A highly significant event in Guerrero: The candidacy of Ángel Aguirre received a highly significant endorsement when Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who still attracts sizable support among the PRD mass base, came out backing the PRD-PT-Convergencia candidate - of sorts, at least.

Following what was euphemistically termed a "public vote" - the mechanism practiced by AMLO where he "asks," in a highly plebiscitarian fashion whether his supports backs his proposal, and where a sufficiently loud "Yes!" counts as affirmation, AMLO in a mass meeting in Guerrero state capital Chilpancingo said he would back Ángel Aguirre, if Aguirre signed on to AMLO's "Ten Basic Compromises," essentially extending the AMLO-era social programs when he was Mexico City mayor, to Guerrero.

This is very much a moot point: Marclo Ebrard, who has continued and developed much AMLO's programs and created a range of new ones, has already appeared with Aguirre where the candidate has promised to take Ebrards social programs to Guerrero. Moreover, Aguirre has also said he opposes the building of the La Parota dam, a huge hydroelectric power project, given the low compensation for people affected by the construction. AMLO's backing of Aguirre is as such "conditioned" on his continued rejection of this project. So why do it in the first place? Given that Aguirre is not running in coalition with the PAN - anathema to AMLO - there is no obvious reason why he wouldn't back Aguirre, yet to me the very public "I'll back you if you do this" declaration is principally meant as AMLO staking out "ownership" of Aguirre as "his" candidate as well.

PAN's presidential election: Illusion of unity shattered despite declination of Gil for Gustavo Madero

The internal elections in the Partido Acción Nacional (PAN) for its new party president for the next three years, a highly significant political event on its own, was given added importance because it was the first elections in five years that actually saw what appears to have been a real competition, unlike the previous dedazos of former party presidents Germán Martínez and César Nava. Yet the two front runners, Gustavo Madero and Roberto Gil, were both considered Calderón's candidates, and in essence, the new CEN (Comité Ejecutivo Nacional) will clearly be loyally calderonista. 

Things seemed on the surface calm Saturday, with one exception: Former party president Manuel Espino, recently expelled from the party, tried to elbow himself in to the PAN compound in Mexico City with hundreds of his followers, yet was told that he would be not allowed to vote, despite the regulation that all former party presidents will have a lifetime seat on the PAN council, which elects the party president.

As the voting rounds progressed, when it became clear that Gustavo Madero was picking up the most votes, Roberto Gil announced he would also decline in the name of party unity, making Madero the winner. The immediate question was, of course: What would Gil get in return for his declination?

Now we know: Gil was apparently promised a significant chunk of the PAN's 40-strong executive committee, as the new president has the right to appoint 2/3 of these. Now Gil claims that Madero failed to keep such a bargain. Madero responded that this is "false," and also refused to affirm that any such agreement actually existed.

The new CEN will have quite a few notable members, such as:
* Luisa María Calderón Hinojosa - yep, the president's sister, who wants to be Michoacán governor
* Cecilia Romero, who was also a candidate for the presidency and represents El Yunque
* Jorge Ocejo, head of the "Rightwing International," Organización Demócrata Cristiana de América
* Maximiliano Córtazar, former presidential spokesperson
* Mariana Gómez del Campo, head of the PAN's legislative group in the Mexico City assembly
* Federal Secretary of Public Administration Salvador Vega Casillas
* Federal Secretary of Communications Juan Molina Horcasitas
* Governor of Morelos,  Marco Antonio Adame,
* Governor of Guanajuato, Juan Manuel Oliva.

In other words, one should make no mistake: This is a calderonista executive committee, through and through, and Madero - a man with the charisma of a grey rock - will very likely be a highly loyal servant of the Mexican President.

Madero proposed 27 out of the 40 members, with the national council the rest, and this appears a rough measure of strength:

- Maderistas, 20
- Cecilia Romero and the yunquistas,  8
- Gil, only 6

It has not yet been decided who will head the powerful position of secretary general, but likely it will be Cecilia Romero, also a close friend of and ultra-loyal to Calderón. Should this happen, Gil, who thought one of his people deserved this secretariat, will not be happy, and more trouble may be expected.

More details here: La Jornada, El Universal, Milenio

Nayarit 2011 elections: PAN-PRD alliance official, of sorts. For AMLO, history repeated as farce

The national presidents of PRD and PAN, Jesús Ortega and César Nava respectively, signed a "letter of intent" where the parties committed to maintain an electoral alliance for the upcoming gubernatorial elections in Nayarit, regardless of whether the candidate will be a perredista or panista.

PRD has a very strong card: Federal deputy Guadalupe Acosta Naranjo, a very congenial man who tends to be popular with most everyone and has moreover a reputation as an effective leader. Acosta Naranjo was just granted a leave of absence from the Chamber of Deputies, and has already started criss-crossing the state, which will hold elections July 3, 2011.

However, the wife of former governor Antonio Echavarría, Martha Elena García, also a PRD deputy, has declared she will also run for the nomination. To recall, PRD ran Nayarit 1999-2005, when AMLO enticed Antonio Echavarría to dump the PRI to join the PRD and run for governor under a broad alliance that also included the PAN  - yes, the party that AMLO is now loudly declaring it is impossible to ally with anywhere at all given "principled differences." AMLO has, of course, opposed a PAN-PRD alliance in Nayarit in 2011. Of course, since 1999, much water has run under the bridge, such as the 2006 elections, which AMLO claims cheated him from victory. To be upset at PAN for 2006 is of course quite understandably, if you truly believe a fraud took place. Yet claiming "principled differences" is just pure hypocrisy, given AMLO's promotion of the previous PAN-PRD alliance in Nayarit.

Note that Martha Elena García already in 2005 wanted to become governor to succeed her husband - which should make alarm bells of nepotism ring loudly. The kicker: She was then not a PRD member, nor a PRI member, but sought the PAN nomination (!) - only the arch-opportunistic party Convergencia backed her candidacy then, which she desisted from, and renounced from the PAN. Her PRD credentials are, to put it mildly, wafer thin. Yet don't be surprised if AMLO backs her nomination: Guadalupe Acosta Naranjo, a man who has never been a PRI or PAN member yet with a life-long pedigree on the political left, is also a member of the social-democratic PRD faction Nueva Izquierda, which AMLO loathes.

AMLO: Calderón lies about Chàvez ties. He is probably right

According to leaked cable 231175, part of the Wikileaks cache, Calderón expressed worry to the United States that Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez was financing AMLO's and PRD's campaign - and as late as October 2009, reiterated fears of Venezuelan meddling in Mexican politics

To recall, during the 2006 electoral campaign this was turned into open swift boat-style campaign ads, where AMLO was deemed a "Danger to Mexico" with images of Chávez imposed. According to AMLO, "Calderón is a pathological liar." I am hard pressed to object.  Absolutely no evidence has ever surfaced that the PRD or AMLO received as much as a bolivar in support from Chávez: It was a lie then, and it remains a lie today.

Yet why would Calderón still suggest this to the U.S. embassy? Two alternatives - you make your pick:

1) Calderón truly believed Chávez was backing AMLO financially, and the Wikileaks as such merely reflect this fear.

2) Calderón did know this claim was false, yet still wanted the United States to believe Chávez was backing AMLO; the Wikileaks cable as such really reflects that Calderón wanted the U.S to hear.

(Not that anyone should be forced to prove a negative  - "prove to me that God did not create the earth in six days" - it think the Chávez-AMLO link is most easily dismissed from the fact that AMLO cares absolutely nothing at all about foreign relations, and hasn't the slightest interest in other leftwing governments of the region. One anecdote: During the infamous desafuero, or where Fox disgraced himself by trying to keep AMLO out of the presidential contest, then-ambassador from Brazil and a major big shot in the Brazilian PT wanted to hand over a letter to AMLO where Lula expressed his strong support for AMLO, yet AMLO didn't even take the time to meet him. Another story: When Bolivian President Evo Morales visited Mexico a few months back, AMLO didn't even take time off from his nth "tour-of-every-municipality" to meet him, because frankly, he doesn't give a damn.)

Quintana Roo passes anti-trafficking law: 45 years for culprits

The state congress in Quintana Roo unanimously passed an anti-human trafficking law that stipulates up to 45 years in prison for the crime, which the state, given its location heavily developed tourism industry,  is particularly vulnerable to. The law began as an initiative by PRD state legislator Luz María Beristáin Navarrete: Credit where credit's due.

"He wanted to fuck him over" confirmed by Fox

Back in 2007, Proceso in an excerpt from the Jorge Castañeda-Rubén Aguilar book La Diferencia revealed that, according to his former functionaries, "He wanted to fuck him over": Fox wanted to do everything possible to destroy AMLO's presidential ambitions. With the failed desafuro, Fox certainly battered his own democratic credentials.

The battering continues, and yet again it is self inflicted: In an interview with Mario Campos, she asks the former president: "Did you load the dice against AMLO?" And Fox responds:

"Yes certainly, to whatever extent I could, and it is democratic, and for that I say, as I've said before, it was a second win for me."

Call it what you want, but don't call it democratic. It is simply remarkable how Fox himself continues to tear down what remains of his image as the harbinger of democracy in Mexico.

Finally, the AMLO-Ebrard break: "The mafia" wants Ebrard to win

It will not be easy to pinpoint exactly the "day" or "moment" of the AMLO-Ebrard break - Ebrard's campaigning on behalf of the PRD-PAN alliances in the summer of 2010, AMLO's highly public rejection of an alliance with PAN in Mexico state, or a range of other smaller events that each could be interpreted as the break.

Yet to me, yesterday's event certainly counts as definitive : In Soledad de Graciano Sánchez, in the state of Luis Potosí, ahead of a meeting with his supporters, AMLO gave an interview where he expressed certainty that he would win the PRD presidential nomination, and then came the shocker: With regards to a possible Ebrard victory in the struggle for the nomination, this is what the mafia wants. 


So the bad guys - Salinas et al - wants Ebrard to win the nomination, and not AMLO. Forget about sharing a projects; it really is about personalities. And when the day comes that Ebrard wins... expect AMLO to denounce his victory as a fraud and orchestrated by the mafia.

With apologies for the theatrics: Consider the AMLO-Ebrard break as finalized.

Institutional innovation: Cué proposes recall referendum

In his inaugural speech yesterday day, Gabino Cué announced he would send a proposal to congress for "revocation of mandate," or simply put the mechanism of a recall referendum.


This is excellent news. I am a strong critic of the excessive length of the term of governors in Mexico, which in most cases is six years, and a recall referendum seems like an excellent tool if the desired goal is indeed to introduce more accountability in the political system. While the details of Cué's proposal are not known as yet, these typically involve a petition by a certain percentage of the electorate, which would turn it over to the government, who would then, if the petition is valid, call for a referendum where people are asked whether they want the sitting government out or not.


The very idea of a recall referendum, if used responsibly, is quite an institutional innovation. Credit must go here to Hugo Chávez in Venezuela, who, as far as I know, was the first country on earth to implement this mechanism, and actually allowed one to be held. So far, from what I gather, only Bolivia and Ecuador, have followed suit in their new constitutions.


One final line from Cué:
"Woe to those  who under my term will but their personal well being ahead of the Oaxacan people!"


Ojalá que sí.

Damning Indictment of Calderón: Even before 2008, poverty way up

It's been known that the 2008 economic crisis hit Mexico far worse than other countries in the Western hemisphere. Now, however, the UN's Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) / Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL)'s recent publication, "Social panorama of Latin America," published this November, reveals that poverty went up from 31.7 percent of the population in 2006, to 34.8 percent in 2008 - and extreme poverty, from 8.7 to 11.2 - this, all before the crisis hit Mexico.


(La Jornada has in this regard an interview with the Mexican Alicia Bárcena, who is the Chile-based executive secretary of ECLAC/CEPAL, where she expands on recent social developments in Mexico).


I can think of no other way to read these figures than as a highly negative judgment of Calderón's socio-economic policies.

PRD takes Ley Peña to the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights

PRD has decided to take the Supreme Court's decision to approve the "Ley Peña" to the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights, for violating the party's political rights.

Luis Sánchez Jiménez, PRD's leader in Mexico state, qualified the law as "repressive," and former  Supreme Court minister Juventino Castro y Castro, now a PRD national deputy, qualified the ruling as an "impediment" to exercise free political rights. Jesús Zambrano, PRD deputy and vice president of the Chamber of Deputies, backed the decision to take it to the to the IACHR/CIDH, which appears in all essence as futile and rather symbolic move more than anything else. 

In defense of PRI - of sorts. The return of the PRI as a "tragedy"

In a friendly crowd of PAN supporters, Felipe Calderón celebrated 10 years of PAN rule in Mexico, dropping a few controversial lines: "...Mexico does not deserve to be stranded in the middle of the road to democratic change that we have undertaken, much less the tragedy of going back to the old, to the authoritarian, to the irresponsible."

It is an inherent problem of presidentialism that no separation between head of government and head of state exists - the president, despite being an obviously highly partisan choice, also is supposed to represent the country as a whole. Statements like that, though said in the context of a PAN celebration, which were clearly signaled at the PRI, is about as far away from such a mandate as possible. It sadly reminds one of the clumsy and idiotic intervention by Vicente Fox in 2005 and 2006 on behalf of PAN. Moreover, despite all the criticism - and lawdy lawd there is much to chose from - of PRI's authoritarian streaks, should Mexico's president be in the business of deeming a possible PRI return to Los Pinos as a "tragedy" in advance, whomever the candidate may be? While I, too, would personally would consider in particular a Peña Nieto win to be, to be sure, tragic for Mexico, I am not the president of Mexico, and as such have a bit more leeway to say so than Calderón.

Moreover, and more concretely, it may make the passing of any significant legislation the coming two years even more difficult: Chamber of Deputies President Jorge Carlos Ramírez Marín, for one, issues such a warning. One should not forget that like it or not, for the next two  years, PRI will still have a majority in Congress.

Encinas reiterates: He will not be candidate, but backs Polevnsky

PRD's own santaclós lookalike, Alejandro Encinas, again made it clear he will not be a candidate for the left in Mexico State: For the umpteenth time, he has not been living there for quite some time, and as such does not fulfill the residency requirements. He does, however, use the occasion to note he has "40 percent support," though I doubt he'll try to push this one.

Sadly for the left, he does endorse the doomed, hapless candidacy of Yeidckol Polevnsky, though he clearly must know she doesn't stand a snowball's chance in hell of being elected in the state. Doubly sad, as he so obviously puts his loyalty a ultranza to AMLO ahead of a political project of the Left.

At last: Governor Gabino Cué of Oaxaca - how sweet it sounds

A big, big day for Oaxaca, and Mexico: The end of the despotic caciquismo of Ulises Ruiz came to an end with the assumption of Gabino Cué as governor of Oaxaca, 2010-2016.

Before the event, Ulises Ruiz had already informed that he would not attend the swearing-in of his successor, conveniently if pathetically using the excuse that he had to addend rather the ceremony of
Carlos Lozano de la Torre, new governor of Aguascalientes also sworn in today.

He might as well: In his speech, in the company of Interior Minister José Francisco Blake Mora, Cué declared,

"I will not allow impunity and there is no protection for those who by their actions betrayed the trust and the will of the people, and who tore apart the social fabric of the people of Oaxaca. But it will be only the law who can identify and punish the guilty, not personal or partisan political interests."

The all-but-direct reference to Ruiz ups the ante; the now former governor has more than enough reason to fear that he might be thrown in jail for his 6-year misrule of Oaxaca. Taking Cué at his words hardly leaves other alternatives than prison for Ulises Ruiz.

Así de fácil: Manuel Espino officially kicked out of the PAN

While it appeared long a foregone conclusion, the Sonora branch of Partido Acción Nacional (PAN) informed that the expulsion of Manuel Espino is a done deal.

Expect him to make a lot of noise the coming months, possibly even as head of an alternative party based in his newly created movement, Volver a Empezar.

The former national PAN president may still appeal the ruling.

Love and arrogance: Salvador García Soto's take on Amalia García and her daugher:

A withering critique of Amalia García and her senator daughter Claudia Corichi in Salvador García Soto's column today: They were felled by "love and arrogance":

"But what was the sin of a politician known for her career as a fighter on the left? There were two: Love and arrogance. Overprotection of her daughter, who was made senator with little political experience, and acquiescing to her many excesses, impudences, and interferences in her administration led to many of the problems it faces.

And arrogant pride, because even in defeat, after a mistake of choosing a bad candidate for the PRD that was disregarded by the likes of Marcelo Ebrard and Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who advised her to reconsider and to support an alliance PRD-PT-Convergencia  when faces with the risk of losing, Amalia never had the humility to accept that she lost and that behind her defeat was not only a young politician and current governor Miguel Alonso Reyes, but her nemesis, whom she confronted but whose upper strength knocked her down, former Governor Ricardo Monreal Avila."

Ouch.

Greatest joke of the day: Noroña, "dickheads," and Belaunzarán

It's hard to think of more polar opposites of people still nominally coinciding on the political left: Fernando Belaunzarán, one of PRD's most important intellectuals, and Gerardo Fernández Noroña, the rabble-rousing former PRD spokesperson-cum-national deputy for the PT. Here's a little incident that recently happened, according to Belaunzarán's blog:

"As we were both to attend the Political Science Congress at the Autonomous University of Aguascalientes, I invited the deputy Gerardo Fernandez Norona to, instead of having two separate presentations, for the benefits of the student we would have a debate to contrast our positions. He could have refused and nothing more, but chose to insult: "I don't debate with pendejos," to which I replied, "but I do, and invite you to the debate."

Noroña's response?  Hurling a glass of red wine at Belaunzarán (he missed).

IFE under fire: TEPJF orders IFE to reopen investigation of church

Last week, TEPJF, Mexico's highest electoral court, ordered the Fedral Electoral Institute (IFE), which arranges federal elections in Mexcio, to reopen the complaint that the PRD had launched against the church, which in the past months have drastically stepped up its political proselytizing, such as calling on voters not to vote for the PRD, a party it shamefully refer to as "fascist." To anyone with a casual knowledge of the Mexican Constitution, these were obvious and blatant breaches of constitutional as well as electoral law - and not to mention, which is a separate issue, the open hate speech from the church against gays and accusing the Supreme Court of being corrupt.

Yet IFE, to recall, timidly refused to take any stand on the issue or reprimand the church in any way. It washed its hands off the case by passing on the complaint to the Interior Ministry, which IFE knows fully well would mean that the case would be permanently shelved. Now, however, the electoral tribunal, the TEPJF, ruled that IFE engaged in an "insufficient investigation" of the matter, and ordered it to reopen the process.

This is excellent news. As Rafael Hernández, PRD's party representative notes, hopefully this will lead to the spelling out of clearer rules regarding what the church is allowed and not allowed to do: It is well overdue.

Amalia's story

A straightalker she is not: Far from it. Amalia Garcìa sat down in a full-lenght interview with El Universal to give her side of the story, yet it is pretty disappointing given how circumspect she is on many topics.

 Her main line: What Governor Miguel Alonso is doing is regressing to the "dark eras" of the PRI, persecuting her politically. Among the specific points:
- The millions of pesos spent on popular artists was an investment, to drive tourism to the state and generate employment.
- The current governor, in any regard,  was her secretary of tourism, and approved of it
- The comptroller and the government is using the media to judge her, without summoning anyone for questioning
- Debt contracted and left was only 600 million pesos, not 2 billion pesos
- The current governor is a monrealista, and as such it is also an attack by Ricardo Monreal.

Then, and rather astoundingly, Amalia García hints that she is being targeted in order to prevent her from running for mayor of Mexico City - as it were, also a goal expressed by her arch-enemy Monreal. That Amalia, given the recent battering, but also from the fact that she can´t even legally run - she is not a resident of the Federal District, having left Zacatecas merely weeks ago - already talks of a Mexico City run in the midst of what may or may not be a major corruption scandal, to me appears more than a bit presumptuous.

She does, in any event, certainly have a point when it comes to Ricardo Monreal, whose ghost hovers over the new Zacatecas government. As Bajo Reserva notes:
- The new comptroller, Guillermo Huizar, was head of the state branch of the Partido del Trabajo, which Monreal and his brothers joined after ditching the PRD
- The new attorney general Arturo Nahle was Monreal's Government Secretary
- His chief administrative officer Le Roy Barraga is Monreal's suplente in the Senate

Even Arturo Ramírez  Bucio a federal deputy for PAN from Zacatecas, told the new PRI governor to "cut the umbilical cord," which may be taken almost literally: Governor Alonso was at one point even Monreal's personal secretary.