Thursday, August 4, 2011

Michoacán politics: There is no such thing as a coincidence

A few days ago, his sister won the internal party primary to be PAN´s gubernatorial candidate in Michoacán.
Today, President Felipe Calderón just happened to start a two-day tour of the state, visiting five major municipalities, including the capital of Morelia. All a coincidence, to be sure.

Michoacán: PAN at its worst

There is something truly repugnant about virtually every step the PAN has taken in Michoacàn ahead of the November gubernatorial election.

As is known by know, the president's sister,  Luisa María Calderón Hinojosa, became the PAN's candidate for governor. Nothing illegal, though it bears notice that the pact she made with her brother and other member of the Calderón family in 2006 to NOT seek any elected office while Felipe was president, was just a lie. Shocker.

Yet now, Marko Cortés Mendoza, the losing candidate in PAN´s primary, has just been given the consolation price of becoming PAN´s mayoral candidate in Morelia. First, I think it tells you a bit of his character that he even threatened to leave the PAN and run for another party should he not get some kind of reward. A pure opportunist - I think the morelianos deserve someone with a bit more principles. But it gets worse: Marko - he goes by his first name in the state - was directly appointed candidate centrally by the PAN, reminiscent of the worst dedazos of the PRI regime. This does not please local deputy Alfonso Martínez, who has been campaigning long and hard for the nomination, yet simply received news that any primary is cancelled.

And worse it gets: Despite all the dirty laundry aired in public, and quite a bit of mudslinging, regarding the PANAL party of  Elba Esther Gordillo, based on her iron grip of the SNTE teachers union, and despite declarations from PAN it would not stoop again to the low of allying with Gordillo, the PAN in Michoacàn did just that.

I hope Michoacán makes a wise electoral choice on the coming Nov. 13.

Monday, August 1, 2011

AMLO's Santa Ana reference

Among the various themes that AMLO constantly repeats in his campaign appearances is that a return of the PRI to the Mexican presidency will be equivalent to the return of 19th-century dictator Santa Ana.

Beyond my basic concurrence that the return of the PRI will likely be a very negative development for Mexico's democracy, a question: 

If PRI's return is like Santa Ana's - then how can at the same time PRI and PAN be "all the same," as he constantly repeats? And why, then, his ardent opposition to PRD-PAN state-level electoral alliances that sought to prevent PRI's return? 

AMLO's media coordinator César Yáñez, who still owes the AMLO interview he promised me, may send a reply to aguachileblogger@gmail.com

Partido Convergencia, 1999-2011

The Partido Convergencia ceased to exist yesterday, at least by that designation:

It changed its name to Movimiento Ciudadano, took AMLO's eagle for its party logo, dissolved its national executive committee, and converted its party president into a "national coordinator." It also opened up 50 percent of its candidacies to non-party members, or "citizens."

It has essentially remained the personal outfit of former PRI governor Dante Delgado Rannauro, who created the party as a means to return be governor of Veracruz, but after 2006, when its registry was in clear danger, threw his lot with AMLO and the party drastically "radicalized," despite being very non-programmatic and even center-right in most of its previous pronouncements, when it also often allied with PRI and PAN on the state level. It has a handful of senators yet saw its number of deputies reduced in half in 2009, when it competed on its own list rather than on a common one with the PRD, and is close to electoral extinction .

Hence,  Movimiento Ciudadano.

Display of strength for Ebrard, as the "movement" mobilizes for AMLO

The unofficial launch of Marcelo Ebrard's campaign took place yesterday, as the Demócratas de Izquierda, or the Democrats of the Left, arranged an event attended by more than 2,500 people that included the governors of Sinaloa and Guerrero, as well as as a range of backers and politicians, many from outside the PRD.

Ebrard proclaimed in very general terms the contours of his national plan, but was at pains to explain it was not a campaign launch- which of course it was.  Notably, he also appeared to call for some variant of parliamentarism - or "to separate the chief of state from chief of government" - which to me is an absolutely marvelous idea, as long as it does not end in a semi-presidential regime.

What a perfect illustration of the two paths for the left to follow: On the one hand, Ebrard and the coalition of social-democratic party factions in the Demócratas - and on the other, the highly discredited René Bejarano and his clientelistic "movement," who after holding meetings all over Mexico went to Tabasco the same day to back AMLO's electoral project.

Bejarano claims to have more than two million people in his National Movement of Hope, which he offers in order to back AMLO's candidacy (though at the same time confirming that many of them are also members of AMLO's own movement MORENA).

His wife, Dolores Padierna, is head of the IDN party faction of the PRD - involved in virtually every one of PRD's scandals the past decade - which backs AMLO. She is, to add, the secretary general of the PRD, while party president Jesús Zambrano is the president of the party - and attended Ebrard's event.

The two paths for the Mexican left have never appeared more clear.

Cocoa's the one: President Calderón's sister wins party primary in Michoacán

Luisa María Calderón Hinojosa, "Cocoa," won PAN's primary election in Michoacán to be the party's gubernatorial candidate, with 58 percent of the 25,757 votes cast. Her opponent, Senator Marko Cortés Mendoza, has accepted the defeat - despite some alarmist suggestions that he would cause quite a bit of mayhem and claim a fraud.

Quite the contrary - Cortés said he would fully back Cocoa. His loss is also a defeat for Santiago Creel, who openly backed his aspirations against those of the president's sister.

With her candidacy, the November Michoacán election looks even more set to be a completely open three-way race. Quite likely, PRI and PRD will denounce "nepotism," and accuse Calderón, fairly or not, of intervening in the local election.

Clearly she has every right to participate. But voters should also bear in mind that she is also a woman who does not stick to her word:  She is openly breaking an earlier agreement from 2006 that no family member would be in the public as long as Felipe was president. That was then; this is now - but it was clearly a lie.

PRI has said that a victory Michoacán is essential for the party on its path to 2012: Its leader said he will literally not leave the state until the election.  So it is, of course, for the PRD, as the state might be considered the party's cradle. But finally, also to the PAN, and not only for the above: It won its first municipal president (Quiroga), first local deputy, and first national deputy there, eons ago.

This will be a very dramatic - and competitive - affair.

Sunday, July 31, 2011

AMLO: No beef with the church

So that it remains clear: AMLO, in a political rally for his presidency in Tala, Jalisco, said he had "no dispute" (or perhaps, "quarrel," "issue" - the word is pleito) with religious groups:

"I have no dispute at all with the hierarchies of the catholic church, or of any other."

He is, of course, again hoping for the goodwill of the Catholic Church, just like in 2006, when he notoriously refused to commit to any "hot" topics such as abortion rights, the morning after pill, or euthanasia, telling the church he would put this up for vote for his vaunted "people" - as if were something that should simply be decided by majority vote. As mayor of Mexico City, he actively fought against his party's push for abortion and gay rights. While much can be ascribed to the all-encompassing goal of "saving" Mexico through him becoming president, and not put off voters not thrilled with social liberalism, he is in many ways as well a social conservative.