Much speculation regarding whether AMLO will finally announce his departure from the PRD on Sunday, when he will hold a rally in the Zócalo in Mexico City. He has recently sent signals that this is imminent. Given the fact that he also practically refused to campaign for the PRD in 2009 and as well in the recent elections of July 4, it should hardly be a surprise.
Sadly, it also speaks volumes of AMLO. After his favored candidate Alejandro Encinas lost the election to become party president, rather than to accept the insitutionalized leadership of the PRD, led by Jesús Ortega, AMLO chose to dismiss the party, which appeared bent on keeping its word regarding who will be its presidential candidate in 2012 - AMLO earlier agreed that it would be whoever was ahead in the polls. As the PRD leadership recently reiterated this, rather than falling in line behind AMLO, he may finally leave it all together.
(PT and Convergencia, two utterly opportunistic parties devoid of any ideology or programmatic consistency, also reiterated this promise, but I am hardly holding my breath here).
I will certainly head to the Zócalo Sunday in any case to "gauge the mood..."
Wednesday, July 21, 2010
Who will lead the PRD after Ortega?
It seems like only months ago that Jesús Ortega was finally granted the party presidency of the PRD, after a ruling by TEPJF, the electoral tribunal. The party election was amazingly held by mass vote by the party base, even though every single election through this mechanism has led to a disaster, and particularly since the party by 2008 was more bitterly divided than at any point in history. My heart sinks just thinking the thought that the next election might in the end be held by this manner again.
It is my opinion that the PRD´s disastrous electoral result in 2009 was hardly the fault of Ortega, but rather of the refusal of his internal party opponents to accept his leadership and instead continue their "friendly" fire, and of AMLO´s decision to turn his back on his old party and campaign for the PT and Convergencia in that year's federal mid-term election.
This article in El Universal gives a decent run-down of some of the frontrunners, yet I digress strongly with its warning against trying out the proposed new method of electing party president, namely by a 60% supermajority in the PRD's national council. First, given the many cochineros of internal elections in the past, isn't it worth trying? How many times shall one keep doing the same thing and expect a different result? As for the internal division in the PRD I believe it remains as strong as ever, and now a new fault line as well is adding to the others, namely whether to push for AMLO in 2012 or not. And so what if this means the corrientes will need to pact a majority agreement? Isn´t that exactly the point? The andresmanuelistas has again and again showed they are terribly poor losers that generally tend to refuse to accept losses, particularly within PRD's own institution. This might serve to keep them on, rather than a zero-sum pro-AMLO or a pro-Nueva Izquierda president. Moreover, a supermajority requirement would be (somewhat) akin to a version of parliamentarism, which many in the PRD has long advocated.
The post also mentions Dolores Padierna as a possible candidate. It is my opionion that if Padierna, wife of the infamous René Bejarano, gets control of the PRD, the party is truly doomed. No one has done more to sow internal party division and create bad blood than the people of the corriente IDN, which, to recycle an overused saying,is hardly of the left but socially conservative and stalinist (I for izquierda), certainly not internally democratic but lead with an iron hand by Bejarano/Padierna (D for democrática), and hardly national (N for nacional), as its main strength lies with the clientelistic networks maintained by Bejarano in Mexico City. Only Nueva Izquierda, of Ortega et al, has proven capable, or rather, bothered to build a national organization. Padierna yet again recently called for Ortega to step down, demonstrating yet again IDN's failure to accept its loss.
One candidate that is not mentioned is Michoacán Governor Leonel Godoy. Every single perredista in the upper echelons of the PRD that I´ve talked to have been full of praise for Godoy´s 2003-2005 interim presidency of the PRD following the utter disastrous presidency of Rosario Robles. The contrast to his successor Leonel Cota, who was regarded as completely subservient to AMLO, was also remarkable.
He could again be somewhat of a, for lack of better word, "unity" candidate.
Yo voy con Godoy.
It is my opinion that the PRD´s disastrous electoral result in 2009 was hardly the fault of Ortega, but rather of the refusal of his internal party opponents to accept his leadership and instead continue their "friendly" fire, and of AMLO´s decision to turn his back on his old party and campaign for the PT and Convergencia in that year's federal mid-term election.
This article in El Universal gives a decent run-down of some of the frontrunners, yet I digress strongly with its warning against trying out the proposed new method of electing party president, namely by a 60% supermajority in the PRD's national council. First, given the many cochineros of internal elections in the past, isn't it worth trying? How many times shall one keep doing the same thing and expect a different result? As for the internal division in the PRD I believe it remains as strong as ever, and now a new fault line as well is adding to the others, namely whether to push for AMLO in 2012 or not. And so what if this means the corrientes will need to pact a majority agreement? Isn´t that exactly the point? The andresmanuelistas has again and again showed they are terribly poor losers that generally tend to refuse to accept losses, particularly within PRD's own institution. This might serve to keep them on, rather than a zero-sum pro-AMLO or a pro-Nueva Izquierda president. Moreover, a supermajority requirement would be (somewhat) akin to a version of parliamentarism, which many in the PRD has long advocated.
The post also mentions Dolores Padierna as a possible candidate. It is my opionion that if Padierna, wife of the infamous René Bejarano, gets control of the PRD, the party is truly doomed. No one has done more to sow internal party division and create bad blood than the people of the corriente IDN, which, to recycle an overused saying,is hardly of the left but socially conservative and stalinist (I for izquierda), certainly not internally democratic but lead with an iron hand by Bejarano/Padierna (D for democrática), and hardly national (N for nacional), as its main strength lies with the clientelistic networks maintained by Bejarano in Mexico City. Only Nueva Izquierda, of Ortega et al, has proven capable, or rather, bothered to build a national organization. Padierna yet again recently called for Ortega to step down, demonstrating yet again IDN's failure to accept its loss.
One candidate that is not mentioned is Michoacán Governor Leonel Godoy. Every single perredista in the upper echelons of the PRD that I´ve talked to have been full of praise for Godoy´s 2003-2005 interim presidency of the PRD following the utter disastrous presidency of Rosario Robles. The contrast to his successor Leonel Cota, who was regarded as completely subservient to AMLO, was also remarkable.
He could again be somewhat of a, for lack of better word, "unity" candidate.
Yo voy con Godoy.
The gruesome face of rightwing catholicism: Guanajuato
Even after a rash of initiatives to criminalize abortion in a range of states the past couple of years, the case of Guanajuato, which is led by a far right wing of PAN where many belong to the extremist secret organization known as El Yunque, stands out in its infamany: Milenio reports that at least 160 women are currently being prosecuted for having suffered spontaneous abortions. Abortions in Guanajuato are punished by at least three years in prison and women "suspected" of having had an abortion are regularly harassed, physically and sexually, by the police, having been "turned in" in many cases by their former boyfriends, doctors, or others.
Meanwhile, Luz María Ramírez, head of the Guanajuato section of the ineffectual and politicized National Institute for Women, is more concerned with castigating women who show a lack of "moral values" by wearing tattoos.
Some great news: Alma Yareli Salazar Saldaña, who had been sentenced to 27.5 years in prison for spontaneous abortion - yes, 25 years - was just released in San Miguel de Allende.
Hopefully, this case -' notorious for its fabrication of evidence - may lead to the release of many other women who are suffering the same fate.
Some great news: Alma Yareli Salazar Saldaña, who had been sentenced to 27.5 years in prison for spontaneous abortion - yes, 25 years - was just released in San Miguel de Allende.
Hopefully, this case -' notorious for its fabrication of evidence - may lead to the release of many other women who are suffering the same fate.
Tuesday, July 20, 2010
Leftist sectarianism a la mexicana
Gerardo Fernández Noroña is at it again. The rambunctious former spokesman for the PRD, who bailed his old party when his favored candidate Alejandro Encinas failed to win the party presidency in 2008, is a living manifestation of the sectarianism of the Mexican left. Now a diputado for PT, Noroña appearently threatened to "expose" what he claims to be shady property deals by PRD Vice Coordinator Guadalupe Acosta Naranjo, if the PRD supports a proposal for a general value-added tax.
(Acosta Naranjo, to recall, is a noted member of Nueva Izquierda, the faction that currently controls the PRD's national secretariat).
Beyond the accusations itself, which I find highly dubious given Noroña's credetials, what happened to the calls for unity on the Mexican left?
La Jornada puts its usual pro-AMLO, pro-Encinas, anti-Nueva Izquierda spin on the issue.
Yes, value-added tax on its own is regressive taxation that hurts the poor more than the rich, but the point is exactly what the added revenue generated by the IVA is used for. If it is used for extensive social programs, the whole picture changes regarding whether IVA is truly a "tax on the poor." Don't expect Noroña to capture this anytime soon.
(Acosta Naranjo, to recall, is a noted member of Nueva Izquierda, the faction that currently controls the PRD's national secretariat).
Beyond the accusations itself, which I find highly dubious given Noroña's credetials, what happened to the calls for unity on the Mexican left?
La Jornada puts its usual pro-AMLO, pro-Encinas, anti-Nueva Izquierda spin on the issue.
Yes, value-added tax on its own is regressive taxation that hurts the poor more than the rich, but the point is exactly what the added revenue generated by the IVA is used for. If it is used for extensive social programs, the whole picture changes regarding whether IVA is truly a "tax on the poor." Don't expect Noroña to capture this anytime soon.
AMLO: “La mafia que se adueñó de México… y el 2012"
I finally got to read through AMLO's new book, La mafia que se adueñó de México… y el 2012.
It is neither excessively long nor a tough read - as all of AMLO's books it's highly accessible.
I also would recommend it for several reasons. The writing is passionate, with wonderful descriptions of his travels through Mexico - AMLO has visited every single one of Mexico's municipalities - every 2456 of them, - probably a first in Mexican history. His passion for Mexico is heartfelt. AMLO also visited every one of Oaxaxa's districts of uso y costumbre, and his stories from Oaxaca are particularly stirring in their compassion for Mexico's poor.
Yet in my opinion one may also see glimpses of a darker side of López Obrador. He resolutely defends his rather extreme behavior during the 2008 petroleum reform, where he called upon thousands of his followers to literally seek to block the petroleum form, through keeping legislators out of congress, because the reform did not include 12 (or 17) words that he demanded to be inserted. In the book, he rather amazingly claims that had it not been for this mobilization, the entire petroleum industry would have been privatized, which defies belief. There is more than an element of delusions of grandeur here.
Other observations:
- He goes remarkably soft on Carlos Slim, despite being the richest man in Mexico.
(see Denise Dresser's excellent "Open Letter to Carlos Slim" in Proceso.)
- He says nothing of the highly reactionary Mexican Catholic Church, this caste of elites that for centuries has done so much to block social progress in Mexico
And the clincher: One chapter section is entitled, "Who will be the candidate?" where he repeats the deal made with Marcelo Ebrard that the PRD (and presumably PT and Convergencia) will rally behind whoever is ahead in voting intentions, be it AMLO or Ebrard.
Yet mere weeks after book's publication, in what appears a panicked response to his failed predictions of carro completo for the PRI on July 4, he completely contradicted himself by stating that, no matter what, he's "going for 2012."
While he appeared to backtrack days later, I remain personally convinced that there is a higher likelyhood that hell will freeze over rather than AMLO declining in favor of Ebrard - or any other candidate of the left.
It is neither excessively long nor a tough read - as all of AMLO's books it's highly accessible.
I also would recommend it for several reasons. The writing is passionate, with wonderful descriptions of his travels through Mexico - AMLO has visited every single one of Mexico's municipalities - every 2456 of them, - probably a first in Mexican history. His passion for Mexico is heartfelt. AMLO also visited every one of Oaxaxa's districts of uso y costumbre, and his stories from Oaxaca are particularly stirring in their compassion for Mexico's poor.
Yet in my opinion one may also see glimpses of a darker side of López Obrador. He resolutely defends his rather extreme behavior during the 2008 petroleum reform, where he called upon thousands of his followers to literally seek to block the petroleum form, through keeping legislators out of congress, because the reform did not include 12 (or 17) words that he demanded to be inserted. In the book, he rather amazingly claims that had it not been for this mobilization, the entire petroleum industry would have been privatized, which defies belief. There is more than an element of delusions of grandeur here.
Other observations:
- He goes remarkably soft on Carlos Slim, despite being the richest man in Mexico.
(see Denise Dresser's excellent "Open Letter to Carlos Slim" in Proceso.)
- He says nothing of the highly reactionary Mexican Catholic Church, this caste of elites that for centuries has done so much to block social progress in Mexico
And the clincher: One chapter section is entitled, "Who will be the candidate?" where he repeats the deal made with Marcelo Ebrard that the PRD (and presumably PT and Convergencia) will rally behind whoever is ahead in voting intentions, be it AMLO or Ebrard.
Yet mere weeks after book's publication, in what appears a panicked response to his failed predictions of carro completo for the PRI on July 4, he completely contradicted himself by stating that, no matter what, he's "going for 2012."
While he appeared to backtrack days later, I remain personally convinced that there is a higher likelyhood that hell will freeze over rather than AMLO declining in favor of Ebrard - or any other candidate of the left.
PRD history lesson from Senator Graco Ramírez
Given the heavy criticism from both AMLO and CC of the PRD-PAN alliances, it is worth recalling, as does PRD Senator Graco Ramírez, that both PRD ex-presidents also advocated them in the past.
While the alliances were certainly controversial within both parties, members of the PRD corriente or party faction Nueva Izquierda rightly criticized the two caudillos for opposing the alliances while doing nothing to help the PRD in the states where the party ran alone. AMLO, for his part, only campaigned for Senator Dante Delgado in Veracruz, where the founder and former president of Convergencia - and, to be sure, former priísta governor of Veracruz - only finished third.
Both AMLO and CC appeared convinced the aliances would fail spectacularly. In the end, only their predictions did.
While the alliances were certainly controversial within both parties, members of the PRD corriente or party faction Nueva Izquierda rightly criticized the two caudillos for opposing the alliances while doing nothing to help the PRD in the states where the party ran alone. AMLO, for his part, only campaigned for Senator Dante Delgado in Veracruz, where the founder and former president of Convergencia - and, to be sure, former priísta governor of Veracruz - only finished third.
Both AMLO and CC appeared convinced the aliances would fail spectacularly. In the end, only their predictions did.
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