Left may sweep entire Mexico City

In a remarkable turnaround, given its significant losses in 2009 and talks just months ago of losing it to the PRI, PRD looks set to absolutely sweep Mexico City. We're not only talking of the hyper-popular Miguel Mancera, who will be the city's next mayor and is simply destroying PRI's Beatriz Paredes and PAN's Isabel Miranda de Wallace in the polls.

No, PRD is also set to wrest from PAN two of its bastions, due chiefly to the absolute misrule of PAN's delegation chiefs there:

* In Cuajimalpa, PRD's Rosendo Rodríguez looks set to win, with double-digit leads

* In Miguel Hidalgo, PRD's Víctor Hugo Romo is far ahead of his rivals, given the disastrous administration of PAN's Demetrio Sodi

* While PAN is still ahead, even Benito Juárez is in play, truly a shocker in local politics.

The left has clearly shown it can govern.

While Enrique Peña Nieto will likely be Mexico's next president, he certainly will get no pull from PRI in Mexico City; indeed, Paredes' candidacy was meant to do so, yet her campaign posters are now being quietly removed in favor of those of Peña, as she is ironically pulling down his Mexico City vote instead.

And with a Peña Nieto presidency, it will be ever more important to maintain Mexico City as a strong counterweight.

Sources:

PAN toma ventaja en la Benito Juárez. El Universal, June 7, 2012.

PRD toma delantera en Cuajimalpa. El Universal, June 9, 2012. 

Urge a Cuajimalpa movilidad: Mancera. El Universal, June 11, 2012.

Ventaja de PRD en M. Hidalgo. El Universal, June 21, 2012.

PRI ex-governor Eugenio Hernández Flores next?

Look's like we might be in for another "October Surprise": Following the criminal money-laundering cases against former governor Tomás Yarrington of Tamaulipas in the United States and parallel investigations in Mexico - has anyone seen Yarrington, by the way? - there has been much speculation that his successor, Eugenio Hernández Flores, might be next.

Now, El Universal reports that Hernández has filed an injunction against having his property seized. 
Will Calderón launch a high-profile raid against the former PRI governor? Hernández clearly thinks he has reasons for filing his amparo. 


Stay tuned for a late-June "surprise" ahead of Mexico's July 1 election.

Source:

Ex gobernador de Tamaulipas busca amparo. El Universal, June 21, 2012.

PRI candidate murders PAN opponent

Given a vast array of shenanigans when they were "elected" in dirty primaries, the federal electoral tribunal has recently ordered PRI to redo much of their candidate selection process in especially southern Mexico.

But nothing comes close to this: In Chiapas, the local electoral board approved the substitution of Ulises Alberto Grajales Niño by Bulmaro Castillejos Calvo as a candidate to be mayor of Villaflores.

What's the reason this time? Ulises Alberto Grajales is accused of having murdered an activist from the PAN party who was apparently tearing down some electoral material on June 11. Gunned down, in cold blood. Grajales has at least been arrested.

Chiapas will elect, on July 1, a new governor, 118 municipal preisdents, and 40 local deputies for the state congress, as well as, of course, votes for national president, senators, and deputies.

May there be no more political murders until then.

Source:

Acusan a aspirante de PRI de matar a panista. El Universal, June 12, 2012.

Designan nuevo candidato en Chiapas. El Universal, June 16, 2012.

7 states matter most for Mexico 2012 election

Sure, every state "matters," but in terms of population, as an excellent overview article from El Universal reminds us, the 7 states Mexico's parties really will be fighting over this July 1 are: Mexico City, Mexico State, Jalisco, Veracruz, Oaxaca, Guerrero and Puebla.  This does not mean that all of these are "in play" for all three parties, or even two, but are nonetheless really key battlegrounds regarding electoral demography.

What I find interesting is the following:
- Mexico City is not even remotely competitive, despite earlier (6-12 months ago) claims of a credible PRI challenge. Check out the huge advantage of the left's candidate in the polls here. The latest: 60.39 percent, to PRI's 15.4! I readily recall earlier conversations I had with priístas who claimed that Beatriz Paredes would manage to win the city from the left; now, rather, she may actually depress the vote of PRI's 2012 reality-show presidential candidate.
- Mexico State, forget about it - AMLO will likely pull a strong 2, but his destructive interference in the 2011 local election against an alliance did serious damage to the left's credibility
- Jalisco: This one could get interesting. AMLO's gubernatorial candidate Enrique Alfaro Ramírez may actually stand a chance of winning. It's a long shot, but increasingly less so.
-Veracruz: A PRI bastion , but there are massive tensions in the local PRI, not least due to a collapsing state government, internal party division, and long misrule by the PRI - 83 years, to be exact.
- Oaxaca: Thanks to a broad 2010 alliance, which ended 81 years of PRI rule, left very likely to win here
- Guerrero: Unless PRD governor and former PRI politician Aguirre betrays the left to back Peña Nieto - he as promised to back AMLO, which he seems to be doing - this state will likely go with the PRD
- Puebla: Controlled by ultra-conservative forces (the PAN governor is former PRI), the state is nonetheless more competitive than ever, thanks to a 2010 alliances that ended the PRI's disastrous reign of the state, last under the pedophile-protecting governor Mario Marín. AMLO has done much footwork here, and will likely  have a strong showing.

In sum: 2012 is far more competitive than most any mainstream analyst suggested only half a year ago.

 Source:

Partidos enfocan estrategia en ganar 7 entidades clave. El Universal, June 15, 2012.

Mexico cools to Obama and US

The 2012 Pew survey of global of opinion of the United States is out, and there is a marked decline in Mexicans' opinion of both Obama and the United States, since the last 2009 survey:

Confidence in Obama drops from 55 to 42, and favorability toward United States from 69 to 56. The most drastic drop, of 17 percent, is Mexico's approval of U.S foreign policy: From 56 to 39.

 Pew

Source: Global Opinion of Obama Slips, International Policies Faulted. Pew Research Center, June 13, 2012.

Stunning The Guardian exposée confirms left suspicions

This is quite explosive news, given in particular its timing: An investigation by Jo Tuckman of the British newspaper The Guardian appears to confirm exactly what the Mexican left and its 2012 presidential candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) - as well as many journalists and analysts - have claimed for many years:

• An outline of fees apparently charged for raising Peña Nieto's national profile when he was governor of the state of Mexico.

• A detailed media strategy explicitly designed to torpedo a previous presidential bid by leftwing candidate Andres Manuel López Obrador, who is currently Peña Nieto's closest rival.

• Payment arrangements suggesting that the office of former president Vicente Fox concealed exorbitant public spending on media promotion.

Read all about it!

Update: See the documents at the Guardian's Web page here.

Sources: 

Computer files link TV dirty tricks to favourite for Mexico presidency. The Guardian, June 8, 2012
Documenta The Guardian la colusión Televisa-Peña. La Jornada, June 8, 2012
Respuesta de la televisora. La Jornada, June 8, 2012
Reacción a nota de The Guardian. La Jornada, June 8, 2012

The amazingly incompetent Vázquez Mota campaign

The incompetence of PAN candidate Josefina Vázquez Mota does not cease to amaze me.
Case in point:  A few weeks ago, she appointed the respected political scientist but highly discredited public servant Juan Molinar Horcasitas to her presidential campaign.

Now, she openly disavows him, and pathetically demands that he remain ajeno or roughly "outside" of her campaign, in order to clarify his role in the infamous Hermosillo, Sonora  fire that killed 49 infants, and so as not to prevent her from from "getting closer" to the parents of the dead children. She also has the guts to demand that he face justice.

Did she simply forget about this when she appointed him?

No wonder she is plummeting in the polls: This is simply the worst PAN candidate for the presidency in more than a generation.

Source:

Pide JVM a Molinar enfrentar a la justicia. El Universal, June 5, 2012.