Saturday, June 16, 2012

7 states matter most for Mexico 2012 election

Sure, every state "matters," but in terms of population, as an excellent overview article from El Universal reminds us, the 7 states Mexico's parties really will be fighting over this July 1 are: Mexico City, Mexico State, Jalisco, Veracruz, Oaxaca, Guerrero and Puebla.  This does not mean that all of these are "in play" for all three parties, or even two, but are nonetheless really key battlegrounds regarding electoral demography.

What I find interesting is the following:
- Mexico City is not even remotely competitive, despite earlier (6-12 months ago) claims of a credible PRI challenge. Check out the huge advantage of the left's candidate in the polls here. The latest: 60.39 percent, to PRI's 15.4! I readily recall earlier conversations I had with priístas who claimed that Beatriz Paredes would manage to win the city from the left; now, rather, she may actually depress the vote of PRI's 2012 reality-show presidential candidate.
- Mexico State, forget about it - AMLO will likely pull a strong 2, but his destructive interference in the 2011 local election against an alliance did serious damage to the left's credibility
- Jalisco: This one could get interesting. AMLO's gubernatorial candidate Enrique Alfaro Ramírez may actually stand a chance of winning. It's a long shot, but increasingly less so.
-Veracruz: A PRI bastion , but there are massive tensions in the local PRI, not least due to a collapsing state government, internal party division, and long misrule by the PRI - 83 years, to be exact.
- Oaxaca: Thanks to a broad 2010 alliance, which ended 81 years of PRI rule, left very likely to win here
- Guerrero: Unless PRD governor and former PRI politician Aguirre betrays the left to back Peña Nieto - he as promised to back AMLO, which he seems to be doing - this state will likely go with the PRD
- Puebla: Controlled by ultra-conservative forces (the PAN governor is former PRI), the state is nonetheless more competitive than ever, thanks to a 2010 alliances that ended the PRI's disastrous reign of the state, last under the pedophile-protecting governor Mario Marín. AMLO has done much footwork here, and will likely  have a strong showing.

In sum: 2012 is far more competitive than most any mainstream analyst suggested only half a year ago.


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