The results of the poll were finally made public this morning: Andrés Manuel López Obrador will be the candidate of the PRD, PT and MC for the 2012 election.
The PRD will in 2012 be a party with a 23-year history, yet merely two presidential candidates.
I truly hope I am mistaken, but as far as I can see, this all but assures that the next president of Mexico will be Enrique Peña Nieto, and that the PRI will return to Los Pinos.
Tuesday, November 15, 2011
Andrés Manuel López Obrador will again be the left's candidate for 2012
Andrés Manuel López Obrador will be the left's candidate in 2012, according to the results of the two polls released today. That is, he is the "best positioned" in the two polls he and Marcelo Ebrard had commissioned. He will now run on a coalition likely consisting of the PRD, the PT, and Movimiento Ciudadano.
Watch the conference now, live from Milenio TV
Cynical quote of the day
Enrique Peña Nieto, ex governor of Mexico State and likely PRI presidential candidate, is again in Washington, DC, appearing at the Woodrow Wilson Center. There, speaking of the needed structural reforms in Mexico, he declared,
"Neither the left nor the right, have the optimum conditions, as shown, to undertake these reforms"How bold. This, after the federal legislators controlled by Peña Nieto in the Chamber of Deputies has sabotaged and blocked virtually every major legislative initiative the past couple of years. Cynical quote of the day.
Michoacán governor election, more results and data
* According to the PREP (preliminary results based on quick count), PRI won the governorship with 35.39 percent of the votes
* PRI won 11 local deputies for congress, PRD 8, and PAN 5
* PRI won 46 out of 113 municipalities (with PVEM alliance in several), PRD and allies 30 (down from 41), and PAN 27 (up from 20)
* 54.2 percent of voters participated.
* Silvano Aureoles Conejo, the left's candidate, says Sunday's election in Michoacán should be annulled, given what he says was massive federal intervention in the election, threats against PRD militants, and PRI collusion with organized crime.
* Do does Cocoa, president Calderón's sister and PAN's candidate. She also demands a vote-by-vote recount, and the count of 879 ballot boxes that were not counted by the PREP. I looked at the PREP and made references to these here. I think, too, these should be counted again.
* The winner according to the PREP, Fausto Vallejo Figueroa, denies any narco ties.
* Yet Manuel Camacho Solís, coordinator of the Diálogo para la Reconstrucción de México (DIA) left front of PRD, PT and MC, says the left should accept the results.
* The federal attorney general's office is investigating 42 concrete cases in relation to the election
* PRI won 11 local deputies for congress, PRD 8, and PAN 5
* PRI won 46 out of 113 municipalities (with PVEM alliance in several), PRD and allies 30 (down from 41), and PAN 27 (up from 20)
* 54.2 percent of voters participated.
* Silvano Aureoles Conejo, the left's candidate, says Sunday's election in Michoacán should be annulled, given what he says was massive federal intervention in the election, threats against PRD militants, and PRI collusion with organized crime.
* Do does Cocoa, president Calderón's sister and PAN's candidate. She also demands a vote-by-vote recount, and the count of 879 ballot boxes that were not counted by the PREP. I looked at the PREP and made references to these here. I think, too, these should be counted again.
* The winner according to the PREP, Fausto Vallejo Figueroa, denies any narco ties.
* Yet Manuel Camacho Solís, coordinator of the Diálogo para la Reconstrucción de México (DIA) left front of PRD, PT and MC, says the left should accept the results.
* The federal attorney general's office is investigating 42 concrete cases in relation to the election
Monday, November 14, 2011
Michoacán: PREP closed with PRI ahead, but funky numbers
All three parties claimed to have won the Michoacán election, with the surprise winner Fausto Vallejo Figueroa on top in the PREP, or Programa de Resultados Electorales Preliminares. As its name implies, these are not the official results and have no legal value - they are based on a quick count of the actas or tally sheets, which it appears were scanned electronically just as they came in.
For the official count, the complete electoral packets must be sent in to the electoral districts of the state, and the numbers of the tally sheets checked. They may also be opened and actually recounted, if the data on the tally sheet indicate, well, that something just ain't right - that the numbers don't add up with votes cast and reported remaining ballots, etc.
What is interesting is the ballot boxes reported in the PREP - access, in Excel form, to all the boxes is given here. Of the 6075 boxes reported for governor, the more one skims down the page (they are ordered according to when first reported in to the PREP), there are many hundreds of instances of 1) Tally sheet ineligible, 2) Sum of votes superior to the number of people voting, 3) Numbers do not match up, 4) Envelope empty, and 5) Envelope not handed over.
See for yourself here. Skimming the sheet, at least 500 boxes were not counted as part of the PREP. Though we don't know the absolute size of this vote, in terms of percentage of ballot boxes, that is quite a bit (8 percent based on purely eyeball measure) - and if we assume the number of votes in each box is roughly on average with the ones that were counted, (2-300 it seems, again just skimming), we are talking 100,000-150,000 votes not counted.
They could, of course, follow a complete normal distribution, in that they are spread out evenly among the candidates, but I will certainly withhold judgment on who won in Michoacán Sunday until both the state electoral institute and electoral tribunal have ratified the election.
For the official count, the complete electoral packets must be sent in to the electoral districts of the state, and the numbers of the tally sheets checked. They may also be opened and actually recounted, if the data on the tally sheet indicate, well, that something just ain't right - that the numbers don't add up with votes cast and reported remaining ballots, etc.
What is interesting is the ballot boxes reported in the PREP - access, in Excel form, to all the boxes is given here. Of the 6075 boxes reported for governor, the more one skims down the page (they are ordered according to when first reported in to the PREP), there are many hundreds of instances of 1) Tally sheet ineligible, 2) Sum of votes superior to the number of people voting, 3) Numbers do not match up, 4) Envelope empty, and 5) Envelope not handed over.
See for yourself here. Skimming the sheet, at least 500 boxes were not counted as part of the PREP. Though we don't know the absolute size of this vote, in terms of percentage of ballot boxes, that is quite a bit (8 percent based on purely eyeball measure) - and if we assume the number of votes in each box is roughly on average with the ones that were counted, (2-300 it seems, again just skimming), we are talking 100,000-150,000 votes not counted.
They could, of course, follow a complete normal distribution, in that they are spread out evenly among the candidates, but I will certainly withhold judgment on who won in Michoacán Sunday until both the state electoral institute and electoral tribunal have ratified the election.
Michoacán governor election: PRI ahead with 89% of voted counted
According to the PREP, or a program for preliminary election results contracted by Michoacán's electoral authority, Fausto Vallejo Figueroa is leading in the count to be Michoacán's next governor with 35.38 percent.
Luisa María Calderón Hinojosa is in second place with 32.67.
If confirmed, this is quite an upset: All major polls had Calderón's sister Cocoa as the favorite. It will be a huge triumph for the PRI ahead of 2012.
PRI won in all four districts of the capital Morelia, where Vallejo was governor, and the two in Uruapan. It is also ahead in Hidalgo, Zitácuaro, Apatzingán, Zinapécuaro and Múgica - 9 districts.
PAN is ahead in La Piedad, Zamora, Jiquilpan, Jacona and Tacámbaro, while PRD won Lázaro Cárdenas, Puruándiro, Zacapu, Huetamo, Maravatío, Los Reyes, Pátzcuaro and Coalcomán.
What is moreover clear, as Milenio proclaims front page in its print edition, is that the PRD lost control of the state.
Luisa María Calderón Hinojosa is in second place with 32.67.
If confirmed, this is quite an upset: All major polls had Calderón's sister Cocoa as the favorite. It will be a huge triumph for the PRI ahead of 2012.
PRI won in all four districts of the capital Morelia, where Vallejo was governor, and the two in Uruapan. It is also ahead in Hidalgo, Zitácuaro, Apatzingán, Zinapécuaro and Múgica - 9 districts.
PAN is ahead in La Piedad, Zamora, Jiquilpan, Jacona and Tacámbaro, while PRD won Lázaro Cárdenas, Puruándiro, Zacapu, Huetamo, Maravatío, Los Reyes, Pátzcuaro and Coalcomán.
What is moreover clear, as Milenio proclaims front page in its print edition, is that the PRD lost control of the state.
Michoacán election and one thing I truly detest about Mexican politics
No official results are in - none. Yet both the presidents of PAN and PRI, respectively, claim their candidate won the election with, to be sure, an "irreversible advantage."
Politics have become, to a certain extent, a race to the bottom, where each party simply calls out that it won in a better-safe-than-sorry fashion, clearly not trusting the process enough to leave this job to the official electoral authorities, yet in the process showing absolutely no regard for the democratic process or the institutions actually charged with declaring a winner.
Think 2006: First AMLO, and then Calderón, claimed to have won the election - even both had sworn to await the official results. Do they never learn, or do they simply not care?
This behavior is truly irresponsible, and only contributes toward creating more and more mistrust.
Politics have become, to a certain extent, a race to the bottom, where each party simply calls out that it won in a better-safe-than-sorry fashion, clearly not trusting the process enough to leave this job to the official electoral authorities, yet in the process showing absolutely no regard for the democratic process or the institutions actually charged with declaring a winner.
Think 2006: First AMLO, and then Calderón, claimed to have won the election - even both had sworn to await the official results. Do they never learn, or do they simply not care?
This behavior is truly irresponsible, and only contributes toward creating more and more mistrust.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)