AMLO's Alternative Project for the Nation Reloaded

The event certainly allowed for some impressive pictures: the National Auditorium, filled with what La Jornada reports to be 9,000 attendees:

                                         Photo from La Jornada

AMLO launched his 2012 bid like in 2005, with an Alternative Project for the Nation, which reads pretty much just like his 2005 manifest. Yes, there are some new additions (this article sums them up well), but from what I can see, this is much the same program as that underpinning his first presidential campaign.

(From La Jornada, a paper that has unfortunately in the case of AMLO long since discarded any semblance of objectivity and rather functions as his unofficial mouthpiece, here's AMLO's speech in its entirety. And can any piece really be any more groveling than this "report" by Jaime Avilés?)

It is not that it is really a bad program - and as various observers have pointed out, it is in many ways quite centrist (more on this later). But so was his 2005 program. It is rather AMLO's discourse and lack of respect for the democratic process that people rightly perceive as "radical."

In any event: AMLO in addition, he reiterated the now-standard line to "not be confused" - the PAN and PRI are all the same. As this remains a key argument why he (now, as opposed to in the past) opposes any PRD-PAN tactical electoral alliance, it simply begs the question: If PAN and PRI all the same, why would PRI's return be so qualitatively worse than the current PAN administration?

PRD internal election: Despite outcome, election itself big step forward

One thing to note: PRD finally moved away from the highly destructive method of electing its leadership by mass party votes, which with no single exception has ended in turmoil, fights, fraud accusations, and general disaster for party unity and the party's general image. Now, the PRD's national council instead voted - and access was restricted to the plenary only through an emergency exit, credentials checked and double checked, and after depositing the vote, each councilor had indelible ink applied to the thumb, to avoid another cochinero. And when all is said and done: It worked.

First round:  154 votes for Jesús Zambrano, 111 for Dolores Padierna, and 43 for Armando Ríos Piter.
As no 2/3 majority reached - and would not be reached for either candidate - a deal was struck for a Zambrano-Padierna compromise ticket. This received 233 votes in favor and 36 against.

The PRD also voted to ban any alliance with PAN and PRI in 2012 - so now that's official, despite AMLO's insistence that he has secret information that PRD wants a PRD-PAN formula in 2012.

Other than that, the party postponed remaining business, such as who will fill the posts on its national Secretariat, and its National Political Commission. Given the drama over the weekend, no wonder.

And then she cleaned her hand: Institutionalized schizophrenia in PRD election

After PRD's new secretary general Dolores Padierna shook hands with the party's new president Jésus Zambrano for the photographers, she sat down to wipe her hand on the table, declaring, "Better to clean it, so as not to bring bad luck."

With the risk of indulging too much in the occurrence: Could any analogy better explain what is the likely outcome of PRD's new cohabitación?

As expected, PRD's new national president is Jésus Zambrano, of the social democratic faction Nueva Izquierda, NI. The party's secretary general will be Dolores Padierna, of the social movement-oriented Izquierda Democrática Nacional, IDN.  The two groups oppose each other on virtually every level - ideology, tactics, strategies, organization, personal animosity... and of course, on whether PRD should ally with PAN in the upcoming state elections. It is true that IDN discreetly backed the 2010 alliances, only to turn against them when AMLO's anti-alliance rhetoric became increasingly hysteric, yet I am willing to bet the PRD's new president and secretary general will be in other's throats within days over this very issue.

By electing a Zambrano-Padierna "compromise" - few other options existed, it seems, given the relations of strength in the party council - the PRD has now pretty much institutionalized the schizophrenia dividing the party - a loose social movement-organization following AMLO's dictates, or an institutionalized center-left party a-la Zapatero's PSOE in Spain - by naming one from every camp for the party's two top positions.

If the IDN, nominally led by Padierna but created by her husband René Bejarano, can be persuaded that Ebrard has a better winning chance than AMLO and throw their lot with the former, this oil-and-water marriage could have a happy outcome. Yet given that, in my analysis, the division between these two blocks has been the cause of the party's main fault lines since its founding, I remain very skeptical of the feasibility of this coexistence. I hope I am wrong.

Excellent overview of the PRD factions from Milenio

I have often taken issue with many of the "overviews" of PRD's internal factions by Mexican media, as names, allegiances, alliances, positions, etc often tend to be bungled up, but this graphic gets it quite right:

PRD: A quick analyis on the Partido de la Revolución Democrática's leadership renewal

Ahead of what will likely be a final vote on Sunday, the three official candidates to be PRD's new president are Jesús Zambrano Grijalva, Dolores Padierna Luna, and Armando Ríos Piter. 


The two latter stand very little chance:  While nominally backed by most of the "G-8" or eight factions opposed to the social-democratic line of Jésus Ortega in favor of a populist movement-party tied to former presidential candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the only faction with serious weight in G-8 is IDN, which represents the clientlistic social movement organizations organized and captured by René Bejerano since the 1985 earthquake. The other 7 barely have any representation, with partial exception of IS, Izquierda Social, whose powerbase remains the secretariat for social development of Mexico City, although the secretary, Martí Batres, has seem many of his powers stripped away in recent months.

In any event, Padierna remains quite indigestible to the majority of party, and IDN members have admitted they know she stands very little chance of winning the presidency, and as such is aiming for the secretary general. According to PRD rules, this election - which thankfully will be decided by the National Council instead of an open mass member ballot, a practice that with no exception has ended in disaster - will allow the secretary general to the runner-up; the winner, in any regard, is stipulated to need 2/3 of the council's voted. 


Barring a new and "surprise" candidacy, Jésus Zambrano therefore appears the likely new president, with Padierna as secretary general. Ahead of the weekend's council meeting, Zambrano declared his candidacy. It had long  been increasingly clear that it would be Zambrano, a former guerrillero who nonetheless joined the institutional social-democratic Ortega win - and  pretty much clinched with the PRD's remarkable comeback in Guerrero, where Zambrano was campain manager.


Armando Ríos Píter, a "compromise candidate" presented by Marcelo Ebrard, is also in the running, though and unlikely candidate has he has no weight in or even knowledge of the party - not an orgánico by any means - and has been in an out of PAN and PRI before he came late to the PRD. 


A note on Ebrard: While he has presented his own alternative, Ríos Piter, he has also made it clear that he "doesn't decide" who will lead the PRD. What a difference from AMLO, who as mayor of Mexico City demanded and received an  almost complete control of the party, trumping through his pliant (and now ex-PRD) choice Leonel Cota as president. One may regard this a sign of Ebrard's lack of full backing by the PRD; a far more benevolent interpretation is that he is simply far more respectful of the autonomy the party than AMLO ever was - or remain, for that matter.


Regarding the vote over new president, one warning was launched by Senator Carlos Navarrete: If the groups can't come to any agreement, there will be no election and Ortega will continue as president until November. A few late-coming alternatives might be  Hortensia Aragón of Foro Nuevo Sol, Juan Guerra from Alternativa Democrática Nacional, Martha Dalia Gastélum from Izquierda Renovadora en Movimiento, and Alfonso Sánchez Anaya. The three former have all backed Ortega in the past; Anaya is a former governor of Tlaxcala regarded as closer to AMLO and opponent of Ortega; he bailed from PRI to join PRD in 1998. 


It is still not out of the question, however, that Ortega and Ebrard, who are allies, can muster a 2/3 majority in favor of a Zambrano-Ríos Piter slate. This will cause some serious trouble with the "G-8."


Comments from IDN spokesman Alejandro Sánchez Camacho are quite typical: He warned against "majoritarianism" and that "many will leave," unless IDN are given at least the secretary general. However, should Ortega and Ebrard manage to come up with the required 2/3, one compromise might be Zambrano-Martha Dalia Gastélum, also close to Ebrard, or Zambrano-Jésus Valencia of the Mexico State PRD. I found it doubtful that IDN would leave the party, though several of the small G-8 factions very well might. Given the utter unwillingness of many of these to accept losing votes, a negotiated exit may hurt the PRD in the short run, but strengthen it in the long run. 


In any event, if any doubt remained on the modus operandi of the AMLO-aligned groups within the PRD, Dolores Padierna declared, "Si no ganamos a la buena estamos preparados para ganar a la mala."
Few would expect otherwise.

An old-fashioned clientelism scandal in Mexico State, now on Youtube: Enrique Peña's Mexico State government

This growing scandal appears as nasty as it looks: Ahead of the July 3 gubernatorial election, PRI functionary Bernardo García Cisneros, president of the state's arbitrarion board, was caught on video (see Youtube clip here) presenting himself as representative of Governor Enrique Peña Nieto, in a meeting that included Chalco  municipal president Luis Enrique Martínez and representatives of the state's secretariat of work, asking PRI members to help with the clientelistic handout and to sign up voters for public welfare in return for their vote.

The video was seemingly shot on Feb. 14, and could hardly be more incriminating, including this line on handouts:

"We will all have to deliver them, house by house, zone by zone, section by section, personal and directly,  by every one of you, and by the people of the Secretariat of Work, who are the representatives precisely of the state government in this place."

The national presidents of  PRD and PAN, Jésus Ortega and Gustavo Madero, filed charges with the federal attorney general's office, accusing García Cisneros, the state secretariat of work, and Enrique Peña Nieto himself of the abuse of office, authority and power, influence peddling and embezzlement, all crimes under the  federal Criminal Code.

The reply from Peña Nieto could hardly be more disingenuous: "I distance the Mexico State government from what might be the the particular participation of some functionary, which will be responded to."

To repeat: García Cisneros presents himself as Peña Nieto's representative on the tape.

Cristina Díaz, PRI's new secretary general, immediately leaped to Peña Nieto's defense. PRI President Humberto "Big Mouth" Moreira has so far been uncharacteristically silent, as far as I can see.

Petroleum plunder: Happy birthday, PEMEX

Today,  March 18, is "PEMEX Day" - it is 73 years to the day since Lázaro Cárdenas nationalized foreign oil companies and eventually set up Petróleos Mexicanos.

In this regard, PEMEX director Juan José Suárez Coppel said that the the state oil company lost three billion pesos worth of gasoline last year from criminals siphoning off the petroleum. This apparently amounts to 17,000 barrels milked every day - double the figures from 2009.

El Universal, for its part, in its editorial today called for "rescuing PEMEX" from yet another plunder - the "official" one, as the oil company continues to be used as a cash cow to cover budget holes yet at cost of depleting the company for resources needed for its modernization.

Either way: PEMEX is being plundered.