An excellent overview of the political relation of forces in Mexico, as well as the upcoming electoral calendar can be found here.
As 2010 comes to a close, it is worth noting that the PRI now controls 19 of Mexico's 32 federal entities. With these states - and using the state as the entity for measurement - the old ruling party governs 59 percent of Mexico's population; the PRD governs 20 percent; and the PAN 18 percent. It is also notable that the PRD and PAN, thanks to their unprecedented state-level coalitions to wrest power from the PRI in states that had never been governed by an opposition party (82 years of hegemony), wrested control from the PRI of 11 percent of Mexico's population - thanks to its gubernatorial victories in Oaxaca, Puebla, and Sinaloa.
2011 will see gubernatorial elections in Baja California Sur, Coahuila, Mexico State, Guerrero, Michoacán and Nayarit. The PRD leadership is seeking further state coalitions with PAN in Coahuila, Nayarit and, to be sure, Mexico State, all of which are adamantly opposed by AMLO. Given his rejection of the PRD leadership as "traitors" and active campaigning against the coalitions, will AMLO succeed in sabotaging them in 2011?
Friday, December 31, 2010
Non-aggression pact Ebrard-Peña Nieto
Also of note recently is the declaration by Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard that he and Mexico State Governor Enrique Peña Nieto has agreed to a a pact to "avoid conflicts" on the road to the 2012 presidential election. As far as I can see, no concrete details of this non-aggression pact has been revealed, though it is certainly an admission that the 2012 race is well on its way, and that its temperature is rising rapidly.
Ebrard also assured there will be no confrontation between him and AMLO in the coming year. I've also been told that pigs may indeed fly. We shall see.
Ebrard also assured there will be no confrontation between him and AMLO in the coming year. I've also been told that pigs may indeed fly. We shall see.
The PRD's new party president: Candidates ready
As announced on Dec 17, all of PRD´s main party factions agreed that the election for the successor to current PRD president Jesús Ortega will take place at the latest on March 19, and that the winner will immediately take office. This was a step forward: Right up until the last minute, the "radicals" in the PRD, most of whom are supporters of AMLO more than they are true backers of the PRD, threatened physical violence to force Ortega to step down. This particular segment of the PRD, led above all by the scandal-prone corriente IDN of René Bejarano-Dolores Padierna, has issued similar threats, and acted upon then, on numerous other occasions. It should be noted here that the March election is actually a concession from the Ortega camp: After all, he was elected for a three-year tenure in March 2008, yet was unable to take office until the end of that year due to the failure of the "radicals" (the quotation mark is there for a purpose: Many of them are highly socially conservative) to accept Ortega´s victory.
Three main candidates have now been lined up: Jesús Zambrano, national deputy for the party and member of Ortega´s social-democratic Nueva Izquierda wing; Hortensia Aragón, current secretary general of the party and of the Foro Nuevo Sol faction, which is currently allied with Ortega though it has been quite opportunistic in recent years in order to maintain its presence in the Mexico City government; and Dolores Padierna of the Izquierda Democrática Nacional.
The method by which the new party president will be elected has not yet been determined, though one alternative aired is by a 2/3 vote in the PRD's national council, where Ortega and his allies has a majority but not a 2/3 one.
My own thoughts: The party must at all costs avoid a divisive election by the mass base, which on every occasion has proved a disaster. Yet as El Universal notes, merely agreeing on the type of election brings the risk of rupture in itself. This is, in essence, the product of the the uneasy marriage between social democratic and left-leaning party builders on the one hand, and the anti-institutional and often populist movement-advocates, on the other, which has been the main source of the PRD's internal woes ever since its birth in 1989.
Michoacán and the PRD
Following the dramatic attacks by La Familia Michoacana on particular Dec. 8-10, and with the backdrop of the desafuero or removal of legislative immunity of the PRD deputy Julio Godoy Toscano, half-brother of Michoacán Governor Leonel Godoy, the PRD held an emergency conference of sorts in Morelia where the party closed ranks behind the governor. In what was named the Declaración de Michoacán, much of the top PRD leadership from all camps in the party in seven points reiterated its support for the fight against organized crime, regardless of the party colors and, pointedly, family ties of those involved. At the same time, the party strongly backed Leonel Godoy, and again called for the federal government to "rethink the strategy" in its war on the drug gangs.
Notably, Michoacán was recently deemed by Mexico´s national human rights commission (Comisión Nacional de los Derechos Humanos, CNDH) to be the most insecure entity in the country, given the level of complaints filed with the CNDH: 265 (vs. 240 in Chihuahua), of which 130 against the defense ministry, 107 against the Federal police, and 21 against the attorney general´s office, mainly on issues such as illegal searches and cruel treatment of citizens.
I do not wish for a moment to downplay the possible human rights violations taking place in Michoacán, but there seems to me to be a bit of a dubious methodology in place here: The more complaints = more human rights violations.For onem the high number of complaints may merely reflect a more active civil society or, less benignly, a more organized campaign by La Familia to push citizens to lodge such complaints. After all, the group has organized plenty of "demonstrations" against the presence of the military and the federal police. Also, as La Jornada reports, many of the complaints were also lodged against entities such as IMSS and ISSTE. Yet most obvious of all: A claim that Michoacán is worse than Chihuahuha in terms of human rights violations should strike even the most casual observer of Mexico as utterly absurd. It is perhaps quite understandable that the PRD, through its Secretary General Hortensia Aragón, would recently warn against an "ambush" by the federal government against Michoacàn, a state where President Felipe Calderón, lest we forget, hopes to see his sister Luisa María elected governor in 2011.
Notably, Michoacán was recently deemed by Mexico´s national human rights commission (Comisión Nacional de los Derechos Humanos, CNDH) to be the most insecure entity in the country, given the level of complaints filed with the CNDH: 265 (vs. 240 in Chihuahua), of which 130 against the defense ministry, 107 against the Federal police, and 21 against the attorney general´s office, mainly on issues such as illegal searches and cruel treatment of citizens.
I do not wish for a moment to downplay the possible human rights violations taking place in Michoacán, but there seems to me to be a bit of a dubious methodology in place here: The more complaints = more human rights violations.For onem the high number of complaints may merely reflect a more active civil society or, less benignly, a more organized campaign by La Familia to push citizens to lodge such complaints. After all, the group has organized plenty of "demonstrations" against the presence of the military and the federal police. Also, as La Jornada reports, many of the complaints were also lodged against entities such as IMSS and ISSTE. Yet most obvious of all: A claim that Michoacán is worse than Chihuahuha in terms of human rights violations should strike even the most casual observer of Mexico as utterly absurd. It is perhaps quite understandable that the PRD, through its Secretary General Hortensia Aragón, would recently warn against an "ambush" by the federal government against Michoacàn, a state where President Felipe Calderón, lest we forget, hopes to see his sister Luisa María elected governor in 2011.
Michoacán, 2010
First things first: Many thanks for the kind greetings for my wedding. Despite highly aggressive attacks carried out by La Familia Michoacana - they burned buses, cars, and gas stations in order to block every exit from Morelia just days before our big day - things passed very smoothly, and we've spent the past weeks in Michoacàn, as well as a bi/centennial road trip to Zacatecas (the most famous battle of the Revolution, Pancho Villa's June 23, 1914 toma de Zacatecas), Aguascalientes (site of Teatro Morelos, where the famous Convención de Aguascalientes took place Oct-Nov 1914, which we were lucky to get to see despite it being usually closed to visitors), Dolores de Hidalgo (where it all began with the Grito de Dolores on Sept. 16 2010), as well as San Miguel de Allende, birthplace of the Ignacio Allende, who in revisionist accounts appear a far more important organizer and implementor of the 1810 than the honorable Hidalgo. A fantastic trip, though traveling on Michoacán car plates warranted a bit too many uncomfortable stares.
(On a side note: Regarding traveling in Mexico, Malcolm Beith has an excellent post to which I wholeheartedly concur, and I take the liberty to emphasize two points: Avoid the carretera libre as much as you can, and do not drive at night: After spending three weeks here, the main change from my last visit this summer is that now everyone, from family to neighbors to friends, seem to have a story to tell of highway robberies at night, even on the autopista de cuota, so this is one thing I have definitely avoided)
Be that as it may: On the last day of 2010 and the 2000s, I wish everyone the very best for the new year, with hopes that the next decade will be far better than the one we are leaving behind. Thank you very much for reading.
(On a side note: Regarding traveling in Mexico, Malcolm Beith has an excellent post to which I wholeheartedly concur, and I take the liberty to emphasize two points: Avoid the carretera libre as much as you can, and do not drive at night: After spending three weeks here, the main change from my last visit this summer is that now everyone, from family to neighbors to friends, seem to have a story to tell of highway robberies at night, even on the autopista de cuota, so this is one thing I have definitely avoided)
Be that as it may: On the last day of 2010 and the 2000s, I wish everyone the very best for the new year, with hopes that the next decade will be far better than the one we are leaving behind. Thank you very much for reading.
Thursday, December 16, 2010
The Inconvenient Brother: Julio Godoy Toscano loses congressional immunity
The Mexican lower house of congress voted to remove the fuero or immunity from legal persecution from the "inconvenient" (half)brother of Governor Leonel Gody, Julio Godoy Toscano, national deputy for the PRD. The vote was massive: 384-2, with 21 abstentions. Godoy, who reportedly has already removed his things from his office in San Lázaro, thus lost his legislative immunity and can face the criminal charges against him presented by the PGR, the attorney general's office. Most of the PRD deputies voted as well in favor: The party wants to get this case over as soon as possible, to avoid the negative publicity ahead of the upcoming gubernatorial elections in Michoacán last year. With the fuero removed, hopefully Mexicans will know eventually whether Godoy Toscano is indeed guilty, or if this is, as Godoy himself has argued, a political persection.
Guerrero: The wife did it, or persecution of Armando Chavarría's widow?
I've written before about the murder of PRD legislator Armando Chavarría in Guerrero last year.
Now, another turn of events: The state prosecutor's office have ordered an investigation of the assets of Chavarría's widow, Martha Obeso Cázares, specifically properties in her name. One of the lines of investigation of Chavarría's murder is, to be sure, that his wife did it, though so far no evidence has surfaced in public. Obeso Cázares claims it is a pure persecution by the attorney general's office and Governor Zeferino Torreblanca, with the aim to intimidate her and to divert the investigation of the real killers.
Did Chavarría's widow really do it? Or is this just the revenge of Torreblanca for all her critiques of him, his administration, and the investigation of her husband's murder?
Now, another turn of events: The state prosecutor's office have ordered an investigation of the assets of Chavarría's widow, Martha Obeso Cázares, specifically properties in her name. One of the lines of investigation of Chavarría's murder is, to be sure, that his wife did it, though so far no evidence has surfaced in public. Obeso Cázares claims it is a pure persecution by the attorney general's office and Governor Zeferino Torreblanca, with the aim to intimidate her and to divert the investigation of the real killers.
Did Chavarría's widow really do it? Or is this just the revenge of Torreblanca for all her critiques of him, his administration, and the investigation of her husband's murder?
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