The internal elections in the Partido Acción Nacional (PAN) for its new party president for the next three years, a highly significant political event on its own, was given added importance because it was the first elections in five years that actually saw what appears to have been a real competition, unlike the previous dedazos of former party presidents Germán Martínez and César Nava. Yet the two front runners, Gustavo Madero and Roberto Gil, were both considered Calderón's candidates, and in essence, the new CEN (Comité Ejecutivo Nacional) will clearly be loyally calderonista.
Things seemed on the surface calm Saturday, with one exception: Former party president Manuel Espino, recently expelled from the party, tried to elbow himself in to the PAN compound in Mexico City with hundreds of his followers, yet was told that he would be not allowed to vote, despite the regulation that all former party presidents will have a lifetime seat on the PAN council, which elects the party president.
As the voting rounds progressed, when it became clear that Gustavo Madero was picking up the most votes, Roberto Gil announced he would also decline in the name of party unity, making Madero the winner. The immediate question was, of course: What would Gil get in return for his declination?
Now we know: Gil was apparently promised a significant chunk of the PAN's 40-strong executive committee, as the new president has the right to appoint 2/3 of these. Now Gil claims that Madero failed to keep such a bargain. Madero responded that this is "false," and also refused to affirm that any such agreement actually existed.
The new CEN will have quite a few notable members, such as:
* Luisa María Calderón Hinojosa - yep, the president's sister, who wants to be Michoacán governor
* Cecilia Romero, who was also a candidate for the presidency and represents El Yunque
* Jorge Ocejo, head of the "Rightwing International," Organización Demócrata Cristiana de América
* Maximiliano Córtazar, former presidential spokesperson
* Mariana Gómez del Campo, head of the PAN's legislative group in the Mexico City assembly
* Federal Secretary of Public Administration Salvador Vega Casillas
* Federal Secretary of Communications Juan Molina Horcasitas
* Governor of Morelos, Marco Antonio Adame,
* Governor of Guanajuato, Juan Manuel Oliva.
In other words, one should make no mistake: This is a calderonista executive committee, through and through, and Madero - a man with the charisma of a grey rock - will very likely be a highly loyal servant of the Mexican President.
Madero proposed 27 out of the 40 members, with the national council the rest, and this appears a rough measure of strength:
- Maderistas, 20
- Cecilia Romero and the yunquistas, 8
- Gil, only 6
It has not yet been decided who will head the powerful position of secretary general, but likely it will be Cecilia Romero, also a close friend of and ultra-loyal to Calderón. Should this happen, Gil, who thought one of his people deserved this secretariat, will not be happy, and more trouble may be expected.
More details here: La Jornada, El Universal, Milenio
Monday, December 6, 2010
Saturday, December 4, 2010
Nayarit 2011 elections: PAN-PRD alliance official, of sorts. For AMLO, history repeated as farce
The national presidents of PRD and PAN, Jesús Ortega and César Nava respectively, signed a "letter of intent" where the parties committed to maintain an electoral alliance for the upcoming gubernatorial elections in Nayarit, regardless of whether the candidate will be a perredista or panista.
PRD has a very strong card: Federal deputy Guadalupe Acosta Naranjo, a very congenial man who tends to be popular with most everyone and has moreover a reputation as an effective leader. Acosta Naranjo was just granted a leave of absence from the Chamber of Deputies, and has already started criss-crossing the state, which will hold elections July 3, 2011.
However, the wife of former governor Antonio Echavarría, Martha Elena García, also a PRD deputy, has declared she will also run for the nomination. To recall, PRD ran Nayarit 1999-2005, when AMLO enticed Antonio Echavarría to dump the PRI to join the PRD and run for governor under a broad alliance that also included the PAN - yes, the party that AMLO is now loudly declaring it is impossible to ally with anywhere at all given "principled differences." AMLO has, of course, opposed a PAN-PRD alliance in Nayarit in 2011. Of course, since 1999, much water has run under the bridge, such as the 2006 elections, which AMLO claims cheated him from victory. To be upset at PAN for 2006 is of course quite understandably, if you truly believe a fraud took place. Yet claiming "principled differences" is just pure hypocrisy, given AMLO's promotion of the previous PAN-PRD alliance in Nayarit.
Note that Martha Elena García already in 2005 wanted to become governor to succeed her husband - which should make alarm bells of nepotism ring loudly. The kicker: She was then not a PRD member, nor a PRI member, but sought the PAN nomination (!) - only the arch-opportunistic party Convergencia backed her candidacy then, which she desisted from, and renounced from the PAN. Her PRD credentials are, to put it mildly, wafer thin. Yet don't be surprised if AMLO backs her nomination: Guadalupe Acosta Naranjo, a man who has never been a PRI or PAN member yet with a life-long pedigree on the political left, is also a member of the social-democratic PRD faction Nueva Izquierda, which AMLO loathes.
PRD has a very strong card: Federal deputy Guadalupe Acosta Naranjo, a very congenial man who tends to be popular with most everyone and has moreover a reputation as an effective leader. Acosta Naranjo was just granted a leave of absence from the Chamber of Deputies, and has already started criss-crossing the state, which will hold elections July 3, 2011.
However, the wife of former governor Antonio Echavarría, Martha Elena García, also a PRD deputy, has declared she will also run for the nomination. To recall, PRD ran Nayarit 1999-2005, when AMLO enticed Antonio Echavarría to dump the PRI to join the PRD and run for governor under a broad alliance that also included the PAN - yes, the party that AMLO is now loudly declaring it is impossible to ally with anywhere at all given "principled differences." AMLO has, of course, opposed a PAN-PRD alliance in Nayarit in 2011. Of course, since 1999, much water has run under the bridge, such as the 2006 elections, which AMLO claims cheated him from victory. To be upset at PAN for 2006 is of course quite understandably, if you truly believe a fraud took place. Yet claiming "principled differences" is just pure hypocrisy, given AMLO's promotion of the previous PAN-PRD alliance in Nayarit.
Note that Martha Elena García already in 2005 wanted to become governor to succeed her husband - which should make alarm bells of nepotism ring loudly. The kicker: She was then not a PRD member, nor a PRI member, but sought the PAN nomination (!) - only the arch-opportunistic party Convergencia backed her candidacy then, which she desisted from, and renounced from the PAN. Her PRD credentials are, to put it mildly, wafer thin. Yet don't be surprised if AMLO backs her nomination: Guadalupe Acosta Naranjo, a man who has never been a PRI or PAN member yet with a life-long pedigree on the political left, is also a member of the social-democratic PRD faction Nueva Izquierda, which AMLO loathes.
AMLO: Calderón lies about Chàvez ties. He is probably right
According to leaked cable 231175, part of the Wikileaks cache, Calderón expressed worry to the United States that Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez was financing AMLO's and PRD's campaign - and as late as October 2009, reiterated fears of Venezuelan meddling in Mexican politics
To recall, during the 2006 electoral campaign this was turned into open swift boat-style campaign ads, where AMLO was deemed a "Danger to Mexico" with images of Chávez imposed. According to AMLO, "Calderón is a pathological liar." I am hard pressed to object. Absolutely no evidence has ever surfaced that the PRD or AMLO received as much as a bolivar in support from Chávez: It was a lie then, and it remains a lie today.
Yet why would Calderón still suggest this to the U.S. embassy? Two alternatives - you make your pick:
(Not that anyone should be forced to prove a negative - "prove to me that God did not create the earth in six days" - it think the Chávez-AMLO link is most easily dismissed from the fact that AMLO cares absolutely nothing at all about foreign relations, and hasn't the slightest interest in other leftwing governments of the region. One anecdote: During the infamous desafuero, or where Fox disgraced himself by trying to keep AMLO out of the presidential contest, then-ambassador from Brazil and a major big shot in the Brazilian PT wanted to hand over a letter to AMLO where Lula expressed his strong support for AMLO, yet AMLO didn't even take the time to meet him. Another story: When Bolivian President Evo Morales visited Mexico a few months back, AMLO didn't even take time off from his nth "tour-of-every-municipality" to meet him, because frankly, he doesn't give a damn.)
To recall, during the 2006 electoral campaign this was turned into open swift boat-style campaign ads, where AMLO was deemed a "Danger to Mexico" with images of Chávez imposed. According to AMLO, "Calderón is a pathological liar." I am hard pressed to object. Absolutely no evidence has ever surfaced that the PRD or AMLO received as much as a bolivar in support from Chávez: It was a lie then, and it remains a lie today.
Yet why would Calderón still suggest this to the U.S. embassy? Two alternatives - you make your pick:
1) Calderón truly believed Chávez was backing AMLO financially, and the Wikileaks as such merely reflect this fear.
2) Calderón did know this claim was false, yet still wanted the United States to believe Chávez was backing AMLO; the Wikileaks cable as such really reflects that Calderón wanted the U.S to hear.
(Not that anyone should be forced to prove a negative - "prove to me that God did not create the earth in six days" - it think the Chávez-AMLO link is most easily dismissed from the fact that AMLO cares absolutely nothing at all about foreign relations, and hasn't the slightest interest in other leftwing governments of the region. One anecdote: During the infamous desafuero, or where Fox disgraced himself by trying to keep AMLO out of the presidential contest, then-ambassador from Brazil and a major big shot in the Brazilian PT wanted to hand over a letter to AMLO where Lula expressed his strong support for AMLO, yet AMLO didn't even take the time to meet him. Another story: When Bolivian President Evo Morales visited Mexico a few months back, AMLO didn't even take time off from his nth "tour-of-every-municipality" to meet him, because frankly, he doesn't give a damn.)
Thursday, December 2, 2010
Quintana Roo passes anti-trafficking law: 45 years for culprits
The state congress in Quintana Roo unanimously passed an anti-human trafficking law that stipulates up to 45 years in prison for the crime, which the state, given its location heavily developed tourism industry, is particularly vulnerable to. The law began as an initiative by PRD state legislator Luz María Beristáin Navarrete: Credit where credit's due.
"He wanted to fuck him over" confirmed by Fox
Back in 2007, Proceso in an excerpt from the Jorge Castañeda-Rubén Aguilar book La Diferencia revealed that, according to his former functionaries, "He wanted to fuck him over": Fox wanted to do everything possible to destroy AMLO's presidential ambitions. With the failed desafuro, Fox certainly battered his own democratic credentials.
The battering continues, and yet again it is self inflicted: In an interview with Mario Campos, she asks the former president: "Did you load the dice against AMLO?" And Fox responds:
"Yes certainly, to whatever extent I could, and it is democratic, and for that I say, as I've said before, it was a second win for me."
Call it what you want, but don't call it democratic. It is simply remarkable how Fox himself continues to tear down what remains of his image as the harbinger of democracy in Mexico.
The battering continues, and yet again it is self inflicted: In an interview with Mario Campos, she asks the former president: "Did you load the dice against AMLO?" And Fox responds:
"Yes certainly, to whatever extent I could, and it is democratic, and for that I say, as I've said before, it was a second win for me."
Call it what you want, but don't call it democratic. It is simply remarkable how Fox himself continues to tear down what remains of his image as the harbinger of democracy in Mexico.
Finally, the AMLO-Ebrard break: "The mafia" wants Ebrard to win
It will not be easy to pinpoint exactly the "day" or "moment" of the AMLO-Ebrard break - Ebrard's campaigning on behalf of the PRD-PAN alliances in the summer of 2010, AMLO's highly public rejection of an alliance with PAN in Mexico state, or a range of other smaller events that each could be interpreted as the break.
Yet to me, yesterday's event certainly counts as definitive : In Soledad de Graciano Sánchez, in the state of Luis Potosí, ahead of a meeting with his supporters, AMLO gave an interview where he expressed certainty that he would win the PRD presidential nomination, and then came the shocker: With regards to a possible Ebrard victory in the struggle for the nomination, this is what the mafia wants.
So the bad guys - Salinas et al - wants Ebrard to win the nomination, and not AMLO. Forget about sharing a projects; it really is about personalities. And when the day comes that Ebrard wins... expect AMLO to denounce his victory as a fraud and orchestrated by the mafia.
With apologies for the theatrics: Consider the AMLO-Ebrard break as finalized.
Yet to me, yesterday's event certainly counts as definitive : In Soledad de Graciano Sánchez, in the state of Luis Potosí, ahead of a meeting with his supporters, AMLO gave an interview where he expressed certainty that he would win the PRD presidential nomination, and then came the shocker: With regards to a possible Ebrard victory in the struggle for the nomination, this is what the mafia wants.
So the bad guys - Salinas et al - wants Ebrard to win the nomination, and not AMLO. Forget about sharing a projects; it really is about personalities. And when the day comes that Ebrard wins... expect AMLO to denounce his victory as a fraud and orchestrated by the mafia.
With apologies for the theatrics: Consider the AMLO-Ebrard break as finalized.
Institutional innovation: Cué proposes recall referendum
In his inaugural speech yesterday day, Gabino Cué announced he would send a proposal to congress for "revocation of mandate," or simply put the mechanism of a recall referendum.
This is excellent news. I am a strong critic of the excessive length of the term of governors in Mexico, which in most cases is six years, and a recall referendum seems like an excellent tool if the desired goal is indeed to introduce more accountability in the political system. While the details of Cué's proposal are not known as yet, these typically involve a petition by a certain percentage of the electorate, which would turn it over to the government, who would then, if the petition is valid, call for a referendum where people are asked whether they want the sitting government out or not.
The very idea of a recall referendum, if used responsibly, is quite an institutional innovation. Credit must go here to Hugo Chávez in Venezuela, who, as far as I know, was the first country on earth to implement this mechanism, and actually allowed one to be held. So far, from what I gather, only Bolivia and Ecuador, have followed suit in their new constitutions.
One final line from Cué:
"Woe to those who under my term will but their personal well being ahead of the Oaxacan people!"
Ojalá que sí.
This is excellent news. I am a strong critic of the excessive length of the term of governors in Mexico, which in most cases is six years, and a recall referendum seems like an excellent tool if the desired goal is indeed to introduce more accountability in the political system. While the details of Cué's proposal are not known as yet, these typically involve a petition by a certain percentage of the electorate, which would turn it over to the government, who would then, if the petition is valid, call for a referendum where people are asked whether they want the sitting government out or not.
The very idea of a recall referendum, if used responsibly, is quite an institutional innovation. Credit must go here to Hugo Chávez in Venezuela, who, as far as I know, was the first country on earth to implement this mechanism, and actually allowed one to be held. So far, from what I gather, only Bolivia and Ecuador, have followed suit in their new constitutions.
One final line from Cué:
"Woe to those who under my term will but their personal well being ahead of the Oaxacan people!"
Ojalá que sí.
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