Cristina Fernández in Mexico

Argentine President Cristina Fernández is visiting Mexico, after the postponement of an earlier planned trip. She notably met first with Carlos Slim and other businessmen - Slim is said to consider major investments in Argentina. Both Fernández and her foreign minister, Héctor Timerman, has expressed criticism of U.S. drug fighting strategies: Timerman noted that,

"we already know from where the guns come, and who consumes the drugs; what Mexico provides, is the dead"

Fernández expressed solidarity with Mexico over the scourge of the drug cartels, and called for the more developed countries to reduce consumption, weapons smuggling, and money laundering.

All pretty sensible to me.

The best allies money can buy: The Arce-Círigo brothers, now with PRI

After Carlos Loret de Mola first noted the development in his column, it's now official:
The Arce-Círigo brothers - René Arce and Víctor Hugo Círigo - have amazingly enough, after ditching the PRD in 2009, lined up behind PRI. The Mexico City power brokers - their main stronghold remains Iztapalapa - have now allied with the PRI and Peña Nieto, Senator René Arce announced yesterday.

The El Universal article puts its best in its opening line: "René Arce has always played to the highest bidder," as has his brother. The two ditched the PRD in 2009 when they failed to win control of Iztapalapa, which they earlier took turns governing,  and have now quite notably lined up behind Eruviel Ávila for Mexico State governor. Former PRD deputy Ruth Zavaleta, who also governed the borough Venustiano Carranza, is also closely allied with the brothers (she is the girlfriend of René), and was the first to publicly join Peña Nieto and the PRI, in the failed PRI campaign in Guerrero (she earlier quixotically tried to be the gubernatorial candidate there).

Outside of Mexico City - the importance of the newfound allies lies, of course, in the proximity of the former to key urban zones of Mexico State, which in places completely overlap - an additional new ex-PRD ally is José Diego León Díaz, a former regidor of Neza, who claimed to bring with him 4,000 PRD supperters over to the side of Eruviel Ávila.

PRD candidate for governor Alejandro Encinas said it best: "unfortunately, there are some compañeros who can be bough." The same, of course, applies eminently well to the Arce-Círigo brothers.
Yet beyond the PRD woes, while hardly new, it is a deeply troubling development, as one can hardly blame citizens for their cynicism toward politicians and political parties, with such a spineless lack of ideological and party loyalty.

For Eruviel Ávila, and of course for Peña Nieto in 2012 and whomever the PRI postulates for Mexico City governor, this is an important tactical victory.

José Ángel Córdova goes for Guanajuato - what will El Yunque do?

Mexico's very able secretary of health, José Ángel Córdova Villalobos, will step down in September in order to seek the PAN's nomination to be governor of Guanajuato.

Guanajuato Governor Juan Manuel Oliva will not be happy with this. He is instead pushing his own candidate, namely his state secretary of social development, Miguel Márquez Márquez, linked to the secret extremist Catholic society El Yunque, as is another former government secretary and Yunquista, Gerardo Mosqueda Martínez.

Yet Córdova - a far more liberal-minded panista -  remains very popular in Guanajuato. He has even kept up his local practice and continued to receive patients - all the while remaining the federal secretary of health. It will truly be a challenge for El Yunque, despite their strength in Guanajuato, to take on such credentials.

INM collusion with organized crime continues

An in-depth story in yesterday's El Universal is a recommended read on the plight of migrants in Mexico, who, as the priest Heyden Vázquez Medina of the migrant shelter Hogar de la Misericordia in Arriaga, Chiapas details, are continually abused by INM agents often in direct collusion with organized crime.

How many of these stories will it take before INM head Salvador Beltrán del Río stop sheepishly dismissing them as "exceptions"?

Yet another bad omen for 2012: IFE councilors attack own president

It may be exaggerated to call it a civil war, as IFE's Marco Antonio Baños and Francisco Guerrero make out a "dynamic duo" that for a long time has consistently defended the PRI rather than Mexican democracy as councilors of Mexico's federal electoral institute, but it certainly does not bode well for IFE's future stability that said councilors launch a full broadside against their own boss, IFE president Leonardo Valdés, in media, directly claiming that he really does not know about IFE´s internal work, being more busy with international conferences and backing a proposed political reform, rather than engaging himself in IFE´s preparations for 2012.

Whoever is right here, it´s a bad omen for 2012.

Mexico City Polls: For PRD, the opponent to beat is the PRI.

Here are the results from a recent poll on vote intention in Mexico City, in today's El Universal (direct link to detailed PFD here). Notably, for the PRD, which leads in party intention with 26 percent, in every imaginable scenario (the paper lists an amazing 10 options), PAN leads in none, with the PRD and PRI coming on top in respective candidate scenarios.

A consistent vote winner: PRI's ex-president Beatriz Paredes Rangel. Will the 2012 PRI formula be Peña Nieto-Paredes? Much caution nonetheless: At this point, of course, polls more than anything reflect merely name recognition.

A poor Economist article on Mexico

A recent Economist article that attempts a side-by-side comparison of Marcelo Ebrard/Mexico City and Enrique Peña Nieto/Mexico State fails badly when it comes to informing its reader, stumbling as it does into social science territory with what may be an agenda of its own, namely to varnish the highly dubious crime-fighting credentials of the Mexico State governor.

In its attempt to outline the different crime strategies and successes of Ebrard and Peña Nieto, the article neglects to mention, to cite but two examples, the explosive rise in femicidios in Mexico State, and the very poor handling of the Paulette case, but  instead seems to suggest that Mexico State has been equally or even more successful than its Mexico City neighbor in reducing crime. I have never read any serious study that corroborates this - quite the opposite.

After making no mention of the unique social programs in Mexico City created by Andrés Manuel López Obrador and much developed by Ebrard, the article claims that "If Mr Ebrard has a slight edge in keeping a lid on violence, that is mainly because he has a big, unified police force."

Is it really? What is the evidence for this grandiose claim? What about counter claims that Mexico City has been remarkably successful in staving off violence through the use of other mechanisms such as innovative social programs for youth and young adults?

Readers of The Economist should keep well in mind the old adage: That which is postulated without any evidence may also be completely dismissed without any evidence.

Illiteracy in Mexico: 6.9 percent

Alonso Lujambio, secretary of education, said the level of illiteracy in Mexico is currently 6.9 percent, with 1.6 percent illiteracy in the 15-24-years group.

It is here I am yet again annoyed by the practice of Mexican newspapers of "strict reporting" rather than actual journalism. Any comparative context? Is illiteracy rising or falling? One would think it would be quite natural to include this context in a story on illiteracy.

Jeffrey Davidow on current US-Mexican relations

Jeffrey Davidow was the U.S. ambassador to Mexico 1998-2002 (he wrote a rather frank book about these years, though not exactly self-critical), and has since 2003 been head of the Institute of the Americas at UC-San Diego. He recently was interviewed by El Universal, where he called the current level of U.S.-Mexican cooperation "incredible":

"I would say that things have changed a lot. If someone had told me 10 years ago that the United States would send $500 million a year in counternarcotics assistance to Mexico and that the Mexican government would accept it, I would have said it was impossible."

PRI candidate Eruviel Ávila offers rewards for vote promotion in Mexico State

Eruviel Ávila, PRI's candidate for governor in Mexico State, openly offers rewards for vote promotion: Those in his campaign who "promote" the vote most efficiently, will be rewarded with public office, cars, household appliances, or positions in the party.

Luis Videgaray, head of the Mexico State PRI branch, defended the practice as "legitimate."

What more evidence does one need that the "New PRI" of Enrique Peña Nieto is exactly the same as the old PRI? The PRI governed Mexico for 71 years and has governed the miserable Mexico State for 82.

Marcelo Ebrard's inspirations: Lula and Felipe González

Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard said in an interview with Milenio that his "great hope" was to run a national government from 2012 like that of Brazil´s Lula da Silva (2003-2011) or Spain´s socialist prime minister (1982-1996) Felipe González, locating his ideological and political views squarely on the centre-left.

I find it hard to imagine AMLO making any similar international references (he earlier, as it were, rejected any of these three referents, in 2005).

Michoacán: Tierra Caliente violence as La Familia splinters?

Mexican marines arrived in Apatzingán municipality Thursday, following of days of narco fighting that has left thousands of people homeless. Apatzingán lies in Michoacán's Tierra Caliente region, and is the home turf of La Familia Michoacàna. What appears particularly noteworthy is that the violence appears due to infighting within La Familia, with a new organization, named Los Caballeros Templarios, seemingly taking on old allies in La Familia, headed by José de Jesús "El Chango" Méndez. Most of Michoacán´s violence, as far as I can tell, has earlier been between La Familia and the Zetas, and the seeming split in the former appears a new development.

Various refugee shelters have been set up for the thousands of people, mostly poor agricultural workers, who have been affected by the violence and forced to flee from their home, particularly from the town of Buenavista close to Apatzingán. Even the BBC has picked up the story.

Notably - and this took me quite by surprise - PAN and the PRD, and seemingly also PRI, did not only agree to a "civility pact" in the state, which has elections coming up in November,  but also a common gubernatorial candidacy, something promoted particularly by PAN and PRD´s presidents, Gustavo Madero, and Jesús Zambrano. Earlier, Governor Leonel Godoy expressed strong opposition to the idea, yet now seems more open. Whatever will come out of it, it is an indication that the national parties are well aware that Michoacán is facing an immense onslaught from organized crime, and that new options are now on the table.

Madero vs. Calderón

Yet another case in point that relations between president Felipe Calderón and PAN president Gustavo Madero are hardly stellar: Following the proclamations of support by a range of prominent PAN members, linked directly to the president and his wife, of the presidential ambitions of Ernesto Cordero, Madero remarked in an interview that the letter was "inconvenient," "doesn't contribute" to the process," and "creates inappropriate pressure."

Abraham González Uyeda, who in 2004 lent his ranch to Felipe Calderón for his candidacy declaration, said he would gladly lend it to Cordero for his announcement.

Will history again be repeated as farce when it comes to the PAN presidential nomination?

Calderón's PAN rallies behind Ernesto Cordero as presidential candidate

A group of 134 prominent panistas declared their support for Ernesto Cordero as PAN's presidential candidate in 2012 in a manifesto entitled "United with Ernesto." They included notably the governors of the Bajas, Puebla, and Sonora, and the family of the deceased Juan Camilo Mouriño, former PAN leader César Nava, and a range of senators, deputies, subsecretaries and other members of PAN closely linked to President Felipe Calderón and his wife Margarita Zavela (including her personal secretary).

The full letter can be accessed here, on the conveniently entitled Web page, unidosconernesto.mx/

I don´t buy earlier suggestions that Calderón is merely using Cordero as some kind of "decoy": This is his preferred successor.

Guerrero: Aguirre goes after Torreblanca

Guerrero Governor Ángel Aguirre requested the intervention of the federal audit, or the Auditoría Superior de la Federación (ASF) to investigate the whereabouts of more than seven billion pesos meant for the state education ministry, but mysteriously missing.


Right now, Pricewaterhouse Coopers is undertaking an audit of the administration of Zeferino Torreblanca (2005-2011), and education secretary Silvia Romero Suáre suggested that much more is yet to come.


We'll see.


Earlier this year, El Universal published several damning indictment of Torreblanca's administration (here and here). His supporters claimed improved public infrastructure, given more than 6,000 public works commissioned by the administration, yet he left behind a state overrun by organized crime - in violence, Guerrero is only surpassed by Chihuahua and Durango (45/100,000) - and with severe setbacks in health and education Particularly damning is an increase in mortality rates. A third of Guerrero's inhabitants live in extreme poverty, and illiteracy is rife. Zeferino also proved inept in resolving political crimes such as the much-publicized murder of Armando Chavarría, president of the state congress, in 2009. He broke completely with the party that postulated him, PRD, which he never joined. The PRD was able to elect Aguirre in spite of, and not because of, Zeferino's lackluster administration.


Yet he had his supporters - among them President Felipe Calderón, who defended Torreblanca, yet appeared incapable of taking note of any particular achievement.


Zeferino´s own pathetic defense? If the state of Guerrero is a disaster, it´s because the entire country is a disaster. A more damning admission, impossible.

The end of the Mexican president's pocket veto

A notable legislative reform: The Permanent Commission of the Mexican Senate declared valid a constitutional reform that eliminates the so-called "pocket veto" of the Mexican president.

What this means in short is that while earlier the Mexican president could in certain cases allow bills to linger on indefinitely by not signing them, now the presidents of the Chamber of Deputies and of the Senate will have the authority to do so. Reportedly more than 52 legislative projects await the president's signature.

After now receiving approval from 19 state legislatures, the amendment to the Constitution, originally from 2008, will now become law as soon as it is published in the Diario Oficial.

Michoacán: Battle to be PAN's nominee likely to get nasty

Luisa María Calderón Hinojosa, or "Cocoa," is the sister of President Felipe Calderón. Quite controversially, she now seeks to become PAN's nominee for the 2011 gubernatorial contest, the last state election ahead of the 2012 presidential elections.

The controversy may be obvious: As the president's sister, "Cocoa" will almost by default have accusations launched that the president is loading the dice in her favor. She admitted there will be "tension" in the fight over the nomination, but rejected any dirty play. Her main opponent is Marko Cortés Mendoza, who is suggesting a dirty campaign is already being waged, but rejects to step down from seeking the nomination even if Calderón asks him.

Things are likely to heat up in PAN Michoacán.

Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas: No fraud in 2006

In an interview with Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas late 2007, I asked him about the differences between the 1988 and 2006 federal elections. He told me what he just told Milenio yesterday: While there was a fraud in 1988, there was none in 2006.

His comments, made in Guanajuato, followed a visit there by none else than Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who argued, again without a shred of evidence, that PAN in Guanajuato contributed in 2006 300,000 fraudulent votes.

Basilia Ucán Nah set free

Basilia Ucán Nah, in prison since 2007, was set free yesterday, after the Quintana Roo state supreme court ordered here immediate released. The United Nations six weeks ago had requested a review of this case.

For more on this case, which appear an egregious case of injustice, see this post.

How many more cases like this exist in Mexico today?

Oaxaca shut down for second day after teachers protest

Fourteen thousand schools shut down in Oaxaca. 1.3 million students left without school, as their teachers are continuing their actions against the state government of Oaxaca, protests that appear increasingly radical: Yesterday, members of the 73-thousand strong teachers union, SNTE Sección 22, having earlier shut down virtually the entire Oaxaca downtown, upped the ante by blocking down shops and commercial centers, government offices, and even taking a highway tollbooth. 

From what I can tell, Governor Gabino Cué has bent over backwards to appease the teachers, which insist the state has been awarded much more money meant for them, and demand the firing of several government functionaries. 

Yet far from being a case of a downtrodden, overworked, and underpaid union demanding its legitimate rights, there is much more to this than meets the eye: Mexico's federal auditor has detected at least 10,000 aviadores or teachers in name only, who appear on government payrolls yet have never set their foot in any classroom. SNTE 22 demand the regular incorporation of 3,000 people, yet refuse to accept any auditing of these and their credentials. How many of these are now blocking downtown Oaxaca? 

Moreover: What will be the financial cost to Oaxaca, on of the poorest states in Mexico, and what will the future cost of again depriving students of their eduction?

Another shot fired in IFE's internal war: Comptroller General's salary

Things are stormy in Mexico's electoral institute, Instituto Federal Electoral (IFE), these days. IFE is still three councilors short, given the Chamber of Deputies' failure to agree on three new replacements, and various reports have been flying around in misuse of funds, most recently when IFE allegedly paid more than five times the market value for a building.

The latter issue, and other possible irregularities was raised by IFE's comptroller general, Gregorio Guerrero Pozas, who has also earlier denounced IFE functionaries of an attempt in 2009 to raise their salaries.

It goes perhaps without saying that reations with IFE president  Leonardo Valdés have been less than harmonious. And now, another shot fired, yet this time against comptroller Guerrero: His very, very high salary. Indeed, as El Universal reports, he pulls home a hefty 200,985 pesos in monthly salary, or roughly $17,000 per month. Not only that: Guerrero's salary might be illegally high, as it even surpasses that of an IFE executive director.

I am not sure who is right or wrong here - whether Guerrero is on a misguided warpath against IFE, or whether Leonardo Valdés truly has been an incompetent president in administrative matters. Yet as Mexico approaches the 2012 federal election, and with crucial state elections barely two months away, I have a hard time seeing any positive fallout from IFE's internal war for Mexico's democracy.

Will arrest of UBISORT leader quell Oaxaca violence?

Amnesty International praised the recent arrest of UBISORT leader Rufino Juárez Hernández in Oaxaca. UBISORT, or the Unión de Bienestar Social de la Región Triqui, is a paramilitary organization reportedly set up by the PRI in 1994 and protected by the state government, and has been involved in much violence and assassinations, including the high-profile murder of the Finnish activist Jyri Jaakkola.

UBISORT has also faced resistance from Movimiento de Unificación y Lucha Triqui Independiente (MULTI-I), of the Triqui indigenous people, many of which have been victim of UBISORT and of MULT, or Movimiento de Unificación y Lucha Triqui, also affiliated with the PRI.

What the US really thinks of Enrique Peña Nieto

For critics of Mexico State's governor and likely 2012 PRI presidential candidate, the most recent Wikileaks revelations from La Jornada on the subject of Enrique Peña Nieto are pure gold. This is what the U.S. embassy thinks of him [from Spanish, not from the orginal]:

"Godson of ex president Carlos Salinas"

"Cut from the same cloth as the old PRI"

"Made in the same mold of the stale Mexico State PRI, he is not exactly recognized for his transparency when it comes to friends and allies"

And also,

"pays pollster companies to make them give results favorable  to him"

One cable, in an absolutely marvelous reference, calls Mexico State a "Potemkin Village."

Now if only Mexico's voters will reach the same damning conclusions as the U.S. embassy.

First Mexico State gubernatorial debate, available here on youtube

First Mexico State gubernatorial debate, led by Denise Maerker, available in complete form here on youtube

Phrase of the day, following Edomex debate

Attention has earlier been raised toward the ridiculous practice, in Mexcio State now taking to the very extreme, of notarized "promises" made by a candidate ahead of an election.

In the first debate held by the three Mexico State candidates, where reportedly PRD candidate Alejandro Encinas came out on top,  PAN candidate Luis Felipe Bravo Mena had the best characterization of the 6,000 compromisos practice:  "A diarrhea of promises."

Indeed.

See the debate for yourself here.

Why Ley Peña was implemented in Mexico State: One obvious reason "revealed"

With the Mexico State gubernatorial campaign well underway, we can now see clearly exactly why Govenror Enrique Peña Nieto was so eager to change the state's electoral code (what was dubbed Ley Peña) including shortening the campaign to 45 days. Mexico State has 125 municipalities, and visiting all during the campaign is virtuall impossible.

Unless...
Unless you have your own helicopter! 

Eruviel Ávila, PRI's candidate (and, lest we forget, in coalition with the misnomed "Green Party" (PVEM), insists that his use of a private helicopter does not entail going over campaign spending limits.

Yet how much does it costs to have a private helicopter? That information, however, Ávila declined to say.

AMLO on Zedillo as possible new IMF head

AMLO opposes the idea of Ernesto Zedillo as possible new IMF head, arguing he lacks the sufficient moral standing to do so:

"Zedillo, who now wants to be new chairman, is someone without shame; he sold off the National Railways of Mexico, and when he left the presidency, he went to work for them."

Back to the future in PAN: Ernesto Ruffo to head Vázquez Mota campaign

A bit of interesting news for students of the Partido Acción Nacional (PAN): Ernesto Ruffo returns to politics in order to coordinate the campaign of Josefina Vázquez Mota to be the party's presidential candidate.

As you may recall, Ernesto Ruffo Appel was the first-ever governor of a state not belonging to the PRI: In 1989, he won the governorship of Baja California for PAN, but has in recent years been somewhat alienated from the party.

Fun fact 1: He was born in San Diego
Fun fact 2: He supports the legalization of drugs.

PAN's 2012 platform will be a collective effort

A rather interesting twist in PAN's approach to the 2012 election: The presidential platform will apparently be somewhat of a collective effort, as the seven (!) "front runners" will actually together write the party's electoral platform for 2012-2018.

Yesterday it was announced that all seven (whom PRI president Humberto Moreira dismissively referred to as the "Seven Dwarfs") will have different responsibilities, but will apparently coordinate their efforts in this undertaking, which will also include former President Vicente Fox.

And exactly how is this apparent demonstration of a collective effort and party unity going to help raise the profile of any of the contenders?

Mexico State polls: Alejandro Encinas rising

Following the notable display of party unity Monday, where all of PRD's main leaders, including Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas, Marcelo Ebrard, and Andrés Manuel López Obrado, came together to promote his candidacy, Encinas is rising in the polls. Yes, the difference is vast to the PRI candidate, but the mere campaign launch event led to a 1.5-point rise, and Encinas is now at 20.7 percent, while the PRI candidate is slowly dropping.

PRD's gubernatorial candidate in Nayarit threatened by organized crime

Guadalupe Acosta Naranjo, the candidate of  Partido de la Revolución Democrática (PRD) to be the enxt governor of Nayarit, said he has received threats from organized crime, and had therefore accepted offers of a bulletproof car and bodyguards provided by the state government.

On gays: Church at it again, this time Aguascalientes bishop

My oh my. Why can't the Mexican catholic church stop obsessing about the sex life of others, particularly gays? The most recent clergy to offer less than sage input: José María de la Torre, bishop of Aguascalientes:

"the homosexual act is intrinsically contrary to natural law, and therefore is a grave moral disorder or sin..."

Yet as the bishop himself noted, the judgment for such behavior is in any case not up to humans, but to divine law: "Only God knows why they are delinquent or fall on those inclinations."

Only God knows, indeed. And only God presumably knows why Mexican catholic bishops just cannot obsessing about other people's sex life.

Yet let's end on a good note: At least the Archdiocese of Oaxaca offered an apology for the recent homophobic statements of Luis Chávez Botello, another sex-obsessed archbishop.

After worrisome downplaying, INM announces second purge

After the head of Mexico's migration institute INM, Salvador Beltrán del Río, appeared to greatly downplay the grave problems of corruption and abuse in INM as "minimal" and "exceptions," the tone has apparently changed following a meeting with representatives from various of Mexico's government secretariats:

Salvador Beltrán del Río announced a second "purification" of more than 350 agents and administrative personnel presumably engaged in corruption, in addition to the 200 announced earlier.

Eyes are on the INM, and with good reason.

Nayarit polls, gubernatorial election: PRI ahead 49%

The most recent Nayarit polls:

Roberto Sandoval Castañeda, PRI: 49%
Martha Elena García, PAN: 33%
Guadalupe Acosta Naranjo, PRD: 17%
Nayar Mayorquín, PT/Convergencia: 1 %

Direct link to detailed .pdf file on the poll here.

Mexican first lady Margarita Zavala speak out against human trafficking

From my point of view, any initiative that will raise awareness of the nefarious practice of human trafficking is welcome, and Margarita Zavala's recent comments on the subject are no exception.

"It is not only a matter for legislators, but also for the executive and judicial powers. All this violence is a form of slavery, and represents a challenge for the government."

Alejandro Encinas achieved the "impossible" - reunite AMLO and Cárdenas

In his first campaign appearance in Mexico State, PRD-PT-Convergencia gubernatorial candidat Alejandro Encinas already achieved quite a feat: To make Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas and Andrés Manuel López Obrador appear together on stage in his support, and as well Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard and, to add, PRD national president Jesús Zambrano, of the social democratic Nueva Izquierda faction long in confrontation with AMLO.

This truly is quite a feat - I cannot even remember when AMLO and Cárdenas shared a stage, let alone one where the main factions of the party appear together. Now will Encinas manage an upset win in the state as well? At the risk of getting carried away:  That scenario just became just a tad more possible, given this remarkable display of party unity.

The historic photo, from Milenio:

Finally, a purge in Mexico's national institute of migration, INM

Last week, news broke that 7 regional bosses of the Instituto Nacional de Migración (INM) are under investigation for corruption. This is certainly good news, and organizations such as Amnesty International also backed  the process, though it called for a far more thorough investigation.

The measure come very late. The INM has long been commonly regarded as heavily infiltrated by organized crime, and recent horror stories where INM agents handed over captured undocumented migrants to the murderous Zetas are likely only the tip of the iceberg.

The suspended INM bosses: Tamaulipas, Aurelio Gerardo Alamán Bueno; in Veracruz, Humberto Alessandrini; in Tabasco, Luis Alberto Molina Ríos; in Mexico State, Jorge Octavio Armijo, and in San Luis Potosí, Elodia Gutiérrez Estrada. In Oaxaca, Omar Adrián Heredia had already stepped down, and is also under investigation.

Critics of the INM such as PRD Senator Carlos Naverrete, has called for a far more thorough purge, and Salvador Beltrán del Río, head of INM after the disgraced Cecilia Romero stepped down following the Tamaulipas mass grave discovery, has signaled a willingness to carry this out.

Yesterday, Beltrán del Río revealed that from August 2010-April 2011, more than 200 INM employees have been fired, with a penal process open against 40 of them for the graveness of their alleged offense. Special exams, including lie detectors, will be used on 1,500 employees in Tamaulipas, Veracruz and Chiapas, and agents will be periodically rotated in order to avoid collusion with organized crime.

For whatever it's worth, it is a start.

Michoacán burning

For about a month or so, the community of Cherán in Michoacán have fought against talamontes or illegal loggers who not only destroy their forests, but also have murdered those who try to stop them. The comuneros or Cherán went as far as to take matters into their own hands last week, setting up roadblocks, and at the same time calling for intervention from the federal army,

Cherán is an indigenous Purépecha community of around 18,000 inhabitants, yet illegal logging, tied directly to violent organized criminal gangs, affect many other communities as well. Even Joaquín López-Dóriga, writing in Milenio, took note of the events in Cherán, which seems to be one of the very first when a community takes up arms against organized crime.

Here is the story covered in English by the Voice for Human Rights.

It appears that finally, following a month of pleas, the military has now arrived in Cherán 

How to deal with criticism if you're governor of San Luis Potosí

On his way to an event honoring teachers, Governor Fernando Toranzo of San Luis Potosí passed a teacher who told him, "Hola, señor corrupción."

The PRI governor's response? He punched him in the face.

When the teacher tried to fight back, he was blocked by the governor's bodyguards.

My response: Pinche cobarde.

National Teachers Day: Ten thousand march against Elba Esther Gordillo

During the National Teachers Day in Mexico this Sunday, more than 10,000 teachers, most of them from the dissident teacher union Coordinadora Nacional de Trabajadores de la Educación (CNTE), not to be confused with the SNTE, marched in Mexico City demanding that Gordillo resign.

A show of force, but compared with SNTE's strength of at least 1.4 million members, a drop in the ocean.

Of note: Calderón himself appeared with Elba Esther Gordillo, following less than stellar relations between the two, as Gordillo has in essence returned to backing the PRI and in particular Enrique Peña Nieto.

2012 polls for Mexico's presidential election

From El Universal, the results of a recent poll on preferences for 2012. Yes, 18 months ahead, this is essentially quite worthless at this point, but I challenge you to resist the temptation. Nothing shockingly new. 

From my viewpoint, I note that the PRD is on the rise, and that AMLO is essentially tied among the general voting population with Marcelo Ebrard, which quite likely explains AMLO's newfound willingness to decide on the PRD/left coalition candidacy through a national poll and not a party primary.

Direct link for the 12 questions asked here. 

Mexico State gubernatorial campaign begins today

Mexico State's electoral instute, IEEM, approved the registry of all three candidates - PRI, PAN, and PRD - and the campaign to be the state's governor officially started today - or, that is, at midnight yesterday.

Despite a last-minute request from PAN that IIEM again investigate the residency of Encinas in Mexico State, the institute accepted the legality of the documents offered by Encinas, which demonstrated that he still maintained the required residency in the state. While PRI candidate Eruviel Ávila (see Gancho's right-on take on his campaign opening here) has promised he will not question the legality of Encinas' candidacy, should Encinas gain traction in the race, it is nonetheless a very likely action to take.

For now, that threat comes from PAN, which yet again swore it would continue its quest to have Encinas out of the contest, by taking the case to the electoral tribunal.

Hard to believe at times that just weeks ago, the PRD and PAN were contemplating a common candidate.

Will Javier Lozano's calls for prison terms in Sabinas mine disaster extend to himself?

Following the recent mine disaster in Sabinas, Coahuila, where 14 workers died, Javier Lozano Alarcón, Mexico's secretary of labor, recently huffed and puffed and demanded prison terms for whomever found responsible.

Given the persistent lack of thorough labor safety inspections, and the issuing of a record number of concessions with minimum oversight during his tenure as secretary of labor, will the call for arrests eventually also extend to Lozano himself?

A good background article on the Coahuila mining industry here.

Calderón as Churchill? Or "an act of megalomania"?

Calderón's recent comparison of himself with Winston Churchill, and Mexico's fight with the drug cartels with Churchill's fight against the Nazis, predictably drew a lot of fire from the opposition, and rightly so: The comparison was bizarre, to put it mildly. 


Armando Ríos Piter, PRD's group leader in the Chamber of Deputies, put it best: "an act of megalomania"

Cuba pushes for more economic ties with Mexico. Will Calderón visit?

During the 12th interparliamentary meeting between Cuban and Mexican legislators, held this weekend in Mérida, Yucatán, Ricardo Alarcón, head of the Cuban parliament, called for more extensive trade ties between Cuba and Mexico, which are remarkably weak: Reportedly totaling only around 250 million dollars yearly.
This is truly, truly low, given the longtime "special relationship" between the two countries. According to the CIA Factbook, Mexico is not even on the list of major import-export partners - behind, notably, even the U.S!

While historically the ties between Cuba and Mexico were strong, relations drastically cooled during the Fox years, thanks both to President Vicente Fox and his foreign minister Jorge Castañeda.

Alarcón, however, expressed hope that Calderón will visit the island next year - a previously scheduled visit was earlier cancelled. Will Calderón do so, or will he rather leave office without, despite having "normalized" relations a few years back?

(and he would be one of the very first presidents not to have done so -even Fox visited Cuba)

Ebrard and AMLO agree: A national poll will decide the left's 2012 candidacy

Marcelo Ebrard notably said that he and  Andrés Manuel López Obrador has reached an agreement on how the   left's 2012 candidacy for president will be decided: Through a national poll.

This is quite important news: It was earlier well known that AMLO insisted on a party primary/ies, while Ebrard preferred a national poll. Now, AMLO has seemingly come around to Ebrard's position.

Mexico's Jewish community

In connection with the celebration of Israel's declaration of Independence, of May 14 1948, El Universal has an interesting story on Mexico's Jewish community, which today numbers less than 40,000, and is mostly located in the well-heeled Lomas the Chapultepec are of Mexico City, and in Tecamachalco, in Puebla state.

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Governor Rafael Moreno Valle's pledge to investigate "anomalies" ring hollow

One hundred days: Governor of Puebla, Rafael Moreno Valle, who notably ended PRI's 80-plus-years monopoly on holding the state government, said that as the a 90-day(!) process of transferring the government has just come to an end, a "more profound process" of investigating the previous government of  Mario Marín may now commence.

I certainly hope so. Moreno Valle said evidence has already been gathered of many "anomalies" during the disastrous misrule of the scoundrel Mario Marín's government, and he reiterated his campaign pledge to castigate those who are found to have abused power. Mario Marín is the obvious candidate here, and if Moreno Valle is truly serious, he should take on Marín directly.

Yet one hundred days have already passed, which makes this reiteration sound hollow. I hope I am wrong here.

Marcelo Ebrard, ever more active on the unofficial campaign trail

Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard has made no secret that the is going for the nomination of Mexico's left parties for 2012, and is now demonstrating it through what is essentially unofficial campaigning in Mexico's interior.

While AMLO is years ahead in terms of promoting his candidacy through barnstorming tours across the country, Ebrard is showing increased protagonism: This weekend he went to Oaxaca, and he will then be off to the states of Nayarit and Mexico State to promote the left's gubernatorial candidates there, respectively Guadalupe Acosta Naranjo and Alejandro Encinas.

Enrique Peña Nieto, if elected president, will not make a pact with the drug gangs

Speaking in the United States Capital, Governor Enrique Peña Nieto said he will not make any pact with the drug gangs should he elected president.

More notable still than this rather obvious declaration was his claim that there is a "black campaign" orchestrated against the PRI in the United States and elsewhere in the exterior, which appears both a general response to very valid critiques of the PRI governments in the 1980s and 1990s, where organized crime was essentially left alone, as well as to Felipe Calderón's warnings against the return of the PRI to the Mexican presidency.

Even former President Carlos Salinas, in a presentation of his book in Spain, felt compelled to declare that his government did fight organized crime.

PRI, now playing the victim.

AMLO, if elected president, will not make a pact with the drug gangs

Andrés Manuel López Obrador, in a mass meeting of 4,000 supporters held in downtown Aguascalientes, said explicitly that he would not make a pact with the drug gangs should he be elected president.

Yet again he offered very little in terms of presenting an actual alternative to Calderón's current strategy:

"I will not make truce with the drug traffickers, we must find other strategies, to address the causes, to create employment, to provide for the young. Calderón stupidly hit the nest with a club without knowing what he was going to find."

Just what Oaxaca needs: Yet another homophobic archbishop

José Luis Chávez Botello, archbishop of Oaxaca, was kind enough to provide us with his profound insights into the issue of homosexuality in his Sunday homily: "If a man and a woman are clean and honest, they would never become gay and lesbian."

EZLN reappear in public after five years of silence

The Zapatistas of Chiapas, Ejército Zapatista de Liberación Nacional (EZLN), made the first public appearance outside their home community in almost five years. According to one estimate, 15,000 supporters gathered Saturday in San Cristóba to protest the Calderón governments offensive against the drug cartels.

The meeting was part of a general "march for peace" held in a range of cities across Mexico, a mobilization that for the EZLN represent its first rally since the confusing and unproductive "Other Campaign" of Marcos and the EZLN in 2006, when the essential message from the Zapatistas was a "plague on all your houses," where Marcos called on citizens not to vote, either for the PRD or any other party, a decision that may have cost the left its victory in 2006, in favor of the conservative PAN.

Yet then as now it remains unclear what the EZLN's agenda is, particularly beyond Chiapas state.

AMLO accepts Ebrard's proposal on candidate debates and time frames

Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) accepted the proposal by Marcelo Ebrard to hold two debates in October, and then decide in Novemeber who should be the left's candidate in 2012. AMLO also reiterated that should Ebrard come out on top, he will back him.

One clear issue remains to be settled: While Ebrard wants a national poll to be held to determine who has the most support among the electorate, AMLO wants a primary open not only to PRD but to his Movimiento de Regeneración Nacional, or Morena movement. Herein, in this "detail," the devil lies.

Baja California: 22 years in prison for miscarriage, yet finally released

In Baja California, a woman was in 2008 sentenced to 22 years in prison for infanticide, or the killing of her baby, despite all evidence indicating that she suffered a miscarriage.

Now, after suffering three years in prison, it was finally announced by the state supreme court that she should be let go, following massive pressure from her legal representatives and civil organizations: No evidence whatsoever existed that she had killed her baby, yet the poor woman, now 22, had to languish for three years.

How many more share a similar fate in Mexico's prisons, in particular the states run by the PAN and PRI?

PRD campaign in Mexico State: Remarkable unity

In a remarkable display of unity, PRD leader in Mexico State, Luis Sánchez Jiménez, appeared together with the left coalition candidate Alejandro Encinas for the start of the latter's campaign.

Remarkable, because Sánchez Jiménez, who was the vice president of the chamber of deputies and a man I had the pleasure of interviewing on many occasions, was also a big proponent of a PRD-PAN alliance in the state, and complained bitterly of the campaign of Andrés Manuel López Obrador to scuttle said alliance, which he did succeed in doing.

Luis Sánchez was, to boot, appointed officially as Encinas' campaign coordinator, though it remains to be seen if this will merely be de jure rather than de facto - something akin to Jesús Ortega's position as the nominal head of AMLO's 2006 campaign.

Yet regardless, in Sánchez' words: "I am an institutional man and I think institutions is something that Mexican politics urgently needs."

¡Órale! If only the PRD had more people like Sánchez. You lose, but then you rally behind your party candidate regardless.

Also of note: El Universal reports that even Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas will appear with Encinas. While I regard a photo of AMLO-Encinas-Cárdenas a remote possibility, it would be of immense importance for the party, which still stands a chance, however small, of winning the state.

Ebrard wants PRD to decide on candidacy the coming November

Marcelo Ebrard, in a speech held in honor of the 22nd anniversary of the founding of the Partido de la Revolución Democrática (PRD), said he wanted the party to decide who should be its 2012 candidate - himself or 2006 candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) - by the coming November.

Ebrard also suggested that two debates be held between him and AMLO in October. Then, the candidacy will be decided by some kind of poll or open primary.

AMLO, for his part, has earlier agreed to the PRD deciding on the candidacy by late 2012.
Yet he notably did not attend the PRD's anniversary celebration, and has no direct excuse for not doing so, given that the remaining PRD-PAN alliances in Nayarit, Coahuila and Hidalgo look increasingly defunct.

Happy Cinco de Mayo = Happy Birthday, PRD

Today is Cinco de Mayo, which is also the birthday of the PRD: The party was officially established on May 5, 1989, nearly a year after the 1988 electoral fraud that might or might not have deprived Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas of the Mexican presidency.

As El Universal reports, the party is indeed undergoing a process of "repositioning," or the separation of waters between its main poles, which are now aligned essentially around either Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) or Marcelo Ebrard. Unless we will actually see the promise being kept - that either will step down in favor of the other who is ahead in the polls - it is hard to imagine that the left will arrive at the 2012 election united.

As it were, I'll be in El Paso, TX for the day - and I will cheer both the Mexican army's victory over  the French in Puebla on May 5, 1862, but also the birth of Mexico's only real leftwing party, the Partido de la Revolución Democrática. Happy birthday, PRD.

Manuel Espino's expulsion from PAN final

Manuel Espino, PAN member since 1978, secretary general 2002-2005, and party president 2005-2007, was finally officially expelled from the party by the PAN' somewhat Orwellian-named Commission of Order, after a long and drawn-out process.

Espino says he will continue to fight it, taking it to the TEPJF, or Mexico's federal electoral tribunal.
While there were admittedly some instances were Espino did criticize some PAN candidates, which from what I recall was one of the reasons for his expulsion, it is hard not to see this as a personal crusade from Calderón, whose political strategies, particularly against the narcos, Espino has criticized.

And lest we forget: In April 2006, Espino referred to the PAN's presidential candidate as "the little bald guy with glasses." Now it's personal!

AMLO taking it to the next level: Accuses government of narco collusion

AMLO has said very little on the subject of the Mexican government's fight with the drug cartels, except for perhaps calling it "stupid." Yet in speech in Cuernavaca yesterday, he certainly used the topic to ramp up his discourse more than a few notches:

He accused the federal government, as well as state governments, of "colluding with organized crime."
As far as I can tell, this is a first.

Mexico no longer has a free press, according to Freedom House

Freedom House's Freedom of the Press Report 2011, available here and released this morning, notably lists Mexico as "Partly Free" due to the deteriorating conditions for its journalists.

While the narcos will of course share the blunt of the blame for this, sadly they're not the only actor threatening journalists:

Yesterday, during the May 1 celebration, members of the Sindicato Mexicano de Electricistas (SME) again attacked journalists, beating up at least five for trying to take photographs of what appeared to be a collapsing stage.

Nayarit ironies

After increasing reports that the PAN-PRD alliance in Nayarit is coming to an end, for the time being, a time-out: The parties agreed to a new poll to determine the coalition's candidate.

It is worth nothing the irony here: PAN reportedly backed out when it failed to have PRD legislator Martha Elena García made its official candidate, in favor of also PRD legislator Guadalupe Acosta Naranjo: PAN clearly wants to go with the wife of the former governor (also with a PAN past) rather than Acosta Naranjo, a man who has never been a member of PRI or PAN, but is a founding member of the PRD with a long trajectory on the left before that.

But guess who AMLO's incondicionales want to be the candidate? Martha Elena García, the one favored by PAN, who in the end might be the party's candidate! The IDN faction, among others, who is led by the Bejarano/Padierna couple, were strong backers of García, and adamantly opposes Acosta. So much for their anti-PAN rhetoric. Martha Elena García, despite elected as a PRD legislator, is to boo not even a member of the PRD.

AMLO, to clarify, came out to throw plague on both houses, instead backing a PT-Convergencia candidate, Nayar Mayorquín, who has absolutely no chance of being elected - again showing that he could care less if the PRI will come out on top, as long as his opponents within the party don't come out on top.

Here's a useful interview with Guadalupe Acosta Naranjo.

The effects of Ley Peña: The left can't make its platform public

One tangible effect of the highly regressive electoral legislation steamrolled through the Mexico State legislature and nicknamed Ley Peña or (Governor Enrique) Peña Nieto's law:

Given that the legislation, among other things, cut drastically short the time allowed for campaigning, the PRD-PT-Convergencia coalition behind the candidacy of Alejandro Encinas, which Friday presented its campaign platform to the Mexico State electoral institute, desisted from making the platform public, out of fear of breaking the new legislation.

Encinas:

"These reforms are unfavorable not only to debate, political discussion, and the exercise of citizen rights, but also inhibit discussion and hence political participation. The intent of these reforms is to prevent the exercise of democratic participation of citizens with political parties."

Hard to disagree here.

Minor electoral reform passed in Senate

The Mexican Senate passed very watered-out, yet still notable legislation regulating Mexican elections: While the current electoral code, elevated to constitutional rank a few years back, prohibits the intervention of public officials in electoral processes (remember Fox in 2006?), there was no actual penalty for doing so - as witnessed when Calderón was deemed to have done so in 2009. The new legislation institutes economic sanctions - fines worth from ten thousand to a hundred thousand days of minimum salary.
(IFE certainly backs the reform, which would have to be passed before July in the Chamber for it to function for 2012)

Yet given that the Chamber just took a far-from-well-deserved summer break, the reform will very likely remain in the freezer for the time being.

Political Reform Dead on Arrival - or barely on life support

While it was not exactly a shocker that the Chamber of Deputies would end the current legislative session without even touching the Political Reform  recently approved in the Senate, it was all the more disappointing. This essentially ensures that even if passed at a later date - the chamber will have its four-month summer break - it will be too late for it to be implemented in time for the 2012 election.

PAN points the finger, and rightly so it appears, at Enrique Peña Nieto, whom it accuses of having blocked the reform, and demands a new extraordinary session now that the current official session is over. It's hard to believe that coming to pass.

It is a sad episode that reflects more broadly on what has been a remarkably unproductive legislative session, or indeed legislature in general. Milenio revealed recently that Calderón has achieved an even lower approval rate of his legislative initiatives than Fox - 66 percent vs. 75 percent. From Dec. 2000-April 2005, 105/139 of Fox' proposals were approved; from Dec. 2006-today, 72 out of 109. A direct comparison is admittedly tricky as it says nothing of the actual content or magnitude of the legislation passed, but it is nonetheless an interesting statistic - especially if we keep in mind that Calderón at first enjoyed PAN majorities in both houses.