PRD reacts to AMLO's "leave of absence"; AMLO would "step aside" for Ebrard

PRD rejected AMLO's request from a "leave of absence" - so that he can again campaign for other parties to the detriment of PRD - and quite logically so, as this mechanism simply doesn't exist in the party statutes. The party openly lamented AMLO's decision and asked that he reconsider, as many leading members also criticized the decision. National deputy Jesús Zambrano put it most starkly:

"If he doesn't want to serve in the party, then say so clearly, and don't go around with ambiguities... It seems like the desire of Andrés Manuel is that the PRD is under his command, or otherwise he won't help the party. Either he has a party at his liking, or he won't be in the PRD... why don't he say it clearly." 

(In the PRD, notably, its national political commission also voted in favor, 9 to 3, of having the poll in Mexico State over the possible PAN-PRD alliance, which AMLO adamantly opposes).

Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas, PRD's founder and once-political godfather of AMLO, also opposed the move.
Notably, though, AMLO did not succeed in his plan to have Alejandro Encinas do the same thing; Encinas' respect for the party is supremely higher than that of AMLO. While I doubt that an imminent AMLO-Encinas break is imminent, this is nonetheless highly significant: Should Encinas leave as well, the party would receive a truly tremendous blow.

Finally, Marcelo Ebrard also lamented AMLO's move, as it clearly will damage the party, and emphasized the importance of a single 2012 presidential candidacy for the left. In an interview, AMLO did declare, though, that if Ebrard will become the PRD's candidate, he would not only accept it, but to campaign for him.

I find that very, very hard to believe.

On Calderón's proposed tax breaks for education

Last week, president Felipe Calderón issued a presidential decree where a family can deduct from their taxes the cost of tuition in private schools, from the pre-school up until the pre-college preparatory school level.

For those who can afford to send their children to private schools, it's clearly a gain, and this will be popular with many sectors of the middle class. Yet it will also cost around 1.1-1.3 billion pesos in lost tax revenue, and as such is clearly a subsidy for the the rich on the expense of the poor - as simple as that.

Marcel Ebrard soon responded that rather than this tax break, the government should create a national program of scholarships for students of low means in secondary and pre-college levels - essentially implementing on a national programs the highly popular programs of Mexico City. If the goal is to reduce income differences and give the poor a push to get out of poverty - rather than, say, winning the middle class for the 2012 election (PRD Senator Carlos Navarrete denounced it as electioneering, and rightly so) - Ebrard's proposal makes much more sense.

Now, UNAM rector José Narro Robles also came out against the decree, pointing out how much these 1.3 billion pesos could have helped out in terms of improving public access to education on the university level for Mexico's poor.

According to the Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas (IMEF), those likely to benefit are families with incomes around 50,000-100,000 pesos per month - hardly those with the most pressing needs in Mexico.

Yet given the outrageous comments from Ernesto Cordero yesterday, where he argued that one could well live on 6,000 pesos and still afford a house and a car in Mexico, one might seriously question how connected to reality some PAN policy makers really are.

PT in Mexico City signs and accord and breaks it days later; Ricardo Monreal approves

Recently, the PRD, the PT, and Convergencia agreed on a common candidate for mayor of Mexico City, rejecting both running with separate candidates, as well as an alliance with PAN.

How little it took for the "workers party" - a gross misnomer for this quintessentially opportunistic outfit once founded by Salinas in the early 90s - to break the deal. The PT a few days ago presented its own candidate for mayor, Ricardo Monreal Ávila. It lead to a bit of internal turmoil as well, as some petistas noted that the postulation of Monreal indeed broke their fresh promise.

Monreal, in any regard, said he appreciated the gesture. He is, notably, a former governor of Zacatecas, who was a PRI member until 1999, then joined the PRD, and then ditched the party for the PT.

Clearly there is precedent for this: Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas, to be sure, was once governor of Michoacán, and then became Mexico City mayor in 1997. Yet to put it bluntly: Monreal, you are no Cárdenas.

Four-and-a-half billion pesos: PRI left massive debt in state of Sinaloa

Yet another PRI governor leaves his state with a crushing debt:

Jesús Aguilar Padilla was the PRI governor of Sinaloa from 2005-2010; indeed, until position coalition candidate Mario López Valdez (Malova) won the Sinaloa gubernatorial election last summer, the state  had never switched hands from PRI.

Malova's administration now reveals that Aguilar Padilla left the state with debts of more than 4.5 billion pesos, in addition to a budget deficit of half a billion pesos.

The debts puts the state's finance in danger of collapse, according to Armado Villarreal Ibarra, secretary of state finances.

Aguirre promises 60% of positions for PRD, and will join the party

Ángel Aguirre Rivero, governor-elect of Guerrero, appeared at the national council meeting of PRD this weekend, where he even declared he would join the party as a member - in contrast to outgoing Governor Zeferino Torreblanca, a businessman who ran as a PRD candidate yet neither joined the party or in the end governed according to its principles. 

As for Aguirre, his statements seemed to go against those who merely dismissed his victory as one for the PRI and not the PRD, given Aguirre´s admittedly very recent membership in the party. Like scores of politicians before him, he ditched the party when it failed to nominate him for its gubernatorial candidate. 

Yet Aguirre declared that 60 percent of the government positions would go to the PRD, including the crucial portfolios of Attorney General; secretary of health; and secretary of social development. 

More important still, he made it emphatically clear that he will back the PRD in 2012 (despite his earlier friendship with Enrique Peña Nieto), whoever will win the party´s nomination. 

Martha Dalia Gastélum : Marcelo Ebrard's candidate for the PRD presidency

Martha Dalia Gastélum declared her interest in the presidency of the PRD this weekend. This would not be a bad for the party, and would be quite logical in several ways: She is identified today with the relatively new faction Izquierda Renovadora en Movimiento, which responds to Marcelo Ebrard, and as such is not tied directly to either the AMLO camp or the Ortega camp.

Gastélum was earlier part of the social-democratic faction Foro Nuevo Sol, but left/was expelled from FNS when she did not support the candidacy of Alejandro Encinas to be president of the PRD, back in March 2008. On a personal note, I also had the chance to have a long interview with her around that time for a couple of hours, and she struck me as a most reasonable person, highly analytical, and very balanced.

 Expect AMLO's people to oppose her strongly, though - while not belonging to Ortega's group, she did run with him in 2008 as candidate for secretary general. And more important: If Ebrard can have her elected PRD president, it will be a big boost for his quest to be the PRD's 2012 candidate.

AMLO leaves the PRD

After years of threats and campaigning for other parties, finally AMLO took the logical step of leaving the PRD. The reason? The fact that his supporters lost the vote in the PRD's national council this weekend, when the party voted in favor of holding a referendum to ask its members whether to go in alliance with the PAN in Mexico State, or not.

Nor this time is the rupture - or rapture - complete, however. AMLO had long threatened to pedir licencia, or ask for a "leave of absence," disregarding, to be sure, that no such mechanism exist within the PRD or any other party: Either you are a member of the party, or you are not.

Be that as it may: The reason for AMLO's departure speaks volumes. You lose the vote, and you leave. And not only this: You lose a vote on whether to hold a vote among party members and solicit their opinions - AMLO had opposed holding such a referendum.

Mas claro que el agua no puede ser.

AMLO made the announcement in a meeting in Texcoco, where he was campaigning for Alejandro Encinas. Yet the decision appears to have caught the latter somewhat unawares, as Encinas seemed unsure of how to respond:

"A resolution such as the one that is raised before me goes far beyond the realm of personal decisions, as it involves a decision to break with the PRD and move toward a scenario of two candidates and two different projects in 2012."

Indeed it does. For the sake of PRD and the left, one can only hope that Encinas, upon this realization, will choose not to help this worst-case scenario come true.