On Seguro Popular

Not too much of a news story per se - Salomón Chertorivski, head of CNPSS, dismisses former director of Social Security Santiago Levy's claim that Seguro Popular promotes the informal economy - but it is worth noting that  Seguro Social, a program to offer healthcare for the many Mexicans outside of the formal economy, has now reached 36 million, and may reach more than 50 by early 2011.


A bit of background in a recent article in Americas Quarterly:

In the early 1990s, a calculation of national health accounts by the Fundación Mexicana para la Salud revealed that more than half of total Mexican health care expenditure was individual, out-of-pocket payments. Families and individuals were paying from their own incomes or savings for health care procedures, including emergency care. In other words, half of the population lacked health insurance.

The realization that households—the poor, in particular—had been paying catastrophic, out-of-pocket sums changed public perceptions and provoked public discussion of the need to expand public health coverage. Policymakers suddenly began to look at how financial issues affected the provision of health care and levels of poverty among Mexican households. 

It has also paid electoral dividends. According to a recent scholarly treatise of the 2006 campaign, by Alberto Diaz-Cayeros et al,  the effects, and as such popularity, of Seguro Popular was one of the major factors why many poor voters went for PAN rather than the PRD in that year's presidential election. 


First launched by President Vicente Fox, Seguro Popular may thus remain as one of the major social achievements of the two PAN administrations. 

Ebrard-AMLO game of chess continues

Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard, in reiterating the agreement with AMLO (and other potential candidates) that the left's candidate will be decided based on whoever is ahead of the polls, now declared that the poll should not just be open to members of the parties in question (PRD, PT, Convergencia), but to any citizen. Here, AMLO's "Legitimate Government" and its affiliated masses, most of whom appear not to belong to any party, would appear to give AMLO an advantage, but now clearly Ebrard also thinks he might be able to mobilize non-party supporters behind his candidacy. 
What will be AMLO´s next move?

Zacatecas damage assessment: PRD´s electoral disaster on July 4th

PRD certainly had a rather brutal defeat in Zacatecas, going from 46.40 percent to 24.6 percent - a pretty stunning drop.

Why did this happen, and what can the PRD learn from this?
The most important lesson, as the PRD seems to acknowledge, is that PRI-style dedazos will backfire drastically. The PRD's candidate was seen as an imposition by Governor Amalia Garcia, whose lackluster administration has been a deep disappointment, in particularly for those who saw her as a possible candidate for the presidency.

(We´ll talk about the damage done by former priísta, former perredista, and now ardent petista, Senator Ricardo Monreal later).

Yet also it shows the poor party loyalty from many of the nominal perredistas who bailed ship and actually supported the PRI candidate (himself a former perredista!), such as Raymundo Càrdenas.
It is understandable that there will be disaffection among the party base and elite under such circumstances. But it nonetheless illustrates the amazing opportunism among even long-time PRD cadres, who jump ship to join their old archenemy PRI.
What is to be done?

So much for internal pacts of piece: Padierna wants Ortega out.

Dolores Padierna, nominal head of the PRD corriente Izquierda Democrática Nacional, and wife of the disgraced money-stuffer René Bejarano, for the umpteenth time demands Ortega´s resignation, despite that the PRD, under his lead, has not only withstood excessive friendly fire from AMLO, who campaigned against the PRD in 2009 (preceded by months-long debacle where losing candidate Alejandro Encinas refused to accept Ortega's victory), but managed to do what appeared impossible, overthrowing the 8-decades old authoritarian state governments of Oaxaca, Puebla, and Sinaloa. 


But now that her corriente apparently won quite a few municipalities and local deputies, she now clamors again for Ortega's head, arguing that her faction is now the strongest within the PRD. 


Miguel Borbosa, national coordinator of Nueva Iqzuierda, responded in kind: If you don't shut up, we will use our 2/3 majority in the PRD national council to kick you off the PRD's National Political Commission (not to be confused with the national secretariat, formerly known as the CEN).


More from La Jornada here. 


To be continued...

On AMLO jumping the gun

Mexico State Governor Enrique Peña Nieto argues AMLO is "overwhelmed" and that he is ahead of himself in terms of declaring his candidacy.  


The hipocricy slaps you in the face, given Peña Nieto's excessive promotion of himself, spending tens of millions of public money to tote his "achievements" as a governor, ahead of his official declaration as a candidate, sure as hell to come next year. 

Hector Tejonar, for example, has a very critical commentary in Milenio that directly deals with this subject, acusing the IFE on going soft on Peña Nieto´s self promotion.
It seems to me the criticism is excessive - the phenomenon of self promotion disguised a news is more of a loophole, and IFE doesn´t make the rules, only uphold them - but it adds fuel to the fire to AMLO, who defends his destape with the argument that three months of precampaigning is not enough given Peña Nieto´s media promotion. 
(AMLO also says he will seek the PRD candidacy "when the moment comes," and that it doesn´t worry  him that the PRD leadership doesn´t support him, as he has the support of the party masses. 


Again, it´s important to step back and assess AMLO's modus operandi:
- The law on precampaigning I realize is only three months. Yet because Peña Nieto is using public funds to promote himself, I have no other choice, and will willingly brake the law. 
- And, as noted earlier, while I promised to stick to the pact with PRD/PT/Convergencia, I just broke that too because otherwise Peña Nieto would have too much of an advantage 


What is one to make of this reasoning? Is this is a man one should trust the presidency with?

Another approach might be to launch a formal and extensive complaint to IFE, and onward to TEPJF, regarding Peña Nieto´s transgressions. But what does AMLO do? The other guy is breaking the law, so why the hell should I not. And this is the man who spoke of a moral reawakening, or something of that sorts, on Sunday at the Zócalo?

PAN Senator Gustavo Madero  says AMLO´s candidacy proclamation is "straining" the political environment. PRD Vice Coordinator Guadalupe Actosta Naranjo notes that should decide once and for all whether he will actually respect the outcome of the polls (as a means of choosing the left presidential candidate) or not. I couldn't agree more - but I really wonder if the highly astute Acosta Naranjo actually thinks there is any doubt that AMLO will break it, should he not be the frontrunner. 

AMLO as Tolstoy

An acerbic yet notable commentary on AMLO's new focus on "moral values" in order to fight the evils plaguing Mexico today. It is also quite funny. By renaissance writer-scholar Guillermo Sheridan.

Much ado about AMLO - and Ebrard

Not surprisingly, given AMLO's destape as presidential candidate this past Sunday, party colleagues, rivals etc  rush to offer their take on the situation. 
It's almost a year to the date since Ebrard admitted he was interested in the presidency.
Here's a run-down from El Universal on his strategy so far, in all essence one of "good governance" and highly publicized public works, as well as the expansion of social programs and creation of new ones.  


(His Prepa Si, for instance, appears an excellent initiative designed to help teenagers graduate with a bachillerato, or high school diploma.) 


As the article alludes to, being in power has both its advantages and disadvantages. Clearly Ebrard can use the programs to promote (in)directly his candidacy, but he cannot really promote, as does AMLO, a governmental project akin to AMLO's perennially vague "alternative project for the nation."


Ebrard's campaigning in favor of the July 4 alliances was also notable, especially when contrasted with AMLO's rejection of them. 


The honorable Senator Carlos Navarrete - one of the PRD's best assets - notes that AMLO is just"a pre candidate like the others," who will need to submit to the agreements negotiated with PRD/PT/Convergencia regarding who will be the left's candidate. I personally find it hard to believe that Navarrete truly thinks AMLO will respect any agreement whatsover. 


Alberto Anaya, PT leader, repeated obsequiously that he can have the PT party candidacy anytime (Read: "Please, please use us as we want to keep our party registry), claiming, in an exercise of utter sophistry, that this would still not breach AMLO's agreement. I mean, honestly, what is one to make of this sentence: "the PT already decided; nonetheless we will await the results of the poll"?


Luis Walton, leader of Convergencia - which competes with PT for the title of most-opportunist party in Mexico on the "left" - was a tad more cautious, noting that Ebrard was also in the running.  Dolores Padierna.... well, don't really care what she or IDN thinks. They will turn the cape to the wind no matter what - if Ebrard looks set to get the nomination, they will unceremoniously dump AMLO despite their prostrations of allegiance. 


Finally, as noted in an earlier post, AMLO's announcement would also likely lead to complains that he is breaching the new electoral rules on "pre-campaigning." Now, PAN has complained to the IFE about this issue.