Gubernatorial elections in 2012

It's not only about electing Mexico's next president for six years on July 1, 2012: In addition, there are gubernatorial elections in the following states:

* Jalisco (PAN)
* Guanajuato (PAN)
* Morelos (PAN)
* Chiapas (PRD coalition)
* Tabasco (PRI)
* Yucatán (PRI)

And, of course, mayor of Mexico City - as close to a governor as one can get, until the Federal District gets its own constitution.

Here's a great rundown of the various hopefuls for the offices from the respective parties.

Come on baby, do the Morena

AMLO's campaign tune, so to speak: "Morena." It's heard everywhere on the campaign trail, and it's a quite catchy cumbia-esque ditty, with a semi-professional video production - and it gets, I'd venture to say, its points across. And yes, there is a beautiful morena in the video, with quite a low-cut dress (here's some background on the song from El Universal).

Michoacán mayors take office - state goes from yellow to red

Hundred-and-eleven out of 113 municipalities changed hands in Michoacán this weekend. In essence, a big shift from yellow to red - from PRD to PRI. In the capital Morelia, an interim mayor took office given the recent cancellation of that race; in Cherán, the local population refused to hold elections.

Here is the graphic in pdf form on what party controls what municipality.

I happened to be at a ceremony for a PAN mayor where also Josefina Vázquez Mota was present. Her body guards carried the biggest assault rifles I have ever seen in use outside of a Hollywood blockbuster.

Pope Benny 16 to Mexico in March

The catholic church confirms it: Pope Benedict 16 will visit Mexico over three days this year, March 23-25. He  will not come to Mexico City - due to its location (thin air, pollution), but rather Guanajuato. Or perhaps, out of desire to avoid meeting with mayor Marcelo Ebrard, whom major figures in the church a while ago threatened to excommunicate from the catholic church due to the legalization of gay unions and abortion in the city.

He will also meet with President Calderón - expect the governing PAN to subtly or not so subtly use the visit for all its worth ahead of the 2012 election.

Then, he's off to Cuba. That could get far more interesting from a political point of view: Will he follow the lead of Pope John Paul II to condemn the blockade, and also call for democracy?

Guerrero: Gas station employee dies after students burned down station

There were many tragic stories from Guerrero recently, and what deservedly got the most attention was the gunning down of two students.

There is another side to this story, though, which only makes it more intrinsically tragic: It seems by now beyond doubt that the protesting students deliberately torched a PEMEX gas station. The employee got badly burnt trying to put out the flames to avoid a full explosion.

Yet due to his burns, he died just days ago in a Guerrero hospital.

The shooting deaths of the students was roundly and justifiably condemned. Yet we have heard very little on the death of this innocent worker. Just as one asks for the heads of the Guerrero police who shot the students, will any of the thugs responsible for this murder ever be held accountable?

New graphic from SIEDO on drug gang control of Mexico

According to SIEDO, Mexico's special organized crime unit, it's mainly a battle of the Sinaloa cartel and the Zetas. Despite blows particularly against the latter, the Zetas are said to lead in drugs and human trafficking, extortion, and fuel theft (Sinaloa has repeatedly gone to quite some lengths to emphasize it only does drugs). Here's SIEDO's latest graphic on the "territorial control" of the drug gangs:

From Milenio

AMLO's red herring

AMLO proclaims that in 2012, his electoral movement will have more people covering ballot boxes than ever before, in order to avoid a fraud and an outcome as in 2006, "when they falsified the things."

I find this quite a red herring, for several reasons., Most obvious, five and a half years later, there is NO EVIDENCE AT ALL of a widespread and systematic fraud at the ballot boxes in 2006. But there's more:

1) It assumes that as long as AMLO's coalition doesn't have any representative at the ballot box, this will automatically lead to a fraud, meaning, not only would all the other party representatives be in on the fraud, but also the local electoral representatives responsible for the ballot station and the citizen representatives chosen by double-blind ballot to oversee the election. This is an enormous leap of (lack of) faith, especially as there is no evidence that this really has happened on anything close to a wide and systematic scale.

2) In 2006, AMLO insisted on using his "Citizen Networks" as ballot box observers, in many places even displacing the PRD, yet on election day many didn't show up. If there truly was fraud due to a lack of AMLO representatives, he is to blame himself for this. When will we hear any self criticism for this?

3) If there truly was fraud in 2006 at the ballot boxes - that e.g. the local representatives colluded with the other parties to remove ballots from the boxes, etc - how could this ever be proven? That is, if this is how the supposed fraud of 2006 was carried out, no recount would ever make the slightest difference.

For sure: It is very important that AMLO's coalition does manage to have representatives, as they are allowed to by law, at every station. But in order to avoid the errors of 2006 in 2012, more than a bit of self criticism is here in order.