AMLO's "yes, but.." to candidacy poll: Complete nonsense

AMLO seemingly agreed to a poll that would decide whether he or Marcelo Ebrard will be the left's 2012 presidential candidate, but with a major catch: The poll can not include any PRI or PAN sympathizers.

Having an open poll would of course demonstrate which candidate can move beyond the party base to actually reach into other voting groups, whether belonging to other parties or not. But AMLO doesn't want this - and heavens knows how he wants to make a poll that presorts the actual respondents.

In my opinion: This is just pure trickery, as AMLO will not accept any result where he does not come out on top-

PRD's party membership: 1.8 million members

PRD handed over to IFE its updated padrón or party membership rolls, which is essentially completely new: The party ditched its old membership base and initiated in May 2010 a new campaign where members had to reaffirm their membership. The old base was 7 million strong, but contained many errors.

The PRD's membership now stands at 1,795,851 million members - of which nearly 1.2 million are new.

Organización Política Nacional de los Trabajadores: New umbrella labor federation

The Organización Política Nacional de los Trabajadores (OPNT) is a new loosely-knit labor federation, of sorts, headed by the Mexican electricians union SME. It will hold its constitutive assembly Aug. 27-28, and will seemingly incorporate 40 different organizations, though it appears it will be built around the SME.

The new organization does not have yet a head, and it is not clear whom it will support electorally in 2012, though PAN is already excluded. Should Martin Esparza of SME become its leader, on can expect much horsetrading with the PRI and PRD.

AMLO demands from PRD candidacies and 1/3 of Mexico's electoral districts

Recently, the PRD asked its former presidential candidateAndrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) to appear in a few "spots" or campaign ads for the party, together with party founder Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas and Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard, in a display of "unity." AMLO then responded that he would do so only if the PRD would give him a big chunk of its government-allotted airtime (radio and TV) for him to use for his own electoral movement, Movimiento de Regeneración Nacional (MORENA).

Then, just days after appearing in a front-page interview in La Jornada again hurling accusations of treason against the PRD, AMLO dropped another bomb: In order for MORENA to join the PRD in a coalition in 2012, he demands that the party give his movement complete control of the electoral organization in 100 out of Mexico's 300 districts, the control of 11 state party branches, as well as an unknown number of candidacies.

As might be expected, given that AMLO in practice is asking the PRD, a 22-year old party, to simply hand over the control to a recently created and unknown entity, the party isn't exactly running to accept the proposal. Party president Jesús Zambrano was quite diplomatic:

it is very difficult that one just hand over complete districts with complete structures. The PRD exists in the 300 constituencies. It is the biggest party of the Mexican left. A party is not built overnight and it is hard to think that the PRD will give MORENA a district and that its complete district representation just disappear. 

This is really like watching a slow-motion car crash, repeated as farce: It is exactly what happened in 2006, when AMLO's wholly unreliable Redes Ciudadanas took over control of voting station representation from the PRD in many districts, and did an extremely poor job at it.

AMLO to U.S. in October

AMLO is coming to the United States, apparently on Oct. 8 (duration of visit unknown), where he will visit what appears to be Chicago, DC, New York, and somewhere in Massachusetts.

Despite promising large outdoor rallies, this is not a campaign event, mind you - that would be illegal at this state, but simply about him presenting his Proyecto Alternativo de Nación. 

Is Enrique Peña Nieto moving from Salinas to Zedillo?

Much has been written of the close relations between likely PRI presidential contender Enrique Peña Nieto and former president Carlos Salinas de Gortari. A quite interesting investigation in two parts (here and here) by Jenaro Villamil offers much circumstantial evidence that Peña Nieto is actually moving away from the Salinas camp to that of former president Ernesto Zedillo, where a lot of advisers, political connections, businessmen etc connected to the last PRI president (94-2000) have seemingly established ever closer relations with the outgoing governor, to the detriment of people connected to the Salinas group.

Has Peña Nieto finally realized how potentially toxic his relations with the discredited former president may be in a general election? Or, that Zedillo's policies and programs are closer to his heart than those of Salinas?

Unable to hold election, PRI appoints party head in Mexico City

Given that its attempt at an internal election was deemed invalid by the Federal district electoral court, the PRI announced it would appoint a delegate to head the Mexico City branch of the party, without a president for years, and dominated by Cuauhtémoc Gutiérrez de la Torre, the "King of Garbage" in Mexico City.

This could endanger PRI´s ability to present its own candidate for Mexico City mayor, though the Green Party, PRI's electoral allies, has already offered their registry to Beatriz Paredes Rangel, should she decide to run, though one can rest assure they will demand plenty in return.

It is up to Mexico City voters whether they will actually will vote for a candidate whose party is not even capable of holding a democratic election for the head of its own party branch.