The gubernatorial election in Coahuila (as in Nayarit and Mexico State) are almost five months away, so take these polls for what they're worth:
Of note, obviously, the enormous advantage of Rubén Moreira, the brother of Humberto, who just took a leave of absence to become the PRI's national party president-elect. Yet also, the very small support for PRD and the PT vis-a-vis PAN, which strongly suggests that should an alliance be made, it seems far more logical that it would be headed by a panista. Jesús González Schmall, who is promoted by AMLO, barely registers with less than a percentage point; PAN Senator Guillermo Anaya Llamas pulls at this point nearly 16 percent.
A blog on the less illuminated sides of Mexican politics with a focus on political parties and actors. CURRENTLY suspended due to circumstances beyond the blogger's control.
Thursday, February 10, 2011
L'affaire Aristegui draws international attention
While I'm happy that BBC would cover something else than Mexico's narco killings, I'd wish it to be on something more positive than the possible persecution of a journalist.
As the venerable British network reports in a very balanced piece,
1) The company fires a worker for having broken their own ethics code, "reporting a rumour as fact"
2) The presidency of Felipe Calderón forced her company to fire her.
The firing of Arisegui was really stupid, and in my eyes a far too harsh of a reaction in any case. But that is something utterly different than whether the station fired her because of pressure from the Mexican federal authorities. Clearly, if Calderón's men put pressure on MVS radio to do so, it would be an outrageous scandal, which should result in serious consequences for the administration.
Yet does any evidence exist that MVS received orders from Calderón to fire Aristegui?
Too quickly, too many have immediately sought to jump on this very serious allegation, not needing a drop of evidence other than their own suspicions. I personally find it unlikely that he would take such a drastic step that, if uncovered, would likely drastically damage his public standing, not to speak of his legacy. Maybe I am too naive, but maybe those who regard this as a deliberate attack on the freedom of the media are also a bit too conspiratorial.
As the venerable British network reports in a very balanced piece,
"some columnists saying her sacking raises questions about the freedom of the media in Mexico.But others have said that the allegations about Mr Calderon are malicious lies."There are indeed two very different issues meshed together here, as Héctor Aguilar Camín also noted in his column yesterday:
1) The company fires a worker for having broken their own ethics code, "reporting a rumour as fact"
2) The presidency of Felipe Calderón forced her company to fire her.
The firing of Arisegui was really stupid, and in my eyes a far too harsh of a reaction in any case. But that is something utterly different than whether the station fired her because of pressure from the Mexican federal authorities. Clearly, if Calderón's men put pressure on MVS radio to do so, it would be an outrageous scandal, which should result in serious consequences for the administration.
Yet does any evidence exist that MVS received orders from Calderón to fire Aristegui?
Too quickly, too many have immediately sought to jump on this very serious allegation, not needing a drop of evidence other than their own suspicions. I personally find it unlikely that he would take such a drastic step that, if uncovered, would likely drastically damage his public standing, not to speak of his legacy. Maybe I am too naive, but maybe those who regard this as a deliberate attack on the freedom of the media are also a bit too conspiratorial.
Fox can't keep his mouth shut: "Venezuela facilitates narco trafficking"
Calderón doesn't exactly have swell relations with Venezuela - as the Wikileaks have demonstrated, he maniacally sought to convince the United States that AMLO was funded by Hugo Chávez, which was of course utter nonsense - but statements like these by ex-President Vicente Fox certainly don't help either: On visit in the Dominican Republic, he claimed, without as far as I can see offering a shred of evidence, that the government of Venezuela is facilitating (facilitar, even "helping" or "promoting") drug trafficking.
If you have evidence, Chente, cough it up. If not, ¡Cállate Chachalaca¡
If you have evidence, Chente, cough it up. If not, ¡Cállate Chachalaca¡
Wednesday, February 9, 2011
Baja California Sur, final results
OK, technically not final - they have not been certified yet - but it seems very fair to assume that these will be the official electoral results of the Baja California Sur gubernatorial elections, given that the PRD will not impugn the results. From Milenio:
To his credit, PRD candidate Luis Armando Díaz has accepted his loss, though to his discredit, he foolishly declared victory on election night, against the will of PRD leader Jesús Ortega, but was pushed by, no shocker here, Dolores Padierna of the IDN current, who was one of the main responsible for the PRD's electoral structure in Baja California Sur. As expected, Padierna would come up with something nutty to explain away her paltry performance and to take a stab at the PRD leadership: PAN and PRD actually made a pact so that the PRD candidate would lose. This is, of course, nonsense.
In terms of the results, it is clear that as deputies are elected on a district basis, PAN-PRS (the local party it went in coalition with) will get 9 out of 21 deputies, PRI-PVEM 6, PRT-PT 4, and Nueva Alianza and Convergencia one each. A far more fragmented legislature than before, when PRD-PT had a majority of 12 together. Note, though, that many of the new PAN legislators were until recently perredistas.
Also of note: PRI made quite a comeback by also winning the capital La Paz and the Loreto district. PAN won Comondú, hometown of governor-to-be and former PRD member Marcos Covarrubias, while PRD hung on to the important tourist town of Los Cabos, where the outgoing governor's brother Antonio Agúndez will be the mayor. It must be of some consolation to the PRD that Leonel Cota, the former governor and national party leader who ditched the party, scraped in at barely 11.63 percent and fourth place. No lost love for a man who has gone through half a dozen party the last decade, only to in the end call for a vote for the PRI.
To his credit, PRD candidate Luis Armando Díaz has accepted his loss, though to his discredit, he foolishly declared victory on election night, against the will of PRD leader Jesús Ortega, but was pushed by, no shocker here, Dolores Padierna of the IDN current, who was one of the main responsible for the PRD's electoral structure in Baja California Sur. As expected, Padierna would come up with something nutty to explain away her paltry performance and to take a stab at the PRD leadership: PAN and PRD actually made a pact so that the PRD candidate would lose. This is, of course, nonsense.
In terms of the results, it is clear that as deputies are elected on a district basis, PAN-PRS (the local party it went in coalition with) will get 9 out of 21 deputies, PRI-PVEM 6, PRT-PT 4, and Nueva Alianza and Convergencia one each. A far more fragmented legislature than before, when PRD-PT had a majority of 12 together. Note, though, that many of the new PAN legislators were until recently perredistas.
Also of note: PRI made quite a comeback by also winning the capital La Paz and the Loreto district. PAN won Comondú, hometown of governor-to-be and former PRD member Marcos Covarrubias, while PRD hung on to the important tourist town of Los Cabos, where the outgoing governor's brother Antonio Agúndez will be the mayor. It must be of some consolation to the PRD that Leonel Cota, the former governor and national party leader who ditched the party, scraped in at barely 11.63 percent and fourth place. No lost love for a man who has gone through half a dozen party the last decade, only to in the end call for a vote for the PRI.
A quick review, of sorts: James Cockcroft's 2010 "Mexico's Revolution Then and Now" Book
John Cockcroft is a veteran activist and academic, who has a long and highly laudable trajectory in defense of workers and human rights within Mexico and the United States. His "Intellectual Precursors of the Mexican Revolution, 1900-1913," originally published in 1968 and now just reissued, is a classic study of the Flores Magón and their crucial contribution to the Revolution.
* On the topic of the military: "There is always the chance of a military coup in Mexico, and judging from the reception of the coup in Honduras the empire might welcome it" (p. 42).
No, I really don't think the U.S. would welcome a coup in Mexico, and that claim strikes me as really absurd. And empirically, does any evidence exist at all that coup in Mexico by the military is likely?
* There is a claim that in Mexico, "0.07 percent" of Mexicans owns 40 percent (!) of Mexico's wealth, and another that only Haiti has a higher gap between the rich and poor in Latin America. Both are clearly wrong, and should appear as patently absurd at face value - or simply by just by looking up such data at the ECLAC Web Site, in the ECLAC Statistical Yearbook.
* President Felipe Calderón is referred to continually as the "de facto president." Why? Because AMLO won the election in 2006 with "half a million to two million more votes than Felipe Calderón." Yet how can a serious academic simply present this as a "fact," and be expected to be taken seriously? There is absolutely no evidence that AMLO received more votes than Calderón. Moreover, there is absolutely no evidence that a fraud took place in 2006. In all seriousness: Four years have passed, and how long do we have to waste time on this charade? Are all academics, not to mention electoral observers, all rightwing members of the mafia and simply part of a giant conspiracy to cover up AMLO's win? Why, after four years, has absolutely no evidence surfaced?
(Cockcroft at one point refers to the book by José Antonio Crespo, 2006: hablan las actas hablan, which, as Crespo himself accepts, does not prove that a fraud took place, or that AMLO actually got more votes (the book does offer a theoretical probability of a scenario where AMLO could have won, yet doesn't prove in the slightest that AMLO won or that a fraud took place).
* More on AMLO. I find the parallels the author draws between AMLO and Ricardo Flores Magón to be weak, to put it mildly. Yes, the author is one of the greatest living authorities on Flores Magón, who was indeed a visionary, an internationalist who only saw Mexico's struggle as part of a world context, and actively sought ties with organizations in the United States and elsewhere as part of this international struggle. AMLO could not care two bits about what happens outside of Mexico: He has absolutely no interest in foreign affairs, and is moreover a highly personalistic, top-down plebiscitarian - "the movement is me," as he once told Senator Carlos Navarrete - a far cry from the democratic party Flores Magón sought to build. Yes, AMLO's magazine has taken the name of that famous publication of the El Partido Liberal Mexicano, but AMLO is no Flores Magón. In his dealings with his own party, he has consistently been authoritarian minded, with no respect for the PRD's decisions.
* There is a presentation of the SME, the Mexican electricians union, as an ardent and just defender of workers right." Yet there is no mention of the fact that another state-owned company took over the SME's operation of the Luz y Fuerza company, whose level of service was absolutely abysmal, or that SME cadres have been engaging in outright violence and thuggery against their fellow workers. This also goes for the miners union of Napoleón Gómez Urrutia,
* He calls for a "new nationalization" of PEMEX, the Mexican state oil company. I don't even know what that really means, but will note this: PEMEX is in desperate need today of foreign technology and expertise. Look to Norway, and look to Brazil: Their Statoil and Petrobras companies are among the most dynamic in the world, majority-owned by their states, yet thanks to private investment and know-how have become extremely dynamic companies whose revenue has been crucial in the funding of social programs in the respective countries.
* When it comes to PEMEX, I find AMLO's posture setentista, echeverrista, and thus ultimately conservative and even reactionary, but that is not my main point here: Cockcroft claims that AMLO's Adelitas, or a loose organization of women loyal to his movement, stopped a privatization drive by the PRI and PAN. This is just ludicrous. At the time of this debate, in early to late 2008, a vast majority of both congressional houses, including the PRD, voted for a reform of PEMEX that did not seek to privatize it. Indeed, all but a handful of the most ultra-loyal AMLO senators voted in favor. AMLO, however, though he has no seat in either house, wanted to force in - with emphasis on force in - some additional 20 or so words in the final legislation, and warned that unless this took place, the mafia would privatize PEMEX. In a pathetic exercise of plebescitariamism, he "asked" his followers, all gathered for the "defense" of petroleum, if they still wanted to take action against the legislators, even though the final text obviously had nothing to do with privatization. His followers "voted" yes, and subsequently tried to storm the Senate, trying with brute physical force and violence to short-circuit the democratic legislative process. The PEMEX reform passed, without AMLO's additional sentence inserted. And now, more than two years later, was PEMEX privatized? Did AMLO "save" it from privatization? Of course he did not. PEMEX remained 100% monopolized by the state, both in upstream and downstream operations. Not, as I've argued elsewhere, that this is a good thing.
There is more, but out of fear of boring the reader I will limit myself to these comments. In sum: Too many times, Cockcroft's radical - for they are radical - claims are thrown out with no supporting evidence; often his interpretations equally fly in the face of empirical reality. Yet its deepest flaw comes in its final page, which I believe will serve to reject many readers otherwise sympathetic to Cockcroft's message. He tells us that the young ask him, '''Isn't an armed popular struggle needed?" to which he answers:
I just finished reading Cockcroft's "Mexico's Revolution Then and Now," which came out just last year, and wanted to add a few observations and criticisms of the book.
Cockcroft is certainly a radical writer, in the sense that most would place him on the far left. I have certainly no problems with strongly ideological writers - we all have, if we define ideology in the looser sense as logically connected ideas of how we want the world to be, our own ideological predispositions, and Cockcroft is merely quite forthright about then. Yet I find his radicalism disturbing, from reasons I want to detail below.
The book is concise and a quick read. It is essentially Cockcroft's interpretation of the past hundred years of Mexico's political trajectory, and in some ways a condensed presentation of his earlier works.
He ardently and honorable draws attention to many abuses of the social and human rights of Mexicans, both within Mexico and also outside, in the process delivering well-deserved critiques of U.S. policies on immigration and drug policies. One particularly poignant sentence: "Mexican immigrants are not terrorists - they have never destroyed a bridge, a building or a house; on the contrary, they have built them" (p. 109).
Yet the book also has, in my opinion, a range of very serious flaws, which lead me to wholly reject the medium and the message. I admit I diverge from many of Cockcroft's descriptions and analyses: The book is almost an open festschrift for Andrés Manuel López Obrador and organizations and unions associated with his movement - but he is of course perfectly in his right to offer this interpretation.
Where I think he is far overstepping his boundaries, is the passing off as facts a range of, to put it mildly, extremely disputed claims, for which absolutely no evidence exist. I will try to briefly present a few cases in point:
* On the one hand, Cockcroft claims Calderón's use of the military against the drug gangs is simply an excuse to militarize the country. A contentious claim in its own right; he then goes on to claim that Calderón is backing or favoring, Joaquín Guzmán Loera, or el Chapo. He is not alone in doing so. Yet what evidence exists for this? This highly contentious claim to me was at its peak around two years ago, but ever since we have seen many, many of El Chapo's associates captured or killed. By 2010, presenting such a claim with no evidence doesn't have much force to it. And an additional point with regards to the cartels: He attacks Calderón's "self-declared" war, which at best is imprecise: Calderón, in fact, actively avoids using the term, and berates the media for its use of it. Disagree with his actions or not: He never declared a war. (UPDATE: Though see comment below)
* On the topic of the military: "There is always the chance of a military coup in Mexico, and judging from the reception of the coup in Honduras the empire might welcome it" (p. 42).
No, I really don't think the U.S. would welcome a coup in Mexico, and that claim strikes me as really absurd. And empirically, does any evidence exist at all that coup in Mexico by the military is likely?
* There is a claim that in Mexico, "0.07 percent" of Mexicans owns 40 percent (!) of Mexico's wealth, and another that only Haiti has a higher gap between the rich and poor in Latin America. Both are clearly wrong, and should appear as patently absurd at face value - or simply by just by looking up such data at the ECLAC Web Site, in the ECLAC Statistical Yearbook.
* President Felipe Calderón is referred to continually as the "de facto president." Why? Because AMLO won the election in 2006 with "half a million to two million more votes than Felipe Calderón." Yet how can a serious academic simply present this as a "fact," and be expected to be taken seriously? There is absolutely no evidence that AMLO received more votes than Calderón. Moreover, there is absolutely no evidence that a fraud took place in 2006. In all seriousness: Four years have passed, and how long do we have to waste time on this charade? Are all academics, not to mention electoral observers, all rightwing members of the mafia and simply part of a giant conspiracy to cover up AMLO's win? Why, after four years, has absolutely no evidence surfaced?
(Cockcroft at one point refers to the book by José Antonio Crespo, 2006: hablan las actas hablan, which, as Crespo himself accepts, does not prove that a fraud took place, or that AMLO actually got more votes (the book does offer a theoretical probability of a scenario where AMLO could have won, yet doesn't prove in the slightest that AMLO won or that a fraud took place).
* More on AMLO. I find the parallels the author draws between AMLO and Ricardo Flores Magón to be weak, to put it mildly. Yes, the author is one of the greatest living authorities on Flores Magón, who was indeed a visionary, an internationalist who only saw Mexico's struggle as part of a world context, and actively sought ties with organizations in the United States and elsewhere as part of this international struggle. AMLO could not care two bits about what happens outside of Mexico: He has absolutely no interest in foreign affairs, and is moreover a highly personalistic, top-down plebiscitarian - "the movement is me," as he once told Senator Carlos Navarrete - a far cry from the democratic party Flores Magón sought to build. Yes, AMLO's magazine has taken the name of that famous publication of the El Partido Liberal Mexicano, but AMLO is no Flores Magón. In his dealings with his own party, he has consistently been authoritarian minded, with no respect for the PRD's decisions.
* There is a presentation of the SME, the Mexican electricians union, as an ardent and just defender of workers right." Yet there is no mention of the fact that another state-owned company took over the SME's operation of the Luz y Fuerza company, whose level of service was absolutely abysmal, or that SME cadres have been engaging in outright violence and thuggery against their fellow workers. This also goes for the miners union of Napoleón Gómez Urrutia,
* He calls for a "new nationalization" of PEMEX, the Mexican state oil company. I don't even know what that really means, but will note this: PEMEX is in desperate need today of foreign technology and expertise. Look to Norway, and look to Brazil: Their Statoil and Petrobras companies are among the most dynamic in the world, majority-owned by their states, yet thanks to private investment and know-how have become extremely dynamic companies whose revenue has been crucial in the funding of social programs in the respective countries.
* When it comes to PEMEX, I find AMLO's posture setentista, echeverrista, and thus ultimately conservative and even reactionary, but that is not my main point here: Cockcroft claims that AMLO's Adelitas, or a loose organization of women loyal to his movement, stopped a privatization drive by the PRI and PAN. This is just ludicrous. At the time of this debate, in early to late 2008, a vast majority of both congressional houses, including the PRD, voted for a reform of PEMEX that did not seek to privatize it. Indeed, all but a handful of the most ultra-loyal AMLO senators voted in favor. AMLO, however, though he has no seat in either house, wanted to force in - with emphasis on force in - some additional 20 or so words in the final legislation, and warned that unless this took place, the mafia would privatize PEMEX. In a pathetic exercise of plebescitariamism, he "asked" his followers, all gathered for the "defense" of petroleum, if they still wanted to take action against the legislators, even though the final text obviously had nothing to do with privatization. His followers "voted" yes, and subsequently tried to storm the Senate, trying with brute physical force and violence to short-circuit the democratic legislative process. The PEMEX reform passed, without AMLO's additional sentence inserted. And now, more than two years later, was PEMEX privatized? Did AMLO "save" it from privatization? Of course he did not. PEMEX remained 100% monopolized by the state, both in upstream and downstream operations. Not, as I've argued elsewhere, that this is a good thing.
There is more, but out of fear of boring the reader I will limit myself to these comments. In sum: Too many times, Cockcroft's radical - for they are radical - claims are thrown out with no supporting evidence; often his interpretations equally fly in the face of empirical reality. Yet its deepest flaw comes in its final page, which I believe will serve to reject many readers otherwise sympathetic to Cockcroft's message. He tells us that the young ask him, '''Isn't an armed popular struggle needed?" to which he answers:
"I always tell these young activists that in my opinion this does not appear to be the appropriate moment to promote an armed rebellion in the way the Magonistas did in 1909-1911, the circumstances are different, above all the inequality of military power between the citizenry and the armed forces of Mexico and the United States" (p. 139).If all that is keeping you from endorsing an armed rebellion against Mexico's young, hard-fought and fragile democracy today, is simply that the opponent is too physically strong, as opposed to a principled rejection of the violent overthrowal of democratic regimes, you have utterly lost me.
New rival teachers union established: Sindicato Independiente de Trabajadores de la Educación en México (SITEM)
The Sindicato Independiente de Trabajadores de la Educación en México (SITEM), or the new Independent Education Workers Union in Mexico, finally received the toma de nota from the federal labor secretariat, and is thus officially registered as a new union rival to the SNTE of Elba Esther Gordillo.
For the sake of the quality of education in Mexico, which on many levels is abysmal due to the reign of Gordillo and her charro union, this is signficiant news. SITEM, according to its own figures, already has 8000 workers registered, and will in the coming weeks launch a massive campaign of affiliation to draw in more members, primarily in Guanajuato, Querétaro, Hidalgo, Puebla, Veracruz, Quintana Roo, and Mexico City, according to the new secretary general, Juan Carlos Villanueva.
That is, though, a drop in the ocean compared to the more than 1.5 million members of Gordillo's SNTE, the largest union in Latin America. Yet it may be, as it goes, the start of something beautiful.
For the sake of the quality of education in Mexico, which on many levels is abysmal due to the reign of Gordillo and her charro union, this is signficiant news. SITEM, according to its own figures, already has 8000 workers registered, and will in the coming weeks launch a massive campaign of affiliation to draw in more members, primarily in Guanajuato, Querétaro, Hidalgo, Puebla, Veracruz, Quintana Roo, and Mexico City, according to the new secretary general, Juan Carlos Villanueva.
That is, though, a drop in the ocean compared to the more than 1.5 million members of Gordillo's SNTE, the largest union in Latin America. Yet it may be, as it goes, the start of something beautiful.
Tuesday, February 8, 2011
Is Mexico's defense minister a crack head?
Ciro Gómez Leyva dedicates his column in today's Milenio to the affaire Calderón ivrogne (OK, I liked the rhyming bit), and notes,
But he hasn't confirmed that he isn't.
"If tomorrow someone invents that the Secretary of Defense is addicted to crack and rat poison, would it be his duty to go out and reject this lie because he has a hundred thousand soldiers under his command? What are we talking about here?"For the record, I don't think Mexico's defense minister is a crack head and rat poison addict.
But he hasn't confirmed that he isn't.
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