Mexico State may hide ticking budget bomb

While clearly Enrique Peña has very tangible electoral benefits to gain from handing over Mexico State to a PRI successor, there might be other motives lurking as well: According to an investigation by Jenaro Villamil in last week's Proceso, there is a 10 billion peso discrepancy between what what the Mexico State Congress has approved as the state's budget, and what Peña Nieto's government has spent.


(Villamil has written extensively on Peña Nieto both in Proceso's pages and outside, such as his 2009 book A subscription is required to access the full article, but he also has a most interesting blog, where a version of it can be accessed).

Basically, using the state's transparency laws to gain access to information (quite ironic, one should add), Villamil finds huge differences between what the State congress allocated for spending for 2010, and what the government's own secretariats report as being spent, in some places up to a seven-fold overspending. 


I've yet to see any reaction or comments from the Mexico State government on these claims, which are most serious: If we are to take this story at its word, it may appear that Peña Nieto has seriously cranked up on spending that has not been approved by the legislature, and for which there may simply be enough funds. And we're not talking small change here: 10 billion pesos equals a possible budget shortfall of close to 800 million dollars. 

PRI and PAN demand full cleanup of the National Institute of Migration (INM)

In a great - and rare these days - display of bipartisanship, key PAN and PRI legislators such as Norma Leticia Salazar (PAN) and Miguel Ernesto Pompa Corella (PRI) called for a thorough cleanup and restructuring of the Instituto Nacional de Migración, the National Institute of Migration (INM), following the firing of its leader, widely regarded as inept, Cecilia Romero. This is important.

Pompa:

"We must ensure that those who come to the institute not only knows the subject, but have they have the will to apply the relevant law, are disposed to be held accountable, end the opaqueness, and rein in those who work in migration. I am from the border, and we see how they provide no protection to our countrymen and far from protecting them, they themselves extort them, so for this we will be keenly watching"

PRI Senator Carlos Jiménez Macía declared that Romero's leadership the past four years 
was "the darkest era in the migratory history of the country," given the increase in harassment, abductions, and outright murder of immigrants, above all central Americans since Romero took power in December 2006.  


PAN deputy Salazar Vázquez also emphasized a need to amend the penal code to ensure that those collaborating in the trafficking of migrants - Mexican, Central Americans, or otherwise - will be duly punished. Let's hope so. Clearly, however, the crimes of the INM go beyond a single leader, or even a handful of bad apples: Serious institutional restructuring is in order for trust to ever be gained in the INM. 

PRI holds its last Political Council with Beatriz Paredes as party president

While hurricane Karl might affect attendance, PRI is holding its its Political Council this weekend. The entire top PRI leadership, with the notable exception of  Enrique Peña Nieto and Manlio Fabio Beltrones, its two top candidates for PRI 2012, have reported they will attend the Council deliberations, which will swear in a few new council members, debate the party's strategy toward 2012, as well as notably try to decide how to elect its new party leader after Beatriz Paredes Rangel. Quite unusually, Humberto Moreira, PRI governor of Coahuila, has already and most publicly stated his desire to be PRI's next president, warning that the next party leader  should not be anyone who merely wants to use the office it as a trampoline to become the PRI's presidential candidate in 2012. This is a thinly veiled reference to Roberto Madrazo, the infamous Tabascan who did exactly that in 2005-6, but also a possible warning to Beatriz Paredes as well, who has not ruled out a presidential bid, as well as possibly extending her mandate as PRI president. Notably, Jorge Carlos Ramírez Marín, who will preside the Chamber of Deputies the next period, is considered to be her man, in the figurative sense. 


Humberto Moreira Valdés is scheduled to end his sexenio as governor of Coahila in Dec. 2011, and he would thus cut short his term by a year should be be the new PRI leader.  Moreira might also be referring to his possible opponent Ismael Hernández Deras, who will shortly step down as governor of Durango, but as many PRI watchers have not ruled out as a possible contender for 2012, given his seeming popularity within and outside of Durango.


Other possible PRI presidency candidates are Francisco Rojas Gutiérrez, leader of PRI's parliamentary group, and Emilio Gamboa, newly elected leader of PRI's CNOP (Confederación Nacional de Organizaciones Populares), traditionally its "popular" or middle-class organization. Gamboa though is on bad terms with Paredes.


Humberto Moreira is on notably good terms with "the unnamable" (to borrow from AMLO's vocabulary) Carlos Salinas, and should Humberto Moreira manage to position himself well as PRI leader, he will likely work for the candidacy of Enrique Peña Nieto. Look for any hints of papal white smoke this weekend.

The Green Party lies through its teeth; Octavio Germán Olivares: Peña Nieto's Law to Supreme Court

Octavio Germán Olivares, leader of PAN in Mexico State, announced that as soon as what has been dubbed by many actors as "Peña Nieto's Law" (the recent initiative to block alliances in Mexico State and to cut short the time allowed for campaigning, both explicitly favoring the current governor) is published in the Gaceta General de Gobierno and thus made state law, PAN will take the legislation to the Mexican Supreme Court. So will Convergencia - quite ironically, though, as its Mexico State delegation is in the hands of Peña Nieto and backed the law.

The rush with which the PRI machinery has been pushing and passing this law is simply stunning. The law was introduced into congress by PVEM deputy Adrián Fuente, rushed through commissions, and then voted on the floor, all within days. Now, mere hours after having been approved, the legislation was sent out to Mexico State's 125 municipalities, 63 of which need to approve it, which will not be a problem given that PRI-PVEM who ran together in alliance just last year, as well as with a few other allied minor parties, control 97 of them. Expect them to be rushed back well in time for Oct. 5, which is the absolute deadline for ratifying them.
Given the paralysis and delay of reforms that pervades in many legislatures, this level of "fast-track," as La Jornada deems it, is simply stunning.

Peña Nieto, for his part, though he has sheepishly denied having anything to do with the legislation, stated that he backs the reform as the electorate is "confused" by political alliances.

Yet the price for cynicism  - or, outright stupidity - goes to Arturo Escobar, PVEM's national secretary of electoral affairs, no less, who denies that the PVEM is running Peña Nieto's errand by falsely arguing that the Mexico State electoral law will now simply be harmonized with federal law. This is quite a riot: Federal electoral law just went the opposite direction: Following the 2007 Electoral Reform, parties can still run in a coalition but will now have to run on their own weight and own label rather than just on a common coalition label. For instance, while PRD negotiated in advance with PT and Convergencia on the numbers of legislators these parities would receive in return for running on a common platform with the PRD behind the 2006 candidacy of Andrés Manuel López Obrador, they will, on the federal level, now have to run on separate legislative lists, carrying their own weight. The PVEM is thus shockingly unfamiliar with Mexican electoral law, or, worse and more plausible still, simply lies through its teeth, hoping not to get caught.

And the kicker: Guess what party voted against the 2007 Federal Electoral Reform? Yes... The Green Party!

Recommended read on Oaxaca "neo-patrimonialism"

I just wanted to draw attention to an excellent analysis on Oaxacan politics and the concept of "neo-patrimonialism by Julian Durazo-Herrmann, of Université du Québec à Montréal."Neo-Patrimonialism and Subnational Authoritarianism in Mexico. The Case of Oaxaca" offers a wonderfully succinct and well-written (a rarity in academic works) summary and analysis of recent political history in the Mexican state of Oaxaca, and the author applies and further develops the concept of "neo-patrimonialism" as an analyical tool to explain Oaxaca's trajectory. 

Despite Mexico's 2000 transition on the national level, authoritarianism remained, and even deepened, in several of Mexico's states.  Durazo-Herrmann argues, 

"In many cases, however, neo-patrimonial elites can adjust, adopting formally democratic reforms while continuing to pursue authoritarian practices, at least over some aspects of the subnational political system (Gervasoni 2010 in this issue). This long and ambiguous process of political adaptation and restructuring is known as hybridization and allows for – and serves to legitimize – the coexistence of formally democratic political institutions with authoritarian practices." (p. 88)

While Oaxaca's distinct social make-up has provided fertile breeding ground for neo-patrimonialism, the concept should be applicable to several more of particularly Mexico's southern states, though Oaxaca may represent the textbook case. While its "neo-patrimonial domination system" remained up until the present, the 2010 victory of Gabino Cué may well signal the beginning of the end - or the end of the beginning of the end - of this authoritarian practice. 


The paper is published in the new excellent journal Journal of Politics in Latin America, which is, unlike most high-quality academic journals available entirely for free. It is well worth your time. 

"The only difference I see between Diaz Ordaz and Enrique Peña is that Diaz Ordaz was ugly."

Jorge Insunza, a PAN local deputy in the Mexico State congress, made the quote of the day: "The only difference I see between Diaz Ordaz and Enrique Peña is that Diaz Ordaz was ugly."


Insunza Armas compared Mexico State governor Enrique Peña unfavorably to Gustavo Díaz Ordaz, the authoritarian PRI president with an inferiority and insecurity complex (1964-70) from Puebla who ordered the gunning down of hundreds of demonstrators in Tlatelolco in 1968. 


Beyond the exaggerated comparison, it appears that Peña Nieto will stop at nothing from reaching the presidency. In a day of infamy in the Mexico State legislature, what has now been baptized "Peña Nieto's Law,"  explicitly aimed at stopping a PAN-PRD common candidate, passed by a 52-21 margin -  PRI, PVEM, PANAL, PSD, and Convergencia against the votes of PRD, PAN and PT. 

PRD legislators Oscar Sánchez Juárez and Ricardo Moreno Bastida stood guard at a coffin that contained Mexico's electoral law, and the PRD had brought mariachis who entoned Las Golondrina, all symbolizing the death of democracy in Mexico State. Moreno dixit: 

"We are having a wake for the remains of democracy in a small coffin, because this democracy was very young, and still it was murdered by Governor Enrique Peña, for the fear it caused him"

That is also an exaggeration, but the blatant institutional engineering - changing the electoral code opportunistically exclusively to block a common opposition candidate, as well as to reduce the time allowed for campaigns, which blatantly favors Peña Nieto's media-promoted and -created candidacy - is an exercise in blatant institutional engineering, and an ominous omen for his possible presidency. 

Marcelo Ebrard, who has maintained a relatively cordial relationship with his peer in Mexico State, called the initiative a "typical PRI abuse":

"What matters is that they know they might lose the state of Mexico. There has never been an alternation [of power] in the state of Mexico and sure this year we will see, for the first time in history, a change of party"

The law will now need to be ratified by a majority of the municipalities, which will not be a problem due to the PRI's dominance of Mexico State politics. Last year, to recall, PRI and the Green Party (PVEM) in alliance won about 4/5 of the state's municipalities (97 out of 125, to be exact), due to the very mechanism of a common candidate. This is the first electoral "reform" in 15 years that is pushed through in a majoritarian manner, without any input from opposition parties.


PRD and PAN may, however, take the matters to the Mexican Supreme Court. Regardless, all gloves are now off, if they were ever on.

Cecilia Romero forced out of National Institute for Migration

While she has fought tooth and nail at several times the past years to retain her position as head of the National Institute for Migration (Instituto Nacional de Migración, INM), Cecilia Romero was finally fired from the INM. The PRD in particular had kept up pressure on Romero following the most recent massacre of immigrants in Tamaulipas, deeming here "politically responsible" for the massacre, and senators altered the past weeks between demanding that she appear to explain the INM's failure to adequately protect migrants, and outright calling for her resignation. Romero adamantly refused to make any appearance in the Senate, which as recently as yesterday again called for her to report on the INM's work, or to step down.

As an indidation of how vehemntly Romero had fought her dismissal, the INM for hours couldn't even make itself present an official story for exactly why Romero was leaving.  Her work has been criticized by the National Human Rights Commission (Comisión Nacional de los Derechos Humanos, CNDH) as well as internatioanl observers such as Amnesty International. As recently as May, she brushed off criticism by the CNDH on the massive increased in abuses and kidnappings as mere "suggestions, not recommendations."

I find it ironic that while she survived three interior ministers, the apparent docile Francisco Blake Mora would be her bane.