Thursday, October 21, 2010

Schisms also happen on the political right: El Yunque-PAN fight in Guanajuato heats up

Gerardo Mosqueda Martínez renounced as the  Secretario de Gobierno, or secretary of state of Guanajuato's state government, in order to pursue the PAN's nomination to be its candidate for goverrnor.
While leaving government 20 months before the election seem to suggest that Mosqueda Martínez was fired for his ambitions rather than having left voluntarily, this would in itself too noteworthy.
(For instance, on the national level, many may recall how Vicente Fox kicked out then-Secretary of Energy Felipe Calderón for his activism, only to have Calderón return to snatch the nomination ahead of Fox' favorite Santiago Creel).

What is, however, noteworthy is that Gerardo Mosqueda Martínez is a very prominent member of the ultra-right catholic extremist organization El Yunque, and very close to Elías Villegas Torres, the man who has often been signaled as the leader of this secretive organization. Now, Mosqueda Martínez will fight against the PAN party machinery to be its gubernatorial candidate, a party of which he is not even a member: He is a yunquista, not a panista.

Governor of Guanajuato Juan Manuel Oliva has often been accused of being in the hands El Yunque, yet the current affair serves to suggest a schism between more moderate sectors of PAN, and the Yunque.  Oliva's desired heir apparent is his minister of social development, Miguel Márquez, yet he is apparently not too far to the right for the yunquista. Nor, to be sure, is federal Secretary of Health José Ángel Córdova, who has long expressed his desire to enter the fight for the nomination.

The case of Gerardo Mosqueda Martínez seems to me quite interesting for two reasons:
1) It is indicative of the ever-loosening control of Felipe Calderón of PAN, and certainly show should el yunque manage to install Mosqueda as its candidate
2) The PAN-Yunque coalition is in Guanajuato under some serious strain, and a schism might well happen in the local state branch of PAN.

On a national level, just like the U.S. Republican party, who struggle with incorporating their own tea party loonies (without exaggerating this parallel), the Mexican PAN is an uneasy mix of social reactionaries and ultraconservatives, with relatively liberal minded and moderate christian democrats, such as Fox. While the coalition has held up since 1939, more or less, it may not last forever, especially following the wear-and-tear of eight years in government. 

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