While unlikely, one precedent did exist: in Quintana Roo, one "pre-candidate" for a seat in the chamber of deputies in Quintana Roo was actually disqualified for participating on the grounds that she had started campaigning for the nomination of her party before the allowed time period. In this case, the Partido Acción Nacional (PAN), following political ads sponsored by the Partido del Trabajo (PT) where AMLO appeared, had complained to IFE that AMLO was similarly engaging in campaigning too early, as well as complaining that AMLO and PT were "denigrating" the presidency in another ad.
Notably, AMLO was absolved on both accounts - yet the PT was not. Yesterday, IFE ordered the PT to pay a fine of one million pesos for the latter offense. As it were, PAN also received almost 7 million pesos in fines for their own electoral transgressions, making it a bit harder for AMLO to maintain his line that all of Mexico's political institutions are controlled by "The Mafia" and Carlos Salinas. While one would think the IFE based their decision on objective standards of legality, one might only contemplate the hell AMLO would raise had IFE deemed him to be engaging in forbidden "pre-campaigning," and thus disqualified any possibility of a 2012 candidacy.
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