Former PRI governor Ángel Aguirre Rivero favorite in poll to be PRD candidate

To the list of official PRD "pre-candidates" for the governorship of Guerrero one can now add  PRI senator Ángel Aguirre Rivero. According to a poll commissioned by the national leadership, the former PRI interim governor (1996-1999) is far ahead the current pre-candidates, PRD senators Lázaro Mazón Alonso and David Jiménez Rumbo, former PRD national deputy Cuauhtémoc Sandoval Ramírez, and PRD national deputy Armando Río Píter, the latter considered until now the top contender. 


The decision of Ángel Aguirre Rivero to drop the PRI for the PRD is, of course, purely opportunistic: An informal yet longstanding agreement with his cousin Manuel Añorve, current PRI mayor of the all-important district of Acapulco, fell through as Añorve sought and won the PRI's candidacy (though not fully official). Aguirre Rivero, denied the backing of the PRI leadership, promptly engaged in conversation with the PRD and the DIA coalition of PRD-PT-Convergencia, regarding a possible run on the PRD ticket. 


He appears now the coalition's most likely candidate.


This rather last-minute candidacy (though talks have been going on in secret for weeks) is quite stunning for a number of reasons. For one, should Aguirre Rivero become PRD candidate, it will cause much turmoil within the party. He took over as PRI governor following the infamous Aguas Blancas massacre in Guerrero in 1995, where scores of campesinos were murdered by the police and eventually forced the resignation of then-governor Rubén Figueroa, who was implicated in the massacre. Aguirre Rivero was designated by the state congress to replace him. 


Within the PRD, in particular the followers of Armando Río Píter are likely to protest Aguirre Rivero's inclusion. But the story gets even more interesting: While Manuel Añorve, the PRI candidate, is the candidate of the powerful PRI senator and possible presidential contender Manuel Fabio Beltrones, Aguirre Rivero is a friend of Mexico State governor Enrique Peña Nieto, Beltrones's strongest rival for the PRI candidacy. 


The million-dollar question is: Will Peña Nieto back his friend, who might then win on the PRD ticket, or will he rally behind the official PRI candidate who is close to Beltrones -whose presidential candidacy has been given a boost in recent weeks - which in the short run may hurt his own nomination for 2012?


The likelihood of a PRI split looms even larger than a PRD split.