CNC split from PRI? Unlikely yet threats fly as Mexican budget is passed

The Mexican Chamber of Deputies finally approved next year's federal budget, which is its prerogative. An apparent last-minute cut of more than 4 billion pesos in transfers to the countryside caused quite a stir, with PRI deputy Cruz López Aguilar resigning from the chamber's agricultural commission. López Aguilar, notably, is the leader of the Confederacion Nacional Campesina, a long-time pillar of PRI support. According to the CNC,  four of out five campesinos still suffer from simply having enough access to food, as the price they can fetch for their products is significantly lower than agricultural imports.

Reportedly, the peasant sector had been promised 33.4 billion pesos, a sum that changed to 29 billion pesos, though some legislators such as PAN's Gabriela Cuevas denied that the first sum had ever been promised.

In any case, CNC still has a massive presence among PRI's deputies; some sources put the figure as high as 85 deputies being affiliated with this organization. Significantly, Cruz López Aguilar actually threatened to leave the PRI altogether. While I have a hard time seeing he will follow through on his threat, it is clear it would be of enormous political importance if he did. 

Echoes of 1997: New Oaxaca legislature first-ever without PRI majority

At last, half a year (!) after the July 5 state elections, the 61st Oaxaca state legislature was finally installed.
Just like what happened on the national level in 1997, for the first time in Oaxaca's history, PRI will not have a majority in the state congress: PRI will have 16, while the united opposition will total 26 seats. Of those, 11 will be from PAN, 9 from PRD, 3 from Convergencia, 2 from PT, and one for a local party.
The legislature already made history: With a 40-to-2 vote, the deputies made Eufrosina Cruz Mendoza head of the legislature. It was only in 2007 that Cruz Mendoza, an indigenous Zapotec just like the great Benito Juárez, was denied assuming as president of the Santa María Quielogani municipality for being a woman.

One can only hope the PRI deputies will act more responsibly than the outgoing deputies, many of whom were loudly denounced by protesters as they terminated their mandate. Just two weeks ago, the outgoing 25-strong PRI delegation sought to again pass modifications to the charter regulating the operation of congress that would in practice have allowed the incoming largest single - PRI - the control of the most important of the legislature's organ, even if it only had a plurality and not a majority. The Supreme Court struck down this blatant attempt at institutional engineering, but the PRI deputies held a session without the opposition present where they basically passed the same proposed "reform." It is truly in this party's DNA to seek to bend, twist, shape, or brake any law or rule in their favor: You can take the PRI out of power, but never the hunger for power at all cost out of the PRI.

It should therefore hardly come as a surprise that the Supreme Court's @lex, a judicial statistics portal, recently revealed that from 2004-2008, the Oaxaca government headed by outgoing priísta Governor Ulises Ruiz, was the Mexican state that was involved in the highest number of constitutional controversies with the Supreme Court: Ruiz himself was denounced 19 times by different municipalities in the state, as well as 20 times by the Federal government, accused of having violated the constitution.

Already legislators such as Flavio Sosa, former head of Asamblea Popular de los Pueblos de Oaxaca (APPO) and earlier imprisoned by Ruiz, has called for a truth commission,  a demand backed by at least PAN and PRD. Let's hope that incoming governor Gabino Cué will not renege on his promises to thoroughly investigate any and all aspect of the extremely controversial Ruiz years.

Sandoval Íñiguez: "Ebrard is hanging on to me to get to Los Pinos"

This weekend's price for excessively elevated self-importance goes to.... Guadalajara Cardinal Juan Sandoval Íñiguez.

According to the cardinal, who says he "doesn't want to get into a discussion with that man" - for sure, it's far too convenient to simply hurl accusations and then not have the spine to stand by them - the public spats between him and Marcelo Ebrard are simply products of this:  "What he wants to do is simply to hang on to be in order to be a public figure, and then run for the presidency - that is what he wants."

Never mind that Ebrard holds the second most important elective office in Mexico. Never mind that his public approval ratings are high and his vote intentions have been rising throughout the country. Never mind that Ebrard showed a remarkable lack of restraint toward Sandoval's provocations before responding to them: All he wanted the whole time was to ride on Sandoval's coattails. Now we know.

Pro-AMLO block formed in Mexico State congress, but draw little support

Though AMLO will likely construe it as just another sign that the PRD is "hijacked" by his enemies, it is noticable that the new legislative block formed in the Mexico State legislature to back AMLO from the PRD only drew in Ricardo Moreno Bastida, who was until recently coordinator of the group yet was deposed by his peers after opposing the PAN-PRD coalitions and then declared himself "independent" of any party affiliation, and Crisóforo Hernández Mena, in addition to three PT deputies - Carlos Sánchez, Francisco Barragán y Óscar Hernández - and, quite amusingly, the three Convergencia deputies as well as Horacio Jiménez, Miguel Ángel Xolalpa e Ignacio Samperio.

Why amusing? While Convergencia on the national level is a more or less loyal backer of AMLO, in Mexico State the party has often joined forces with Governor Enrique Peña Nieto. Most notoriously, and quite recently, the Convergencia deputies voted in favor of the now-infamous Ley Peña, a last-minute legislation steamrolled through congress to seek to prevent a common PAN-PRD candidate. One can only hope that someday it will be uncovered what they asked and got in return from the Mexico State governor.
In any case, that new lopezobradorista block did not attract more members seem to suggest that the PRD is, despite AMLO's incessant campaigning against the alliances, quite lined up behind its state council, which voted 2/3 in favor of entering in alliances with parties such as the PAN.

Mexican Senate demands explanation from Governor Peña Nieto on femicides.

The murders of women in Mexico State is drawing national attention.

All parties represented in the Mexican Senate voted unanimously to demand that Mexico State Governor Enrique Peña Nieto come up with a report on the high number of femicides, or targeted murders of women and young girls, in his state. As noted earlier, Mexico State is the worst entity in Mexico in sheer numbers: Out of 2015 murders of women and girls in 18 of Mexico's 32 entities between Jan. 2007-Dec. 2009, 556 took place in Mexico State.

Notably, even PRI's senators voted for the agreement, which also called for Peña Nieto to "redesign and implement public policies for the prevention, deterrence, punishment and eradication of circumstances that generate and foster the murders of women," and specifically for the state Attorney General's office, whose shocking incompetence was exposed in the infamous Paulette case, to punish those responsible.

Mexican military to grow by 10,000; WOLA: Abused and Afraid in Ciudad Juarez

The Washington's Office of Latin America's September report Abused and Afraid in Ciudad Juarez (direct download here), while not containing any new and groundbreaking information, is a highly recommended read for those new to the new dilemmas of the massive militarization of Mexico's "war" against the drug gangs, and the explosion of human rights abuses in its wake.

It is particularly timely given that national defense commission in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies just endorsed a budget jump for the armed forces of 13.3 billion pesos, or around 1.1 billion dollars, in order to cover the cost of recruiting, training, and arming 10,000 more personnel.

The total defense budget will be around 65 billion pesos, around 5.3 billion. To put this is perspective: This is more than double of what was authorized to be spent on the armed forces when Calderón first came to power.

One should not be surprised to down the road learn of massive jumps in human rights abuses from the military either, one major criticism of Calderón's war that the president more often than not has chosen to ignore than to address seriously. I understand fully well that some of these drug gangs are so vicious and well armed that only military-grade forces can possibly take them on. Yet the thought of simply throwing 10,000 more troops in there profoundly worries me, for reasons the WOLA report expounds upon quite well.

One step forward for gay rights: Congress approves same-sex benefits

One strike against discrimination and for humankind moving forward: The Chamber of Deputies yesterday voted overwhelmingly to approve changes to the laws governing the Mexican state institutes for social security institute (IMSS) and for social services and security for state workers (ISSTE) that guarantees rights and benefits to same-sex unions and marriages. Both institutions had previously discriminated against spouses of such unions, which were denied such services even though their partners had paid their dues. They will now have the same rights as spouses/partners of straight couples.

The law was a result of an initiative promoted by PRD national deputy Enoé Uranga, and was backed by
PRI's Rubén Moreira, president of the chamber's human rights commission. The chamber voted 232-58 in favor, with 17 abstentions, and notably quite a few key panistas voted in favor of the initatives, such as former borough chief Gabriela Cuevas. Even the socially conservative PAN is changing, and is increasingly torn between the hardcore  social conservative and ultra-catholic right, and more liberal-minded and younger cadres.

The initiative will now head to the Senate, where PAN has a much higher representation as the Senate was elected in 2006. If enough PAN Senators choose to look forward and vote with PRI and the PRD, the imitative will become law as a presidential veto is extremely unlikely.