Fox, no longer with PAN

Many in the PAN would like to kick Vicente Fox out of the party, above all given his increasingly public embrace of then-PRI candidate and now president Enrique Peña Nieto. Yet Fox might beat them to it: The former president (2000-6) said he won't renew his party membership, in protest over those who have "appropriated" the party - a not-too-veiled reference to ex-president Felipe Calderón.

Not that Fox was ever very close to the PAN - even though he was a federal deputy for the party already back in 1988 and won the presidency on the PAN label in 2000, he pretty much ignored the party when in government, an amazingly stupid approach given his infamous inability to get anything done as president.

That Fox will simply cease to be a member is also convenient for the party itself, as it will avoid the messy spectacle of a protracted expulsion process. Fox, for his part, will go down in history as the candidate who kicked the PRI out of national power, but then helped it get back in again in 2012. And not very much more.

Source:

Fox duda seguir en el PAN. El Universal, Nov. 26, 2012

Mario Vargas Llosa meets with new Mexico City mayor

Peruvian writer Mario Vargas Llosa met yesterday with Miguel Mancera, where he pronounced that Mexico needs a "modern left."

Not only is Vargas Llosa hardly a man of the left himself - he's a classic liberal, in the Latin American sense of the word (nothing to do with the U.S. use of the term, and far more economically liberal than European liberals) - and lest we forget, just a few weeks ago, he snubbed Mexico's president-elect Enrique Peña Nieto when the latter was on a visit to Spain.

But to the incoming mayor of Mexico City, he did find the time.

Source:
Se necesita izquierda moderna: Vargas Llosa. El Universal, Nov. 26, 2012

OECD to Mexico: Kick teacher union from education secretariat

Gabriela Ramos,directors of the secretary general's office at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), had pretty choice words on Mexico's teacher union SNTE for Mexico's new incoming PRI government:

The union needs to to what obviously all unions do in the countries that have made progress in their education system: to ensure that teachers have the best working conditions, better training, and then leave to authorities the decisions on how to make assessments, performance awards, recruitment of teachers and principals, as well as allocation of positions

Amen. In Mexico, the SNTE and its notorious mafia-like president-for-life Elba Esther Gordillo is the proverbial fox guarding the hen house, taking for itself the liberty to do the tasks Ramos mentions, and doing them extremely poorly.

Will Enrique Peña Nieto do what Carlos Salinas did in 1989, namely to remove a vastly corrupt SNTE head,J oaquín Hernández Galicia, in order to gain some credibility as a reformer?

If so, let's hope the analogy will not be complete: The replacement for "La Quina" turned out to be...  Elba Esther Gordillo.

Source:
Sugiere la OCDE marginar a SNTE de directriz educativa. El Universal, Nov. 15, 2012.

Calderón: "I relieved hunger." No, you didn't.

The delusions of grandeur of Felipe Calderón have grown ever greater the past years. Given that he is only weeks away from leaving office - he has already moved out of the Los Pinos presidential residence as a gesture to the incoming president, Enrique Peña Nieto (as opposed to, say, Vicente Fox, who moved the day before) - we were only right to expect some further messianic pronunciations in these days.

The most recent, just days ago, pronounced in the first person singular:  That he greatly relieved hunger on his watch. He further declared, in all modesty, that "I learned.. that the duty of any public servant is to serve." A breathtaking enlightenment!

As for his "I relieved hunger" claim, here's an excerpt from a coming book from yours truly:

Salvador Escobedo Zoletto, head of the successful poverty-alleviating Oportunidades program, confirmed that the number of poor in Mexico had increased from 42.6 to 47.4 million in the years 2006-2008, or almost 5 million during the first third of the Calderón sexenio. Disturbingly, the number of people who had moved into the “extreme poverty” category had risen from 13.8 to 18.2 million, and the program reported increases in malnourishment and anemia. The figures were particularly shocking as they did not even reflect the full impact of the economic crisis that began in 2009 and lasted almost through 2010. The United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean noted that in the region, only in Mexico and Honduras, which had experienced a coup in 2009, did poverty rise; elsewhere, market-economic growth coupled with expansive social programs had made life better for ever more people. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), which Mexico joined in 1994, instead criticized the Calderón government for growing inequality, lack of investment in human capital, and few social benefits, which in Mexico made up only 7 percent of income after taxes, against an OECD average of 12 percent

Source:
Alivié el dolor del hambre: FCH. El Universal, Oct. 20, 2012.

“En dos años, 4 millones 800 mil pobres más, dice Oportunidades.” Milenio, March 2, 2011
“Cae pobreza en AL.” El Universal, Nov. 30, 2011
“Aumenta en México la desigualdad social.” El Universal, Dec. 6, 2011

October suprise in Mexico's labor reform

With apologies for the cliché of an "October surprise," as the latest developments with Mexico's labor reform have absolutely nothing to do with imminent elections, but what happened when the Senate voted over the reform was in any case quite stunning. I did suggest that we might see a surprise here as well, though I was far from certain the left and right would be able to pull it off, but they did.

In short, the reform sent by president Calderón to the Chamber of deputies had language stripped out of its text that required transparency and democracy in Mexico's unions - notoriously authoritarian, corrupt, and often highly unfriendly to the average worker they claim to represent.

Yet the senate managed quite a feat: Every single one of its 128 senators appeared to vote (a rarity in itself) over reinserting this language, and return the legislation to the Chamber. Here, senators of the ideologically opposed PAN and PRD managed to amass the votes needed, with surprising allies (above all the sole senator of PANAL, the daughter of teacher union boss Elba Esther Gordillo, but also, on some sections, the usually pliant pro-PRI "Green party).

Yet here's the trick: By changing the legislation, rather than voting "yes" or "no," the senators arguably transformed the originally fast-track initiative ("preferred initiative") to merely an ordinary piece of legislation.
(they also seem to have inserted some new lines on collection bargaining, which should pretty much seal the change in character)

Already PRI leader in the Chamber Manlio Fabio Beltrones said there is therefore "no hurry" to pass the reform, again seemingly doing what the PRI has been accused of for years: Dragging its feet over any significant reform, acting as a highly irresponsible opposition party. Yet here is a golden opportunity for president-elect Enrique Peña Nieto to distance himself from the hardliners in his party, and push for the reform to be passed in the Chamber - and demonstrate that he is, as he claims, a true reformer, even when it hurts the clienteles of his own party. The fact that the weathercocks of the PVEM, always eager to suck up to power, broke with the PRI suggests something of this order may be in the works.

The next days should tell.

Source:
Ya no hay prisa para sacar reforma laboral, dice Manlio. El Universal, Oct. 26, 2012
PRI y PVEM titubearon; Panal optó por democracia. El Universal, Oct. 27, 2012

The Labor reform fight: Surprise in store next week?

The Mexican senate will vote on the labor reform next week, and the battle is truly heating up. Despite a persistent drive from the PRI to have the legislation passed just as it is - and as it was passed in the Chamber of Deputies three weeks ago- things may take a very surprising turn in the end.

My own views on the legislation are, in very general terms, that a reform is badly needed, and the original proposal from Calderón had both good and bad parts, yet unfortunately the Chamber essentially voted to remove many of the good parts - democracy and transparency within Mexico's notoriously corrupt and authoritarian PRI-linked (as well, yet to a far lesser extent, PRD-linked ones) unions - while making it far too easy to fire workers, pay starvation wages, and outsource. Yes, one may well argue that in certain instances businesses should be freer to hire and fire, and that this may be a genuine impediment to formalizing jobs. But if one does this without putting any credible social safety net in place in return, it is obvious that the reform will be too slanted towards business interests, and not the workers who, lest we forget, also create the wealth. Even so, the left will not be able to block these parts, but it should work with PAN to pass some other key pieces on union democracy.

The hope is above all that the left will  now act in unison, and avoid the embarrassing spectacle in the Chamber:

On Sept. 29, when the legislation came to a vote, despite having vowed not to undertake any "radical" actions such as storming the congress podium, a group of legislators linked to Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) still resorted to this thug tactic. A few thoughts on this:

* Using physical force to block legislation is about as undemocratic as it gets, and worthy more of blackshirt storm troopers than any political organization that purports to be left wing. No matter how much one opposes  a particular legislation, as a democratically elected legislator you simply don't use violence to stop it. This is not a case of legitimate "civil disobedience" against some authoritarian, colonial power or what not - this is using violence to promote your means when you fail to do so through the democratic channels. In this case, PRD deputies Karen Quiroga and Lourdes Amaya, linked to the "radical" IDN faction in the PRD, violently ripped the microphone from the president of the congressional mesa directiva, and was backed by a handful of other PRD, PT and MC deputies who tried to storm or "take" the congressional dais.

One the one hand, such behavior undermines the image of the Mexican left and presents it as radical, quarrelsome, thuggish, and outright anti-democratic. Even more important, in my view, is that it sets a frightening precedent that would legitimize any force - from the extreme right, for instance - to seek to block i.e. progressive legislation on the grounds that it would against the "will of the people." If the left can openly and violently defy elected democracy by thug actions, why should not the far right, or any other force, feel they have every bit as much right to do so? There is a time for "civil disobedience," yet this is absolutely not it. Love or hate the legislation, it was legitimately voted upon and passed. If you don't accept this, you don't accept democracy.

And the kicker: According to some counts, had the left actually remained united and voted as a block, it could have prevented the entire legislation from being passed in the first place! After protesting, rather than remaining for the vote - which is what these legislators are actually paid to do, that is, to vote - dozens of them simply abandoned the chamber. In addition to lackluster democratic credentials, it illustrates an utter lack of political responsibility.

Jesús Ortega, leader of the social-democratic majority faction in Mexico's largest party on the left, the PRD, noted in an op-ed,

Our "ultra leftists," who "take" tribunes, flee the debate, and who shout instead of responding with arguments, in reality despise the fight in parliament and the electoral path. They feverishly seek to be parliamentarians and when they become so instead of fighting in the battle of ideas - and fighting to win the votes - they withdraw from these, promoting precisely an extremism that, in light of the facts, is tragically useless.

Amen.

They weren't the only to blame, though:
* A handful of PAN deputies as well voted for the legislation in the plenary, even though it came as a "preferred initiative" from president Felipe Calderón, of the PAN.
* A deputy from the "radical" PT, Adolfo Orive, voted in commission against Art. 357, which included union democracy. His vote was decisive in removing this from the final text that was voted upon. Despite disingenuously claiming to have actually voted in favor - the brazenness is simply stunning - the "radical left" legislators in practice ran the errand of PRI, which virulently opposes democracy in the unions.   Afew days later he just happened to be promoted to head the sought-after commission of competitiveness, which he is utterly unqualified for. It reeks of a pay-off.
* The PRD in general backs union democracy, and also wants the government to stop funding unions, instead relying solely on membership dues. This is a Mexican twist that of course stems from the PRI's union advantage, product of its 70 years in power. The PRD also wants to reinstate language removed that regulate work conditions for miners, and prison penalty for owners that neglect worker safety.

(Interestingly, some unions, above all in the PRI-linked CTM, are already calling on the PRI's president-elect Enrique Peña Nieto to block the reform)

Yet then something interesting happened. Despite the many "leaks" in the increasingly pro-PRI Milenio that the senate would simply pass the legislation as it stands - without union democracy and transparency - a few important panistas suggested that PAN would seek to reinstate this language. Finally, PAN president Gustavo Madero confirmed this. The left has also suggested it will try to vote as a block this time. Both PAN and PRD have publicly accused the PRI of exerting enormous pressure on them to not change a comma of the legislation. If united both internally and in unison with the PAN, they have a chance of blocking the legislation, in order to halt it, reinsert the union democracy language (both PAN and the left backs this), and send it back to the Chamber, where, if united they could pass it. This would, however, require an enormous amount of discipline, and, as seen earlier, coherence. I remain cautiously optimistic that they may defy the pessimistic predictions that, come next week, they will fail again.

Source:
PRD lamenta que “tribus” de izquierda abandonaran pleno. El Universal, Sept. 30
Jesús Ortega: El extremismo: Enfermedad senil de la izquierda. Excélsiór, Oct. 2, 2012
AN insiste en incluir democracia sindical. El Universal, Oct. 9, 2012.
Alista PRD más de 150 reservas. El Universal, Oct. 9, 2012.
Proponen a Adolfo Orive para presidir Competitividad. La Jornada, Oct. 11, 2012
Chocan partidos en Senado por sindicatos.  El Universal, Oct. 9, 2012.
Denuncia PAN presión de PRI para no tocar reforma. El Universal, Oct. 10, 2012.
PRI presiona para no mover ley laboral: PRD. El Universal, Oct. 11, 2012.
Pide CTM a EPN frenar la reforma laboral. El Universal, Oct. 12, 2012.
Hay acuerdo en Senado para cambiar ley laboral. El Universal, Oct. 18, 2012
PRI y PAN chocan por ley laboral. El Universal, Oct. 17, 2012

AMLO on violence

AMLO on violence:

I respect highly those who argue that only through armed force can one achieve the changes the country needs, but I do not share this. 

He also rejected to sit down for any talks with president-elect  Enrique Peña Nieto, and advised others to reject dialogue as well.

Noted.

Source:
AMLO rechaza vía armada para cambio. El Universal, Oct. 9, 2012

In Zapata's land, the left's first governor

It may be a small state - it is only beat by Tlaxcala in being Mexico's smallest, and less than 2 million reside there - but for the left, winning the state of Morelos was very important for many reasons beyond the obvious. There is for sure the historical backdrop: Morelos was the land of the great Emiliano Zapata, who launched his agrarian revolutionary movement from the state and died there after a 1919 ambush.

With the left's victory in Morelos, it also won a state it has never held before. The state had already seen alternation in power - PAN ran it from 2000 until recently, in two generally terrible administrations. It is now the left's turn to show it can do better.

A few days ago, Graco Ramírez Garrido Abreu, a veteran on the left and a PRD founder in 1989, finally assumed as governor. While he was at one point the man who recruited AMLO to the PRD - AMLO only ditched the PRI when he failed to become its Tabasco governor candidate - the relationship between "Graco," as he is often referred to, and AMLO is quite abysmal, especially since AMLO's hysterical mobilizations against an imagined privatization of PEMEX in 2008.

With Graco's call for dialogue with Mexico's soon-to-be president, Enrique Peña Nieto - repeated in his inauguration speech - it was hardly a surprise that AMLO did not show up. PRD founder Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas did.

First on his agenda seems to be to carry out what he often brought up during the campaign: A purge of the state's police forces, many of whom are generally regarded to be turning a blind eye, to say the least, to the drug "cartels" * in the state. Next, to "certify" a new force, which he promises to do by the end of 2012.

(Another point: The left governs Mexico City, Morelos, nearby Guerrero, Oaxaca, and finally Tabasco (AMLO loyalist  Arturo Núñez). The geographic concentration is notable in itself , but for governance and inter-state cooperation it may also be a boon. Expect some major pronunciations here soon).


Source:
Graco Ramírez plantea diálogo con Peña Nieto. El Universal, Oct. 2, 2012
Certificar policías este año, ofrece Graco. El Universal, Oct. 10, 2012

* I am happy to note The Economist's style change to put "cartels" in quotation marks. As the news publication duly notes, the murderous drug gangs are hardly price-fixing cartels, but bloody competitors. I think that's a pretty good compromise between keeping a flawed term that is nevertheless in very common use, yet still noting its incorrect usage.

Mexico's labor reform... screeches to a halt

Some quite interesting dynamics regarding president Calderón's proposed Labor Reform / Reforma laboral recently.

A few weeks ago, Calderón sent the reform to the Chamber of Deputies using the "preferred initiative" clause, which given changes to the Constitution a few months ago meant Congress had to act on it before the end of this month, or else it would pass automatically - essentially a "fast-track" provision.

It did. El Universal reports today that the labor reform has come to a screeching halt, where already key provisions have been changed or taken out by the the receiving commission.
Here's a nice graphic on the exact changes, so far:



The PAN has strongly backed the reform, the PRD and other left forces strongly opposed it, with the PRI quite split. PRD and PRI have also found positive aspects of the reform, though they certainly do not agree on what those are.

The PRD agreed to items such as democracy, accountability, and transparency within unions - a rarity in Mexico - but charged it a smokescreen to cover up the reform's real pro-business agenda. Indeed, it is a key component of the reform to loosen labor regulations, making it easier to hire and fire, but it is far from clear what this entails. Reuters noted the reform seeks to "often Mexico's antiquated labor laws and force its trade unions to become more transparent," though this reads a bit more like a government press release than an analysis of the reform. I have yet to find the full proposal online to look at it more closely.

The business council, the CCE, said it approved of the reform "without reservations" but also said it supported looking at proposals from the PRD.

AMLO claimed the reform was part of a deal between Calderón and Peña Nieto, but as usual whenever AMLO makes a declaration, he has little factual evidence for anything. It sure may be, though - and the interesting part is not so much that Peña Nieto did indeed back the reform, but that big sectors of the PRI, including the group around Manlio Fabio Beltrones, opposed sections of it on union transparency, exactly as they know well that these initiatives could greatly undermine PRI strength in the far from democratic unions still attached to the party. PRI unions have, for sure, greatly opposed the reform.

Why did Did Peña Nieto back it openly if he knew PRI would likely oppose it? Is he more of a reformist than imagined, or was it merely a ploy to buy some cover? It will in any case be very interesting to see how the relations will develop between the incoming president and his party, which is a far more heterogeneous coalition than they were last time the PRI held power, 1994-2000.

As for his initiatives, Peña Nieto may find that he will also have a formidable opponent in Congress in his very own party.

Source:
Sindicatos rechazan someterse a auditoría. El Universal, Sept. 3, 2012
PRD alista cambios a reforma laboral. El Universal, Sept. 19, 2012
Empresarios impulsan aval a iniciativa de FCH. El Universal, Sept. 18, 2012
PRD no se levantará de mesa de negociación. El Universal, Sept. 21, 2012
Oposición rechaza la reforma laboral. El Universal, Sept. 18, 2012
Iniciativa traerá frustración y resentimiento: AMLO. El Universal, Sept. 20, 2012
Mexico's Pena Nieto optimistic on labor reform bill. Reuters, Sept. 19, 2012

Vargas Llosa: No return of "perfect dictatorship"

Noted:

Mario Vargas Llosa, who after deeming the PRI regime a "perfect dictatorship" on live national television in 1990 was kicked out of Mexico the very next day, said recently he does not see PRI's return to national power in the form of president-elect Enrique Peña Nieto as a return to said "perfect dictatorship."

The Peruvian (and nationalized Spaniard) writer said he believed PRI would now "play in the diversity of democracy."

He also denounced Calderón's "drug war" as insensata, meaning foolish or even insane, and said he hoped Peña Nieto would change what he termed a strategy of repression:

We must look for alternative measures, such as those being proposed by many. Experiment with legalization, and instead of spending the huge sums on drug trafficking instead invest them in prevention, healing, and rehabilitation

Amen.

Source:
Vargas Llosa descarta regreso de la “dictadura perfecta”. El Universal, Sept. 19, 2012

PAN makes peace with Enrique Peña Nieto

What a big move from the heady days after the July 1, 2012 election, when PAN president Gustavo Madero  claimed there was so much vote buying in the election that PRI winner Enrique Peña Nieto would never be a "legitimate" president, even if "legal."

Last week, 7 PAN governors and 2 governors-elect, as well as Madero himself, met with and rallied around the PRI president-elect, promising to back key initiatives on "shared initiatives."

Madero said PAN would back any "democratizing and modernizing" projects Peña Nieto might launch once in power.

For the PAN at least, whatever happened on July 1, 2012 - we're unlikely to know any time soon, or perhaps at all, given the decision of Mexico's electoral tribunal not to investigate serious claims of vote buying - is long since forgotten.

Source:
Gobernadores de AN dan respaldo a Peña. El Universal, Sept. 13, 2012

On AMLO's departure from the PRD

I'd like to share a few thoughts on the biggest story on the Mexican left these days.

AMLO's departure from the PRD, long in the making, is clearly dramatic for the Mexican left: Any two-time presidential candidate leaving his or her party would be noteworthy in itself, but even more so as AMLO is clearly bent on creating a new, utterly personal party, with which he of course intends to go for 2018 in a third run adn thus compete with the party he was once a founding member of, the PRD. A third presidential run is of course hardly unheard of: Lula ran four times before winning, and so did Salvador Allende in Chile, though notably both were men of their parties, and above all respected the institutional framework within which they were competing. Did any of them ever falsely claim fraud or to have won, without a shred of evidence, proclaim themselves "legitimate" presidents, or reject the democratic institutions of their country, be it elections, electoral courts, or the supreme court?

But there is a larger point to be made, regarding converting AMLO's Morena movement into a party. His spokespersons, and AMLO himself, reiterate that there will in the next months be "consultations" with the base regarding turning Morena into a party or not. It is hard to take this too seriously: For one, "consultations" AMLO-style is text-book plebescitarian, "asking" his followers whether they agree with a decision he has taken long ago. A personal observation: I recall vividly being at the Zócalo in 2011 at the rally where AMLO, as he later claimed, "asked" his followers to go for the 2012 nomination or not, and it was anything but a consultation ("Are we going for 2012? Yeeees... Louder, are we going for 2012? YEEEEES....!). Second, I have little doubt that AMLO wants to turn Morena into a party. He has announced he will hold, from Oct. 10 to Nov. 11, 32 state congresses, and then one national congress Nov. 19-20. What's the hurry? Quite obvious: In order to be allowed to run on the new party's label in 2018, according to the reformed Mexican electoral code, it will need to have been officially formed by this fall.

It is worth stopping to ponder how utterly personalistic AMLO's project is, as there simply has been nothing like this happening on the left in modern times. While Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas contemplated leaving the PRD when he lost the 2006 nomination to AMLO, he in the end did not. Yet AMLO, despite having been PRD's candidate in 2006 and 2012, knows he will not get the candidacy a third time, and therefore has finally split from his old party, like he in turn bolted from the PRI when he failed to get its nomination to be governor of Tabasco. All the "PRI has lost its way, therefore I leave" rhetoric even from that time must be countered with a heavy dose of cynicism: AMLO, like so many others, left the PRI because it did not fit with his personal ambitions.

His decision to form a new party makes it again fully clear how AMLO cares about one project: His own. Elsewhere, in other parties, candidates will fight over positions and some will of course bolt their own party, but on the political left, most nonetheless agree that the party - that is, the project of the party, its political program and plans of action - is far more important than the ambitions of just one man. If AMLO truly cared about any political project beyond his own, he would of course concentrate on using his political capital to strengthen a broader political project with a chance of winning in 2018, with a goal to implement a progressive agenda and not to insist that only AMLO would be capable of doing this. But as these events make abundantly clear, he has no interest in any project that is not led by himself. It is either utterly egoistic, wholly messianic, or both: "No one but me can bring about the change, no one!"

And when his party suggested it would not follow his commands without objection - such as not accepting the election victory of Enrique Peña Nieto, which Morena has declared it will never do - then rather than bending to the party's will, AMLO has finally taken the logical step: If you can't control it, leave it.

His decision will cause enormous turmoil and fluidity on the Mexican left and likely hurt it greatly in the short term, such as upcoming state contests and the 2015 midterms. There is of course also the danger that the  that the left will split in 2018, should AMLO break his earlier promise not to run (he said in 2011 that 2012 would be his last, "out of dignity," and also, as laughable as it appears now, some also believed him when he declared he would retire should he lose this summer). Nonetheless, in the long run, I think AMLO's departure from the PRD, as Marcelo Ebrard characterized it, was not only "predictable and logical," but will also in the end be positive for the Mexican left. As PRD president Zambrano noted, "The PRD is an institution that is much strong than persons and personalities." That includes Andrés Manuel López Obrador.

Source:
Creará AMLO partido; deja frente de izquierda. El Universal, Sept. 10, 2012
Es incongruente, afirman PAN y PRI. El Universal, Sept. 10, 2012
AMLO: sin ruptura, dejo el Movimiento Ciudadano. La Jornada, Sept. 10, 2012
Mensaje íntegro de Andrés Manuel López Obrador en el Zócalo. La Jornada, Sept. 10, 2012
AMLO pone en dilema a la izquierda. El Universal, Sept. 11, 2012
Pide Ebrard crear frente de oposición. El Universal, Sept. 14, 2012
Zambrano descarta “fuga” de militantes. El Universal, Sept. 11, 2012
Salida de AMLO no es una sorpresa: NI. El Universal, Sept. 14, 2012

AMLO leaves party politics

At a rally in the downtown Zócalo today, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) - who does not recognize the win of Enrique Peña Nieto in the 2012 presidential election, nor accept the verdict of Mexico's electoral tribunal confirming this - announced he will separate himself from the parties that carried his presidential candidacy, namely the PRD, PT, and MC. This is, then, a separation from party politics, though he may next turn his social movement MORENA into a party in near future:

In this new stage of my life, I will dedicate all my imagination and work to the cause of the transformation of Mexico. I will do this from the space that MORENA represents, and therefore separate myself from the parties of the Movimiento Progresista [the name of the 2012 coalition].

This is not a rupture; I leave on the best terms. I separate myself from the  the progressive parties with my deepest thanks to their leaders and activists.

Yesterday, the left's governors-elect and PRD, the largest party on the left, declared they will accept Enrique Peña Nieto's victory, however grudgingly - which clearly distinguished them from AMLO. There is rarely such a thing as a coincidence in politics.

Source:
Anuncia AMLO su separación de las izquierdas. Milenio online, Sept. 9, 2012
Gobernadores de izquierda reconocen el triunfo de Peña. El Universal, Sept. 8, 2012

Peña Nieto's transition team - where's the change?

Here's a graphic of Enrique Peña Nieto's transition team:

Forty-six men, 8 women. A couple of analysts have noted the "surprises" of Rosario Robles and Roberto Campa, but I see absolutely nothing either new or interesting or noteworthy of this team, many of whom are likely to join his government. Campa belongs to Elba Esther Gordillo, and Robles is an utter opportunist, a former "radical" leftwing maoist who even became head of the PRD until kicked out after nearly destroying the party by contracting a huge amount of debt, and then allowing her lover to try to blackmail the party. She was part of the plot to block AMLO from running in 2006 with the videoscandals, and has done nothing of importance since then.

The others are standard-fare priístas, most of them representative of the "old" PRI as much as the "new" to which Peña Nieto claimed to belong.

Where's the promised change, plurality, innovation, bold signals? Nothing of that kind discerned at least in Peña Nieto's transition team; let's see how the eventual government will look like in December.


Peña Nieto nombra equipo de transición. El Universal, Sept. 6, 2012.
Sorprende equipo de Peña: expertos. El Universal,  Sept. 6, 2012.
Robles entra al primer círculo. El Universal,  Sept. 5, 2012.

Electoral court rejects annulling Mexico 2012 election

A commission of Mexico's TEPJF electoral court tasked with qualifying the 2012 presidential election announced that it proposes to reject as unfounded the complaints of Movimiento Progresista, the electoral coalition behind Andrés Manuel López Obrador's candidacy, where it demanded the annulment of the election, alleging overspending, undue media coverage,  custom-made fake polling, and other irregularities

Next, the TEPJF will actually vote on the recommendation tomorrow, and next the court will actually vote to ratify (and theoretically, to not) the PRI's victory, but in essence this all but ensures that Enrique Peña Nieto will sometime in the next few days be declared president-elect of Mexico.

Source:
Rechazan magistrados todas las quejas de la izquierda. La Jornada, Aug. 29, 2012
Desecha Trife impugnación. El Universal, Aug. 29, 2012

Peña Nieto's narco photos

The PRI politician Rafael Humberto Celaya Valenzuela was arrested in Spain Friday with other presumed members of the Sinaloa cartel. Here are two photos of Celaya with, as he is referred to in media these days, "the candidate who received the most votes in the presidential election" (pending the tribunal verdict in September): Enrique Peña Nieto.

Don't expect Televisa or Milenio to cover this story.

El Universal

SDP Noticias

Source:

Mexican drug cartel members arrested in Spain. Al Jazeera, Aug. 10, 2012

Castro follows tradition by congratulating Enrique Peña Nieto

Cuban dictator Raúl Castro follows in the tradition - and office - he inherited from brother Fidel:

After the 1988 election, despite widespread and well-documented fraud accusations, Carlos Salinas received congratulatory calls from a few leaders who didn't want to bother awaiting the official certification of the election (after any and all complaints have been dealt with): From Ronald Reagan, and from Cuba's Fidel Castro.

Now, Enrique Peña Nieto has received quite a few more, even though AMLO has announced he will impugn the election, and PRI's victorywill then not be official - and Enrique Peña Nieto the president-elect - until early September. Among the first calls he received was from Barack Obama - and Raúl Castro.

Source:
Mandatarios felicitan a Peña Nieto. El Universal, July 7, 2012.

Left may sweep entire Mexico City

In a remarkable turnaround, given its significant losses in 2009 and talks just months ago of losing it to the PRI, PRD looks set to absolutely sweep Mexico City. We're not only talking of the hyper-popular Miguel Mancera, who will be the city's next mayor and is simply destroying PRI's Beatriz Paredes and PAN's Isabel Miranda de Wallace in the polls.

No, PRD is also set to wrest from PAN two of its bastions, due chiefly to the absolute misrule of PAN's delegation chiefs there:

* In Cuajimalpa, PRD's Rosendo Rodríguez looks set to win, with double-digit leads

* In Miguel Hidalgo, PRD's Víctor Hugo Romo is far ahead of his rivals, given the disastrous administration of PAN's Demetrio Sodi

* While PAN is still ahead, even Benito Juárez is in play, truly a shocker in local politics.

The left has clearly shown it can govern.

While Enrique Peña Nieto will likely be Mexico's next president, he certainly will get no pull from PRI in Mexico City; indeed, Paredes' candidacy was meant to do so, yet her campaign posters are now being quietly removed in favor of those of Peña, as she is ironically pulling down his Mexico City vote instead.

And with a Peña Nieto presidency, it will be ever more important to maintain Mexico City as a strong counterweight.

Sources:

PAN toma ventaja en la Benito Juárez. El Universal, June 7, 2012.

PRD toma delantera en Cuajimalpa. El Universal, June 9, 2012. 

Urge a Cuajimalpa movilidad: Mancera. El Universal, June 11, 2012.

Ventaja de PRD en M. Hidalgo. El Universal, June 21, 2012.

Reforma shock poll: AMLO only 7 points behind

With apologies for the "shock" usage here, but I don't really know what else to call this:

Reforma newspaper, a center-right leaning newspaper with a remarkably well developed polling team, has AMLO at 34, against 38 of Enrique Peña Nieto. 

Only four points away! The poll reflects a growth of 7 percent for AMLO from the last Reforma poll, taken April 19-22. The most recent poll was taken May 24-27. Other polls on the ADN "poll of polls" also show AMLO rising and EPN diving. 

Source:

Encuesta Reforma: López Obrador a 4 puntos de Peña. ADN Polìtico, May 31, 2012.

Intellectuals with Peña Nieto

Interesting array of intellectuals and other leaders who appear to have lined up with Enrique Peña Nieto, judging by those attending an even/-lauding his "responses" to 37 "questions" they had written to the PRI presidential candidate

* Fernando Gómez Mont, former Interior Secretary who resigned from his post and then his party in protest over the 2010 PAN-PRD alliances
* Héctor Aguilar Camín, historian and Televisa personality
* Cecilia Soto, former presidential candidate for PT
* Rafael Tovar y de Teresa, historian
* Alejandro Martí, businessman and anti-kidnapping movement leader
* Ángeles Mastretta, writer

It is perhaps more notable how very few of Mexico's writers and intellectuals, organic or otherwise, have lined up with the PRI candidate.

Source:

Peña presenta decálogo por "presidencia democrática. El Universal, May 22, 2012.

Priísta defiende su formación demócrata. El Universal, May 22, 2012.