Wednesday, July 28, 2010

Zacatecas damage assessment: PRD´s electoral disaster on July 4th

PRD certainly had a rather brutal defeat in Zacatecas, going from 46.40 percent to 24.6 percent - a pretty stunning drop.

Why did this happen, and what can the PRD learn from this?
The most important lesson, as the PRD seems to acknowledge, is that PRI-style dedazos will backfire drastically. The PRD's candidate was seen as an imposition by Governor Amalia Garcia, whose lackluster administration has been a deep disappointment, in particularly for those who saw her as a possible candidate for the presidency.

(We´ll talk about the damage done by former priísta, former perredista, and now ardent petista, Senator Ricardo Monreal later).

Yet also it shows the poor party loyalty from many of the nominal perredistas who bailed ship and actually supported the PRI candidate (himself a former perredista!), such as Raymundo Càrdenas.
It is understandable that there will be disaffection among the party base and elite under such circumstances. But it nonetheless illustrates the amazing opportunism among even long-time PRD cadres, who jump ship to join their old archenemy PRI.
What is to be done?

So much for internal pacts of piece: Padierna wants Ortega out.

Dolores Padierna, nominal head of the PRD corriente Izquierda Democrática Nacional, and wife of the disgraced money-stuffer René Bejarano, for the umpteenth time demands Ortega´s resignation, despite that the PRD, under his lead, has not only withstood excessive friendly fire from AMLO, who campaigned against the PRD in 2009 (preceded by months-long debacle where losing candidate Alejandro Encinas refused to accept Ortega's victory), but managed to do what appeared impossible, overthrowing the 8-decades old authoritarian state governments of Oaxaca, Puebla, and Sinaloa. 


But now that her corriente apparently won quite a few municipalities and local deputies, she now clamors again for Ortega's head, arguing that her faction is now the strongest within the PRD. 


Miguel Borbosa, national coordinator of Nueva Iqzuierda, responded in kind: If you don't shut up, we will use our 2/3 majority in the PRD national council to kick you off the PRD's National Political Commission (not to be confused with the national secretariat, formerly known as the CEN).


More from La Jornada here. 


To be continued...

On AMLO jumping the gun

Mexico State Governor Enrique Peña Nieto argues AMLO is "overwhelmed" and that he is ahead of himself in terms of declaring his candidacy.  


The hipocricy slaps you in the face, given Peña Nieto's excessive promotion of himself, spending tens of millions of public money to tote his "achievements" as a governor, ahead of his official declaration as a candidate, sure as hell to come next year. 

Hector Tejonar, for example, has a very critical commentary in Milenio that directly deals with this subject, acusing the IFE on going soft on Peña Nieto´s self promotion.

It seems to me the criticism is excessive - the phenomenon of self promotion disguised a news is more of a loophole, and IFE doesn´t make the rules, only uphold them - but it adds fuel to the fire to AMLO, who defends his destape with the argument that three months of precampaigning is not enough given Peña Nieto´s media promotion. 
(AMLO also says he will seek the PRD candidacy "when the moment comes," and that it doesn´t worry  him that the PRD leadership doesn´t support him, as he has the support of the party masses. 


Again, it´s important to step back and assess AMLO's modus operandi:
- The law on precampaigning I realize is only three months. Yet because Peña Nieto is using public funds to promote himself, I have no other choice, and will willingly brake the law. 
- And, as noted earlier, while I promised to stick to the pact with PRD/PT/Convergencia, I just broke that too because otherwise Peña Nieto would have too much of an advantage 


What is one to make of this reasoning? Is this is a man one should trust the presidency with?

Another approach might be to launch a formal and extensive complaint to IFE, and onward to TEPJF, regarding Peña Nieto´s transgressions. But what does AMLO do? The other guy is breaking the law, so why the hell should I not. And this is the man who spoke of a moral reawakening, or something of that sorts, on Sunday at the Zócalo?


PAN Senator Gustavo Madero  says AMLO´s candidacy proclamation is "straining" the political environment. PRD Vice Coordinator Guadalupe Actosta Naranjo notes that should decide once and for all whether he will actually respect the outcome of the polls (as a means of choosing the left presidential candidate) or not. I couldn't agree more - but I really wonder if the highly astute Acosta Naranjo actually thinks there is any doubt that AMLO will break it, should he not be the frontrunner.