Mexico 2012 poll for PAN's candidate: Big MO for Josefina Vázquez Mota

The poll comes from Gabinete de Comunicación Estratégica, a polling company I must admit I do not fully trust to be devoid of political considerations, but here it is regardless: Josefina Vázquez Mota now has apparently majority support within the PAN to be her party's presidential nominee, and the momentum. Cordero is only growing very slowly, and Creel appears to have peaked:

From Milenio 

Ebrard proposes "coalition government"

Marcelo Ebrard yesterday said that Mexico needs a constitutional reform so that a coalition government is possible.

This is highly relevant, but begs the question(s): What exactly does he have in mind?
A parliamentary regime? A semi-presidential regime?
Ebrard suggests "to separate the head of state from chief of government," which sounds very much like a variation of one of these two regimes. Does it also refer to a coalition government of PRD-PAN?

He also speaks of the need for legislative majorities. Indeed, no governing party has had a majority in Congress since 1997. Does that mean a more formalized legislative alliance? A common program, common legislative slates?

Hopefully more is to come here, as this is potentially really significant stuff.

AMLO's Wilson Center appearance: A wasted opportunity

I watched AMLO's presentation at the Wilson Center in DC today, via Web cast, and can't say I'm too impressed. As expected, the speech was very general in character and contained nothing new - summaries can soon be found elsewhere. Two quick commentaries on what bothered me in particular.

1) One the one hand, AMLO at times clearly states what he is "going to do" - as president. One act will be to get rid of Elba Esther Gordillo as head of the teachers union, building refineries, etc. Great - and applause followed. But almost in the next breath, when confronted by an El Universal reporter who point out that this sounds like his official presentation of his campaign platform, AMLO is very quick to respond that, oh no, this is not a campaign act at all, he is merely presenting the program of MORENA, his civil association. He again demonstrates that the laws that bind other candidates simply do not apply do him.

2) The Q & A was also a completely wasted opportunity. The quality of the questions left much to be desired (and Peter Hakim took far too long to get to his point, which I and it seems AMLO as well lost) - and the last "question" was particularly embarrassing, as some academic, rather than using the important occasion to ask a concrete question, wasted the privilege by just expressing how she is honored to be with AMLO. But even those questions that did have some nutritional content and were quite concrete, had no effect on AMLO rather than eliciting long-winded, meandering banal generalities. "Will you pact with narcos?" "What the country needs is education, values, spiritual values, bla bla bla."

Given that AMLO was quite concrete earlier when he spelled out what he would do, it seems to me that it is not for fear of being accused of campaigning that he cannot give a straight reply to any concrete questions, but rather, when called out in front of an audience, he simply does not have any good answers.

Javier Sicilia, to his discredit, dismisses the next elections

Here is where we part: Poet, writer, and activist Javier Sicilia, head of the Movimiento por la Paz con Justicia y Dignidad, dismissed the upcoming national elections as an "ignominy," or a disgrace, as no parties are listening to the citizenry, and so on.

Say what you want about Mexico's parties - or those of any country - but what on earth do we have for alternatives to electoral democracy? Dismissing elections beforehand simply because you reject the existing party options - or that the parties are not immediately accepting your agenda - is irresponsible, pure and simple.

I accept that Sicilia has a right to dismiss all the parties and the upcoming national elections in Mexico.

I also have a right to dismiss that message.

Wife of murdered Guerrero federal deputy accuses mayor

Lucía Leyva Rojas, widow of the murdered PRI deputy  Moisés Villanueva de la Luz, all but accused mayor Willy Reyes Ramos of Tlapa de Comonfort of being behind the murder.

Granted there is no concrete evidence and everything is guilty until proven, but Reyes doesn't exactly inspire too much confidence or empathy: His response, rather than saying something along the lines of "I understand she is hurting and want to find the guilty, but it is not me," etc, has instead responded by asking the authorities to investigate the next-of-kin, meaning Villanueva's and his murdered driver's widow.

Not exactly a class act.

Mario Vargas Llosa reloaded: "detested and detestable PRI"

Mario Vargas Llosa's famous description of the PRI as a "perfect dictatorship" live on Televisa in 1990 - which led to the immediate end of his visit to Mexico and the great embarrassment of the authoritarian regime, has now been followed by a sequel, of sorts:

The Peruvian writer warned recently that Calderón's offensive against the narcos has failed, and that it may lead to the return of the "detested and detestable PRI."

The statement has, of course, not fallen well with the PRI. One measured response came from presidential hopeful (of sorts) Manlio Fabio Beltrones, who said Varga Llhosa doesn't know Mexico, and hadn't been too successful as a politician himself. Ouch. Senator Francisco Arroyo for his part dismissed the writer as an "old man of the Right."

PRI's Political Council (equivalent of party congress) is currently meeting, and doing everything possible to give the impression of unity - including the obligatory Beltrones-Peña Nieto handshake-hug.

The Council also notably decided that PRI´s 2012 presidential candidate will be decided in an open primary.

Who do you trust in Mexico? Family first, parties at bottom

Graphic from Milenio:

Milenio

Sad figures for many institutions, above all political parties, which are found at the bottom.

I found this part quite entertaining, though. (from the article on the study):

"The survey was also an exercise in associating political parties with songs, animals, and popular sayings. PRI was ranked as the loyal dog, the hardworking ant, fighting cock, and the sly fox, as well as the popular saying, "el que no tranza no avanza" (roughly, If you don't cheat, you won't get ahead), as well as the line from the song of El Rey, "with money and without money I always do what I want."

PAN was placed with the song  Contigo Aprendí, while PRD was referred to as a parrot "that talks without knowing what it says," and with the popular saying, “ni picha ni cacha ni deja batear” (or very roughly, neither helps nor gets out of the way)."